Author Topic: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?  (Read 45808 times)

BCBiker

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What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« on: August 06, 2015, 06:46:00 AM »
Let us assume the following assumption about the future is correct: human-driven automobile's will not be available to the general public in less than 20 years.

I believe this because 10s of thousands of healthy young people die needlessly because humans are crappy drivers. If this were not a normal part of life (10 car accident on I-600, 7 dead, 2 of them children) this would cause absolute outrage.  There are other strong arguments for self-driving cars such as energy efficiency, decreased real estate needs for parking and congested freeways, etc.

Technology is rapidly developing to make automated cars a viable replacement of the current system.

This means that if everyone gets around by essentially self-driving Uber cars with no personal car ownership, men (mostly men) in their 20's and 30's will not be able to spend 30/40/50/70% of their take home pay on personal trucks. 


What will these same people spend all of their spare cash on?


Let's try to keep this thread to the point of just answering the question.  Try not to derail it into discussion related to my assumptions. Thank you. I'm looking forward to hearing what Mustachians have to say.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 10:09:19 AM by BCBiker »

G-dog

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2015, 06:55:25 AM »
I think it will vary by rural vs. urban ---
More rural / access to open land or water land - ATVs, boats, etc.
More urban / lack good access - expensive jewelry, e.g. Uber exoensive watches

I think it may also vary by gender - but one commonality may be ultra expensive mobile devices.

My assumption it that it has to be a stays symbol others will see, and / or something you can still drive fast / control.

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2015, 07:05:25 AM »
Perhaps they will just Uber around in excessively expensive self-driving cars?

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2015, 08:06:54 AM »
It'll just throw people into a frothing outrage about "freedom" and how the government is shoving self-driving cars down our throats and taking away our god-given right to go mudding, and actually make owning your own truck even more popular. All the better if it's become some exclusive club due to not being able to just go out and buy one at the dealership. Prices will spiral upward in a buying frenzy, and all the young men will be spending 70% their income on gas and scavenged parts to keep their 20-year-old F-350s on the road.

Once the junkyards have been thoroughly picked over and all the old trucks have disintegrated beyond repair, I agreed with G-dog that people will move on to other flashy things, probably expensive wearable technology and/or other costly and largely useless vehicles like boats. Although, how are you going to get your boat to the lake without your massive truck?

DeltaBond

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2015, 08:13:58 AM »
There is a lot of need for all of the vehicles on the road, even the bicycles that make everyone's travel that much less safe.  I'm not sure what the evolution of the electric cars and the self driving cars will end up being, but I think I'd rather see bicycles off the road before trucks.  sorry, just sayin, the DIYers on here may very well have an appreciation for truck ownership.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 08:21:41 AM by DeltaBond »

tlars699

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2015, 08:29:24 AM »
There is a lot of need for all of the vehicles on the road, even the bicycles that make everyone's travel that much less safe.  I'm not sure what the evolution of the electric cars and the self driving cars will end up being, but I think I'd rather see bicycles off the road before trucks.  sorry, just sayin, the DIYers on here may very well have an appreciation for truck ownership.

o_O Do you read the main articles? Bicycles are waaaaay more safe than vehicles, and self driven cars are being programmed to watch out for small moving objects, aka bicycles with children on them.

DeltaBond

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2015, 08:38:22 AM »
I was thinking of the mayhem the cyclists cause in my city for all the drivers having to go around them, etc.  We don't have bike lanes, and I am convinced they are all suicidal.

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2015, 08:50:39 AM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2015, 09:03:09 AM »
Not to crush your assumption but out here in ruralville there will always be a need for personal ownership of trucks.   Not-so-much in the cities.

I'm thinking that your Uber selfdriving car membership will come with some options.

Of course there will be Uber Basic, Uber Prime and Uber Ultra.   

One thing your forgot to mention is that all the cars and trucks will be 100% solar electric powered.   So perhaps your are completely wrong.   It may not end up being tiny little cars driving around but lots of even more massive trucks.   (even Elon Musk latest car is a big 4000 pounder) You see at the Uber Ultra $199 a month package everyone can have the massive Hummer style ride meet them at the door, pick them up and drop them off.    It would also make more sense for ride sharing.

I can see one option being express for more money or share a ride for a discount. 

Given the proclivity for US consumers for bigger and shinnier --- I'm guessing that the Uber of the future will include mostly massive vehicles.  There will be 5 times as few of them of course and the cost will be spread.   So it is a win, win.  Massive shinny trucks for the masses at a much lower monthly cost.

If it goes the way of cable to Netflix you'll see a desire of the consumer for niche rides as well.  Convertibles, exotic looks, expensive rides,  luxury interiors. 

Summary -- we will not all be riding around in little prius type vehicles. 


(oddly it may be that car usage increases substaintially as kids as young at 7 become Uber members,  those that don't drive due to ability,  the aged and just the fact that it will be so damn cheap.  We will see Uber as a right just like cell phones.  So you will see everyone that has an Obama phone now have an Uber membership paid by Uncle Sam.  And boy will they use it!   Yes Uber will have status symbol options and people will continue to buy massive houses.)

DeltaBond

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2015, 09:13:33 AM »
I have noticed more wasteful spending on homes rather than vehicles.  I know too many folks over spending on houses that max out their budget.  Comparing costs of vehicles gets tricky, generalizing truck owners is no different than generalizing civic owners, as some people mod out their vehicles, some go all basic.

Bob W, I like your post. 
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 09:29:42 AM by DeltaBond »

music lover

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2015, 09:29:57 AM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2015, 09:33:41 AM »
Not to crush your assumption but out here in ruralville there will always be a need for personal ownership of trucks.   Not-so-much in the cities.

I'm thinking that your Uber selfdriving car membership will come with some options.

Of course there will be Uber Basic, Uber Prime and Uber Ultra.   

One thing your forgot to mention is that all the cars and trucks will be 100% solar electric powered.   So perhaps your are completely wrong.   It may not end up being tiny little cars driving around but lots of even more massive trucks.   (even Elon Musk latest car is a big 4000 pounder) You see at the Uber Ultra $199 a month package everyone can have the massive Hummer style ride meet them at the door, pick them up and drop them off.    It would also make more sense for ride sharing.

I can see one option being express for more money or share a ride for a discount. 

Given the proclivity for US consumers for bigger and shinnier --- I'm guessing that the Uber of the future will include mostly massive vehicles.  There will be 5 times as few of them of course and the cost will be spread.   So it is a win, win.  Massive shinny trucks for the masses at a much lower monthly cost.

If it goes the way of cable to Netflix you'll see a desire of the consumer for niche rides as well.  Convertibles, exotic looks, expensive rides,  luxury interiors. 

Summary -- we will not all be riding around in little prius type vehicles. 


(oddly it may be that car usage increases substaintially as kids as young at 7 become Uber members,  those that don't drive due to ability,  the aged and just the fact that it will be so damn cheap.  We will see Uber as a right just like cell phones.  So you will see everyone that has an Obama phone now have an Uber membership paid by Uncle Sam.  And boy will they use it!   Yes Uber will have status symbol options and people will continue to buy massive houses.)

Bob W. I agree that ruralville will be a big holdout. I actually grew up in a town of 300 people so I know the types of people that live out there. Perhaps when cities and major freeways ban human driven cars, there may be some incentive for more people to move out to the boonies.  There certainly are people who really do value their ability to get drunk and drive into ditches.

Whoever monetizes self driving cars will definitely be missing out if they don't sell to the people who value big and shiny.  If the motor vehicle death rate drops to approximately zero, there will probably be fewer people who desire big because of the false sense of security commonly expressed in response to MMM critiques to large trucks.

The reason that most people's spending on vehicles will drop so dramatically though is that there will no longer be the hidden and disparate costs of vehicle ownership that exist now.   Now, especially for luxury and large vehicles, the largest expense is depreciation, buy a $50k car new selling it for 25k 2.5 years later, at a cost of $833 per month.  Plus the cost of gas here, car wash there, new dice for the mirror, insurance, etc.  People who make less than $2000 per month take home can easily end up spending $1000 or more on their car without knowing it. 

Under the new paradigm I imagine, people will see their monthly vehicle bill like a cable subscription and that is all that they will pay. So the same person currently paying >$1000 per month would balk at a $400 per month "Uber" bill.

I foresee that as commuting becomes more expensive people will divert their extra cash to housing probably but I certainly do not think like a typical Truck driver.
 

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2015, 09:38:00 AM »
There is a lot of need for all of the vehicles on the road, even the bicycles that make everyone's travel that much less safe.  I'm not sure what the evolution of the electric cars and the self driving cars will end up being, but I think I'd rather see bicycles off the road before trucks.  sorry, just sayin, the DIYers on here may very well have an appreciation for truck ownership.

o_O Do you read the main articles? Bicycles are waaaaay more safe than vehicles, and self driven cars are being programmed to watch out for small moving objects, aka bicycles with children on them.

Bicycles are not actually more safe than cars; Biking actually has a higher fatality rate than driving (see http://www.businesscasualbiker.com/common-rationalizations-risk/). It is just that the difference is insignificant and is biased towards that fact that many people who bike do so because they lost their license due to alcoholism... There are also MAML's (middle aged men in Lycra) who are reasserting their masculinity by going fast on mountain roads that also drive up the bike fatality rate.  If it were possible to quantify bicycle commuting fatality rate, it is likely that the bike death rate is lower than cars...


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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2015, 09:55:02 AM »
Why would Ford not make big auto-driving trucks/SUVs to sell to people that want big trucks/SUVs as a status symbol?

On a technical level I agree we could take road deaths to near zero in a decade or two. 

On a political level I can see human driven cars being banned (on public roads) much more easily than auto-driven large vehicles. 

I think in a relatively short time all new cars will be mandated to be auto-drive.  The safety case and the savings to individuates and society will be to great to ignore.  But there will be hold outs who refuse to 'up-grade' and keep there human-driven car as long as possible.

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2015, 09:57:26 AM »
Let us assume the following assumption about the future is correct: self-driven automobile's will not be available to the general public in less than 20 years.

Quote
Technology is rapidly developing to make automated cars a viable replacement of the current system.

^
This is confusing? I think you meant to say one of these or the other.

Well, if you're trying to say that society is going to transition to self-driving vehicles, I'd say that this doesn't mean that they will be any more sensible in size or price. Maybe they start morphing into literal living-rooms-on-wheels, where people lounge in their 3-ton vehicles where a big TV screen fed by a 1000-channel cable package has replaced the windshield.

FIRE me

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2015, 10:12:31 AM »
Let us assume the following assumption about the future is correct: self-driven automobile's will not be available to the general public in less than 20 years.

I believe this because 10s of thousands of healthy young people die needlessly because humans are crappy drivers. If this were not a normal part of life (10 car accident on I-600, 7 dead, 2 of them children) this would cause absolute outrage.  There are other strong arguments for self-driving cars such as energy efficiency, decreased real estate needs for parking and congested freeways, etc.

Technology is rapidly developing to make automated cars a viable replacement of the current system.

This means that if everyone gets around by essentially self-driving Uber cars with no personal car ownership, men (mostly men) in their 20's and 30's will not be able to spend 30/40/50/70% of their take home pay on personal trucks. 

What will these same people spend all of their spare cash on?

Let's try to keep this thread to the point of just answering the question.  Try not to derail it into discussion related to my assumptions. Thank you. I'm looking forward to hearing what Mustachians have to say.

Sorry to be argumentative, but your assumption is wrong. There may indeed be many self driving cars on the road in 20 years, but I think it will be less than 50% of total traffic.

No way human driven vehicles will be outlawed in 20 years. Heck, many of the cars made in 2015 will still be on the road in 20 years. And the very large majority of the cars made in 2025 will still be on the road in 2035.

Your supposition reminds me of the cashless society predictions. It's been predicted for decades now. Lots of people do prefer to pay by card or smartphone. But won't be cash going away any time soon either.

Still, to answer your question, I think the new big money wasters (as opposed to small money wasters like $5 coffees) will be high technology in nature. Wearable computing, virtual reality, or perhaps domestic robots to do household chores.

Or maybe, big, self driving trucks.

BCBiker

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2015, 10:30:06 AM »
Let us assume the following assumption about the future is correct: self-driven automobile's will not be available to the general public in less than 20 years.

Quote
Technology is rapidly developing to make automated cars a viable replacement of the current system.

^
This is confusing? I think you meant to say one of these or the other.

Well, if you're trying to say that society is going to transition to self-driving vehicles, I'd say that this doesn't mean that they will be any more sensible in size or price. Maybe they start morphing into literal living-rooms-on-wheels, where people lounge in their 3-ton vehicles where a big TV screen fed by a 1000-channel cable package has replaced the windshield.

It is now corrected above. Thank you for pointing out the confusion.

Also good point.  I know that if I could commute and read a book or working on a project that would significantly improve my productivity.  Many people do this on commuter trains in large cities.  However, people could also make make their commute as unproductive they make the rest of their lives by watching television, reading worthless celebrity magazines, etc.

Bob W

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2015, 10:37:19 AM »
Yeah, it does seem overly optimist that human driven cars will be outlawed.  But I could definitely see Cities like NY going this route.   Makes a lot o sense in the bigger cities.   One can easily imagine a stream of Driverless Uber cars quietly humming along.  No need for expensive parking garages (that is huge space).   NY City seems to be well on the way to this with the number of taxes I see on TV at least.    The paradigm shift and financial incentives are there in places like there and DC. 

No air pollution,  quiet operation,  no wrecks,  cheaper faster,  less congestion,  safer.   Yeah, the self driving Uber deal will work really well in many places. 

Bob W

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2015, 10:40:38 AM »
Let us assume the following assumption about the future is correct: self-driven automobile's will not be available to the general public in less than 20 years.

Quote
Technology is rapidly developing to make automated cars a viable replacement of the current system.

^
This is confusing? I think you meant to say one of these or the other.

Well, if you're trying to say that society is going to transition to self-driving vehicles, I'd say that this doesn't mean that they will be any more sensible in size or price. Maybe they start morphing into literal living-rooms-on-wheels, where people lounge in their 3-ton vehicles where a big TV screen fed by a 1000-channel cable package has replaced the windshield.

It is now corrected above. Thank you for pointing out the confusion.

Also good point.  I know that if I could commute and read a book or working on a project that would significantly improve my productivity.  Many people do this on commuter trains in large cities.  However, people could also make make their commute as unproductive they make the rest of their lives by watching television, reading worthless celebrity magazines, etc.

For many jobs there is less and less need to actually commute.   Apparently we can have smart phones but not smarter ways to work.   It is odd that even tech companies often require their employees to be "in the office"

Of course with an Uber model in a city this would almost require a more staggered work day in order to minimize the fleet size.   

So yeah,  predictions of the future are almost always way off or most of the nation would be remotely working already.   

TheAnonOne

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2015, 10:41:28 AM »
What if human driven cars are never outlawed and instead are simply run along side the self driving cars?

Or, in my mind, more likely......

All self driving cars will ALSO be human piloted. AKA, they will drive themselves most of the time, but still have all of the controls to get 'taken over' if you will.

This would basically, allow people to do everything they do today, but still own cars/trucks and drive them anywhere, though, safer on the freeways ect,ect,ect.

music lover

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2015, 10:42:44 AM »
I think in a relatively short time all new cars will be mandated to be auto-drive.  The safety case and the savings to individuates and society will be to great to ignore.  But there will be hold outs who refuse to 'up-grade' and keep there human-driven car as long as possible.

You're asking for more government control of your life, which most people are against. I can see it working in limited applications, but I doubt it will become mainstream for a very long time.

Road fatalities can be reduced to near zero immediately by implementing 20 mph speed limits everywhere. The reason they are not is because society has more or less agreed on a boundary line between efficiency (getting there in a reasonable amount of time) and safety.

BCBiker

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2015, 10:43:07 AM »
Let us assume the following assumption about the future is correct: self-driven automobile's will not be available to the general public in less than 20 years.

I believe this because 10s of thousands of healthy young people die needlessly because humans are crappy drivers. If this were not a normal part of life (10 car accident on I-600, 7 dead, 2 of them children) this would cause absolute outrage.  There are other strong arguments for self-driving cars such as energy efficiency, decreased real estate needs for parking and congested freeways, etc.

Technology is rapidly developing to make automated cars a viable replacement of the current system.

This means that if everyone gets around by essentially self-driving Uber cars with no personal car ownership, men (mostly men) in their 20's and 30's will not be able to spend 30/40/50/70% of their take home pay on personal trucks. 

What will these same people spend all of their spare cash on?

Let's try to keep this thread to the point of just answering the question.  Try not to derail it into discussion related to my assumptions. Thank you. I'm looking forward to hearing what Mustachians have to say.

Sorry to be argumentative, but your assumption is wrong. There may indeed be many self driving cars on the road in 20 years, but I think it will be less than 50% of total traffic.

No way human driven vehicles will be outlawed in 20 years. Heck, many of the cars made in 2015 will still be on the road in 20 years. And the very large majority of the cars made in 2025 will still be on the road in 2035.

Your supposition reminds me of the cashless society predictions. It's been predicted for decades now. Lots of people do prefer to pay by card or smartphone. But won't be cash going away any time soon either.

Still, to answer your question, I think the new big money wasters (as opposed to small money wasters like $5 coffees) will be high technology in nature. Wearable computing, virtual reality, or perhaps domestic robots to do household chores.

Or maybe, big, self driving trucks.

You may be right 100%. It is not a great comparison though.  Using credit card/smartphones instead of cash has no overarching benefit to the population. Nobody is going die because he/she continues to use cash.  However, 1-2 people out of every 10000 Americans are sure to die this year from motor vehicle accidents.

In some ways, however, the arguments against driverless cars is similar to those against cash, less freedom and less anonymity. A strong argument perhaps but less compelling than than over the next 10 years 3-6 of your facebook friends will be dead (calculated based on the average # of facebook friends being 338*).

*I do not have facebook.
 
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 11:36:33 AM by BCBiker »

BCBiker

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2015, 10:50:51 AM »
I think in a relatively short time all new cars will be mandated to be auto-drive.  The safety case and the savings to individuates and society will be to great to ignore.  But there will be hold outs who refuse to 'up-grade' and keep there human-driven car as long as possible.

You're asking for more government control of your life, which most people are against. I can see it working in limited applications, but I doubt it will become mainstream for a very long time.

Road fatalities can be reduced to near zero immediately by implementing 20 mph speed limits everywhere. The reason they are not is because society has more or less agreed on a boundary line between efficiency (getting there in a reasonable amount of time) and safety.

There is a small subset of the population with strong feelings against government control (perceived control) who have an outsized political voice. They are certainly not a majority.

Nevertheless, this does not have to be about government control.  Yes, human driven cars would need to be banned (governmental action).  However, people would have more freedom on average at a lower cost.  For example, you could travel across the country drunk the entire time. You currently cannot because of governmental restriction.  Blind people would have equal mobility options to that of seeing people.  Elderly, disabled, minors, ect.  In many ways this is a peoples proposition.

The glass is half full, my friend. :)

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2015, 10:56:32 AM »
I think in all likelihood people who want do drive their own big stupid trucks will continue to be able to do so (at least for many years to come). However, even having some percentage of people change to safer automated cars will impact the road safety.

I was talking w/ a friend about self-driving cars just the other day. What I had read was the first change will be taxis and Uber type cars will go to automated first, since the cost of car+driver is higher than the cost of a self-driving car.

I hate hate hate to drive and would love to have a self-driving car, possibly sharing ownership w/ others in my area. It really cuts down on the need to have your own personal car if you can take the car to work, and then it can drive itself to the next owner and take them to work, or take your kids to/from daycare/school, etc. It will be a huge boon to older people who can't (or shouldn't drive) and live in areas where there is no useful public transportation.

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2015, 11:08:55 AM »
I think in a relatively short time all new cars will be mandated to be auto-drive.  The safety case and the savings to individuates and society will be to great to ignore.  But there will be hold outs who refuse to 'up-grade' and keep there human-driven car as long as possible.

You're asking for more government control of your life, which most people are against. I can see it working in limited applications, but I doubt it will become mainstream for a very long time.

Road fatalities can be reduced to near zero immediately by implementing 20 mph speed limits everywhere. The reason they are not is because society has more or less agreed on a boundary line between efficiency (getting there in a reasonable amount of time) and safety.

By government control you mean I can only buy X and not anything I want that someone is willing to sell me?  New cars have 10,000 govt requirements on them today.

"20mph", that would be idiotic in every way, but 100% auto-driving cars (on public roads) would have negligible drawbacks.

If you are thinking about the govt monitoring your travels view vehicle locations, this can be done now with traffic cameras or cell phone tracking, or warranted GPS's attached to your car.  Maybe auto-drive could even have an 'Incognito mode' where no onboard logs are made but plenty of external to the car logs would exist.  If you want to travel anonymously today you have to leave your cell at home and ride a bike/take the bus; even that is nowhere near 100%.

music lover: what am I missing?

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #25 on: August 06, 2015, 11:21:52 AM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

Kaspian

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #26 on: August 06, 2015, 12:02:38 PM »
They would buy Panzer tanks, nuclear submarines, or something like the below.  What's that?  Not needed?  Doesn't matter, they will justify why it's required and why they are special.  ...And yes, that's how ridiculous and insecure I think mainstream society is--idiocracy at its finest.  The larger and more phallic, the better.


music lover

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #27 on: August 06, 2015, 12:05:43 PM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

I didn't say I wanted to make cycling more dangerous...I said that the number of riders is too small for government to spend multi-millions. Don't put words in my mouth.

Low gas prices don't only help commuters...they help EVERYONE, even those who don't have cars. Virtually every single product you buy requires fuel for processing, and transportation to the marketplace. Raising gas prices means raising ALL prices across the board.

BCBiker

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #28 on: August 06, 2015, 12:24:54 PM »
They would buy Panzer tanks, nuclear submarines, or something like the below.  What's that?  Not needed?  Doesn't matter, they will justify why it's required and why they are special.  ...And yes, that's how ridiculous and insecure I think mainstream society is--idiocracy at its finest.  The larger and more phallic, the better.



Best answer so Far!

JLee

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #29 on: August 06, 2015, 12:30:15 PM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

Link?

You do realize that the reason gas is so expensive in the UK is because of additional taxes, right?

Eric

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #30 on: August 06, 2015, 12:35:53 PM »
All the Google self-driving cars are Lexus SUVs.  (Well, maybe not all, but all the ones I see)

How much do you think a self-driving Lexus costs?  Probably even more than a ridiculous truck.  Problem solved!

bacchi

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #31 on: August 06, 2015, 12:40:16 PM »
Link?

You do realize that the reason gas is so expensive in the UK is because of additional taxes, right?

Gas taxes in the US are kept low, forcing state DoTs to borrow money from the general fund to pay for new roads and maintenance. In effect, bike riders, through their state income/sales/property taxes, subsidize automobiles.

As for human driving cars, they won't be outlawed but auto-driving will give a huge insurance discount like ABS brakes or air bags.

acroy

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #32 on: August 06, 2015, 12:41:54 PM »
Babes - Bikes - Guns - you name it!!

As long as there are boys with money, there will be toys.

tvan

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #33 on: August 06, 2015, 12:47:41 PM »

All the Google self-driving cars are Lexus SUVs.  (Well, maybe not all, but all the ones I see)

How much do you think a self-driving Lexus costs?  Probably even more than a ridiculous truck.  Problem solved!

There was a recent NPR podcast that talked about how Google has struggled with the perception of safety in the self driving cars. They originally didn't even want to put control in for the human like a break and steering wheel. Unfortunately regulators weren't comfortable with this and required it. I wonder if they are not using the SUV for the same reason - belief that it is safer.


As a side note IDEO has an interesting display of their take of future automobiles. Which include things like mobile working spaces.

bacchi

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #34 on: August 06, 2015, 12:58:53 PM »

vhalros

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #35 on: August 06, 2015, 01:02:10 PM »
Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Don't forget the huge subsidy that is free parking.

Really, the fact there are few bicycle commuters is the reason to build *more* bicycle infrastructure to improve this number, at least in urban areas.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 01:08:25 PM by vhalros »

DeltaBond

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #36 on: August 06, 2015, 01:03:21 PM »
Big dumb truck purchases, overspending on houses, expensive mods for cars.... how expensive are the self driving cars going to be?

GuitarStv

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #37 on: August 06, 2015, 01:39:56 PM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

I didn't say I wanted to make cycling more dangerous...I said that the number of riders is too small for government to spend multi-millions. Don't put words in my mouth.

Low gas prices don't only help commuters...they help EVERYONE, even those who don't have cars. Virtually every single product you buy requires fuel for processing, and transportation to the marketplace. Raising gas prices means raising ALL prices across the board.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm looking at your suggestion logically.  Taxing cyclists will reduce their numbers, reduced numbers of cyclists makes cycling more dangerous.  Your suggestion will make cycling more dangerous.

GuitarStv

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #38 on: August 06, 2015, 01:45:00 PM »
Link?

You do realize that the reason gas is so expensive in the UK is because of additional taxes, right?

Gas taxes in the US are kept low, forcing state DoTs to borrow money from the general fund to pay for new roads and maintenance. In effect, bike riders, through their state income/sales/property taxes, subsidize automobiles.

As for human driving cars, they won't be outlawed but auto-driving will give a huge insurance discount like ABS brakes or air bags.

Taxes breaks and benefits are pretty substantial for gas producing companies as well:  http://www.taxpayer.net/images/uploads/Understanding%20Oil%20%20Gas%20Subsidies%282%29.pdf .  The spice gas must flow though . . .

music lover

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #39 on: August 06, 2015, 01:55:06 PM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

I didn't say I wanted to make cycling more dangerous...I said that the number of riders is too small for government to spend multi-millions. Don't put words in my mouth.

Low gas prices don't only help commuters...they help EVERYONE, even those who don't have cars. Virtually every single product you buy requires fuel for processing, and transportation to the marketplace. Raising gas prices means raising ALL prices across the board.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm looking at your suggestion logically.  Taxing cyclists will reduce their numbers, reduced numbers of cyclists makes cycling more dangerous.  Your suggestion will make cycling more dangerous.

If more cyclists make the road safer, then they should be willing to pay their fair share to make it safer. Don't you agree?

vhalros

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #40 on: August 06, 2015, 02:17:30 PM »
If more cyclists make the road safer, then they should be willing to pay their fair share to make it safer. Don't you agree?

But, of course, they are already paying for roads like every one else.

Brilliantine

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #41 on: August 06, 2015, 02:19:00 PM »
The incentive to forgo human-driven vehicles will probably be in the form of insurance premiums. "Why, yes, my good sir, of course you can own and operate your own vehicle, it is your God given right to do so. The insurance premium will be $1,157.45 a month but if you pay the annual premium upfront, you can get our 5% discount."

I predict (Western) Europe will be the first to go mostly auto-driven. Eventually Canada will convert to mostly auto-driven. Fifteen years later, good ole U.S. of A will still have rednecks driving their trucks with bumper stickers that read "My truck, my insurance premium" or "Come and take it".

BCBiker

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #42 on: August 06, 2015, 02:20:26 PM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

I didn't say I wanted to make cycling more dangerous...I said that the number of riders is too small for government to spend multi-millions. Don't put words in my mouth.

Low gas prices don't only help commuters...they help EVERYONE, even those who don't have cars. Virtually every single product you buy requires fuel for processing, and transportation to the marketplace. Raising gas prices means raising ALL prices across the board.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm looking at your suggestion logically.  Taxing cyclists will reduce their numbers, reduced numbers of cyclists makes cycling more dangerous.  Your suggestion will make cycling more dangerous.

If more cyclists make the road safer, then they should be willing to pay their fair share to make it safer. Don't you agree?

I would argue that the cost of bicycle's damage to infrastructure is negligible.  Safety measures for cyclists also benefit pedestrians. We all pay local sales and property tax that are used to pay for these things.  I also pay taxes for fire, police and rescue service that respond when a truck driver plows through a fence, bus stop, traffic light pole, or local business (all occurrences I have witnessed along the route of my 28 mile daily bicycle commute).

How do you propose that cyclists are taxed for their fair share.  I actually believe that if you did a full cost analysis regarding all of the things mentioned on this thread and others (unpaid infrastructure damage caused by cars, pollution related diseases - we will not fully comprehend this until internal combustion engine are finally gone, obesity related disease - not present in daily bicycle commuters, real estate cost related to parking and traffic congestion, etc, etc) a daily bicycle commuter should actually be getting checks in the mail and a thank you from the car driving tax payers. :)

Despite this, I would be willing to donate significant amounts of money to improve biking infrastructure. I have actually thought about a post-FI hobby as a bicycle infrastructure planner and philanthropist.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 02:22:35 PM by BCBiker »

GuitarStv

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #43 on: August 06, 2015, 04:55:40 PM »
Beautiful.  You have a case of poor infrastructure (no bike lanes) and terrible driving (mayhem caused by drivers having to go around cyclists, because they're evidently too stupid to know how to do this safely).  Do we blame the planners and drivers?  Nope.  It's the 'suicidal' cyclists.  Rape victims probably should have dressed differently because they were begging for it too, right?

Perhaps a bike tax can be implemented to improve cycling infrastructure? The reality is that 2% or less of people commute to work by bike and, therefore, it's not a pressing issue for most governments. I know almost everyone here is happy to cycle 20 miles to work up hill in the snow during blizzards, but that doesn't reflect reality. Even with the best bike lanes possible, that 2% number won't change by very much.

Few people commute by bike because gas prices are kept artificially low by our government, huge subsidies have been put in place for automobile manufacturing, and the police often don't take dangerous behaviour of drivers towards cyclists seriously.

Each bike on the road is using less parking, damaging the road less, and polluting your lungs less than a car.  What you're proposing is just a way to reduce the already small population of cyclists.  Why?  Studies have shown that the fewer cyclists who ride in a given area, the more dangerous cycling becomes (because drivers are unused to seeing bikes on the road).  Why do you want to make cycling more dangerous for the people who do it?

I didn't say I wanted to make cycling more dangerous...I said that the number of riders is too small for government to spend multi-millions. Don't put words in my mouth.

Low gas prices don't only help commuters...they help EVERYONE, even those who don't have cars. Virtually every single product you buy requires fuel for processing, and transportation to the marketplace. Raising gas prices means raising ALL prices across the board.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, I'm looking at your suggestion logically.  Taxing cyclists will reduce their numbers, reduced numbers of cyclists makes cycling more dangerous.  Your suggestion will make cycling more dangerous.

If more cyclists make the road safer, then they should be willing to pay their fair share to make it safer. Don't you agree?

Your contention is that cyclists do not pay their fair share?  What resources are cyclists using that don't benefit pedestrians or drivers?

Bike lanes are for cars users as much as cyclists.  The bike lanes prevent motorists from having to change lanes to pass a cyclist safely.

Kaspian

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #44 on: August 10, 2015, 12:35:46 PM »
"But we just paved that road three years ago--all those damn cyclists wore out the asphalt!"  <-- Said no city manager ever.

PeteD01

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #45 on: August 11, 2015, 02:44:57 AM »
It is going to be sex robots, rent to own, subscription, financed.

PizzaHawk

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #46 on: August 11, 2015, 08:57:47 AM »
My personal truck sees a lot of use on the highway and on construction sites. Almost all of its use on sites is something that I doubt a computer would be able to do. I would need a function that allowed me to turn off the auto-drive while at work. How would you see that reconciling with your assumption?

To answer your question, just because cars become self driving doesn't mean people won't shell out tens of thousands for a ridiculous self-driving truck.

The_path_less_taken

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #47 on: August 11, 2015, 01:15:29 PM »
Tomorrow I'm buying 800lbs of chicken feed.

Last week I purchased several tons of hay, and I still need to get at minimum, 150 more bales of hay for my livestock (they run about 120lbs per bale).

I'll be moving that hay on a 21ft flatbed trailer...the same one I use to haul my tractor around...and I assure you: I will not be pulling it with a bicycle. When Costco comes out with their firewood in pallets next month, I will move 2.5 cords of hardwood on that flatbed. (five of those full pallets)

I will not be acquiring a self driving car. Ever. For a multitude of reasons, but the primary one is that turning every single thing over to technology is a wonderful thing: until it breaks down.

Example: elevators have had sensors on them for decades, by law, that prevent them from slamming someone with a closing door. Awesome.

Except for the woman who got in one at JC Penny's (I think, can't recall the article exactly) in Anchorage, Alaska years ago and was literally torn apart when the doors slammed onto her leg, locked, and dragged her (inside the elevator) up a few floors: while her leg stayed down on the ground floor.

Because she 'depended' on that technology, she didn't take the common sense precaution of boarding safely.

Current big thing in cars is "side collision alert" and other buzzing crap to warn you that there are people in the other lanes.

Or....you could just turn your head, and look out the window. Because that window system? It's not ever going to fail. Or have a sensor go bad. Or require a part.


To answer your question: people will buy more bling. More crap that they don't need. A walk in humidifier for your imported cigars that speaks French so you can store and electronically sort your wine in part of it: in filigree silver with inset rubies? Who can resist?

A brain implant for your cell phone so you only have to wink once to call home to Grandma? Perfect.

Don't sign me up.

Rural

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #48 on: August 11, 2015, 08:07:37 PM »
^+1

use2betrix

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Re: What will replace Trucks as the next dumb purchase?
« Reply #49 on: August 11, 2015, 08:30:03 PM »
I wonder if the OP put any thought into this thread before assuming that because he has no need for a truck, no one has need for a truck.

What will farmers use to tow equipment and hay? What will construction workers use to transport equipment and materials? What about people who own boats? 5th wheels and travel trailers?

I am 27 and drive a $60k truck. A truck I use to tow my 5th wheel I live full time in. How else would I do it?

Oh yeah.. And my $1000 truck payment constitutes less than 7% of my take home pay each month right now. Most my coworkers are the same with their nice trucks.

Great assumptions though.