Author Topic: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution  (Read 12027 times)

mozar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #50 on: June 08, 2016, 06:41:43 PM »
Quote
i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.

Articles that talks about averages, not HCOL:
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-2014-inflation-1950-vs-2014-data-housing-cars-college/

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/report/2014/09/24/96903/the-middle-class-squeeze/

Recommended book:
The two income trap by elizabeth warren

An excerpt from The Two Income Trap
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_united_states_of_debt/2016/05/overspending_isn_t_why_americans_are_in_debt_an_excerpt_from_elizabeth_warren.html

ender

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #51 on: June 08, 2016, 07:05:20 PM »
Quote
i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.

Articles that talks about averages, not HCOL:
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-2014-inflation-1950-vs-2014-data-housing-cars-college/

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/report/2014/09/24/96903/the-middle-class-squeeze/

Recommended book:
The two income trap by elizabeth warren

An excerpt from The Two Income Trap
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_united_states_of_debt/2016/05/overspending_isn_t_why_americans_are_in_debt_an_excerpt_from_elizabeth_warren.html

You realize one of the main premises of the Two Income Trap is that people spend way too much on housing for <reasons> but actually spend much less on everything else than before, right, but since housing is a fixed non-variable expense when you buy a house they get trapped into requiring both incomes in order to support their lifestyle?

A key premise of that book is pretty solidly in support of how it is actually considerably cheaper now than 30 years ago to live for most things.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #52 on: June 09, 2016, 06:37:40 AM »
Quote
i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.

Articles that talks about averages, not HCOL:
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-2014-inflation-1950-vs-2014-data-housing-cars-college/

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/report/2014/09/24/96903/the-middle-class-squeeze/

Recommended book:
The two income trap by elizabeth warren

An excerpt from The Two Income Trap
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_united_states_of_debt/2016/05/overspending_isn_t_why_americans_are_in_debt_an_excerpt_from_elizabeth_warren.html

You realize one of the main premises of the Two Income Trap is that people spend way too much on housing for <reasons> but actually spend much less on everything else than before, right, but since housing is a fixed non-variable expense when you buy a house they get trapped into requiring both incomes in order to support their lifestyle?

A key premise of that book is pretty solidly in support of how it is actually considerably cheaper now than 30 years ago to live for most things.

i love how one of his references actually supports my arguement.  thanks. 

i still dont see how in a forum about optimizing lifestyle and spending there is a big uproar about "how expensive life is now compared to 30 years ago"  houseing has gone up b/c of the GIANT F"N HOUSES PEOPLE BUY.  but you're still focusing on a few key things.  the "middle class squeeze"  thats just b/c everyone spends too much money.  everyone has cell phones and cable TV and new cars, they go out to eat, everything this forum is against is what the avg american thinks they "DESERVE" 

the median household income is 51329 in the united states so thats middle class b/c its middle salary.  let construct a very nice lifestyle off of this in KC where this is on the lower side of the median household income. 

Family of 4 - i'll include daycare in this too as thats the most expensive time in their life b/c they are in one of the top 2 school districts in the KC area in this home

Housing
http://www.reecenichols.com/homes-for-sale/3213-SW-Tiara-Lane-Lees-Summit-MO-64082-179017919
Monthly payment 1060 including taxes an insurance and HOA fees

Food
600/month

Childcare
1000/month - 125 a week per child.  i have friends paying this in this area for affordable and great in home care.

Gas
300/month

Health Insurance
200/month

House maint
150/month

Car maint
100/month

Misc.
300/month

Taxes are basically nothing for this family. 

Monthly spend - 3610
annual spend - 43320

amount available to save - 8009  savings rate = 15.6% and thats not counting if we can get them the savers credit which would get them a little bump.  thats a pretty sweet saving rate for a family spending quite a bit of money on a middle class life in america.  and we didnt even optimize their life yet.  plus once the kids get to school that 12k a year on childcare can be pumped into savings.  and all this is done by both parents making an avg of 12 dollars per hour each.  thats not an insanely high wage to make for someone who has decided to start a family.

they dont need a house this expensive on this income ... the daycare cost will largely go away in a few years.  so how is it so hard to live now adays? they are blowing 300 a month on either cell phones/dinners/cable/clothes/travel etc.  they are spending a ton on groceries. 

so how i ask you is this not possible to live what i would say is a reasonbly baller life on 12bucks an hour 2 income family that could be optimized even further if they chose to be more frugal.

davisgang90

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #53 on: June 09, 2016, 07:14:44 AM »
Quote
i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.

Articles that talks about averages, not HCOL:
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-2014-inflation-1950-vs-2014-data-housing-cars-college/

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/report/2014/09/24/96903/the-middle-class-squeeze/

Recommended book:
The two income trap by elizabeth warren

An excerpt from The Two Income Trap
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_united_states_of_debt/2016/05/overspending_isn_t_why_americans_are_in_debt_an_excerpt_from_elizabeth_warren.html

You realize one of the main premises of the Two Income Trap is that people spend way too much on housing for <reasons> but actually spend much less on everything else than before, right, but since housing is a fixed non-variable expense when you buy a house they get trapped into requiring both incomes in order to support their lifestyle?

A key premise of that book is pretty solidly in support of how it is actually considerably cheaper now than 30 years ago to live for most things.

i love how one of his references actually supports my arguement.  thanks. 

i still dont see how in a forum about optimizing lifestyle and spending there is a big uproar about "how expensive life is now compared to 30 years ago"  houseing has gone up b/c of the GIANT F"N HOUSES PEOPLE BUY.  but you're still focusing on a few key things.  the "middle class squeeze"  thats just b/c everyone spends too much money.  everyone has cell phones and cable TV and new cars, they go out to eat, everything this forum is against is what the avg american thinks they "DESERVE" 

the median household income is 51329 in the united states so thats middle class b/c its middle salary.  let construct a very nice lifestyle off of this in KC where this is on the lower side of the median household income. 

Family of 4 - i'll include daycare in this too as thats the most expensive time in their life b/c they are in one of the top 2 school districts in the KC area in this home

Housing
http://www.reecenichols.com/homes-for-sale/3213-SW-Tiara-Lane-Lees-Summit-MO-64082-179017919
Monthly payment 1060 including taxes an insurance and HOA fees

Food
600/month

Childcare
1000/month - 125 a week per child.  i have friends paying this in this area for affordable and great in home care.

Gas
300/month

Health Insurance
200/month

House maint
150/month

Car maint
100/month

Misc.
300/month

Taxes are basically nothing for this family. 

Monthly spend - 3610
annual spend - 43320

amount available to save - 8009  savings rate = 15.6% and thats not counting if we can get them the savers credit which would get them a little bump.  thats a pretty sweet saving rate for a family spending quite a bit of money on a middle class life in america.  and we didnt even optimize their life yet.  plus once the kids get to school that 12k a year on childcare can be pumped into savings.  and all this is done by both parents making an avg of 12 dollars per hour each.  thats not an insanely high wage to make for someone who has decided to start a family.

they dont need a house this expensive on this income ... the daycare cost will largely go away in a few years.  so how is it so hard to live now adays? they are blowing 300 a month on either cell phones/dinners/cable/clothes/travel etc.  they are spending a ton on groceries. 

so how i ask you is this not possible to live what i would say is a reasonbly baller life on 12bucks an hour 2 income family that could be optimized even further if they chose to be more frugal.
Cool argument and off topic.  Get your own thread!

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #54 on: June 09, 2016, 07:16:35 AM »
Quote
i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.

Articles that talks about averages, not HCOL:
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-2014-inflation-1950-vs-2014-data-housing-cars-college/

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/report/2014/09/24/96903/the-middle-class-squeeze/

Recommended book:
The two income trap by elizabeth warren

An excerpt from The Two Income Trap
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_united_states_of_debt/2016/05/overspending_isn_t_why_americans_are_in_debt_an_excerpt_from_elizabeth_warren.html

You realize one of the main premises of the Two Income Trap is that people spend way too much on housing for <reasons> but actually spend much less on everything else than before, right, but since housing is a fixed non-variable expense when you buy a house they get trapped into requiring both incomes in order to support their lifestyle?

A key premise of that book is pretty solidly in support of how it is actually considerably cheaper now than 30 years ago to live for most things.

i love how one of his references actually supports my arguement.  thanks. 

i still dont see how in a forum about optimizing lifestyle and spending there is a big uproar about "how expensive life is now compared to 30 years ago"  houseing has gone up b/c of the GIANT F"N HOUSES PEOPLE BUY.  but you're still focusing on a few key things.  the "middle class squeeze"  thats just b/c everyone spends too much money.  everyone has cell phones and cable TV and new cars, they go out to eat, everything this forum is against is what the avg american thinks they "DESERVE" 

the median household income is 51329 in the united states so thats middle class b/c its middle salary.  let construct a very nice lifestyle off of this in KC where this is on the lower side of the median household income. 

Family of 4 - i'll include daycare in this too as thats the most expensive time in their life b/c they are in one of the top 2 school districts in the KC area in this home

Housing
http://www.reecenichols.com/homes-for-sale/3213-SW-Tiara-Lane-Lees-Summit-MO-64082-179017919
Monthly payment 1060 including taxes an insurance and HOA fees

Food
600/month

Childcare
1000/month - 125 a week per child.  i have friends paying this in this area for affordable and great in home care.

Gas
300/month

Health Insurance
200/month

House maint
150/month

Car maint
100/month

Misc.
300/month

Taxes are basically nothing for this family. 

Monthly spend - 3610
annual spend - 43320

amount available to save - 8009  savings rate = 15.6% and thats not counting if we can get them the savers credit which would get them a little bump.  thats a pretty sweet saving rate for a family spending quite a bit of money on a middle class life in america.  and we didnt even optimize their life yet.  plus once the kids get to school that 12k a year on childcare can be pumped into savings.  and all this is done by both parents making an avg of 12 dollars per hour each.  thats not an insanely high wage to make for someone who has decided to start a family.

they dont need a house this expensive on this income ... the daycare cost will largely go away in a few years.  so how is it so hard to live now adays? they are blowing 300 a month on either cell phones/dinners/cable/clothes/travel etc.  they are spending a ton on groceries. 

so how i ask you is this not possible to live what i would say is a reasonbly baller life on 12bucks an hour 2 income family that could be optimized even further if they chose to be more frugal.
Cool argument and off topic.  Get your own thread!

thanks for your great input to the thread that was obviously on topic. wait nope it wasnt

mozar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #55 on: June 09, 2016, 10:21:38 AM »
"Reasons" are actually pretty important, as no one lives in a vacuum. I don't understand why the increase in housing and education costs over the past 30 years is so hard to understand. And rampant consumerism is just a myth. It costs more to live and income is less now than 30 years ago.

 Whatever one thinks the solutions are my point is that automation isn't really the issue. Paul Krugman has research on this that we could choose as a society to have full employment if we wanted to, regardless of automation.

So hypothetical middle class households could be saving 15% and instead they save more like 5%. First we are assuming that those households exist though we know that it's gotten harder to find jobs that give full time hours. Second, so what? Instead of begrudging people for spending an extra 5k a year instead of saving it (how is it my business anyway what people spend their money on?) I'm more interested in discussing incentives, psychology, economics etc, instead of the same old blame the victim-ism, which doesn't get us anywhere.
I also have to remind myself that when MMM talks about complainy pants he's not talking about middle income families who could be saving an extra 5k a year. He's talking about his friends and neighbors make better than a middle class salary but blow way more than 5k a year on ridiculousness.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #56 on: June 09, 2016, 11:59:01 AM »
Also going back to middle income is again not the question the OP asked. He mentioned unskilled labour/working class not middle class incomes. Although its a slight generalization I would say taking the average for high school graduates over 25 is fair enough for unskilled labour/working class. Sure there are people that make more than average with just a high school degree, but then again the number is being skewed up since it is considering everyone with a high school degree which includes people with college/university degrees. It also includes people like me who though only getting a high school degree still attended some college and dropped out for non academic reasons and are definitely not doing unskilled labour. However for people with at least a high school education over 25 the average income is 32k. Much less than the 51k mentioned before.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #57 on: June 09, 2016, 05:10:52 PM »
Also going back to middle income is again not the question the OP asked. He mentioned unskilled labour/working class not middle class incomes. Although its a slight generalization I would say taking the average for high school graduates over 25 is fair enough for unskilled labour/working class. Sure there are people that make more than average with just a high school degree, but then again the number is being skewed up since it is considering everyone with a high school degree which includes people with college/university degrees. It also includes people like me who though only getting a high school degree still attended some college and dropped out for non academic reasons and are definitely not doing unskilled labour. However for people with at least a high school education over 25 the average income is 32k. Much less than the 51k mentioned before.

I've noticed, as a general condition, that the people who yell, "You're just complaining" usually speak in anecdotes and tend to avoid 1) supporting their beliefs with empirical data and 2) ignoring other people's recommendations.

The funny thing is being accused of complaining or being complainypants when none of these things affect me in the least making an upper middle class/upper class income. Also a big reason i feel I was able to go from a working class family to an upper class income is growing up in a country where despite my working class family I was able to receive a healthy diet and nothing stopped me from going to school and learning.

The problem seems you have two extremes where one side says it's luck so why even try working for it if you weren't born with a golden spoon in your mouth. Problem here is that yes things suck and you could work hard and may still fail, but not trying guarantees it. Then on the other side you have the people that are unwilling to admit that anything but their hard work was involved.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 05:15:03 PM by prognastat »

davisgang90

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #58 on: June 10, 2016, 03:52:36 AM »
"Reasons" are actually pretty important, as no one lives in a vacuum. I don't understand why the increase in housing and education costs over the past 30 years is so hard to understand. And rampant consumerism is just a myth. It costs more to live and income is less now than 30 years ago.

 Whatever one thinks the solutions are my point is that automation isn't really the issue. Paul Krugman has research on this that we could choose as a society to have full employment if we wanted to, regardless of automation.

So hypothetical middle class households could be saving 15% and instead they save more like 5%. First we are assuming that those households exist though we know that it's gotten harder to find jobs that give full time hours. Second, so what? Instead of begrudging people for spending an extra 5k a year instead of saving it (how is it my business anyway what people spend their money on?) I'm more interested in discussing incentives, psychology, economics etc, instead of the same old blame the victim-ism, which doesn't get us anywhere.
I also have to remind myself that when MMM talks about complainy pants he's not talking about middle income families who could be saving an extra 5k a year. He's talking about his friends and neighbors make better than a middle class salary but blow way more than 5k a year on ridiculousness.
Not sure I'm going to take Paul Krugman's research to heart.  His track record ain't great when it comes to his understanding of innovation and technology.  "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."

mozar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #59 on: June 11, 2016, 11:28:52 AM »
Quote
Not sure I'm going to take Paul Krugman's research to heart.  His track record ain't great when it comes to his understanding of innovation and technology.  "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."
I'm not taking his research to "heart," I'm merely representing his research as something to look up on the topic of automation, if interested. And I wouldn't be surprised if he still thinks the internet is no more useful than a fax machine. He may have no use for the internet himself. All economists have their own biases/ interests/ etc.

Quote
The funny thing is being accused of complaining or being complainypants when none of these things affect me in the least making an upper middle class/upper class income. Also a big reason i feel I was able to go from a working class family to an upper class income is growing up in a country where despite my working class family I was able to receive a healthy diet and nothing stopped me from going to school and learning.
I believe that upward mobility is a myth. You can google "upward mobility is a myth" if you want research about it. My own anecdote is that I grew up upper middle class and I didn't have access to a healthy diet and a lot of things stopped me from going to school and learning but I remain in the upper middle class (fingers crossed!)

Quote
The problem seems you have two extremes where one side says it's luck so why even try working for it if you weren't born with a golden spoon in your mouth. Problem here is that yes things suck and you could work hard and may still fail, but not trying guarantees it. Then on the other side you have the people that are unwilling to admit that anything but their hard work was involved

I do feel like giving up sometimes because I have to work harder than my peers because of how I look. But I also feel lucky to live in this era because someone like me would have had no opportunities to do better in life in the past. For example my grandmother was a janitor. No pulling herself up by her bootstraps, no saying "you can do it!" no networking, etc was ever going to mean that someone was going to give her a chance at another job or to work herself up. I think the most important point is that privilege, like everything in life, is nuanced


davisgang90

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #60 on: June 12, 2016, 04:30:01 AM »
Quote
Not sure I'm going to take Paul Krugman's research to heart.  His track record ain't great when it comes to his understanding of innovation and technology.  "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."
I'm not taking his research to "heart," I'm merely representing his research as something to look up on the topic of automation, if interested. And I wouldn't be surprised if he still thinks the internet is no more useful than a fax machine. He may have no use for the internet himself. All economists have their own biases/ interests/ etc.
I would say an economist that thinks the Internet's impact on the economy (not its usefulness) is no more of an impact than the fax machine is not grounded in reality (I don't think Krugman thinks this.  I also don't think he has a very good track record regarding tech). 

My point, and the point of the original video, is that we are witnessing a dramatic shift in automation unlike anything we've seen before.  Maybe it won't be as big an impact as some of us have laid out, but based on my research, I think it will have a huge impact on our lives.

dragoncar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #61 on: June 13, 2016, 10:56:58 AM »
When to robot overlords take our jobs, we will all have time to argue all day with strangers on the Internet. It will be a golden age of discourse

mozar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #62 on: June 13, 2016, 01:05:43 PM »
Sigh. The robot overlords don't even need to take my job for me to have time to argue all day on a work day.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #63 on: June 13, 2016, 01:53:31 PM »
Sigh. The robot overlords don't even need to take my job for me to have time to argue all day on a work day.

yeah 8 hour work days are worthless.