Author Topic: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice  (Read 1819 times)

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« on: November 19, 2023, 01:54:39 PM »
Mustachians - I need some math help.

My husband passed away 4 months ago and I am just getting around to looking at some of his pension paperwork (due in a few days). Dealing with muddled widow brain so cannot process/do math like normal.

I have to decide between:
- Immediate pension of $565.39/mo at age 44.
- deferred pension of $1485.90/mo starting age 65
- Lump sum of $162,165.79 (not interested as I consider a COLA pension a nice safety net - this is a small part of our portfolio).

I FIREd 5 years ago and if I choose immediate , it means less I have to withdraw from investments (more time for money to grow). That said it is a piddly $6784 a year(Current expenses $60-70k/yr).

If I wait (20 years!) until 65, I would get a COLA adjusted $18k a year (my FIRE math was based on DH getting a mere $4k/yr from this pension). Along with mine and my late husband’s retirement benefits/savings that I expect after 60/65, should be enough to cover basic bills.

Notes
- this pension is considered well-funded with no concerns for its future

- I am Canadian with free healthcare and many subsidies depend on low reported income.

- both pensions are for my lifetime (ETA: and both are COLA adjusted). If I pass away before receiving 5 yrs of benefits, the difference will be paid in lump sum to my beneficiary.

- If I defer to 65 but pass before, the value is paid in lump sum to my beneficiary


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: November 20, 2023, 12:47:22 PM by elaine amj »

reeshau

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3872
  • Location: Houston, TX Former locations: Detroit, Indianapolis, Dublin
  • FIRE'd Jan 2020
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2023, 03:13:27 PM »
My condolences on your situation.  It is both understandable and ridiculous that your husband's organization is forcing significant, irreversible decisions on you so quickly.

With 20 years to grow, at a 10% long-term average return, the lump sum would double roughly 3 times (every 7 years) so would be approximately $1.2M.  (So, $48k per year by the 4% rule, plus inflation adjustments)  Nothing wrong with having an annuity, but that's the apples to apples comparison vs. $18k per year.  Clearly the 4% rule would weigh in favor of the lump sum, as usually happens since it doesn't come with a 3rd party guarantee.  But you already living with that situation.  If you wanted to, you could also take the money at that time and buy an immediate annuity with COLA.

In the US, a pension rollover would be in a pre-tax IRA.  The good and bad of that is that this would probably lead to significant required minimum distributions.  I don't know the Canadian situation.

You mention beneficiaries, so that is another factor.  Yes, the lump sum would be given to them if you pass early, but is the current value the fixed value they might get, or will it grow?  That would be a significant difference for your estate.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2023, 03:16:05 PM by reeshau »

Freedomin5

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7248
    • FIRE Countdown
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2023, 03:25:45 PM »
Lump sum will give you the most money at 65. At a conservative 6% interest rate, it would become $551,290 after 21 years. At 4% SWR, that would be $22,051 per year.

The difference between deferred and immediate is about $11,040 a year.

The question is whether the $6784 you don’t have to withdraw per year will give you more than $11,040 when you’re 64. Using a future value calculator, with a $6784 annual contribution and 6% interest rate, you get a total value of 287,589 at the end of 21 years (when you’re 65). At 4% SWR, that generates $11,503.

So taking pension now and saving that $6784 is the second best option, based on your assumptions.

At least according to my math. Would be helpful to get a few more opinions, as I am not 100% confident in my math.

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2023, 04:42:16 PM »
Hmmm…one missing part of the math is COLA.

So the $18k/year will increase by 75% of the year over year increase to the Consumer Price Index (annual max of 8%).

In the past, I’ve taken the 6% return rate and reduced it by 2% to take inflation into account. Of course, we are in a high inflation environment right now.

Also, I should add that they gave me 3 months to look this paperwork over. I had to go across the world to spend a couple of months with my ailing father. Just got home 2.5 weeks ago and finally tackled my mail and realized the form is due in 5 days - ack!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: November 19, 2023, 04:43:50 PM by elaine amj »

deborah

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 15913
  • Age: 15
  • Location: Australia or another awesome area
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2023, 05:10:08 PM »
In the 80s and 90s when there was high inflation, COLA went up more quickly than my shares. No idea what will happen this time. However, I have a small pension with COLA, and over the past few years it’s beaten both my portfolio and wages growth here. Having a pension adds to the diversity of my income.

MDM

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11692
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2023, 08:19:04 PM »
Condolences to you and your family.

It is a tough choice because if you assume the pension is guaranteed then it's apples v. oranges to compare the pension amount with a lump sum growth that assumes a significant stock investment.

If you can use Excel, the 'Misc. calcs' tab in the case study spreadsheet allows you to do some comparisons based on what you assume for growth rates and life expectancy.

Rows 73-94 of that tab give three comparisons of your deferred pension to your lump sum.  The first two assume no COLA on lump sump withdrawals so ignore those.  The third assumes your withdrawals from the lump sum increase by 2.5%/yr (cell C91) and last for 30 years (cell C88).

Much depends on what you get for "i" and "L" in the table below.
Three ways to evaluate "pension now"  vs. "pension later"
Compare pension payment promised at the later time to either
  - the "Interest generated by Future Value (FV) of the lump sum" (FV principal is not touched), or
  - the "Constant withdrawal of FV over time L" (principal goes to zero), or
  - "Trinity-style withdrawal of FV over time L" (annually inflated spending; principal -> zero)
Lump sum nowPV$162166
Payment starting nowPmt_now0$/payment
Interest ratei5.0%/yr
number of years until annuity beginsn21yr
number of payments/yearfreq12/yr
When payments are made for each ntype00 = at end, 1 = at start
Future ValueFV$451011
Interest generated by Future ValueFV(i,n,P) * i1879$/payment
Longevity of future annuityL30yr
Constant withdrawal of FV over time LPmt_future2421$/payment
Spending growth rate (e.g., CPI)g2.50%/yr
First year (of 30) Trinity-style withdrawalW(FV,L,i,g)21414$/yr
1785$/payment


The chart below compares your immediate pension to your lump sum, using 2.5%/yr (cell B105 on that tab) for a COLA. 



Don't know if that helps or just muddies the water...?

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2023, 09:22:06 PM »
Condolences to you and your family.

It is a tough choice because if you assume the pension is guaranteed then it's apples v. oranges to compare the pension amount with a lump sum growth that assumes a significant stock investment.

Don't know if that helps or just muddies the water...?
Studied the chart, but unfortunately not able to interpret it to understand what it means for my present situation. Widow brain :(

If it helps, this is about a 10% bonus to my portfolio. So while it is a nice bonus, it will not make up the bulk of my income.

I am pretty sure I won’t go lump sum with this. Just trying to figure out if I should take it now or wait until 65.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

reeshau

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3872
  • Location: Houston, TX Former locations: Detroit, Indianapolis, Dublin
  • FIRE'd Jan 2020
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2023, 09:41:35 PM »
Present value aside, deferring the pension allows it to provide a stronger level of "longevity insurance."  Of course, it's not enough on its own.  But if some significant misfortune happens to you in the next 20 years, there it would be.  And, you mentioned you have an out in case something happens to you, and you don't make it there.

In the case of the two pension options only, I'd take the deferred one.

Adventine

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2438
  • Location: Memphis, USA
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2023, 10:13:28 PM »
I don't have much to add about the calculations. Just wanted to say I'm sorry for your loss.

MDM

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11692
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2023, 11:00:35 PM »
Condolences to you and your family.

It is a tough choice because if you assume the pension is guaranteed then it's apples v. oranges to compare the pension amount with a lump sum growth that assumes a significant stock investment.

Don't know if that helps or just muddies the water...?
Studied the chart, but unfortunately not able to interpret it to understand what it means for my present situation. Widow brain :(
On the chart if you think you will be above and to the left of the orange curve, you would take the immediate annuity, and if below and to the right of the orange curve you would take the lump sump.  That comparison is between the lump sum and the immediate annuity only - don't have a similar pre-configured chart for lump sum vs. deferred annuity.

Above the chart, the number of interest is the $21,414/yr that your lump sum earning 5.5%/yr would allow you to withdraw at age 65, and then continue withdrawing that much increased by 2% each year for 30 years.

Flipping a three-sided coin to choose among the lump sum, immediate annuity, or deferred annuity might be as likely to give you the best choice in hindsight as a lot of number crunching.  If you already know you don't want the lump sum, then any coin will do.  Good luck no matter what you choose!

ToTheMoon

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Pencil Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 876
  • Location: BC
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2023, 07:10:57 AM »
If you don't want to take the lump sum and invest it according to your AA, then I vote wait until 65.

You don't need it now, and knowing you have that coming for future unknowns would be a great security blanket. Also, it will start coming in around the time your kids may be settled and in the squeeze period of their lives.

When those funds start rolling in, maybe you can use them to help ease the burden of mega-mortgages, or use them for big family trips with grand-babies, or set up to be a large donor at your local food bank etc. Whatever will bring you joy. :)

BNgarden

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 625
  • Location: Alberta
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2023, 09:15:34 AM »
FWIW, I had a buy-out option on a DB pension plan as the company changed to a DC plan, and I was a certain age so they had to offer it.  (I am also Cdn.)

AFAIK, all options offered are (need to be by law) actuarially similar? 

In my case, I opted for an immediate monthly pension as it added diversity of pension managers and we were already living on what we calculated to be our lifetime sustainable amount (allowing for COLA increases).  For us too, it's not a large amount (similar proportion of the yearly spend as you have noted on yours).

It wasn't clear if your immediate pension option is also COLA adjusted?  It's a period of fairly high (normal?) interest rates so this could be favorable as well.

I do think our choice was a conservative one.  I am was 10 years older at the decision point though, so that may have affected our choice; retirement was not going to be so very early though I was in the throes of choosing my exit timing.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2023, 09:17:46 AM by BNgarden »

Laura33

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3924
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2023, 09:46:04 AM »
First, I am so sorry that you are dealing with this, particularly with your other family challenges at the same time.  I helped my mom manage pension and such after my stepdad's death, so I know up-close-and-personally how hard that kind of loss can make even simple decisions for even very smart people.  My condolences. 

Here is one way to think of it:

Do you need the money now?  If you need the money now, that changes the calculus, and I'd vote for taking the cash and investing it.  If you don't need the money now, then I think it is a good idea to view this as more of a safety net.

What is your family/health history?  If it suggests that you may live a good long time, I like the idea of waiting to take it at 65, because it makes a very nice safety net.  If your expenses are around $60K, then that pension will cover almost 1/3 of your needs when you start receiving payments (because COLA).  That's a nice safety net to have.

On the other hand, if your family/health history suggests you might not have a super-long lifespan, you could take it now and invest the $500 or so.  That guarantees you personally get some value out of the pension (it's great that they pay out to your heirs, but you matter more).  Plus, as long as the $500/mo. is also COLA-protected, that's a decent way to split the difference between having some long-term safety net vs. getting immediate growth from the $$. 

FWIW:  any decision you make will work out well.  I strongly suspect, as someone else noted, that the three options are actuarily the same.  So there's no "wrong" decision -- just different versions of better.

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2023, 11:20:44 PM »
Thanks everyone - it makes such a difference to be able to turn to so many Mustachians for smart, levelheaded advice.

I like the reassurance that on a math level, immediate vs deferred is about the same (based on average life expectancies). I am pretty average I guess. Averagely nonsmoker female with no medical issues and some heart disease amongst my father and uncles/aunts. Oh and my father (75) has lymphoma now. So there is some cancer in the family.

Been weighing pros and cons and flip flopping a lot.

I did realize if I lump sum it, about $50k of the $160k will disappear in taxes. That will definitely reduce my return. Because of my generally low income, taking it as a monthly pension will hopefully result in lower taxes than that.

Taxes aside, if I take it now, I’ll get to actually use it if I don’t live as long as anticipated. Because I am the surviving spouse, I won’t have all that nice joint right of survivorship options. If I die 6 years after receiving it, I’ll only have gotten $34k - ack!

Wait - this might be a much stronger argument for sucking it up - paying the taxes, and getting the lump sum. I really really like the security of a COLA pension…but it sure sounds less appealing as the surviving spouse with no way to leave anything to my heirs.

Hey, another thought just hit me. On another thread, a Mustachian recommended buying a term life policy with the pension money. If I use $50 of that $500/mo, I could get a $300k term life policy that would more than cover any “loss” of the pension. That way I get security for myself and yet “insure” the pension.

I did also inherit a $180k IRA as well and am debating withdrawing in small chunks every year for the next 40 years or turning it into my own IRA and waiting until somewhere between 60 - 73. For this one, I may wait until I am old as this one is not too difficult for my heirs to inherit. That will balance the risk of taking the other 2 small pensions immediately.

Thoughts about my thoughts? Or do I have giant swiss cheese holes everywhere?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: November 21, 2023, 11:26:23 PM by elaine amj »

MDM

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11692
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2023, 11:40:32 PM »
In the US, a pension rollover would be in a pre-tax IRA.  ...  I don't know the Canadian situation.
I did realize if I lump sum it, about $50k of the $160k will disappear in taxes.

That changes things.  All the previous tables and charts assumed that there would be no immediate tax on taking the lump sum, and that pension payments and lump sum withdrawals would be taxed identically.

If that is not how it works in Canada, then different math is needed....

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2023, 07:13:27 AM »
I just talked to the pension peeps and no rush on the decision. If I want the lump sum before the end of the year (as I have only $6-10k in income this year), I have until end of Nov to submit paperwork.

Trying to understand tax implications on lump sum. I discovered a “portion” (haven’t found out what this amount would be) can be transferred to a LIRA (I think it is like a 401k and I wait until I am old to withdraw) and the rest is taxable.

To be honest, even more confused than ever. Especially when I consider the tax implications of all the different income streams. DH and I should have probably done more estate planning but I believed the amounts were so small as not to worry about. It’s adding up to be a bit more than I expected (a good problem lol). I don’t care if I am not totally optimized but I don’t want to shoot myself in the foot either.

I also discovered that there is a pension tax credit for pension income of a few thousand a year. So a pension payout + buying term life insurance 5 years from now sounds like a good idea.

I think I may need to sit with someone one on one to do all this math. A fee-based one may work best. What type do I need? A financial advisor? A tax consultant? Pretty clueless here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Laura33

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3924
  • Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2023, 07:45:27 AM »
Yeah, sounds like you need an accountant to walk you through the tax effects of the various options.  Best of luck, and I'm glad you at least have more time to work through it all.

BNgarden

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 625
  • Location: Alberta
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2023, 07:48:35 AM »
I believe the pension income tax credit is age-restricted (seems to be 55 or older)?

I'd look for a tax accountant with a focus on retirement planning.  Not sure how plentiful / easy to find those might be.

With the portfolio figures you've noted earlier, I'd be more concerned with smoothing income over life and ensuring no surprise tax events as you age / more income sources come into play. I didn't pay close attention to the specific holdings, but it may mean converting any RSP to RIF early (minimum withdrawals are not high when younger), and 'topping up to bracket' re income in a year, and moving funds into TFSAs if not fully funded.

... I don’t care if I am not totally optimized but I don’t want to shoot myself in the foot either. ...

Given this, I think someone who can lay out a couple of key trade-offs / questions and then basically structure things to meet your needs can help you choose a "set it and forget it" option, at least between major events (choice of when to access CPP / OAS etc, in light of survivor benefits).

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2023, 11:31:11 AM »
I believe the pension income tax credit is age-restricted (seems to be 55 or older)?

I'd look for a tax accountant with a focus on retirement planning.  Not sure how plentiful / easy to find those might be.

With the portfolio figures you've noted earlier, I'd be more concerned with smoothing income over life and ensuring no surprise tax events as you age / more income sources come into play. I didn't pay close attention to the specific holdings, but it may mean converting any RSP to RIF early (minimum withdrawals are not high when younger), and 'topping up to bracket' re income in a year, and moving funds into TFSAs if not fully funded.

... I don’t care if I am not totally optimized but I don’t want to shoot myself in the foot either. ...

Given this, I think someone who can lay out a couple of key trade-offs / questions and then basically structure things to meet your needs can help you choose a "set it and forget it" option, at least between major events (choice of when to access CPP / OAS etc, in light of survivor benefits).

Thank you so much for this! It gives me a framework of the right questions to ask as I am getting rather confused the more I research into all this.

I definitely want to “set it and forget it”.

Now that all our savings are concentrated on just me instead of between both DH and I, there are additional complexities with my retirement planning, especially the tax and subsidies implications through the next 40+ years.

There is:
- DH’s US pension (COLA)
- DH’s US IRA
- DH’s US Social Security (will disappear if I remarry before 60)
- DH’s Canadian pension (COLA)
- DH’s Canadian CPP (like SS)
- DH’s Canadian RRSP (which will roll into mine)
- My RRSP
- My CPP

Ack - I think I definitely need some help. It’s feeling beyond my pay grade.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MDM

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11692
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2023, 11:34:02 AM »
Might be worth asking "what are my pension rollover options?" (or something like that) in the Canada Discussion sub-forum, in hopes of attracting comments from those more familiar with Canadian tax law.

elaine amj

  • CM*TO 2024 Attendees
  • Walrus Stache
  • *
  • Posts: 5598
  • Location: Ontario
Re: Widow’s pension - need math help and advice
« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2023, 12:37:06 PM »
Might be worth asking "what are my pension rollover options?" (or something like that) in the Canada Discussion sub-forum, in hopes of attracting comments from those more familiar with Canadian tax law.
Ok - going to read up on a lot more forum discussions.

Anyone have any advice - am I looking for a cross border tax accountant, a cross border fee-only financial planner, or a lawyer? I’m just confusing myself.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!