To sell or keep 2002 Honda Odyssey?

[onemorebike]

We are a one car family, that bikes, walks, transits a lot of places but use the family van for camping, longer trips, and my wife uses it for limited in town miles to and fro from work. The van has been great for throwing in random construction materials, hauling bikes to a trail head, picking up or giving rides home to random friends of our kids and long road trips with lots of gear. But man does the mpg suck.

As our kids are getting older (5 and 8), I'm starting to wonder about something smaller, more efficient - like a Prius. The van has 178,000 miles on it but that is toddler stage for these Hondas, there are many years left in it. I did a back of the envelope calculation on our ~10,000 annual miles travelled and realized that by switching to a used Prius (thinking a 2009 @~$6,000 for 130,000 mile vehicle) we could be saving as much as a thousand dollars a year on gasoline.

I've been debating with my self, and occasionally my wife, the utility of selling the van (pain in the ass) versus driving it into the ground. For background we are not FIRE, or even close, but both have a steady middle class income, with no debt and a decent amount of $$ in investments and savings.

The question? Do you have any input on making a decision like this? Are my numbers flawed? What would you do?

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[RWD]

$1,000/year in fuel savings is a pretty compelling. Checking your numbers fueleconomy.gov says it should be a $750-800/year in savings to switch to a 2009 Prius. Though if you have higher than average fuel costs in your area and/or do more than 55% of your driving in the city then $1,000/year is not an unreasonable estimate.

With that amount of driving I would definitely consider switching to a more fuel efficient vehicle. You should also check the difference in insurance and registration cost differences (if any) on your desired replacement vehicle before pulling the trigger.

[onemorebike]

$1,000/year in fuel savings is a pretty compelling. Checking your numbers fueleconomy.gov says it should be a $750-800/year in savings to switch to a 2009 Prius. Though if you have higher than average fuel costs in your area and/or do more than 55% of your driving in the city then $1,000/year is not an unreasonable estimate.

With that amount of driving I would definitely consider switching to a more fuel efficient vehicle. You should also check the difference in insurance and registration cost differences (if any) on your desired replacement vehicle before pulling the trigger.

True, the fuel difference is considerable, perhaps what has me hesitating is the pic of the  sale (and preparing for sale) and that a 2009 Prius would cost about 4-5 grand more than what we could get for the Odyssey

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[RWD]

I'm seeing the average price of 2002 Odysseys on Autotrader at $3.7k. Lowest price is $1.3k. The average price with over 200k miles is $2.9k. Note these are asking prices, not necessarily selling prices.

So let's say you get $2k for your Odyssey and buy a $6k Prius. Immediate capital expenditure of $4k. Assuming your $1k/year fuel savings is correct, 10% investment returns, and 15% annual vehicle depreciation... In five years you'll have saved $5k in fuel, lost out on $2.4k in investment gains, and the Prius will have depreciated to $2.7k compared to the Odyssey which would have been worth $900 ($2.2k loss). The result is a $400 gain after five years. Note that the investment return rate I used here is probably optimistic and favors the Odyssey yet switching to the Prius still came out ahead in the math. I'm also not sure if the 15% depreciation numbers are realistic for these vehicles. Keep the Prius longer than five years and the math gets increasingly better for it.

[firescape]

I prefer to consider how much each vehicle costs me per month to own, factoring in depreciation, maintenance and repair cost, and fuel costs. Often times people don't consider all the true cost associated with owning a vehicle, especially depreciation- that is usually more than you think. I usually omit insurance and registration because we're usually looking at upgrading the same vehicle, and those costs stay the same.
When I looked at how much it costs us to own a 10 year old Odyssey I was surprised to see it was within $75/month of leasing a new one.
The cost of repairs and depreciation were more than expected. Many newer vehicles require less oil changes per year.
Nice work on analyzing it, most don't know what it really costs to own a vehicle.

[onemorebike]

I prefer to consider how much each vehicle costs me per month to own, factoring in depreciation, maintenance and repair cost, and fuel costs. Often times people don't consider all the true cost associated with owning a vehicle, especially depreciation- that is usually more than you think. I usually omit insurance and registration because we're usually looking at upgrading the same vehicle, and those costs stay the same.
When I looked at how much it costs us to own a 10 year old Odyssey I was surprised to see it was within $75/month of leasing a new one.
The cost of repairs and depreciation were more than expected. Many newer vehicles require less oil changes per year.
Nice work on analyzing it, most don't know what it really costs to own a vehicle.

How much do you think depreciation factors into a vehicle you are planning to drive into the ground? Or in the case of a leased vehicle, how does depreciation affect something you return to the dealer?

 The lease versus own numbers you mentioned seem virtually impossible as I'd suspect the insurance costs on a new car versus 10 year old vehicle would surpass that $75 alone! We keep minimal insurance because we don't intend to fix any damage from a crash. Actually, would you be willing to share those numbers? I'd love to be wrong on this (would potentially open us up to driving something a tad less utilitarian) but suspect something isn't adding up.


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[WSUCoug1994]

$1000 a month is not insignificant but you are talking about a severe change in cargo capacity and room especially as your kids continue to grow.  The Prius is great for what it is but it isn't a minivan.

[firescape]

Depreciation on something you run into the ground can matter a lot. Figure whatever you paid for the car, minus what it's worth after being driven into the ground, divided by how long you've owned it. Our Odyssey dropped in value around $10k in 7 years,
 That cost alone is over $100/month.
I don't think you'd factor in depreciation if you plan on turning in a lease vehicle. You would not experience any drop in value of the car, the dealer would.
When my wife looked into insurance costs, full coverage on both, the difference was not that much. I forget numbers (maybe $100/month for full coverage on current van or new one?), but I remember thinking the improved fuel efficiency of a new one might make up the difference.