Author Topic: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?  (Read 536 times)

RusticBohemian

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 74
Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« on: April 30, 2021, 07:30:32 AM »
I'm eying a July 22nd flight to Europe.

The price has risen over the last week by $500. Should I buy now assuming it will only keep rising, or is there a good chance it will fall again? Is there any way to find data on what has happened historically?

Adventine

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1776
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Memphis, USA
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2021, 07:59:17 AM »
The pandemic has messed up historical trends, but Google Flights is a pretty good tool.

I've attached two screenshots of the data you can get, using a sample flight from New York to Paris.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4410
  • Age: 38
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2021, 08:04:18 AM »
July is way out - I'd bet it will fall at some point between now and then, though of course, nothing is certain. Of course if the price is acceptable to you as it is, there's a lot of value in buying the tickets and it being done in your mind.

Jouer

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 480
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2021, 10:30:24 AM »
I suspect that the more things open up, the higher the prices will be for flights, rentals, events, etc. Supply and demand and all that. And there's gonna be a ton of demand.

pdxvandal

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 385
  • Location: Earth
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2021, 10:40:35 AM »
Booked a trip to Mexico in January for Turkey Break. Today, those same non-stop flights are almost double the price.

reeshau

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1218
  • Location: Houston, TX
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2021, 11:55:29 AM »
There is no functioning market for international flights.  A significant amount of the global fleet is still grounded.  This is in total contrast to the domestic market, in which the fleet and crew are being reactivated.

Airfares normally vary because the airlines use yield-management software that balances remaining capacity vs. price history.  If a flight gets full, prices go up.  If a flight gets full really fast, you can put in a bigger plane or add a flight, and capture that demand.  All that has been out the window for a year; flights were performed to 1) maintain critical infrastructure, 2) move cargo 3) maintain flight crew certification.  As I said above, "normal" is expected to be coming back for the summer--only for domestic flights.  The US still disallows non-citizens to enter.  Europe's policy for vaccinated Americans will add some demand, but no family is fully vaccinated, since nobody under 16 is.  And no vaccinated Europeans are welcome in the US.  (watch for this, but it's getting to be too late for summer plans to be meaningful)

So, pandemic rules are still in effect for international flights, and will be until coordinated, or at least bilateral, travel rules are enacted.  I flew back to the US last May, and was happy to pay "full" coach fair.  Most of the air crews for widebodies have been grounded for a year.  After 3 months, they need to go through re-training to get recertified, which takes months.  The planes also need extensive maintenance to be ready to fly, and those facilities will become a bottleneck.  Given the publicity around the European vaccination policy, get your ticket now while you can, as the airlines' ability to adjust up for demand will be very, very limited.

Get your deals once you are there.  I'm sure every hotel, restaurant, vendor, and venue will be very welcoming and grateful.

trollwithamustache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 929
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2021, 12:31:11 PM »
since "everyone knows" the pandemic is over.... I can't see it getting cheaper. People are going to want to travel this summer.

Eurotexan

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 183
  • Location: Texas
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2021, 09:06:49 PM »
We have flights booked to London for July 22. We booked them about 2 months ago, jumped on a Google alert one day. I still have the alert and the prices have gone up steadily since then. Knowing this, my advise is to book sooner rather than later.

dodojojo

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 751
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2021, 06:34:59 PM »
In mid March, there were extraordinarily low prices from east coast to LAX in May.  I didn't book because I wanted to wait until I got my first vaccine shot.  Prices inched up in the meantime. After my first shot, I was ready to buy but Kayak advised to wait as their data scientists saw prices falling.  In April, prices still going up and Kayak still advising to hold off.  In parallel, the AA points needed for same/similar trip also were going up.  I chickened out and booked the trip with points.  I haven't checked since and maybe prices have since decreased, but every day I was checking in early April, the price kept going up.

Those $125 round trip to LAX though?  Amazing, I've never seen a price that low in the 2 decades I've been on the east coast.

Malcat

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5802
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2021, 08:51:07 PM »
Hard to say. I flew back in January and flights were actually more expensive because there were so few of them. Demand was low, but supply was lower. There were almost no empty seats on any of my 4 flights.

It's a gamble.

If it's a flight you need to take and you can't afford to pay more. If you can afford the fee now, just book it and secure a fee you can afford.

If you can easily afford more and feel like holding out to see if it drops, then take the gamble and see if you win.

Is the flight cost currently significantly lower than pre-pandemic costs? If yes, then I would be inclined to lock in the price.

If it's currently much higher than pre-pandemic, then I would gamble that it will lower back more towards normal as they add more flights.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2021, 08:52:55 PM by Malcat »

UnleashHell

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8459
  • Age: 53
  • Location: Florida
  • Chapter IV - A New ... er.. something
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2021, 03:47:16 AM »
I think prices may increase in July.
I just had to book a flight to europe and the prices are high for may then dropping as you get further on. The airlines are adding flights as they see restrictions lift and I think July will get more expensive as people start to book. compared to previous years the flight prices seem ok as long as you are reasonable.
I booked the early expensive flight as I have to travel. I'd book yours now if I was in your shoes.

Rdy2Fire

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 305
Re: Will airline prices only keep rising for a July 22nd flight?
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2021, 07:50:17 AM »
Prices WILL definitely rise especially for Europe in the summer when/if it all opens up. Airlines will be adding flights but Europe in the summer is always more pricey, demand will be up and the amount of routes still won't be back to pre-covid.

I have been looking at flights myself and I booked. My reasoning was simply the above and I had been testing the pricing by putting flights on hold and checking before the expiration for changes. In both cases (I booked more than 1 trip) the prices went up significantly, 76% and the other about 52% even if I adjusted days which I had been doing as well.

My suggestion is book it if BUT make sure you DO NOT book a basic economy ticket since there will be changes/fees restrictions. Currently most major airlines still have more lose restrictions on all other tickets so, like in my case, if the world isn't open or I need to cancel I get a full credit good for a year. Given that I felt the gamble was minimal as I know, worse case, I'll be able to use that credit in the future.