I survived this polar vortex winter in Illinois using my 3-years old, cheap, molting, broken-zipper down coat. Since it wouldn't last another winter, I figured I'd take advantage of some end of season sales. So in March I snagged a warm, fluffy, gorgeous North Face coat for $200.
6 weeks later my advisor told us we were (probably, now definitely) moving to the LA area. Womp womp. I'm keeping it, but I feel like if I had known 6 weeks earlier this was even a possibility, I might have made do with the old coat or layers for the 2 weeks/year I might need something that heavy for the next two years, and bought a new coat IF I moved somewhere cold after grad school.