upcoming market crash? any worries?

[fizzgig]

Has anyone read "The Crash of 2016." It's not some amateur conspiracy theorist ramblings. It's very convincing, well-cited, etc. Has anyone read this or similar projections? If so, are you worried about your investments?
http://www.amazon.com/Crash-2016-Plot-Destroy-America--/dp/0446584835/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401824814&sr=1-1&keywords=crash+of+2016

[matchewed]

No.

Crystal balls are bullshit.

[fizzgig]

Yes, I hear you, it's hard to predict the future, I agree with that. But this book points to the very near future and makes a pretty convincing case. Surely you would agree that there's a difference between predicting a lofty, alarmist future many years down the road and realizing that your boat with a hole in it is going to sink very soon? It's not just that book that has posited that idea, either.
Here' a similar article:
http://www.alternet.org/economy/about-burst-next-big-economic-bubble

[dragoncar]

I made a similar prediction.  Lets see if I'm right.

[warfreak2]

Alternet is pretty much written from an alternate reality, to put it mildly.

[matchewed]

Yes, I hear you, it's hard to predict the future, I agree with that. But this book points to the very near future and makes a pretty convincing case. Surely you would agree that there's a difference between predicting a lofty, alarmist future many years down the road and realizing that your boat with a hole in it is going to sink very soon? It's not just that book that has posited that idea, either.
Here' a similar article:
http://www.alternet.org/economy/about-burst-next-big-economic-bubble

So. If you see a boat with holes what holes are there? Because they must be obvious right? I mean if the analogy must stand then there must be some big holes that we can all agree on. And then yeah I can see it. Or... or it could just be a guy trying to sell a book.

Market predictions are a fools game. I can keep shouting a crash will be coming next year and you know what I'll be right sometime. So why the hell should I trust anybody screaming that it'll be happening in 20XX?

How about the crash of 2014?

2012?

2011?

Days?

Keep worrying over your sheep every time the kid cries wolf. Or alternatively you could just stop worrying and use good investment planning. Put together an asset allocation you're comfortable with. Understand that you'll go through several market drops and that you'll invest during and through all of them.

But hey, it's your life. Worry about shit that doesn't really affect you if you want to.

[Eric]

The summary of the book barely touches on a crash and more relates ideas that the current political system is broken.

Although we are in the midst of what could become the most catastrophic economic crash in American History, a way forward is emerging, just as it did in the previous great crashes of the 1760s, 1856, and 1929. The choices we make now will redefine American culture. Before us stands a genuine opportunity to embrace the moral motive over the profit motive-and to rebuild the American economic model that once yielded great success.

Thoroughly researched and passionately argued, THE CRASH OF 2016 is not just a roadmap to redemption in post-Crash America, but a critical wake-up call, challenging us to act. Only if the right reforms are enacted and the moral choices are made, can we avert disaster and make our nation whole again.

Having not read the book, it looks like your basic click bait headline found everywhere on the internet.  A RIDICULOUS title followed by a reasonable argument about something that lots of people agree with.

Also, the summary seems to imply that the crash has already happened, which would seem to make sense even though it doesn't sync with the title.

[Bookworm]

I think it's reasonable to expect a "crash" of some magnitude.  Am I worried about it?  Not really, as it's unproductive to worry about things I can't predict or change.  I've read a lot about complexity theory in the global financial system and I've come to believe it's impossible to foresee where cracks are going to appear and which systems are going to fail (or not).  I'm just trying to stay nimble so that I can react appropriately when something happens.  Nothing in life lasts forever, certainly not bull runs in the equity markets.

[MoneyCat]

The last time the market crashed, I was able to buy a house for really cheap in the aftermath.  If it happens again, maybe I'll buy a couple more as rental properties.

[surfhb]

It's certain that the market will take a drop in the future.    It's fairly certain the S&P will be much higher then it is now in 20-30 years.   Now whether the S&P goes to 900 to reach those new highs is no concern to me.   

These guys predicting market crashes crack me up......it's like no shit Sherlock! ;)

[Woodshark]

Remember back in 2012 when there were "those experts" predicting an "upcoming crash in 2013!!!  Go to cash NOW!!"  They were there; oh yes, they were there and shouted it out for all to hear. 

Well......if you did......your would have missed a 30% gain, the greatest up year since 1997.

Pick an asset allocation, invest in the market using index funds and ignore the noise.  Repeat as needed.

[puglogic]

I'd be surprised if we make it to 2016.  The entire system is gamed.  We shifted almost everything away from the stock market right before the crash in 2008, and never went back.  It's great to live a mustachian life.....my blood pressure thanks MMM daily.

[Mr Mark]

There will be corrections regularly,  and panic spikes occasionally.  This is why an asset allocation of 100% stock is too wild a ride for most.

so most blend some bonds,  some real estate, some overseas stuff. And dollar cost averaging - just plonking away money regularly, removes most of the drama. But don't expect your portfolio to give you 30% in 2013 and provide low volatility. 

It's only market timers who worry about this stuff. Personally,  I'd love a huge crash in 2016.

[rmendpara]

Has anyone read "The Crash of 2016." It's not some amateur conspiracy theorist ramblings. It's very convincing, well-cited, etc. Has anyone read this or similar projections? If so, are you worried about your investments?
http://www.amazon.com/Crash-2016-Plot-Destroy-America--/dp/0446584835/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401824814&sr=1-1&keywords=crash+of+2016

Haven't read it, but I'd welcome a drop of 20-30%. People will get all scared and start selling off assets. I'll be sad for a day or two after seeing my portfolio value drop like a rock in the ocean, but then I'll be happy when I start buying up everything that's been oversold.

My biggest regret today is not investing more in 2011-2012.

[Mr. Frugalwoods]

Here's a secret:

If a person was absolutely certain they had information regarding an upcoming market crash the LAST thing they would do is tell anyone about it!  There's money to be made in a crash, and they'd be tearing up the options market.

However.  If you want to make money by selling a book then by all means come up with a thesis that plays into people's natural fears.  Plug away!

Some day this person will be right by accident.  Maybe this is the year.  Maybe it will be 2016.  There's no way to know.  Invest in index funds on a regular basis and don't think about it.

Has this author spent every last penny on put options?  No?  I wonder why.

[wtjbatman]

This is why I withdrew my retirement savings and put all of my money into forestry futures. When the market crashes and burns, I'll be the one laughing all the way to the lumber mill.

[Dibbels81]

I prefer to use the term "fire sale" instead of the word "crash."  I'm crossing my fingers and hoping this guy is right.  He's probably not, though.

[keepitsimple]

You hear crash, I hear BIG SALE!  I will make sure to have my cash ready so I can snatch up all those cheap shares.

[nereo]

on average the market falls 10% from a recent high about once per year.  It falls 20% about once every 4.5 years.  Recessions occur about every 5-6 years.  Predicting a crash will come 2 years from now is pretty much even-money.  Typically, if the crash comes a year early or late the person making the predictions claims they were right but factors either accelerated it or delayed it somewhat. 

[hexdexorex]

Take a look at the decade of the 90s...actually take a look at the market over 30 years....there were small downs but overall huge gains. Sure we are breaching highs never seen before in the market...but its now 6 years after the crash...tons of companies have double the EPS they had during that peak. It is obvious that prices are no where near at the fire sale prices of a few years ago, and yes as a market they are nearing a lofty PE. But if you look at tons of bluechip stocks there are plenty selling for 10-12 PE that are great long term bets. VZ...IBM....both can just keep their current profits and yield 10% for years to come.

[sirdoug007]

Interesting. So the same people that have been wrong about imminent hyper-inflation are now saying the inflation is in the stock market?  So why should I believe they will be right now if they've been wrong for the last 5 years?

This is also not quite confidence inspiring:

About the Author
Thom Hartmann is an internationally syndicated talk show host heard by over 2.75 million listeners each week and simulcast on television in more than 40 million homes. He is also a New York Times bestselling author of 24 books, including The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight. And Talkers magazine named Thom Hartmann #9 on their "2013 Heavy Hundred" list.

[taekvideo]

Well since I just started my working period... I hope it crashes... badly.
Would be great to buy stock on a supersale when I'm just getting started ^^

[RapmasterD]

Has anyone read "The Crash of 2016." Has anyone read this or similar projections? If so, are you worried about your investments?
http://www.amazon.com/Crash-2016-Plot-Destroy-America--/dp/0446584835/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1401824814&sr=1-1&keywords=crash+of+2016

No and no.

[Bateaux]

Market crashes offer great opportunity.   I've been through several and every time my accounts grew larger afterwards.   Have cash and ride it out.

[warfreak2]

(Bateauxdriver, is there any particular reason that the text in your posts has to be bigger than everyone else's?)

[matchewed]

(Bateauxdriver, is there any particular reason that the text in your posts has to be bigger than everyone else's?)

The easier to scream into your eyes of course.

[soccerluvof4]

If people keep predicting a crash someday they probably will be right. Amazing how they spin it so many ways wanting to be that person that gets titled " they predicted the crash".

I know alot of people that have predicted there going to die. Eventually they do and become right, might be 50 years later and they missed enjoying life but damn it they were right!

[EricL]

There are tons of people that make big money scaremongering.  If the economy continues to improve they will shift gears and say the economy is perfectly healthy so they can make money off the next bubble. 

But here's the bottom line: The market always generally goes up even though it crashes from time to time.  The crash in 2008 crushed my investment savings.  I also lost a bundle only from the expected % I would have earned if the bubble hadn't burst.  But I followed conventional wisdom and left my money in my investments.  As of this date I've made all that money back plus interest and probably recouped the % loss by purchasing quality stocks at a discount.  At the time I was freaked out so I didn't take as much advantage of the discounts as I could have so I might have made more. 

Stay calm, ignore the hype, examine the facts, try to discover why the numbers and math say what they say rather than accepting them at face value, think, and make your own decisions.

[randymarsh]

Didn't we literally have this exact conversation ~10 days ago?

[GuitarStv]

I just killed and ate my children to save them the horrors of living in a post crash world, and because the freezer was empty and I wasn't sure that grocery stores would still be open post crash.  This wasn't an overreaction right?

[Dr. Doom]

Didn't we literally have this exact conversation ~10 days ago?

Yes.  In the alt. thread someone made a suggestion to get a sticky thread up on it.  Maybe we can bring back that discussion?

I like jlcollinsnh's view on this:  A crash is always coming.  It's the first post in the stock series.

[freedom14]

I'd be surprised if we make it to 2016.  The entire system is gamed.  We shifted almost everything away from the stock market right before the crash in 2008, and never went back.  It's great to live a mustachian life.....my blood pressure thanks MMM daily.

Really?  What have you investing in over the past 6 years or is you money in a cash account?