When should feds hang on or jump ship?

[ebella]

I'm a permanent GS15 in DC area.  Not probationary, not in a traditional policy role (I defend a domestic agency if its gets sued), but I am a manager of attorneys which is both outside the bargaining unit and could be designated as a policy position under a new EO.  Under normal circumstances, I'd stay in govt  but I'm not fully vested in the FERS (just the TSP) and, frankly, not convinced it will continue to exist by the time I reach retirement eligibility under current guidelines.  Both my parents are retired feds on pensions and I'm even concerned something could happen to their pensions, TSPs and SS. I don't love my agency so I had been interviewing and applying to better (higher paying, more private sector exit options) govt jobs before the hiring freeze. We're RTO 5 days a week starting 2/10 which is fine (as long as govt continues to pay my metrocard for the 1 hr each way commute).
We got the "deferred retirement" offer which I don't trust is a valid contract or will be honored/enforceable and I don't have another job lined up.  I'm not especially competitive for private sector jobs at or above my current compensation and work/life balance but I've been applying selectively since October.  Now, I'm less selective, even going so far as to consider jobs at a more junior level or that I have zero interest in and would require me to move, because part of me wonders, is it better to jump ship while there are still lifeboats than to wait and see if fed govt even continues in the iteration that makes it professionally appealing (job security, benefits, work/life balance)? 

I'm not dumb enough to take an exploding offer without anything lined up, but the DC market for good jobs rn is saturated with folks just like me.  Is it time to cut my losses with govt and move/apply for and accept jobs I have no desire to do?  We're 40s DINKS, debt free, no mortgage, healthy, no dependents and I'm main breadwinner (spouse works but tariffs will hit his job hard and, right now, his takehome isn't enough to cover our expenses).  We're nowhere near FIRE, but have about a little over $500k networth across our emergency fund and various retirement/investment funds. Any other folks in the same boat? What's your thinking? 

[englishteacheralex]

Similar scenario here. DH has been a GS in the same agency for over 10 years. Having to go back to the office isn't a big deal for him, since we live 15 minutes away from his work, although it's been nice to have the flexibility to have him work from home a few days a week.

The larger question of the chaos and the offensive manner in which the administration is treating fed employees has got us fairly alarmed. Our net worth is about $1m but we have two kids and can't afford our mortgage without DH's job. He's been sniffing around in the private sector and already gotten a few bites, but so far everything would be a pay cut.

I think we're in a holding pattern at the moment, since he actually does believe in the mission of this specific version of his career and is not just in it for the job security, benefits, and work/life balance. What he's doing is what he sincerely has always wanted to do. We're hoping this is all a big dust-up but in the end nothing will change too much. But we're definitely on notice.

Oh, and no, he wouldn't take the "deferred retirement" offer because it smells extremely fishy. Just one more example of the contempt the administration evidently has for government employees.

[FIRE@50]

I'm not in the same boat as you but I would not jump ship right now. If you quit now, you risk missing out on the inevitable severance/settlement/class action lawsuit that is coming.

[tj]

I'm not in the same boat as you but I would not jump ship right now. If you quit now, you risk missing out on the inevitable severance/settlement/class action lawsuit that is coming.

What would the class action be? I'm assuming those who do the deferred resignation would have a solid class action if the government screws them over, but I'm not sure what the settlement or class action would be fort hose of us who stick around.


i definitely think there will be better offers if they don't have enough resignations from this effort.

The way they presented this one just seems so sketch, but some people don't seem to be skeptical about it.

[ROF Expat]

I wouldn't take any irreversible action without stopping to take a deep breath and think things out, preferably with the benefit of expert advice.  My first stop for advice would be my agency's union or professional organization. 

[NorCal]

I'm answering this as someone who has mostly worked in the tech/startup world.  Although I did some military service 15+ years ago.

My answer comes from the perspective of someone who doesn't know government well.  However, I've frequently been at risk of losing my job from company performance, fundraising trouble, boss changeover, etc.  My career has always been two missed quarters away from unemployment.

First, take a deep breath.  Maybe something will happen.  Most likely it wont.  Make sure you're in a financial spot where a loss of job won't be disastrous.  That's the biggest element you can control.

Second, remember your job is to defend the federal government against lawsuits.  I can't imagine a more in-demand job over the next four years.  Even if your agency isn't bearing the brunt of those lawsuits, some other agency nearby will be needing a lot of defense work.  The work will be there.  Just be sure you're in a position to take advantage of it.

Uncertainty =/= catastrophe.  Uncertainty = opportunity more often than not.  Just be sure to put yourself in a place where you can take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. 

[GilesMM]

Not enough information to make a decision yet.  I would hang around and see how it goes.

[ebella]

Make sure you're in a financial spot where a loss of job won't be disastrous.  That's the biggest element you can control.

Second, remember your job is to defend the federal government against lawsuits.  I can't imagine a more in-demand job over the next four years.  Even if your agency isn't bearing the brunt of those lawsuits, some other agency nearby will be needing a lot of defense work.  The work will be there.  Just be sure you're in a position to take advantage of it.

Uncertainty =/= catastrophe.  Uncertainty = opportunity more often than not.  Just be sure to put yourself in a place where you can take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves.

Yea I am ok. No debt etc.  And I agree that normally I'd consider myself safer than most (I already know I'll be defending policy changes from some recent EOs) but I'm not sure there's alot of rationale in who is being cut in terms of what each person's value add is.  I'm a high performer, but I had some past employment in the private sector that I am concerned could be used to target me.  Plus the one size fits all approach of deeming any supervisor of attnys as a policy role outside civil service protections puts me on shakier ground than those I supervise.  Also, in a true RIF according to the existing law, most of my agency has many more years of service than I do, so I would likely be riffed. 

[rebel_quietude]

There's another component here, that I think is worth mentioning.

Most of us didn't join the government because it was the best work life balance, or most stable job. Most of us joined the government to assist with the work of governing - because it has a purpose beyond profit, for the well-being and interests of U.S. citizens.

Having been through the first go-round, I will say this one is certainly worse in the intensity of chaos right off the bat. Please remember, though, eventually we're going to have to rebuild what is getting broken. Rational voices demonstrating integrity are never unnecessary. If you love your country and want the next generation's lives to be better than our own, consider that a weight in favor of staying in service and weathering the storm.

[ebella]

I wouldn't take any irreversible action without stopping to take a deep breath and think things out, preferably with the benefit of expert advice.  My first stop for advice would be my agency's union or professional organization.

I'm not eligible to be in the Union as a manager.  Plus the unions/professional orgs/experts are overwhelmed and have no idea what to do. I know this because I've personally been told that by the unions and HR people and and am, myself, considered an expert because I've litigated and adjudicated 100s of employment and civil rights cases.  There is no precedent for this and, for a number of reasons I won't go into here, I'm not even sure this is a legal/expert question anymore. Perhaps the better question is: is this ship going down? and, if so, when is it too late to get off?

[bacchi]

I wouldn't take any irreversible action without stopping to take a deep breath and think things out, preferably with the benefit of expert advice.  My first stop for advice would be my agency's union or professional organization.

I'm not eligible to be in the Union as a manager.  Plus the unions/professional orgs/experts are overwhelmed and have no idea what to do. I know this because I've personally been told that by the unions and HR people and and am, myself, considered an expert because I've litigated and adjudicated 100s of employment and civil rights cases.  There is no precedent for this and, for a number of reasons I won't go into here, I'm not even sure this is a legal/expert question anymore. Perhaps the better question is: is this ship going down? and, if so, when is it too late to get off?

How large is the "ship" in this metaphor?

[yachi]

I was not in government, but have worked in places that seemed like sinking ships.  At one of my jobs, a place that hired a quite-incompetent employee into a position higher than me, I had a rolling list of things I stayed for:
1) Another X months until my resume wouldn't look bad (actually ended up surviving incompetent employee)
2) to hold the office together through my nice, but terminally ill boss's illness, and the transition it entailed
3) until my 401(k) match vested
4) until I gained a particularly useful professional designation

I would say don't leave too soon.  We need good people in government, especially with the craziness happening.  But if you find a great opportunity don't hesitate to go for it.  Practically I think that means continue looking for opportunities with similar seniority and pay.  But being you don't need to leave paycheck-to-paycheck, maybe that gives you an opportunity push through the pain.

You say you're mortgage free, does that mean you have an expensive DC house you'd be selling to move to a cheaper location?  Not much on the east coast has prices like DC.

[tj]

I wouldn't take any irreversible action without stopping to take a deep breath and think things out, preferably with the benefit of expert advice.  My first stop for advice would be my agency's union or professional organization.

I'm not eligible to be in the Union as a manager.  Plus the unions/professional orgs/experts are overwhelmed and have no idea what to do. I know this because I've personally been told that by the unions and HR people and and am, myself, considered an expert because I've litigated and adjudicated 100s of employment and civil rights cases.  There is no precedent for this and, for a number of reasons I won't go into here, I'm not even sure this is a legal/expert question anymore. Perhaps the better question is: is this ship going down? and, if so, when is it too late to get off?

How large is the "ship" in this metaphor?

The biggest ship that you could possibly think of.

[ChpBstrd]

I wouldn't take any irreversible action without stopping to take a deep breath and think things out, preferably with the benefit of expert advice.  My first stop for advice would be my agency's union or professional organization.

I'm not eligible to be in the Union as a manager.  Plus the unions/professional orgs/experts are overwhelmed and have no idea what to do. I know this because I've personally been told that by the unions and HR people and and am, myself, considered an expert because I've litigated and adjudicated 100s of employment and civil rights cases.  There is no precedent for this and, for a number of reasons I won't go into here, I'm not even sure this is a legal/expert question anymore. Perhaps the better question is: is this ship going down? and, if so, when is it too late to get off?

How large is the "ship" in this metaphor?

The biggest ship that you could possibly think of.

The federal government is the largest employer in the United States, with 2.7 million employees. Every last one of those employees is in it for the retirement benefits and there'd be an absolute revolt if the administration tried to cut the pensions and other retirement benefits that were promised.

As noted above, your agency will be in high demand. Your agency might also be pitted against your own interest, trying to defend the government for cutting retirement benefits! That's a great opportunity for Strategic Incompetence, and I would not pass up the opportunity to fuck up that case royally!

[jrhampt]

My next door neighbor (close to retirement) and one of my close friends are in different govt agencies.  They both got the email but I think they've decided to do nothing for now and see what happens.

[bacchi]

I wouldn't take any irreversible action without stopping to take a deep breath and think things out, preferably with the benefit of expert advice.  My first stop for advice would be my agency's union or professional organization.

I'm not eligible to be in the Union as a manager.  Plus the unions/professional orgs/experts are overwhelmed and have no idea what to do. I know this because I've personally been told that by the unions and HR people and and am, myself, considered an expert because I've litigated and adjudicated 100s of employment and civil rights cases.  There is no precedent for this and, for a number of reasons I won't go into here, I'm not even sure this is a legal/expert question anymore. Perhaps the better question is: is this ship going down? and, if so, when is it too late to get off?

How large is the "ship" in this metaphor?

The biggest ship that you could possibly think of.

The federal government is the largest employer in the United States, with 2.7 million employees. Every last one of those employees is in it for the retirement benefits and there'd be an absolute revolt if the administration tried to cut the pensions and other retirement benefits that were promised.

As noted above, your agency will be in high demand. Your agency might also be pitted against your own interest, trying to defend the government for cutting retirement benefits! That's a great opportunity for Strategic Incompetence, and I would not pass up the opportunity to fuck up that case royally!

I think the ship is larger.

[ebella]

I was not in government, but have worked in places that seemed like sinking ships.  At one of my jobs, a place that hired a quite-incompetent employee into a position higher than me, I had a rolling list of things I stayed for:
1) Another X months until my resume wouldn't look bad (actually ended up surviving incompetent employee)
2) to hold the office together through my nice, but terminally ill boss's illness, and the transition it entailed
3) until my 401(k) match vested
4) until I gained a particularly useful professional designation

I would say don't leave too soon.  We need good people in government, especially with the craziness happening.  But if you find a great opportunity don't hesitate to go for it.  Practically I think that means continue looking for opportunities with similar seniority and pay.  But being you don't need to leave paycheck-to-paycheck, maybe that gives you an opportunity push through the pain.

You say you're mortgage free, does that mean you have an expensive DC house you'd be selling to move to a cheaper location?  Not much on the east coast has prices like DC.

1) my resume is already not ideal from a longevity perspective, i've left a bunch of jobs after a year or less but been in my current agency for over 2 yrs and promoted to mgmt after 1 yr. not that it counts for much in private sector.
2) the office would fall apart without me
3) my tsp match has vested but i am 2 years to being eligible to take anything from FERS (let alone retire fully on them)
4) i've reached my professional ceiling, was passed over for another promotion (6 mo after my previous one when my boss resigned and recommended i replace them) for an older lateral.  i feel like i've mastered most of the skills i need and am spending more time on ppl mgmt than honing other skills.

had a good screener interview this week for an exciting non-profit but pay is too low and could be chaotic.  have an informal one at a law firm on friday. so i'm getting some bites which is good.  we live in a coop bldg in an apt owned by our family.  so no/significant equity mortgage but steadily increasing HOA dues. most places we'd want to move to outside DC would be more expensive.

[LD_TAndK]

My wife is in a similar position where it's uncertain whether her federal contracting job may suddenly be untenable due to all these changes.

We decided she should start interviewing, even though it's a pain in the butt. If she happens to get an offer for a job that sounds better than her current position, she'll go ahead and take it. Otherwise she'll just be brushing up on her interview skills and be prepared. Fortunately we're FI so she can be choosy.

[ChpBstrd]

I was not in government, but have worked in places that seemed like sinking ships.  At one of my jobs, a place that hired a quite-incompetent employee into a position higher than me, I had a rolling list of things I stayed for:
1) Another X months until my resume wouldn't look bad (actually ended up surviving incompetent employee)
2) to hold the office together through my nice, but terminally ill boss's illness, and the transition it entailed
3) until my 401(k) match vested
4) until I gained a particularly useful professional designation

I would say don't leave too soon.  We need good people in government, especially with the craziness happening.  But if you find a great opportunity don't hesitate to go for it.  Practically I think that means continue looking for opportunities with similar seniority and pay.  But being you don't need to leave paycheck-to-paycheck, maybe that gives you an opportunity push through the pain.

You say you're mortgage free, does that mean you have an expensive DC house you'd be selling to move to a cheaper location?  Not much on the east coast has prices like DC.

1) my resume is already not ideal from a longevity perspective, i've left a bunch of jobs after a year or less but been in my current agency for over 2 yrs and promoted to mgmt after 1 yr. not that it counts for much in private sector.
2) the office would fall apart without me
3) my tsp match has vested but i am 2 years to being eligible to take anything from FERS (let alone retire fully on them)
4) i've reached my professional ceiling, was passed over for another promotion (6 mo after my previous one when my boss resigned and recommended i replace them) for an older lateral.  i feel like i've mastered most of the skills i need and am spending more time on ppl mgmt than honing other skills.

had a good screener interview this week for an exciting non-profit but pay is too low and could be chaotic.  have an informal one at a law firm on friday. so i'm getting some bites which is good.  we live in a coop bldg in an apt owned by our family.  so no/significant equity mortgage but steadily increasing HOA dues. most places we'd want to move to outside DC would be more expensive.

1) That looks amazing from the private sector perspective, which will simply see you as an employee for the same employer rapidly rising through the ranks.
2) This concern betrays an element of idealism on your part. First of all, if they are not your employer, it is 100% not your problem. Second, how many hungry junior employees would like to have your job, or would find that "fall apart" moment to be their opportunity to shine and break into management by leading from below? They may be deferential now, but when the opportunity appears they might take charge. I've seen the meekest of employees come out of nowhere and start acting like directors when there was a void above them. Similarly, if you need a promotion, then this chaos may work in your favor by breaking up entrenched leadership castes. E.g. buyouts, if they hold up in court, could retire some senior leaders early.
3) You could either spend the 2 years to get a toehold on FERS in a job that isn't ideal, or you could switch to another job that will not be ideal. There is no ideal, but there are bad jobs. Given that the upside is basically a wash, I would lean toward the bird in hand.
4) You mention a bit of job hopping earlier, but here you mention feeling maxed out in your current role. Perhaps you are a quick study, and need a steady stream of new responsibilities/promotions to learn and stay engaged? But what if you're only learning the superficial level of a role? If you are a manager, and most of what you are doing is people management now, after having mastered the technical aspects, then... that's the management role. People management is a whole new world of things to learn, with a vast literature and a never-ending stream of challenges that change across personalities. Look up from the technical side of things and see a world of possibilities for growth all around you.

[ebella]

Well, it looks like I will have to jump ship (or be thrown overboard) sooner than I expected.  They fired all probationary attorneys Friday and plan to "RIF" 48% of the Office of General Counsel within 120 days.  There was nothing we could do to protect our probationary folks, managers (even SES) didn't even know their folks were on the termination list until decisions had been made.  I doubt I will make it past the "RIF" let alone to 2 more years.  If they base "RIF" on tenure (as per RIF regs and most likely route given how my agency operates) I'm going to be on chopping block....and my best direct reports with their kids, mortgages, and student debt.  The people near or at retirement will be kept on and there are far to many of them (70% of work force) to meet the 48% target without terminating all the more recent hires first.  If they base it on performance or need, maybe we have a chance but for what?  To defend EO's for an adminstration that's trying to re-classify me so they can rip away the employment protections and retirement benenfits that would be the last things making the job bearable?  The cost benenfit analysis makes staying a bad choice now.  I'd rather get out when there may still be litigation jobs to be found than wait around and see what fresh hell the next day brings.  I kinda wish I had taken the deferred resignation becasue, if they pay it, which is doubtful, I'd get (60k) more than I would get if I am RIFfed.  Also, I'd have standing to sue them for damages, which I'm really itching to do. Hoping someone will hire me to do just that.  I've never lost a case where I was the lead counsel, and like I fine wine, believe I get better with age;)

[wenchsenior]

ebella, I am profoundly sorry. It has been a complete blood bath of (most likely illegal) firings of probationary employees this past week and another round is apparently coming tomorrow.

The thing is, they are not following legal procedure in their probationary firings so far, so I don't necessarily expect that they will follow legal RIF procedures either.

Normally, my husband would be last on the list to fire...he's head of his subunit which only has one other person employed, he's got >25 years of service, only a few years from retirement, many performance awards through his career, and is a veteran. But he just got transferred to the head of his unit a few months ago when the previous head retired, so it's somewhat unclear if he qualifies as probationary. He doesn't qualify under normal operating criteria, but we've been hearing rumors that OPM (aka DOGE) is just drafting boilerplate emails and sending them to anyone who might even remotely meet that criteria even after lateral or upward transfer within units or agencies in which they've served for decades.

If we make it through this coming week, then comes the question of whether entire agencies will be axed out of existence as part of the next round of budget negotiations, or whether budget cuts would force RIFs. If so, then RIFs would at least be fully legal, and might proceed under semi-normal procedures and conditions.

It's incredible. I'm a pessimist by nature and I have never been as despairing about America's future as in the past 2 weeks.

[tj]

Well, it looks like I will have to jump ship (or be thrown overboard) sooner than I expected.  They fired all probationary attorneys Friday and plan to "RIF" 48% of the Office of General Counsel within 120 days.  There was nothing we could do to protect our probationary folks, managers (even SES) didn't even know their folks were on the termination list until decisions had been made.  I doubt I will make it past the "RIF" let alone to 2 more years.  If they base "RIF" on tenure (as per RIF regs and most likely route given how my agency operates) I'm going to be on chopping block....and my best direct reports with their kids, mortgages, and student debt.  The people near or at retirement will be kept on and there are far to many of them (70% of work force) to meet the 48% target without terminating all the more recent hires first.  If they base it on performance or need, maybe we have a chance but for what?  To defend EO's for an adminstration that's trying to re-classify me so they can rip away the employment protections and retirement benenfits that would be the last things making the job bearable?  The cost benenfit analysis makes staying a bad choice now.  I'd rather get out when there may still be litigation jobs to be found than wait around and see what fresh hell the next day brings.  I kinda wish I had taken the deferred resignation becasue, if they pay it, which is doubtful, I'd get (60k) more than I would get if I am RIFfed.  Also, I'd have standing to sue them for damages, which I'm really itching to do. Hoping someone will hire me to do just that.  I've never lost a case where I was the lead counsel, and like I fine wine, believe I get better with age;)

I think I'm gonna apply for reasonable accommodation which they'll deny, maybe I can take a disability retirement on my way out.  I keep getting diagnosed with shit. if we're all going to be RIF'd anyway, might as well give it a shot.