Author Topic: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution  (Read 12021 times)

BigBangWeary

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Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« on: June 05, 2016, 11:48:13 PM »
Assuming you buy into this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&feature=youtu.be

Or something similar ... Do you ever think about how such technological change, in terms of job replacement and disruption of traditional income and wealth creation, might impact your life, or your children's lives?

I am a bit of a futurologist geek, but I believe more and more governments and everyday people are waking up to just how big of paradigm shift this is likely to be.

When I was a kid, my father worked at a factory while my mom stayed home and looked after us kids. We lived in a nice three bedroom house with a big yard, and traveled once a year. Today, that lifestyle would take two incomes and the family would likely be struggling. Dad and mom would both need to be better educated than my parents were, and work higher skilled jobs.

Play this out in terms of automation and smart (learning) robots, and I think we will have an even bigger change than that brought on by free trade.

What do you think? How are you positioning or planning for this (as a parent of young children, I am thinking of them too)?

Metric Mouse

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2016, 12:26:58 AM »
When I was a kid, my father worked at a factory while my mom stayed home and looked after us kids. We lived in a nice three bedroom house with a big yard, and traveled once a year. Today, that lifestyle would take two incomes and the family would likely be struggling. Dad and mom would both need to be better educated than my parents were, and work higher skilled jobs.

I guess if you truly believe that, then I can understand how the future being different and better than it is now would be something to be concerned about...

ender

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2016, 06:46:24 AM »
What do you think? How are you positioning or planning for this (as a parent of young children, I am thinking of them too)?

I've transitioned into being a software developer, which in some ways is planning for this.

I think there are valid concerns with automation causing a large percentage of unskilled labor to become less relevant. You can see this in fast food/retail already, self checkouts and automated food dispensers are eventually going to become cost effective across the board.

maizeman

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2016, 07:13:43 AM »
Don't laugh, but this is one of the little thoughts in the back of my head about reasons to pursue FI if not RE. I don't work in a field that seems particularly susceptible to automation, but I am also conscious of that fact that people have a bias towards assuming our career is different.

Quote
Portion of Americans who think that most of the work currently done by humans will be automated in fifty years : 2/3
Who think their job will still exist in its current form : 4/5

Also, I work with enough computer scientists that I get to see first hand just how impressively rapidly neural network/deep learning type AI is being applied to more and more tasks that used to be only performed by humans. So having a job where most of my work is based on thinking and communicating may not make me as secure as I'd like to think.

Most folks on this forum seem to subscribe to the view that their children will be able to work their way through (a good public) university and go into a career that will allow their children to save for FIRE on their own. However the sort of unskilled jobs a high schooler or college student could get to pay for college are the ones currently being automated by robotics, and the jobs someone might get when they graduate from college are the ones my CS colleagues are currently trying to automate now.

I'm still a few years from FI, but once I hit my own personal number, I could see having a mental struggle over whether to work for some more years so that I'd have enough extra stashed away to provide for the next generation if we take the worse case path of destroying the majority of currently existing jobs without creating an equivalent number of new jobs we cannot imagine yet today. The trade off here would be that data suggests children who never have to work for anything in their lives tend to not turn out all that well, so if my kids ended up being employable I'd likely need to just pretend that extra money didn't exist and those extra years of work would be for nothing.

bobechs

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2016, 07:17:41 AM »
As far as children, it looks like the safest bet is to only have robot children.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2016, 07:19:47 AM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio. 

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2016, 08:08:56 AM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio.

He said unskilled labour not middle income. He also said kids so I am assuming at minimum 2 kids and 2 parents.

The average income for a full-time working highs school graduate over 25 is about 32k. That would make mortgaging a 3 bedroom house with 2 kids and a SAHP pretty tight. I own a relatively small 3 bedroom myself in a not HCOL nor LCOL area and all costs(mortgage, insurance taxes etc) included just the house costs me almost 20k per year. That would leave the 32k earner at only 12k to cover all other expenses. I would say it is possibly if they lived mustachian, but even then they might be skipping the holiday or at least making it a cheaper local option such a camping out in-state. They are also likely not saving much if anything for retirement.

As for the original topic itself I would say its hard to say. Robotics and AI have the possibility of ending many jobs and potentially more than we have seen before and even in fields many might consider immune. The "artistic" field is not going to be able to handle the load of that many extra people so i doubt everyone is just going to be doing creative stuff, plus there isn't even a guarantee a sufficiently advanced AI could not do art. I would say our society as it stands right now is not equipped to deal with it and I hope we will start to prepare for it in the near future. Just self driving cars alone are going to cause a pretty massive shift.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 08:14:27 AM by prognastat »

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2016, 08:32:07 AM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio.

He said unskilled labour not middle income. He also said kids so I am assuming at minimum 2 kids and 2 parents.

The average income for a full-time working highs school graduate over 25 is about 32k. That would make mortgaging a 3 bedroom house with 2 kids and a SAHP pretty tight. I own a relatively small 3 bedroom myself in a not HCOL nor LCOL area and all costs(mortgage, insurance taxes etc) included just the house costs me almost 20k per year. That would leave the 32k earner at only 12k to cover all other expenses. I would say it is possibly if they lived mustachian, but even then they might be skipping the holiday or at least making it a cheaper local option such a camping out in-state. They are also likely not saving much if anything for retirement.

As for the original topic itself I would say its hard to say. Robotics and AI have the possibility of ending many jobs and potentially more than we have seen before and even in fields many might consider immune. The "artistic" field is not going to be able to handle the load of that many extra people so i doubt everyone is just going to be doing creative stuff, plus there isn't even a guarantee a sufficiently advanced AI could not do art. I would say our society as it stands right now is not equipped to deal with it and I hope we will start to prepare for it in the near future. Just self driving cars alone are going to cause a pretty massive shift.

you probably make more than 32k a family making 32k should not buy a home that costs them 20k a year.  around here you can find 3 bedroom apt.'s for 500-700 a month.  i dont quite see why you're trying to argue something like this isnt possible in a forum of frugal people.

acroy

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2016, 08:32:50 AM »
This is nothing new, it's just gotten popular in the press again recently.
Every 10yrs or so the popular imagination is captured (again) by the idea (fear) of an automated, robotic future.

Automation/robotics = doing more with less. It is a Good Thing. A higher standard of living will be possible with less work. Will the world change? yes. The change has been ongoing for hundreds if not thousands of years, c'mon! Embrace it!

(imagine ancient hunter-gatherers watching the weird tribe member, Bob, planting seeds and tending his garden):
"shit, look at that guy, disrupting the system, who does he think he is anyway? He's put 3 of us out of work, since he can feed 4 people! the hell is he doing anyway? doesn't he know that our entire way of life depends on doing exactly what we've always been doing? Sure, it's a lot less work to get the same amount of food, but what will everyone else do with themselves with all that free time? All they know how to do is what they've always done! Change is scary!"

Think this is extreme? nope. Individuals, leaders, cultures fear change to one extent or another. It is the cultures/countries that embrace change which improves the world. Look at China: they had a huge bout of innovation way back when, inventing all kinds of stuff. Then something happened and it stopped, dead-nuts stopped, for hundreds or thousands of years. Change and innovation was actively punished. in the 80's their leadership realized they were more or less doomed, so turned themselves into the Factory of the World. But they still don't innovate. Their culture is so risk-averse that they are great imitators, but do not innovate. They have an enormous fear of failure. Try something, fail, and it is a huge disgrace.

I'm painting with a broad brush, of course there are exceptions, but by and large the above is true.

mozar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2016, 10:41:12 AM »
I think the OP is conflating a few different issues: union busting, deregulation, jobs moving overseas, etc,  which will be a bigger cause of inequality and decrease in the middle class in the near future, imo.

Automation is a separate but interrelated issue. Currently there is no reason for my job. It could easily be automated. But two government agencies were required to be combined. And now the heads of both agencies are mad at eachother, so they brought in consultants to help them get along. I imagine that there are many jobs are like mine, they could be automated today if it weren't for the higher-ups sheer stupidity.

Anyways I think the question about children is a good one. I plan to raise my (unborn) children to think of themselves as members of the capital class so the question of whether middle class jobs exist is irrelevant to them.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2016, 11:16:48 AM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio.

He said unskilled labour not middle income. He also said kids so I am assuming at minimum 2 kids and 2 parents.

The average income for a full-time working highs school graduate over 25 is about 32k. That would make mortgaging a 3 bedroom house with 2 kids and a SAHP pretty tight. I own a relatively small 3 bedroom myself in a not HCOL nor LCOL area and all costs(mortgage, insurance taxes etc) included just the house costs me almost 20k per year. That would leave the 32k earner at only 12k to cover all other expenses. I would say it is possibly if they lived mustachian, but even then they might be skipping the holiday or at least making it a cheaper local option such a camping out in-state. They are also likely not saving much if anything for retirement.

As for the original topic itself I would say its hard to say. Robotics and AI have the possibility of ending many jobs and potentially more than we have seen before and even in fields many might consider immune. The "artistic" field is not going to be able to handle the load of that many extra people so i doubt everyone is just going to be doing creative stuff, plus there isn't even a guarantee a sufficiently advanced AI could not do art. I would say our society as it stands right now is not equipped to deal with it and I hope we will start to prepare for it in the near future. Just self driving cars alone are going to cause a pretty massive shift.

you probably make more than 32k a family making 32k should not buy a home that costs them 20k a year.  around here you can find 3 bedroom apt.'s for 500-700 a month.  i dont quite see why you're trying to argue something like this isnt possible in a forum of frugal people.

Indeed I do, but I am not in the unskilled labour market. Your original post says "i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest. " after the original poster said that he grew up with 1 working parent who did unskilled labour work owned a 3 bedroom house and had kids so at least 2 and possibly more along with going on a vacation once a year. If you then move the goalpost to saying renting a 3 bedroom apartment then you are conceding that you can't live that lifestyle using a single income family these days.

It's not like I am living in some crazy expensive house its about 1500 sq ft and 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom. So my costs are actually below what most people not on this forum would consider normal for my income.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 11:18:28 AM by prognastat »

trashmanz

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2016, 11:20:26 AM »
I can't get by the false assumption that you need dual income to have a home and go on a vacation once a year.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2016, 11:27:32 AM »
I can't get by the false assumption that you need dual income to have a home and go on a vacation once a year.

That is not the assumption though.

It is not saying you can't get by own a home and go on vacation once a year without dual income.

It is that it is no longer the norm for unskilled labour workers to be able to maintain that lifestyle.

That doesn't mean that if you aren't unskilled labour you can't, that doesn't mean that a minority of unskilled labour workers might be able to get that.

The thing you have to prove is that the lifestyle is available to the majority of people in unskilled labour.

maizeman

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2016, 11:47:32 AM »
Anyways I think the question about children is a good one. I plan to raise my (unborn) children to think of themselves as members of the capital class so the question of whether middle class jobs exist is irrelevant to them.

I'd be interested to see a thread on this point actually. When the topic of children comes up, it had seemed to me like most are assuming their kids will have to go out into the world and, if they are interested in FIRE, earn it with the sweat of their own brows.  Anyway, it would be fascinated to discuss how to raise children with the expectation they'd never have a middle class job without ending up with entitled children who'd be firmly on the path to shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations. But I fear I'm running a bit too far off the OP's topic.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2016, 12:19:30 PM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio.

He said unskilled labour not middle income. He also said kids so I am assuming at minimum 2 kids and 2 parents.

The average income for a full-time working highs school graduate over 25 is about 32k. That would make mortgaging a 3 bedroom house with 2 kids and a SAHP pretty tight. I own a relatively small 3 bedroom myself in a not HCOL nor LCOL area and all costs(mortgage, insurance taxes etc) included just the house costs me almost 20k per year. That would leave the 32k earner at only 12k to cover all other expenses. I would say it is possibly if they lived mustachian, but even then they might be skipping the holiday or at least making it a cheaper local option such a camping out in-state. They are also likely not saving much if anything for retirement.

As for the original topic itself I would say its hard to say. Robotics and AI have the possibility of ending many jobs and potentially more than we have seen before and even in fields many might consider immune. The "artistic" field is not going to be able to handle the load of that many extra people so i doubt everyone is just going to be doing creative stuff, plus there isn't even a guarantee a sufficiently advanced AI could not do art. I would say our society as it stands right now is not equipped to deal with it and I hope we will start to prepare for it in the near future. Just self driving cars alone are going to cause a pretty massive shift.

you probably make more than 32k a family making 32k should not buy a home that costs them 20k a year.  around here you can find 3 bedroom apt.'s for 500-700 a month.  i dont quite see why you're trying to argue something like this isnt possible in a forum of frugal people.

Indeed I do, but I am not in the unskilled labour market. Your original post says "i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest. " after the original poster said that he grew up with 1 working parent who did unskilled labour work owned a 3 bedroom house and had kids so at least 2 and possibly more along with going on a vacation once a year. If you then move the goalpost to saying renting a 3 bedroom apartment then you are conceding that you can't live that lifestyle using a single income family these days.

It's not like I am living in some crazy expensive house its about 1500 sq ft and 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom. So my costs are actually below what most people not on this forum would consider normal for my income.

lets keep it with home ownership then. 

a 200k house has an annual payment of 12000 still far below your 20k quoted.  a person living on 32k a year shouldnt have a 500k house.   you're arguement holds little to no water.  its just a complainy pants arguement ... man its impossible to buy a 400k house on a 32k a year income.  well no crap it probably is.  but plenty here could live on a 32k salary and own a home and take one vacation with 2 children annually.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2016, 12:21:17 PM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio.

He said unskilled labour not middle income. He also said kids so I am assuming at minimum 2 kids and 2 parents.

The average income for a full-time working highs school graduate over 25 is about 32k. That would make mortgaging a 3 bedroom house with 2 kids and a SAHP pretty tight. I own a relatively small 3 bedroom myself in a not HCOL nor LCOL area and all costs(mortgage, insurance taxes etc) included just the house costs me almost 20k per year. That would leave the 32k earner at only 12k to cover all other expenses. I would say it is possibly if they lived mustachian, but even then they might be skipping the holiday or at least making it a cheaper local option such a camping out in-state. They are also likely not saving much if anything for retirement.

As for the original topic itself I would say its hard to say. Robotics and AI have the possibility of ending many jobs and potentially more than we have seen before and even in fields many might consider immune. The "artistic" field is not going to be able to handle the load of that many extra people so i doubt everyone is just going to be doing creative stuff, plus there isn't even a guarantee a sufficiently advanced AI could not do art. I would say our society as it stands right now is not equipped to deal with it and I hope we will start to prepare for it in the near future. Just self driving cars alone are going to cause a pretty massive shift.

you probably make more than 32k a family making 32k should not buy a home that costs them 20k a year.  around here you can find 3 bedroom apt.'s for 500-700 a month.  i dont quite see why you're trying to argue something like this isnt possible in a forum of frugal people.

Indeed I do, but I am not in the unskilled labour market. Your original post says "i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest. " after the original poster said that he grew up with 1 working parent who did unskilled labour work owned a 3 bedroom house and had kids so at least 2 and possibly more along with going on a vacation once a year. If you then move the goalpost to saying renting a 3 bedroom apartment then you are conceding that you can't live that lifestyle using a single income family these days.

It's not like I am living in some crazy expensive house its about 1500 sq ft and 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom. So my costs are actually below what most people not on this forum would consider normal for my income.

lets keep it with home ownership then. 

a 200k house has an annual payment of 12000 still far below your 20k quoted.  a person living on 32k a year shouldnt have a 500k house.   you're arguement holds little to no water.  its just a complainy pants arguement ... man its impossible to buy a 400k house on a 32k a year income.  well no crap it probably is.  but plenty here could live on a 32k salary and own a home and take one vacation with 2 children annually.

I said house costs not a mortgage payment alone. There are far more costs involved with owning a home. I am talking about the mortgage + taxes + insurance + maintenance. My property taxes alone are about 4k a year. Insurance is about another 1.2k. It along with about roughly 500 in maintenance though this can vary a lot from year to year. Puts me just below 20k like I said before.

Now I didn't say you couldn't live off the leftover 12k, but it wouldn't be comfortable and chances are you probably wouldn't be going on a very nice vacation or saving a lot for retirement or kids wanting to go to college. Chances are said family would be spending at least 500 a month on food so thats about 6k out of that 12k already. Chances are they would be spending another 2k a year in car costs when counting maintenance, fuel and insurance. Now we are down to 4k. Thats not a lot to cover everything else and do anything more than the cheapest of possible vacations, save for college or their retirement.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2016, 12:37:40 PM by prognastat »

Tyson

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2016, 12:35:46 PM »
Low income/skill jobs are going to continue to diminish.  The key is not to lament their loss.  The key is to train/educate the displaced workers so that they can participate in higher skilled jobs so they can continue to be relevant in the changing economy.  We should have been doing this already, but humans in society seem to be really terrible about planning for the future.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2016, 12:39:09 PM »
Low income/skill jobs are going to continue to diminish.  The key is not to lament their loss.  The key is to train/educate the displaced workers so that they can participate in higher skilled jobs so they can continue to be relevant in the changing economy.  We should have been doing this already, but humans in society seem to be really terrible about planning for the future.

Not everyone is going to be educate able to do a higher skilled job and even if they could the influx of labour in to those fields would lower the value of them causing additional problems if new fields don't happen.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2016, 12:53:10 PM »
i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest.

but to your original question

I dont like to dwell on the future and things outside of my contorl.  what i do like to do is plan so i dont have to worry about anything.  Being an engineer i'm on the side thats helping create this automation.  Being frugal and planning for FIRE makes it so i wont have to care if i end up automating my job away.  i'll be profiting from my investments in the US stock market which will include these companies producing this intelligence at part of its portfolio.

He said unskilled labour not middle income. He also said kids so I am assuming at minimum 2 kids and 2 parents.

The average income for a full-time working highs school graduate over 25 is about 32k. That would make mortgaging a 3 bedroom house with 2 kids and a SAHP pretty tight. I own a relatively small 3 bedroom myself in a not HCOL nor LCOL area and all costs(mortgage, insurance taxes etc) included just the house costs me almost 20k per year. That would leave the 32k earner at only 12k to cover all other expenses. I would say it is possibly if they lived mustachian, but even then they might be skipping the holiday or at least making it a cheaper local option such a camping out in-state. They are also likely not saving much if anything for retirement.

As for the original topic itself I would say its hard to say. Robotics and AI have the possibility of ending many jobs and potentially more than we have seen before and even in fields many might consider immune. The "artistic" field is not going to be able to handle the load of that many extra people so i doubt everyone is just going to be doing creative stuff, plus there isn't even a guarantee a sufficiently advanced AI could not do art. I would say our society as it stands right now is not equipped to deal with it and I hope we will start to prepare for it in the near future. Just self driving cars alone are going to cause a pretty massive shift.

you probably make more than 32k a family making 32k should not buy a home that costs them 20k a year.  around here you can find 3 bedroom apt.'s for 500-700 a month.  i dont quite see why you're trying to argue something like this isnt possible in a forum of frugal people.

Indeed I do, but I am not in the unskilled labour market. Your original post says "i dont get your point that you cant have a three bedroom house and a SAHP and go on one vacation a year on a middle income salary - i think this is entirely possible - kinda surprised to see that in a post on these forums to be honest. " after the original poster said that he grew up with 1 working parent who did unskilled labour work owned a 3 bedroom house and had kids so at least 2 and possibly more along with going on a vacation once a year. If you then move the goalpost to saying renting a 3 bedroom apartment then you are conceding that you can't live that lifestyle using a single income family these days.

It's not like I am living in some crazy expensive house its about 1500 sq ft and 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom. So my costs are actually below what most people not on this forum would consider normal for my income.

lets keep it with home ownership then. 

a 200k house has an annual payment of 12000 still far below your 20k quoted.  a person living on 32k a year shouldnt have a 500k house.   you're arguement holds little to no water.  its just a complainy pants arguement ... man its impossible to buy a 400k house on a 32k a year income.  well no crap it probably is.  but plenty here could live on a 32k salary and own a home and take one vacation with 2 children annually.

I said house costs not a mortgage payment alone. There are far more costs involved with owning a home. I am talking about the mortgage + taxes + insurance + maintenance. My property taxes alone are about 4k a year. Insurance is about another 1.2k. It along with about roughly 500 in maintenance though this can vary a lot from year to year. Puts me just below 20k like I said before.

Now I didn't say you couldn't live off the leftover 12k, but it wouldn't be comfortable and chances are you probably wouldn't be going on a very nice vacation or saving a lot for retirement or kids wanting to go to college. Chances are said family would be spending at least 500 a month on food so thats about 6k out of that 12k already. Chances are they would be spending another 2k a year in car costs when counting maintenance, fuel and insurance. Now we are down to 4k. Thats not a lot to cover everything else and do anything more than the cheapest of possible vacations, save for college or their retirement.

i just went to hawaii for 10 days for free with first class flights and a rental car jeep in 5 star hotels.  care to elaborate on how much you spend on what you consider nice vacations.  also going on a european cruise for 11 days with booze included in december for a net cost of 0 - staying in a balcony cabin. you're just making the general complainy pants complaints.  is it easy no is it possible yes.  you're trying to claim its not possible thats the only arguement you can make here ... kids can foot their own college bill if you're in this situation and they should.  retirement esp. early isnt for everyone but if you live on that income then social security will support you when you reach that age that it distributes.  the statement OP made was that both parents would have to work and that is simply not true.  that lifestyle can be obtained. my 200k house was a stretch and they likely shouldnt be in that.  plenty of 3 bed 2 bath homes in reasonable shape can be had for 100-120k in my area of the country.  it is 100% possible to raise a family today as OP stated.  i'd almost argue its easier with the internet and the amount of information you can use to your advantage to get things for cheap or free.

mozar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2016, 02:02:37 PM »
Anybody who thinks that you can have a middle class lifestyle on one income should read the two income trap by Elizabeth Warren.
My only hope for our (human) future is that US governments are realizing that free birth control saves money. In Colorado they did a program where they gave free long lasting birth control to teens and up. Every dollar saved almost 5 dollars in government funding and the teen birth rate declined by almost half. If this is implemented everywhere we will have less of a problem with jobs because there will be fewer people. It will be a bumpy ride until then.
@maizeman That's a good idea for a thread, I'll post one if someone else doesn't. Just got to think of a title...

fattest_foot

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2016, 02:34:38 PM »
I agree with you 100 percent and find it rather difficult to believe that the person you quoted said what they said. 

OP, I just finished reading the Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford.  I think most people, even most people on this forum, don't grasp the potential of the Robotics Revolution. 

I've been thinking for the past few days: is it even worth saving a lot for a retirement now if you believe that AI will make 50% unemployment the norm over the next 20-30 years?

What would the impact on the markets be when so many people don't have good jobs (ones that support a middle class or higher lifestyle)? Would the markets crash, rally, etc.?

Martin Ford mentions that technological advancement is exponential.  Are we at/nearing a peak in the economy in which the market's growth will only be marginal from now on?  Look at the full chart of the NYSE and you'll see, more or less, an exponential growth trend.  In order to keep up, we need HUGE returns.  I think many can agree... those aren't coming.

I've been thinking about this often as well.

My thoughts go towards the potential for near complete automation and whether money will still be a thing. Or maybe it gets to the point where everyone is provided a basic living allowance, will my portfolio be worth anything? Will it allow me to have a higher standard of living still?

In the end it doesn't matter. I'll continue to pursue FIRE because it's all unknowns.

tonysemail

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2016, 06:28:05 PM »
the only certainty is that most of the predictions will be wrong

Cyaphas

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2016, 06:42:11 PM »
If/when we fall heavily enough into the space faring stage, which I feel we are on the cusp of, I think that we're not going to have enough bodies to go around. We're essentially on a tiny little island with a few people standing around doing nothing. When we realize we can get to much larger islands or even build our own, I don't think there is going to be much standing around.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2016, 07:46:34 PM »
The world is certainly changing exponentially.

Think about it, 10 years ago we didn't have smart phones, today we live in an application economy where most businesses interact with their customers through an app on a mobile device.

In the next 5-10 years a big part of the developing world will suddenly have access to the internet and everything that goes along with it. There is still a ton of room for economic growth. Technology is certainly stealing the spotlight in business. I for one am glad to be working for a company that is part of the push, rather than a laggard.

Tyson

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2016, 08:37:32 PM »
Low income/skill jobs are going to continue to diminish.  The key is not to lament their loss.  The key is to train/educate the displaced workers so that they can participate in higher skilled jobs so they can continue to be relevant in the changing economy.  We should have been doing this already, but humans in society seem to be really terrible about planning for the future.

Not everyone is going to be educate able to do a higher skilled job and even if they could the influx of labour in to those fields would lower the value of them causing additional problems if new fields don't happen.

Uhm no. That's like saying in 1996 that it would be bad to educate people on software engineering because the influx of people into the tech world would lower the value of that education.  Really?  That's really your position? 

tonysemail

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2016, 09:48:37 PM »
Low income/skill jobs are going to continue to diminish.  The key is not to lament their loss.  The key is to train/educate the displaced workers so that they can participate in higher skilled jobs so they can continue to be relevant in the changing economy.  We should have been doing this already, but humans in society seem to be really terrible about planning for the future.

Not everyone is going to be educate able to do a higher skilled job and even if they could the influx of labour in to those fields would lower the value of them causing additional problems if new fields don't happen.

Uhm no. That's like saying in 1996 that it would be bad to educate people on software engineering because the influx of people into the tech world would lower the value of that education.  Really?  That's really your position? 



I pity the fool who tries to teach my mom software engineering.

Tyson

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2016, 10:08:34 PM »

I pity the fool who tries to teach my mom software engineering.

Haha, I literally LOL'd.  Nice :)

cacaoheart

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #27 on: June 07, 2016, 07:06:02 AM »
Or maybe it gets to the point where everyone is provided a basic living allowance, will my portfolio be worth anything? Will it allow me to have a higher standard of living still?

In the end it doesn't matter. I'll continue to pursue FIRE because it's all unknowns.

The idea of a basic universal income is getting more press:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11861018/switzerland-basic-income-vote-rejected

My current course of action is similar: keep saving/planning for FIRE as it will put in me in a better position for whatever does eventually happen.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #28 on: June 07, 2016, 07:25:57 AM »
Low income/skill jobs are going to continue to diminish.  The key is not to lament their loss.  The key is to train/educate the displaced workers so that they can participate in higher skilled jobs so they can continue to be relevant in the changing economy.  We should have been doing this already, but humans in society seem to be really terrible about planning for the future.

Not everyone is going to be educate able to do a higher skilled job and even if they could the influx of labour in to those fields would lower the value of them causing additional problems if new fields don't happen.

Uhm no. That's like saying in 1996 that it would be bad to educate people on software engineering because the influx of people into the tech world would lower the value of that education.  Really?  That's really your position?

Though still high the value of someone doing software engineering some jobs have decreased in value over the past 30 years. However not as much because of the former part most people either are unable to keep up the education or have no interest in it. Most people I know have little to no want and/or affinity to go in to software engineering or similar fields. Also had the caveat of new fields opening to fill the void. However yes if all those people were capable and move in to a non growing amount of fields or growing at a rate lower than the influx of people this is going to force wages down which doesn't solve the problem of keeping more people in the middle class or higher.

Your logic only works if the growth of new fields keeps up with the shrinking of fields taken away by automation. After robotics though software automation such a generalized AI has the capability of taking away a lot of fields many currently believe can't be automated, if they figure it out, and this is one of the less doomsday like predictions for what would happen if generalized AI were to be invented. What if a computer could write any code a human could but faster, cheaper and better? What about a software based CFO that has access and the capability to truly understand all the financial data involved with the company at any time? Wall street is a good example. Much of wall street has been automated leading to fewer people making more money.

I'm not saying any of this is guaranteed to happen, but it is stuff that needs to be kept in mind or else we might be caught unaware.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #29 on: June 07, 2016, 07:41:08 AM »
there is a ton of skilled trade labor need in this country we are a long long long ways from robots that can build large industrial plants etc.  and these jobs pay similar to your white collar jobs when you consider everything and how early you start earning.  assuming you start the job with an MMM mindset.

Yankuba

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2016, 02:16:28 PM »
Low income/skill jobs are going to continue to diminish.  The key is not to lament their loss.  The key is to train/educate the displaced workers so that they can participate in higher skilled jobs so they can continue to be relevant in the changing economy.  We should have been doing this already, but humans in society seem to be really terrible about planning for the future.

I think low income jobs will thrive. When you look at the monthly job numbers and study the jobs that the economy is creating you see that most of the job gains are in low skill employment - home health care, leisure and hospitality (waiter/bartender), etc. I think technology's most powerful effect will be in deskilling jobs and driving wages down.

For example, the driverless cars and trucks are already here. They use truck convoys in Europe where the lead truck has a human driver but the trucks that follow are synched to the lead truck and mimic the human driver. When the trucks can fully drive themselves we will still probably have "truckers" to take over when weather gets bad or when the truck needs to load/unload. But 95% of the time the human will be doing nothing. You're not going to pay these truckers $40k because the skills required to be one of these new truckers are limited. I think we will see this across all professions - the software/hardware will do most of the job and the humans will do the remaining 10% but they won't be paid well.

The hardest jobs to automate are the ones that don't have a lot of repetition.

I worry about my kids. Worst case scenario they live with me forever and we all live off of my pension and retirement assets. I think we will see some kind of national basic income, negative income tax or government make work program over the next two decades.

Tyson

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2016, 03:44:01 PM »
If people aren't paid, who is gonna buy all the stuff?

robartsd

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #32 on: June 07, 2016, 04:05:49 PM »
When the trucks can fully drive themselves we will still probably have "truckers" to take over when weather gets bad or when the truck needs to load/unload. But 95% of the time the human will be doing nothing. You're not going to pay these truckers $40k because the skills required to be one of these new truckers are limited. I think we will see this across all professions - the software/hardware will do most of the job and the humans will do the remaining 10% but they won't be paid well.
It takes no less skill to drive the hardest 5% of the time than it does to drive 100% of the time. It probably would require more training to get started. It is no less hardship on your relationships to be on the road not driving than it is to be on the road driving. The driver should still get paid the same salary. Perhaps automation will allow the driver to be responsible for a larger load and most of the time the truck still rolls as the driver sleeps (good conditions), so one driver is able to do the job that several drivers used to do.

bobechs

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2016, 08:38:01 PM »
If people aren't paid, who is gonna buy all the stuff?

Robots.  And their robot children.

maizeman

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #34 on: June 07, 2016, 08:46:16 PM »
It takes no less skill to drive the hardest 5% of the time than it does to drive 100% of the time. It probably would require more training to get started. It is no less hardship on your relationships to be on the road not driving than it is to be on the road driving. The driver should still get paid the same salary. Perhaps automation will allow the driver to be responsible for a larger load and most of the time the truck still rolls as the driver sleeps (good conditions), so one driver is able to do the job that several drivers used to do.

But the hardest 5% occurs at different times for different trucks. So you can develop mostly autonomous systems combined with the same remote piloting techniques we already use for drones.  Then 5% of drivers who are the best in a pinch (or the 5% willing to work for the lowest pay) can sit in the office (or even in their own spare bedrooms), jumping from one truck in a complex situation to the next and the other 95% of truck drivers still end up unemployed.

I read a fascinating post on the long term implications of this sort of "mostly autonomous" system recently:

https://blog.foretellix.com/2016/04/23/the-rise-of-mostly-autonomous-systems/

dragoncar

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #35 on: June 07, 2016, 08:53:21 PM »
I believe more and more governments and everyday people are waking up to just how big of paradigm shift this is likely to be.

I'm sure the US government has binders full of contingency plans for this scenario.  Extreme social  inequality is a huge threat to national security, after all!

BigBangWeary

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #36 on: June 08, 2016, 02:23:16 AM »
Maizeman – Exactly. Can you say Pepper? I believe Pizza Hut just started to use this particular robot. I agree with thinking more in terms of legacy planning. This is, after all, what the 1% tend to spend a lot of their time on. I have watched in awe just how far ahead some of my peers were when they had schooling paid for, or were given large down payments to help get a foot-hold on the property latter. In many cases, this propelled them way beyond the rest of us. I think holding land and building entrepreneurial skills within my children is key.

Boarder42 – Sorry, I may not have been very clear with that one. My point wasn’t about me or Mustachians (self-selection bias), but that, on average, my Millennial peer group HAS to have both spouses working, and has to obtain a higher level of education today to achieve what their parents were able to achieve (on average) in the 70s/80s/90s in terms of lifestyle and retirement savings (ignoring the old iPhone/travel argument).  I argue this has a lot to do with globalization and the equalizing of wealth around the world (China, Africa India higher, Canada, Europe and US lower) and free trade, but also automation. I am arguing that this kind of change will happen again, but on a greater scale due to AI and robotic innovation.

Prognastat - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA6olIl_LXI

Acroy – I like your perspective, thanks for sharing.
 
Mozar – Good point. I actually think working for the government is probably one of the safest ways to keep an income source secure going forward. I wonder though, as more companies become truly international and take advantage more and more of a global workforce, whether such mechanisms will keep the private sector safe. I agree that teaching kids to be problem solvers is key here.

Trashmanz – Sorry, I am Canadian, and perhaps that is the difference. I was also talking in general terms, not personal ones. When I grew up in rural Ontario, it was common for most of the fathers to work, and for the mothers to stay home. We had a very large, three bedrooms, three bathroom home with acreage. My parents paid it off quickly on one income, and we had two cars and travelled growing up. He worked at a factory. They weren’t crazy with their money, nor were they super frugal. My point was just that, in my context, most of the Millennials I know in my area have to be better educated, and mostly dual income to replicate this with any chance of also having the retirement my parents have. Perhaps I am an outlier in terms of experiences.

Maizeman – As an educator and father of 3, this is definitely an interest of mine.

PensacolaStache – Thank you, I will put it on my reading list. I work in a university environment and get to be exposed to a lot of Engineering professors and IT gurus who have me tuning in more and more to this issue, something that is quickly becoming a real conundrum in the world of higher education. We are starting to realize humans may not be needed in nearly the same way we have been in the past when it comes to ‘work’ or ‘jobs’.

I may be mistaken, but what concerns me the most is that the basic argument, ‘oh we have always had automation and new jobs have sprung up’ seems to be a moot point with the current revolution as those ‘new jobs’ will come indeed, but the self-learning, cheaper, and vastly more adaptable ai/robotics technology will be capable of doing those jobs too. Plus, they don’t need pensions or rights.

Tyort1 – We are seeing rapid replacement of white-collar jobs as well. There was once a time when lawyers, accountants, teachers, financial planner and analysts, and even judges were safe from this. If you look into what is happening these jobs are definitely not irreplaceable. Yes, there will always been a need for some kind of human body, but not in the same numbers we once needed.

Toneysemail – True, although we are really talking here in terms of trends, and the slow (ish) process of many of these developments getting into the consciousness of the masses. A lot of what people are saying could never happen on this thread, IS happening and is causing some of the most intelligent and powerful people in the world to pause, and ask questions.

2Birds1Stone – That is a good attitude. I just wonder how (15+ years out) I can predict which company/industry/career to direct my children towards so that they can be part of said push. Oh well, at least Moore’s Law is slowing down.

Yankuba – Low income skilled jobs like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quWFjS3Ci7A
And this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsF_zs3G61M

I do think a national basic income will eventually happen. It will be forced to happen. The choice will simply be precarious low-paid work for the vast majority of humans, or a basic universal income.


Great conversation everyone. I would love to hear more.

This sums things up better than I could: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/538401/who-will-own-the-robots/
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 06:02:15 AM by BigBangWeary »

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #37 on: June 08, 2016, 06:06:54 AM »

Boarder42 – Sorry, I may not have been very clear with that one. My point wasn’t about me or Mustachians (self-selection bias), but that, on average, my Millennial peer group HAS to have both spouses working, and has to obtain a higher level of education today to achieve what their parents were able to achieve (on average) in the 70s/80s/90s in terms of lifestyle and retirement savings (ignoring the old iPhone/travel argument).  I argue this has a lot to do with globalization and the equalizing of wealth around the world (China, Africa India higher, Canada, Europe and US lower) and free trade, but also automation. I am arguing that this kind of change will happen again, but on a greater scale due to AI and robotic innovation.


i still completely disagree with your point i'm a millenial you dont have to have both spouses working with higher degrees to obtain that.  i know plenty of people who do skill trades on single income and live just fine. i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.  food is being GMO'd, the internet exists to learn how to shop even cheaper, cell phone plans are cheaper than the lan Lines etc. what exactly costs more compared to wages in order to live now - sure they may not be able to FIRE as fast but this wasnt even a real concept 30 years ago when our parents were growing up ... i hate the "its harder now" arguement of my generation... its not its 10x easier.  the information is out there you just have to be willing to research and find it like this site.  i would say less of our generation is going into skilled trade or factory labor b/c its "beneath" them and the push for a college education is over rated ... and the market is flooded with millenials who went to college and got degrees there is no demand for.  but beyond that i dont see your point and would like to see some data from somewhere to back the statement that is bolded above b/c there is nothing to support this IMO.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #38 on: June 08, 2016, 06:11:55 AM »
but to the real point of the OP this arguement comes up when everyone used to work the farm and they automated that we now have self driving vehicles on farms.  (newflash - for those who dont know - the autonomous vehicle revolution has been here for 10+ years with tractors and combines on farms that use GPS and can do everything themselves - driver just for malfunction) as society evolves the human brain and intelligence has to evolve to keep up with it.   when the wheel was invented it replaced what a few guys did and allowed for expansion of knowledge and for other to focus on other things.. we will continue to evolve and use our brains/bodies for different things to make a living in life.  a national base income wont happen there are always things to do. 

Yankuba

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #39 on: June 08, 2016, 08:34:01 AM »

Boarder42 – Sorry, I may not have been very clear with that one. My point wasn’t about me or Mustachians (self-selection bias), but that, on average, my Millennial peer group HAS to have both spouses working, and has to obtain a higher level of education today to achieve what their parents were able to achieve (on average) in the 70s/80s/90s in terms of lifestyle and retirement savings (ignoring the old iPhone/travel argument).  I argue this has a lot to do with globalization and the equalizing of wealth around the world (China, Africa India higher, Canada, Europe and US lower) and free trade, but also automation. I am arguing that this kind of change will happen again, but on a greater scale due to AI and robotic innovation.


i still completely disagree with your point i'm a millenial you dont have to have both spouses working with higher degrees to obtain that.  i know plenty of people who do skill trades on single income and live just fine. i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.  food is being GMO'd, the internet exists to learn how to shop even cheaper, cell phone plans are cheaper than the lan Lines etc. what exactly costs more compared to wages in order to live now - sure they may not be able to FIRE as fast but this wasnt even a real concept 30 years ago when our parents were growing up ... i hate the "its harder now" arguement of my generation... its not its 10x easier.  the information is out there you just have to be willing to research and find it like this site.  i would say less of our generation is going into skilled trade or factory labor b/c its "beneath" them and the push for a college education is over rated ... and the market is flooded with millenials who went to college and got degrees there is no demand for.  but beyond that i dont see your point and would like to see some data from somewhere to back the statement that is bolded above b/c there is nothing to support this IMO.

Healthcare, housing and education are all significantly more expensive today - they all outpaced inflation and wage growth in NYC. My parents' small house in a suburb of NYC has appreciated 8% year over year over the past four decades - far higher than inflation and wage growth. Most of my parents' friends were city teachers and they all have $600k houses, boats, vacation homes, etc. but the current generation of teachers isn't going to accumulate the same wealth.

People used to pay for college with summer jobs. That doesn't happen anymore unless you go to community college or a public commuter school.

One income may work in a LCOL area but it's hard in a HCOL area.

robartsd

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #40 on: June 08, 2016, 09:09:03 AM »
but the self-learning, cheaper, and vastly more adaptable ai/robotics technology will be capable of doing those jobs too.
I think you may be overestimating the adaptablility of AI/robotics.

If robots do indeed take over nearly all the jobs, we may just have to add a "robot tax" to pay for basic universal income.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #41 on: June 08, 2016, 09:10:07 AM »

Boarder42 – Sorry, I may not have been very clear with that one. My point wasn’t about me or Mustachians (self-selection bias), but that, on average, my Millennial peer group HAS to have both spouses working, and has to obtain a higher level of education today to achieve what their parents were able to achieve (on average) in the 70s/80s/90s in terms of lifestyle and retirement savings (ignoring the old iPhone/travel argument).  I argue this has a lot to do with globalization and the equalizing of wealth around the world (China, Africa India higher, Canada, Europe and US lower) and free trade, but also automation. I am arguing that this kind of change will happen again, but on a greater scale due to AI and robotic innovation.


i still completely disagree with your point i'm a millenial you dont have to have both spouses working with higher degrees to obtain that.  i know plenty of people who do skill trades on single income and live just fine. i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.  food is being GMO'd, the internet exists to learn how to shop even cheaper, cell phone plans are cheaper than the lan Lines etc. what exactly costs more compared to wages in order to live now - sure they may not be able to FIRE as fast but this wasnt even a real concept 30 years ago when our parents were growing up ... i hate the "its harder now" arguement of my generation... its not its 10x easier.  the information is out there you just have to be willing to research and find it like this site.  i would say less of our generation is going into skilled trade or factory labor b/c its "beneath" them and the push for a college education is over rated ... and the market is flooded with millenials who went to college and got degrees there is no demand for.  but beyond that i dont see your point and would like to see some data from somewhere to back the statement that is bolded above b/c there is nothing to support this IMO.

Healthcare, housing and education are all significantly more expensive today - they all outpaced inflation and wage growth in NYC. My parents' small house in a suburb of NYC has appreciated 8% year over year over the past four decades - far higher than inflation and wage growth. Most of my parents' friends were city teachers and they all have $600k houses, boats, vacation homes, etc. but the current generation of teachers isn't going to accumulate the same wealth.

People used to pay for college with summer jobs. That doesn't happen anymore unless you go to community college or a public commuter school.

One income may work in a LCOL area but it's hard in a HCOL area.

simple solution to that problem ... move out of the HCOL if you plan to work in a field where COL isnt reflected in your fields salary.  and to quote prices in a booming market of one US town isnt really a good sample.  why dont we look at housing prices in detroit or las vegas ... its all relative but if you want to build a little box around a HCOL and say it cant be done in NYC or San Fran who cares move or get skills that are paid enough to cover COL there.  teachers here in MO retire with 90% of there salary at age 50 give or take. 

all i'm saying is making that statement is about as complainy pants as it can get.  we all have choices we can make in life and a single income family in the midwest can survive and have all those luxuries they will just need to work as long as their parents did. 

i just hate the "life is more expensive now" arguement it annoys me to no end and life is only as expensive as you CHOOSE to make it.  and thats what this site is about right?  CHOOSing to make your life less expensive and therefore happier.

davisgang90

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #42 on: June 08, 2016, 09:26:26 AM »
I recommend Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford.  The video in the first post does a good job of laying out the potential job disruption the world is likely facing.  If you haven't watched the video before commenting, you should.

I lead an industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems at a senior war college in Washington D.C.  We deep dive into these issues as they relate to national security. (http://es.ndu.edu/Portals/75/Documents/industry-study/reports/2015/es-is-report-robotics-autonomous-systems-2015.pdf)

Bottom line: If you think these advancements in technology are only going to affect low skilled labor, you are wrong.  Unless you lump doctors, lawyers and engineers in with low skilled.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #43 on: June 08, 2016, 09:30:58 AM »
I recommend Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford.  The video in the first post does a good job of laying out the potential job disruption the world is likely facing.  If you haven't watched the video before commenting, you should.

I lead an industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems at a senior war college in Washington D.C.  We deep dive into these issues as they relate to national security. (http://es.ndu.edu/Portals/75/Documents/industry-study/reports/2015/es-is-report-robotics-autonomous-systems-2015.pdf)

Bottom line: If you think these advancements in technology are only going to affect low skilled labor, you are wrong.  Unless you lump doctors, lawyers and engineers in with low skilled.

the day engineers are 100% replaced by AI is the day you will have to have a completely socialistic society.  engineers make all the technology and once they can create technology that can dream up and create technology and solve world problems faster than a human can there will be no point to humans working anymore.  as long as a human is still doing a job an engineer will be working to replace that job with AI.

davisgang90

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #44 on: June 08, 2016, 09:33:58 AM »
I recommend Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford.  The video in the first post does a good job of laying out the potential job disruption the world is likely facing.  If you haven't watched the video before commenting, you should.

I lead an industry study on Robotics and Autonomous Systems at a senior war college in Washington D.C.  We deep dive into these issues as they relate to national security. (http://es.ndu.edu/Portals/75/Documents/industry-study/reports/2015/es-is-report-robotics-autonomous-systems-2015.pdf)

Bottom line: If you think these advancements in technology are only going to affect low skilled labor, you are wrong.  Unless you lump doctors, lawyers and engineers in with low skilled.

the day engineers are 100% replaced by AI is the day you will have to have a completely socialistic society.  engineers make all the technology and once they can create technology that can dream up and create technology and solve world problems faster than a human can there will be no point to humans working anymore.  as long as a human is still doing a job an engineer will be working to replace that job with AI.
Yep.

Now I recommend this piece on AI.  http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

AlanStache

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #45 on: June 08, 2016, 11:40:31 AM »
If you have not seen it already there is a good thread going along similar lines here
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/robots-and-their-impact-on-the-future/

maizeman

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #46 on: June 08, 2016, 11:51:12 AM »
Simple forms of AI are already significantly slowing demand growth for lawyers by automating things like going through giant piles of documents turned over during discovery proceedings. In 2015, only 40% of law school graduates from 2010 were working at law firms. In 2005, 60% of law school graduates from 2000 were working at law firms. At the same time the number of law school graduates per year is shrinking.

AI has also recently hit a level where it's demonstrated enough ability to start reducing demand for teaching assistants (jobs currently filled by people working on their PhDs). Google "Jill Watson" for an example of the latter.

In short, I agree with davisgang90 that it is definitely not only "low skill" jobs that are going to shrink going forward.

prognastat

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #47 on: June 08, 2016, 12:17:47 PM »
Prognastat - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA6olIl_LXI

Given that it is just the video with no explanation I am going to make some assumptions about what you are trying to respond as so I may be off. I probably should have been clearer in my response though. First off I though I believe robots can do art and would likely take over the low end art market such as mass produced art where you have the average person buying something inexpensive for in their house or office. However I don't believe computers/AI will take over the high end art market. Not because I believe they are incapable of creating impressive art, but instead because most people in the higher end art market are looking for a human story to go along with the art. The other part is that I wasn't just talking about art only as visual or audiovisual experience but the general idea of creativity. The main reason I brought it up is because it is one field often offered as there are lots of opportunities there if there we no manual or even intellectual labour. However most creative markets can't sustain the majority of artists in them as is. A few hit it big, but a large portion of artists are doing it either as a side job or are ok making much less in return for doing what is their passion.

So in short I believe robotics and AI will encroach some on the lower end creative market, but the high end will likely remain a mostly human field. However it is not currently and I doubt will be in the future a market with potential for large growth.

boarder42

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #48 on: June 08, 2016, 02:38:23 PM »

Boarder42 – Sorry, I may not have been very clear with that one. My point wasn’t about me or Mustachians (self-selection bias), but that, on average, my Millennial peer group HAS to have both spouses working, and has to obtain a higher level of education today to achieve what their parents were able to achieve (on average) in the 70s/80s/90s in terms of lifestyle and retirement savings (ignoring the old iPhone/travel argument).  I argue this has a lot to do with globalization and the equalizing of wealth around the world (China, Africa India higher, Canada, Europe and US lower) and free trade, but also automation. I am arguing that this kind of change will happen again, but on a greater scale due to AI and robotic innovation.


i still completely disagree with your point i'm a millenial you dont have to have both spouses working with higher degrees to obtain that.  i know plenty of people who do skill trades on single income and live just fine. i think its just a complainy pants statement without much if any backing at all. i think your claims are simply unfounded IMO ... show data that backs the fact that it costs more to live now than 30 years ago.  food is being GMO'd, the internet exists to learn how to shop even cheaper, cell phone plans are cheaper than the lan Lines etc. what exactly costs more compared to wages in order to live now - sure they may not be able to FIRE as fast but this wasnt even a real concept 30 years ago when our parents were growing up ... i hate the "its harder now" arguement of my generation... its not its 10x easier.  the information is out there you just have to be willing to research and find it like this site.  i would say less of our generation is going into skilled trade or factory labor b/c its "beneath" them and the push for a college education is over rated ... and the market is flooded with millenials who went to college and got degrees there is no demand for.  but beyond that i dont see your point and would like to see some data from somewhere to back the statement that is bolded above b/c there is nothing to support this IMO.

Look up a standard distribution model on Google. 

Our argument is that people in +/- 1 standard deviation cannot afford much of what you say they can in a one-person breadwinner household. 

You're probably above that.  Count your blessings, but remember that the bulk of people don't have your luck. 


"The proper amount of wealth is that which neither descends to poverty nor is far distant from it." - Seneca

It appears that you're probably not a Stoic.

i mean what are you saying exactly ... this site is based almost completely on the principal of living on LESS than that amount of money with a family.  may as well quit trying to FIRE right now if you dont believe someone making 36k a year with a SAHP can have a 3 bed 2 bath house and take 1 vacation a year.  its entirely possible people choose to not do it ... yeah i make piles more moeny. but i also dont spend more than the median household income that just allows me to retire.  retirement isnt a right its a priveledge you ahve to set yourself up for.

raygor

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Re: Wealth and Success during the AI and Robotics Revolution
« Reply #49 on: June 08, 2016, 03:29:40 PM »
New to the forum.

This has been on my mind a lot lately. I have had a dream for years to move from my expensive (SF east bay) area to something more reasonable, even just a slight step down, but with acreage. I feel like some of this automation and technology can also be used to setup a high tech homestead. It certainly would still require a lot of elbow grease, but if ultimately you end up spending a few hours a day on it, and you cut your food, utilities, and transportation (by working remotely) drastically, you could get by with a much lower salary, and/or savings. The lowering cost, and improving quality of 3d printers, has a potential to revolutionize things for the individual in ways we don't understand yet.