Author Topic: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions  (Read 3276 times)

whodidntante

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Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« on: July 06, 2016, 09:59:51 PM »
How will today's 2,100 S&P 500 end the year? 

Is the market doomed so you're 100% short, waiting for us idiot longs to lose our shirts?  Do you have an "FDIC or bust" bumper sticker?

Or are you 7x leveraged waiting for all this bond money to walk back into equities? 

I'm asking in July.  You only have to predict a few months into the future.  So it should be easy. 

humbleMouse

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2016, 10:50:37 PM »
Play the volatility.  Wait for panic, short volatility, profit.  However, I would stop this strategy in august and buy out of money puts on volatility.  Maybe like a year out.  Wait out next big panic that will inevitably come via the election or some other crazy thing happening.  Then profit big time!

dragoncar

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2016, 10:55:05 PM »
is this price is right rules?

GrumpyPenguin

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2016, 05:33:45 AM »
2205

marty998

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2016, 06:31:28 AM »
Put me down as saying it will end bang on whatever it is today (2100?).

slugline

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2016, 09:10:02 AM »
I pay close attention to what the talking heads are predicting, then assume the opposite will happen. ;) Based on what I was seeing and hearing when 2016 opened, I'll say it closes moderately up at 2150.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2016, 11:00:27 AM »
~1750

dougules

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2016, 11:12:59 AM »
Barring an event that sends everybody into panic mode it depends on what the fed does which depends on what the economy does.   If interest rates stay the same, my SWAG is that the market will stay right where it is now plus or minus the short-term noise. 
If interest rates go up I think the market will go down from people taking advantage of higher returns on safer investments. 

PharmaStache

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2016, 11:37:05 AM »
The same, but I will be specific and guess 2105

pdxvandal

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2016, 12:42:55 PM »
There will be a presidential election bump in November, so I'll say 2200.

dougules

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2016, 03:31:45 PM »
The same, but I will be specific and guess 2105

I guess I have to give a specific number... I'll go with 2080.

mtn

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2016, 03:56:47 PM »
I'm selling out right now (taxable accounts) to fund a housing purchase, so I predict it will go up to 2300 because I left.

daverobev

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2016, 07:21:27 PM »
Barring an event that sends everybody into panic mode it depends on what the fed does which depends on what the economy does.   If interest rates stay the same, my SWAG is that the market will stay right where it is now plus or minus the short-term noise. 
If interest rates go up I think the market will go down from people taking advantage of higher returns on safer investments.

Um, that was Brexit. Everyone walking on eggshells. Lots of elections coming, so lots of fear, I think.

If the US economy does well, the USD will go up, which will cycle everything down. If the US does badly, $ will fall, so things will pick up.

I love the analogy of the man walking his dog - the dog runs back and forth, but the man keeps walking.

The counter is that, perhaps, Brexit is the beginning of a reversal of global integration. Who knows.

As to predictions, I have no clue. My NW in GBP is up massively since last month. Shame I live in Canada :P

Cyaphas

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2016, 07:28:28 PM »
S&P 1300

Negative interest rates in the US.

Trump wins the election.

At least 2 more countries will have left the EU.

Brazil post olympics is going to be madness.

Argentina will still not have recovered from current turmoil.

UK stock market will be doing very well after the pound took the hit devaluing their currency and bringing back some actual manufacturing.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2016, 05:52:01 AM »
The same or up very little to matter

marty998

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2016, 05:56:46 AM »
S&P 1300

Negative interest rates in the US.

Trump wins the election.

At least 2 more countries will have left the EU.

Brazil post olympics is going to be madness.

Argentina will still not have recovered from current turmoil.

UK stock market will be doing very well after the pound took the hit devaluing their currency and bringing back some actual manufacturing.

The only way people will know enough about these things in order to panic sell the S&P down to 1300 will be to Google the articles on their Apple phones which have been delivered to them by Amazon.

Your stockmarket will do just fine as a result.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Sound off! End of Year Market Predictions
« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2016, 06:38:24 AM »
S&P 1300

Negative interest rates in the US.

Trump wins the election.

At least 2 more countries will have left the EU.

Brazil post olympics is going to be madness.

Argentina will still not have recovered from current turmoil.

UK stock market will be doing very well after the pound took the hit devaluing their currency and bringing back some actual manufacturing.

You forgot race riots and tremendous racial and social tension.