Author Topic: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?  (Read 8469 times)

FirePaddle

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Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« on: October 30, 2013, 12:32:43 PM »
Hello Mustachians!  I'm a newbie Mustachian here.  I discovered this blog in late Sept, and have been obsessed ever since.  The biggest part of it all is that I had no idea my wife and I could retire before 60, or 50, or even 40!  I feel like we've lived a fairly frugal lifestyle, but now I see the light and want to accelerate it.  Before finding this community, I was thinking we needed from $2-5 million from age 60 onward to survive!

We live in Alaska, which means a lot of things, including high wages and high cost of living.  But we might want to move to a new location once retired to allow our money to go further, and to be closer to family.

Going along with the obsessed theme, I created a google spreadsheet of our situation, over time.  It all looks too good to be true though, so I'm asking if there's anyone out there that can rip into it and tell me what I might be overlooking?  Feel free to punch me in the face.

We are 33/34 years old today, with $376k invested.  We make about [deleted] a year.

The spreadsheet basically takes our income, reduces it by projected expenses, automatic savings into our retirement accounts (can't access till 60), a health savings account, and then invests the remaining into a new account that we can access from age 40-60.  This new account will be funded starting next year.

Assumptions (which can be changed) include 2% raises, 3% inflation, retiring at 40, reduced expenses by 20% once retired, reduced cost of living to 70% if "Marquette" is choses as the location to live, health care costs from age 41-60 of $6000-$9000 annually, travel money of $3000 annually from age 41-100, and a few other one time expenses thrown in. All highlighted boxes have comments explaining significant calculation changes.  This also assumes that we roll over our Roth IRA contributions of ~$75k into a new after tax account that we can access from age 40-60.  This rollover will be the first deposit into the new account to fund us form age 40-60.  From age 40-60, we do spend more than the gains, but that is fine, as long as the money lasts until age 60.  Once 60 hits, the remaining $325k that we let ride from today to age 60 should be worth $2.4M.

The big unknowns in my mind include the investment returns, inflation, and if we can control the spending level.  I think we can as the changes we're implementing now are not that extreme.  I just ordered 4 tubes for my old (yet still new) bicycle.  I've also included a sheet showing most of our investments (excluding about $50k of account that won't link with mint).  I think we need to move a greater portion of our portfolio into index funds to maintain the expected 7% returns.  Comments welcome there as well!

The spreadsheet is shared here.  I've shared it as editable, as that is the only way to see the calculations, but there's a risk there that it will break.  If that is the case, and you are really able to help, then I can share a new copy with just you to investigate.  I would think it would be highly useful to others as well.

[link deleted]

MMM, if you find that this spreadsheet may be useful for others, let me know and I’ll give you a fresh copy to share.

Thanks,
Tom
« Last Edit: March 27, 2015, 02:39:01 PM by tkurkcanoe »

dadof4

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2013, 01:30:11 PM »
Hi Tom,

First, Welcome to the forums. No, you're not crazy. You're saving like crazy :)
Saving over 100k a year will get you to retirement very quickly!

It looks like you aren't accounting for taxes though (unless the 160k figure is post tax).

*Your comments on the spreadsheet include what appears to be your last name. I would be wary of including your real name and your net worth in the same place on the internets.


FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2013, 02:58:19 PM »
dadof4,

Thanks for the last name notice.  That concern did cross my mind, but I didn't think anything was showing!  I changed by G+ profile to not show my last name.

Ah, taxes, yes, I should include more on that.  I've changed the income to show a reducing of 15% for taxes, as that was our last tax bracket from 2012.  I've also included the annual charge for healthcare at my current job.  So now our post tax income is more like $132k, but it's still looking good.

One thing I'm not sure how to implement, let alone understand, is how to include taxes when we are withdrawing from our funds.  Since the 40-60 fund is post tax, I think I just need to include a capital gains tax on withdrawals.  The 60-100 funds are all retirement funds or a Roth IRA, and those will be above $2M at 60, so I'm not so worried there.

Random

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2013, 04:08:43 PM »
Great job, fellow Alaskan.  I wish I was your age when I found this site and embraced the way.  (well, I have always embraced many aspects, but without sufficient intention). As it is, I will be able to retire in 1-3 years which makes me 56-58. 

Siamond

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2013, 04:18:32 PM »
I've also included a sheet showing most of our investments (excluding about $50k of account that won't link with mint).  I think we need to move a greater portion of our portfolio into index funds to maintain the expected 7% returns.  Comments welcome there as well!

Very simple rule: the lower the expense ratio, the higher the returns. So yes, low cost index funds all the way... This combined with a decent level of diversification, and sticking to your investment plan on the long run... And you should be all set, given your great saving rate. Congratulations.

FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2013, 04:26:49 PM »
Thanks Siamond!  I would like to keep the expense ratios down too, but with our retirement plans being with set companies picked by our employers, there are limited choices for investment choices.  The ratios are still down in the .45 range, but that is nothing like Vanguards index funds in the .10 range.

This has reminded me to check if we're able to switch investment companies, especially if they have lower fees and better funds.  I believe our choices were:

Fidelity Investments
Lincoln National Life
TIAA-CREF (what I chose based upon father's recommendation back in 2009)
VALIC

I'll start a new thread if I want that one answered!

This is great, all these little comments by members are making me think about other ways to increase our wealth.

Tom

Siamond

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2013, 09:00:31 PM »
I know it's hard, notably with the returns of the past 10 years, but... I would strongly advise you forget Apple and Google, and shift such investment (20% of your total portfolio? really?) to much broader index funds... As great as those companies are, time will come for a big fall, it always does... Now the trouble is you need to find a way to minimize capital gain taxes while doing such change, which might not be trivial.

More generally, if you didn't do so yet, start by reading one of the books from William Bernstein (or some other good literature on passive investing). This will be your best investment EVER. Good luck!

FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2013, 10:43:38 PM »
Thanks Siamond,

Yes, thanks for punching, or at least slapping me in the face.  Rebalancing my portfolio into mostly passive investments is what I hope to do next.  I just need a concrete plan and picks.  A lot of those funds are in retirement accounts with limited choices, but they are at least mutual funds.  My last purchase was VFINX, but it needs more.

Re: dropping google and apple:

Yes, that has been my thought as well.  I was wondering if I should drop them or just ignore them and invest all future contributions into index funds, which drops them both to a lesser percentage over time.  Dropping is probably the best bet.  They've treated me well, time to move on.  They are both in Roth IRA's, so I think all gains are tax free if I don't touch them until 60.

I just started The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, but Bernstein is on the list.

RobertBirnie

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2013, 12:49:25 AM »
I don't know where you expect to see the spending level drop once retired. With the average joe, I think this drop is expected to be due to a lower tax bracket and having no debt. For a mustachian though, you might not loose much in tax bracket because so much income is tax deferred and you'll have limited debt to start with. Look at your budget now and try cutting 20% out and see if it'd be a good thing.

Where were investment choices at? 20% Apple and Google is a bit scary, Google especially. When a stock is riding high like Google, the PE multiple is super high compared to the industry. So if Google ever stumbles not only the stock drop because of lower expected future returns but also they might loose their golden multiple, a one two punch to your portfolio. Apple at least has a reasonably low multiple, so they shouldn't have as much risk of a catastrophic fall because revenue is just so high. They could easily have a slow persistent fall in value though if earnings stagnates or falls (which has been the trend the last year...).

As for which investments to look into. Check out WealthFront, they invest based on the "Random Walk Down Wall Street" book. You can go through their initial questionnaire and see what funds they recommend based on your risk preferences without giving them any of your contact info. That'd be a good baseline to mirror the holdings in your personal portfolio or a good place to start researching from. Most of the funds they recommend are Vanguard, so it'll be easy for you to find them in your Vanguard account. This is what I did with my wife's 401k Vanguard account. http://wlth.fr/17dVWNE (FYI, its my referral link as I have an account with them, you still don't need to give them any of your info though).

Finally, what an awesome Excel chart! Super job! I'm copying it and going to plug my numbers in there too.

FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2013, 01:03:18 PM »
Thanks RobertBirnie!

Regarding the 20% drop in spending once retired, well, I mostly got that from reading what usually happens to retirees, but I see your point related to those retiring from a Mustachian lifestyle, of which we're just starting to embrace.  I also figure that we'll just be spending more time chillin' and not even have as many opportunities to spend money compared to when we're working (not driving into town every day, spending more time on projects at the house, spending time in Nature, etc.)  Because this is an unknown though, that is why it's variable you can interactively change!

Tom


FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2013, 04:39:21 PM »
Update:

I just reduced my stake in AAPL from $46k to $5k and and GOOG from $20k to $5k.  They treated me well with over 100% returns, but I was lucky.  Time for more index funds!  Already less stress.  They are now only 2.6% of my portfolio, rather than 20%!

Tom

trammatic

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2013, 10:46:27 AM »
I think there is an error in your spreadsheet.  For 2020, you start off with a stash of 438,186 (L11), you spend more than your return (P11), yet you end the year ahead by 20k (Q11).  The problem is that you add the entire investment income (M11) but only remove your expenses in excess of that (P11).  You should actually remove all of your expenses to get: 438,186 - 41,439 + 30,673 => 427,420 or a net consumption of 10,766 of principle.

FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2013, 05:58:38 PM »
Thanks trammatic,

I corrected that oversight.  I've since moved on to improving/simplifying this spreadsheet to also include tax concerns.  I hope to post a new one soon.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2013, 06:41:46 PM »
I so want to go to Alaska for a year or two when we ER at age 45ish in 2015.

I think you were told bad advice to bail on Apple.  It is a PE 12 company in a world of PE 17 indexes...and if you back out the cash (even paying tax) it is more like a PE 9 company.

I bought 200 shares during the summer at $405 and just bought another 50 at $515.  Buffett can have his Exxon and IBM, save the apples for me!

FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2013, 06:56:54 PM »
I've held Apple since 2007 or so, and was thinking for a long time to sell some of it.  I still own $5000 of Apple and another $5000 of Google, but they are a much less percentage of my portfolio.  My plan is more certainty  in my financial planning, especially wanting to early retire in 6 years at 40, so now is a good time to sell those individual stocks and lock in a smoother (maybe?) stock/bond index ride.

I also wasted too much time reading stupid articles about those two companies, rather than doing productive and fun things in life.

Tom

FirePaddle

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2021, 12:47:23 PM »
Update, 8 years later...

I went part time for a year in 2019, and then retired in Oct 2020! I should never had sold Apple or Google, as they took off like rocket ships after I sold most of it in Nov 2013, but on the other hand, my plan still worked out given the high savings rate!

 

getmoneyeatpizza

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2021, 03:18:10 PM »
Congrats on retiring. I was reading from the top and started to think about these threads in retrospect when I saw the sell Apple post.

And then cringe when I saw you'd sold it in 2013. It was the right decision with all the details you had at the time. Oh well, you've retired!

What are you FIRE numbers? And is there still a link to this spreadsheet?

Loren Ver

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2021, 03:44:30 PM »
Hindsight can be rough, it could have gone either way if we had another tech bubble burst. 

But retirement is still retirement!  Congrats!!  Thanks for coming back to update!

ender

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Re: Am I crazy? Do my numbers really make sense?
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2021, 06:38:44 AM »
Update, 8 years later...

I went part time for a year in 2019, and then retired in Oct 2020! I should never had sold Apple or Google, as they took off like rocket ships after I sold most of it in Nov 2013, but on the other hand, my plan still worked out given the high savings rate!

One of the neater things about this forum is we can see 8 year updates :-)

Congrats!