Cfiresim question

[MMMdude]

When I enter 36k draw for 50 years the withdrawal summary shows 1.8 million. How can that number be accurate? It would be nearly 3 million with inflation factored in???

[nereo]

When I enter 36k draw for 50 years the withdrawal summary shows 1.8 million. How can that number be accurate? It would be nearly 3 million with inflation factored in???

Cfiresim is giving you the values in real-adjusted terms.  It's not assuming you were withdrawing $36k in the simulation that started in 1929, for example, but the equivalent amount ... ~$2600 for 1929.  Otherwise, all the values would be jumbled and meaningless.

[MMMdude]

Ok on the right hand side it has a withdrawal analysis showing "beginning third" with an amount less than 36k.....why would that be?

[nereo]

Ok on the right hand side it has a withdrawal analysis showing "beginning third" with an amount less than 36k.....why would that be?

I don't get your values - what are your inputs (other than $36k from 2016-2066).  Did you change something else (e.g. "%of portfolio" as your withdraw strategy perhaps)?

[MMMdude]

Nope does it for any values. Leave the default 1 mil starting and 40k draw and put in any 20 year start end date. I used 2018 to 2038. Beginning third withdrawal now shows number of 26,667

[nereo]

Nope does it for any values. Leave the default 1 mil starting and 40k draw and put in any 20 year start end date. I used 2018 to 2038. Beginning third withdrawal now shows number of 26,667

Ahh.... That's a very interesting question.  When I enter in most dates (e.g. 2016-2046, or 2020-2050 or 2025-2055) I get what I'd expect; the beginning, middle and final third is all the same.  But when I choose starting dates like 2018 the first third always comes up slightly less, and the spending oscilates around 1 year periods instead of being a flat line (as you'd expect).  I'm guessing it has something to do with periodicity and integers, but I can't determine exactly what's going on.

I'd ask this again in the Cfiresim forum and see if anyone has an answer.  Now I'm curious...

[arebelspy]

Subscribing. Emailed to bo_knows.

[forummm]

Nope does it for any values. Leave the default 1 mil starting and 40k draw and put in any 20 year start end date. I used 2018 to 2038. Beginning third withdrawal now shows number of 26,667

It's because you have a start date later than 2016. It's including 2016 and 2017 in the first third--when you're withdrawing nothing. Change to 2016 and you'll see $40k.

[nereo]

Nope does it for any values. Leave the default 1 mil starting and 40k draw and put in any 20 year start end date. I used 2018 to 2038. Beginning third withdrawal now shows number of 26,667

It's because you have a start date later than 2016. It's including 2016 and 2017 in the first third--when you're withdrawing nothing. Change to 2016 and you'll see $40k.

So how come if you make your starting date 2020 (or a number of future dates) it will go back to $40k?  It doesn't seem consisent, or even correct.

[forummm]

Nope does it for any values. Leave the default 1 mil starting and 40k draw and put in any 20 year start end date. I used 2018 to 2038. Beginning third withdrawal now shows number of 26,667

It's because you have a start date later than 2016. It's including 2016 and 2017 in the first third--when you're withdrawing nothing. Change to 2016 and you'll see $40k.

So how come if you make your starting date 2020 (or a number of future dates) it will go back to $40k?  It doesn't seem consisent, or even correct.

I don't get $40k doing 2020 to 2040. I get $13.3k.