How much experience do you have with investing, and what's your risk tolerance? What are your 401(k) and IRA invested in? How interested are you in actively managing your investments to maintain a target asset allocation?
The first key here is don't overthink it. Your ability to FIRE will be driven much more by your expenses than it will by the distinction between 0.14 and 0.15 expense ratios. You have already avoided many of the serious traps -- high expense ratios, letting money sit in cash for years, etc. -- and are down to a small list of perfectly good options. So don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good; make a decision and execute it.
I would also try to dissuade you from thinking that you need your asset allocation to become more conservative over the next decade. The reality is that even if you plan to FIRE at 40, you still need those investments to last another 40+ years. So if you like an 80/20 asset allocation now, why change it? Or, if you feel the need to modify it 10 years from now, why couldn't you shift the changes to within your 401(k)/IRA so you don't trigger massive capital gains taxes (remember that your asset allocation applies to your entire portfolio, not just a single investment)? Or just divert new money to the more conservative investments vs. selling and buying your existing stuff? You can think of it as buckets, i.e., right now you are filling your long-term-needs bucket; once that is sufficiently filled, you can divert your new investments to your more conservative short-term needs bucket. There are many, many options in front of you; you don't have to predict the future perfectly right now.
IMO the most important thing is to pick a fund that you will be able to stick with through all the drops. Were you invested in 2008? If so, what did you do then? If you weathered those drops, then I'd put the money into VTSAX and just be prepared to ignore it for decades. If you panicked, or if you weren't invested then, then a more conservative fund might be right for you. Or if you're just lazy and don't want to think about it, then pick a target-date fund and forget about it.
All of your choices can get you there. Pick the one that suits your concerns and risk tolerance.