Solar Panel/Heat Pump Quandary

[Photograph 51]

With the new discounts for energy efficient home improvements, it seems that this coming year will be an opportune time to get the solar panels and heat pump that I have been wanting for years.  I have been calling around to solar companies to check prices.  They are all telling me that I don't spend enough on electricity for them to be able to make it worth my while to put up a solar system.  They are saying that a household needs to spend at least $50-$70 per month on electricity (the exact number depends on which company I talk to.)  I spend about $30 per month on electricity, and this will likely be decreasing due to my offspring being away for the next several months.  The solar companies aren't willing to put up a system for a house that uses this level of electricity.  I am thinking through my options and this is what I have come up with:

1. Just continue on as I am currently.  I signed up with one of those all-solar/wind electrical providers already.  The problem with this is that I have really wanted solar panels for a long time and it would be gratifying to produce electricity at my own home without having to go through an electric company.
2. Go out of my way to waste as much electricity as possible so I will be able to qualify for the minimum.  No way am I doing this, as I can't bear to be wasteful.
3. Contact local Amish people who only have a couple of panels on their homes or businesses and ask them who put up their panels.  I am concerned, though, that if the person isn't licensed then I won't be able to tie my system in with my current electric company for backup as needed.   
4. Try to put up my own system.  This sounds daunting, but I guess it is possible.  Again, I am concerned about code issues.

What do you all think about these options?  Can you think of any other options I should consider?

The next issue is with the heat pump.  I am currently using an 18 year old oil furnace (because that's what was there when I bought the house.)  A few years ago I was is an intense graduate program, so I had only minimal time for earning money.  During that time, my income was low enough to qualify for energy assistance and I needed the money so I accepted the help.  I am frugal with the heating oil, so I still have a credit with the heating oil company from the grants from those years.  I estimate that between the credit and the heating oil currently in the tank, I can go through another 3 to 4 winters before I would need to pay for heating oil out of pocket.  Of course at that time it would make sense to get the heat pump and if the furnace quits working during those years it would make sense to go for the heat pump.  I am questioning if it is worth it to get the heat pump now.  The arguments in favor of getting the heat pump now are that it is what is best for the environment and that the law could change and the 30% discount could disappear.  With the planet in such a state of peril, it does seem more moral to get the heat pump as soon as the discount program is up and running.  The argument in favor of waiting is that I have all of this essentially free oil to use up and no means of converting that money into money I could use to run a heat pump.

What are your thoughts?  Should I get the heat pump as soon as the discount program is up and running or should I wait a couple of years?

[zolotiyeruki]

It sounds like you need to evaluate what your actual goal is here.  As the solar company pointed out, your consumption is low enough that it doesn't make financial sense for you to hire them to install it for you.  You mention two other motivations: to reduce your environmental footprint, and the gratification that comes from energy independence.  You'll have to decide whether those factors are sufficiently motivating for you to proceed.

Sure, you could save 30% of the cost of a new heat pump system by installing it now, or you could save 100% of the cost by not installing it at all, offset by the ongoing oil cost, which is $0 for the next few years.  Could you sell your currently-stored oil to a neighbor, redeem your credit with the oil company, and then sell that oil to your neighbors again?  And then use the proceeds to further offset the cost of a heat pump?

How much would a heat pump increase your electricity usage?  Would it raise your usage enough that the solar companies would be willing to talk to you again?

The whole code/licensing/permitting/grid-tie-in issue is one you'll have to research on your own, since regulations and codes vary dramatically from one area to another.  Some states require licensed installers in order to give credits, and some don't.  Some local codes require a licensed electrician to do the tie-in, while others will just require an inspection.  Call up your local building code office and ask--in my experience, they're pretty helpful folks.

[snic]

"The solar companies aren't willing to put up a system for a house that uses this level of electricity." They will put up a system if you pay for it. I imagine that what they really mean by that statement is that they know you will not buy a system when the payback time is 40 or 50 years. Depending on the size of your roof, you could in theory install an oversized system and sell the excess energy to the utility - but usually the utility will pay only wholesale rates, so the payback time won't be much shorter. If I remember right there might even be some jurisdictions that prohibit you from getting paid for excess electricity.

Rationally, I don't think it makes a lot of sense for someone who uses so little to install solar panels. The other thing you have to consider is that you are responsible for the equipment. It's usually pretty maintenance-free, but not always. I had solar panels on the roof of my previous house and had a constant problem with squirrels getting under them and eating the delicious electrical cables, ruining the microinverters. In all, with your low usage, I think you're on the right track with just buying electricity from renewable sources. It's good to support those enterprises, after all - we need more of them at least as much as we need more rooftop solar.

Re "it would be gratifying to produce electricity at my own home without having to go through an electric company" - remember that most solar systems are grid-connected, so you are still going to be "going through" an electric company in some sense. They provide your electricity at night and when it's cloudy. The only way to escape that is to go off-grid, and that is much more expensive because you need a large battery. Is it really worth it? Probably not.

Re the Amish - why not ask? Is there anything that would prohibit Amish contractors from getting permits? (A friend had some Amish carpenters put up a shed and he was very pleased with the results and the cost - but he said that they wouldn't do any work that requires a permit.)

Re heating: I suspect the credits will be around for a few years, and you will have some notice if/when they are phased out. The other consideration is that the credits are highly dependent on income - if you expect your income to go up significantly in the next few years, don't wait because you are likely to get a much smaller credit.

[Sanitary Stache]

I am also considering making this improvement to our home.

Where we are the standard recommendation is to keep the oil furnace as backup for the coldest stretches. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that thinking but it is a consideration. And it might lead you towards a heat pump mini split to heat one floor or one or two rooms so you don’t need to run the oil furnace as much rather than full replacement.

If we had heating credits we would not plan to replace our furnace until we had used them up. Currently the plan is to wait until the furnace fails, but the incentives that we anticipate might change that. However, I am expecting to find away to use the incentives on other weatherization if we don’t decide to install the whole house heat pump. Like blowing insulation into the walls or repairing the windows or upgrading the wood stove.

I also want solar panels on the roof. But we need a new roof also, so I am wary of the cost of that. I am thinking save up for standing seam roof and then later save up for solar but I think the cost of doing both together might be out of reach. And the roof is more important.

I also think that we will be able to

[Photograph 51]

It sounds like you need to evaluate what your actual goal is here.  As the solar company pointed out, your consumption is low enough that it doesn't make financial sense for you to hire them to install it for you.  You mention two other motivations: to reduce your environmental footprint, and the gratification that comes from energy independence.  You'll have to decide whether those factors are sufficiently motivating for you to proceed.

Sure, you could save 30% of the cost of a new heat pump system by installing it now, or you could save 100% of the cost by not installing it at all, offset by the ongoing oil cost, which is $0 for the next few years.  Could you sell your currently-stored oil to a neighbor, redeem your credit with the oil company, and then sell that oil to your neighbors again?  And then use the proceeds to further offset the cost of a heat pump?

How much would a heat pump increase your electricity usage?  Would it raise your usage enough that the solar companies would be willing to talk to you again?

The whole code/licensing/permitting/grid-tie-in issue is one you'll have to research on your own, since regulations and codes vary dramatically from one area to another.  Some states require licensed installers in order to give credits, and some don't.  Some local codes require a licensed electrician to do the tie-in, while others will just require an inspection.  Call up your local building code office and ask--in my experience, they're pretty helpful folks.

Thanks for the response.  My most important priority is to do what is right for the environment.  My second highest priority is doing what financially makes sense.  My motivation with producing my own electricity is that I don't like my local electric company.  They have a monopoly on the basic service, so they don't seem to feel a need to, say, bill correctly or provide decent customer service.  I would prefer to not give them my money if I could avoid doing so.  I also don't like that there is a basic service charge.  For me, that charge is more than 1/4 of my bill, while for a wasteful person that same service charge would be a tiny fraction of their bill.  That means that I am actually paying more per kilowatt than the wasteful person.  I feel the same way about the water bill.  The minimum fee is for 10,000 gallons per quarter, even though I only need 2000 gallons per quarter.  The water company sends mailers to save water, but their payment structure disincentivizes saving water.

Another motivation is virtue signaling, but I recognize that spending extra for this is ridiculous.  It just bothers me that people like me who are actually being virtuous with our electricity use are ineligible to engage in the virtue signaling of getting solar panels. 

I will need to install a heat pump eventually.  My furnace is 18 years old, so it will need replacement in the foreseeable future.  I have plenty of neighbors nearby (I live in a townhouse), but I am not sure that they have oil furnaces.  I don't see oil tanks on the nearby houses.  Even if they did, I would have to figure out a way to transfer the oil to their tanks, which would probably mean paying the heating oil to transfer it. 

I have thought about the potential for increased energy use with a heat pump.  Also, once my current vehicle (a 2006 Civic hybrid with 227,000 miles) no longer works, I will replace it with an electric vehicle.  Maybe once I have the electric use from fueling a vehicle, the solar companies will be willing to work with me.

[dandarc]

Have you researched whether going off grid is allowed by code in your area? Because a lot of building codes prohibit that and the house already exists and is tied to the grid.

Because you're not going to get away from that fixed charge unless you go fully off grid, and unless you're fine with no electricity at night and little to none on cloudy days, you're going to need something to provide electricity beyond just the panels. And batteries (even more so if you make the heat pump move) can be very expensive.

[Photograph 51]

"The solar companies aren't willing to put up a system for a house that uses this level of electricity." They will put up a system if you pay for it. I imagine that what they really mean by that statement is that they know you will not buy a system when the payback time is 40 or 50 years. Depending on the size of your roof, you could in theory install an oversized system and sell the excess energy to the utility - but usually the utility will pay only wholesale rates, so the payback time won't be much shorter. If I remember right there might even be some jurisdictions that prohibit you from getting paid for excess electricity.

Rationally, I don't think it makes a lot of sense for someone who uses so little to install solar panels. The other thing you have to consider is that you are responsible for the equipment. It's usually pretty maintenance-free, but not always. I had solar panels on the roof of my previous house and had a constant problem with squirrels getting under them and eating the delicious electrical cables, ruining the microinverters. In all, with your low usage, I think you're on the right track with just buying electricity from renewable sources. It's good to support those enterprises, after all - we need more of them at least as much as we need more rooftop solar.

Re "it would be gratifying to produce electricity at my own home without having to go through an electric company" - remember that most solar systems are grid-connected, so you are still going to be "going through" an electric company in some sense. They provide your electricity at night and when it's cloudy. The only way to escape that is to go off-grid, and that is much more expensive because you need a large battery. Is it really worth it? Probably not.

Re the Amish - why not ask? Is there anything that would prohibit Amish contractors from getting permits? (A friend had some Amish carpenters put up a shed and he was very pleased with the results and the cost - but he said that they wouldn't do any work that requires a permit.)

Re heating: I suspect the credits will be around for a few years, and you will have some notice if/when they are phased out. The other consideration is that the credits are highly dependent on income - if you expect your income to go up significantly in the next few years, don't wait because you are likely to get a much smaller credit.

No, I meant exactly what I wrote.  The solar companies are refusing to work with me because of my low electric use.  I guess they have enough other business.  If you try to get an online quote, you will see that they don't even let you give a number lower than $50 for your monthly electric use.  I know it sounds weird, but they are actually refusing business. 

I have been part of Plain culture for long enough to know how many corners Plain people will cut to save money.  I strongly suspect that on Amish houses, a bunch of men just got together and figured out how to put up the solar panels on their own and didn't worry about permits because they weren't going to connect to the electric grid.  The local authorities probably ignored it because that's how it generally goes in our communities.  I can ask around, though, and see if anyone would be willing to put up 5 panels for me and how much it would cost.  If they are willing to do it, the cost would be less than most other companies. 

You make a good point about supporting the companies that provide electricity through sustainable sources.  Maybe that will have to be enough for now.

My income is already at the point where I will only get 30%.  I am planning to FIRE at the end of 2028, so if anything I should try to make my furnace last until 2029 and then get a free heat pump, as long as the credits continue to be available.  I agree that we will probably have some notice that the credits are going away and if they are going to go away soon it would be good to take advantage of them quickly at that time.

[Photograph 51]

I am also considering making this improvement to our home.

Where we are the standard recommendation is to keep the oil furnace as backup for the coldest stretches. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that thinking but it is a consideration. And it might lead you towards a heat pump mini split to heat one floor or one or two rooms so you don’t need to run the oil furnace as much rather than full replacement.

If we had heating credits we would not plan to replace our furnace until we had used them up. Currently the plan is to wait until the furnace fails, but the incentives that we anticipate might change that. However, I am expecting to find away to use the incentives on other weatherization if we don’t decide to install the whole house heat pump. Like blowing insulation into the walls or repairing the windows or upgrading the wood stove.

I also want solar panels on the roof. But we need a new roof also, so I am wary of the cost of that. I am thinking save up for standing seam roof and then later save up for solar but I think the cost of doing both together might be out of reach. And the roof is more important.

I also think that we will be able to

I can't see myself incurring the cost of putting in a heat pump if I have to still have an oil furnace.  I checked and in my area it seems that the climate is mild enough that a heat pump only is okay.    I actually did get a new (desperately needed roof) recently.  It doesn't make sense to put solar panels on an old roof that will just need to get replaced.  I took advantage of the state funded weatherization service when I was a poor grad student and could get it for free.  The only things they weren't willing to do were the windows, the furnace, and the solar panels.  I'm not replacing windows right now because a contractor told me that there is currently a window shortage and that has driven the price up.  I want to wait until the price goes down to replace them.  I looked up state regulations for solar panels and it looks like I would need to hire a company, as I am in a highly regulated state.

[Photograph 51]

Have you researched whether going off grid is allowed by code in your area? Because a lot of building codes prohibit that and the house already exists and is tied to the grid.

Because you're not going to get away from that fixed charge unless you go fully off grid, and unless you're fine with no electricity at night and little to none on cloudy days, you're going to need something to provide electricity beyond just the panels. And batteries (even more so if you make the heat pump move) can be very expensive.

I didn't mention going off the grid and that is not something that I am considering.  I can get away from the fixed charge through solar panels because the local electric company will let my electric go to $0 but no lower.  They will let the solar panel generation cover the fixed charge.  I checked.

[NorCal]

So I installed a heat-pump over the summer.  Here's my wisdom to pass along:

1. Don't wait for something to fail.  You want a contractor that is a heat-pump specialist, and these guys are booked months in advance now.  If you wait for something to fail, it may be near-impossible to get when you really need it.  Hopefully this will change over the next few years, but it will take a while.
2. Go for a variable speed unit.  They're more expensive, but also more efficient.  My Mitsubishi unit is a 19 SEER, which replaced a 16 SEER unit.  Variable speed helps keep the house appropriately warm in the winter and cool in the summer.  A single speed unit will likely be overpowered in one season or the other (since most climates have either a higher heating or cooling need).
3. Look at everything you may want to electrify in the future (car, water heater, stove, etc), and make sure your house can support that.  If it can't, you're probably better off upgrading your panel & electrical service with the heat-pump.  You don't want to have to redo this later.  The Inflation Reduction Act has incentives for this as well.

Another consideration is whether you have anything else that doesn't run on electricity?  I found heat-pump water heaters to have a higher ROI and lower up-front costs.  Think about what else you could convert to electric.  EV/PHEV?  Combined with the heat-pump, you could get to the point where you're using enough electricity for solar.  And there's a rationale to converting everything possible to electric before adding solar, as you'll end up with a more accurately sized solar system. 

The heat-pump alone will likely add a few hundred to your annual electric bill, so that might make the difference to getting solar contractors interested.

[dandarc]

Have you researched whether going off grid is allowed by code in your area? Because a lot of building codes prohibit that and the house already exists and is tied to the grid.

Because you're not going to get away from that fixed charge unless you go fully off grid, and unless you're fine with no electricity at night and little to none on cloudy days, you're going to need something to provide electricity beyond just the panels. And batteries (even more so if you make the heat pump move) can be very expensive.

I didn't mention going off the grid and that is not something that I am considering.  I can get away from the fixed charge through solar panels because the local electric company will let my electric go to $0 but no lower.  They will let the solar panel generation cover the fixed charge.  I checked.

You're still paying that charge, but by having a larger solar array than would otherwise be necessary. But these things are impossible to dial in precisely, so there's going to be some slop anyway. Is there any kind of rollover or if you go past zero in a given month are you just out of luck?

[zolotiyeruki]

Do you have to prove your electricity usage to the solar companies, or can you say "I spend $100/mo on electricity," and they size and install based on your statement?

[ChpBstrd]

So I installed a heat-pump over the summer.  Here's my wisdom to pass along:

1. Don't wait for something to fail.  You want a contractor that is a heat-pump specialist, and these guys are booked months in advance now.  If you wait for something to fail, it may be near-impossible to get when you really need it.  Hopefully this will change over the next few years, but it will take a while.
2. Go for a variable speed unit.  They're more expensive, but also more efficient.  My Mitsubishi unit is a 19 SEER, which replaced a 16 SEER unit.  Variable speed helps keep the house appropriately warm in the winter and cool in the summer.  A single speed unit will likely be overpowered in one season or the other (since most climates have either a higher heating or cooling need).
3. Look at everything you may want to electrify in the future (car, water heater, stove, etc), and make sure your house can support that.  If it can't, you're probably better off upgrading your panel & electrical service with the heat-pump.  You don't want to have to redo this later.  The Inflation Reduction Act has incentives for this as well.

Another consideration is whether you have anything else that doesn't run on electricity?  I found heat-pump water heaters to have a higher ROI and lower up-front costs.  Think about what else you could convert to electric.  EV/PHEV?  Combined with the heat-pump, you could get to the point where you're using enough electricity for solar.  And there's a rationale to converting everything possible to electric before adding solar, as you'll end up with a more accurately sized solar system. 

The heat-pump alone will likely add a few hundred to your annual electric bill, so that might make the difference to getting solar contractors interested.

This resembles my experience. Although NG is more reliable, I decided to eventually electrify everything and ditch that bill. This will save me the expense of having to re-pipe my house in the coming years. I also want to improve my indoor air quality. My gas water heater started leaking in Dec. and was replaced with electric. Next time the stove or dryer have a problem, I'll replace them with electric models.

First, I had to spend $3500 upgrading my antique electrical panel and running some new lines. Then I had to pay for solar panel installation. No sooner than I had cut the first check for solar panels, my circa 2007 heat pump went out just as summer was beginning. $10k fixed that. I went with a 2 speed model, and my chronic humidity problems disappeared.

In the OP's case, I'm thinking the following:

1) Take the advice of the solar panel installers when they say it doesn't make economic sense. You're doing an amazing job with energy conservation, and that's a better environmental impact than having panels, which themselves have an environmental footprint. If you're truly fascinated by the subject, consider self-training in panel installation or buy some used panels and an ebay inverter to tinker with as a hobby to see if you can get them to run a heat strip. However be aware that this is NOT a job that can be done with some wire nuts and a plug-in. The building codes are serious, the inspectors are nitpicky, and you absolutely will be rejected by the inspector, and have to do rework, etc. if they allow you to self-install at all. Now if you need to buy an electric car, that might be a different proposition.

2) An oil furnace has a 20-25 year lifespan, so your 18yo is nearing end-of-life but not there yet. There's no way I would replace a working oil furnace if I also had 3-4 years worth of oil and credits. That would be incredibly wasteful, because you could be leaving years of working equipment lifespan on the table, plus forfeiting lots of money, only to pay extra to put additional years of wear and tear on a heat pump, AND paying lots more for electricity at the same time. However you need to think about backup plans, such as having a couple of electric space heaters around, or a wood-burning stove.

Solar and heat pumps may be the solutions for most people, but in your case lifestyle optimization may be in other directions.

[Photograph 51]

Do you have to prove your electricity usage to the solar companies, or can you say "I spend $100/mo on electricity," and they size and install based on your statement?

I suppose I could call them all back and tell them that my electricity needs suddenly skyrocketed, but does that really seem like a good idea?

[zolotiyeruki]

Do you have to prove your electricity usage to the solar companies, or can you say "I spend $100/mo on electricity," and they size and install based on your statement?

I suppose I could call them all back and tell them that my electricity needs suddenly skyrocketed, but does that really seem like a good idea?

Why would it be a bad idea?  You're not going to damage anything (other than your checking account) by having an oversized system.

[Photograph 51]

So I installed a heat-pump over the summer.  Here's my wisdom to pass along:

1. Don't wait for something to fail.  You want a contractor that is a heat-pump specialist, and these guys are booked months in advance now.  If you wait for something to fail, it may be near-impossible to get when you really need it.  Hopefully this will change over the next few years, but it will take a while.
2. Go for a variable speed unit.  They're more expensive, but also more efficient.  My Mitsubishi unit is a 19 SEER, which replaced a 16 SEER unit.  Variable speed helps keep the house appropriately warm in the winter and cool in the summer.  A single speed unit will likely be overpowered in one season or the other (since most climates have either a higher heating or cooling need).
3. Look at everything you may want to electrify in the future (car, water heater, stove, etc), and make sure your house can support that.  If it can't, you're probably better off upgrading your panel & electrical service with the heat-pump.  You don't want to have to redo this later.  The Inflation Reduction Act has incentives for this as well.

Another consideration is whether you have anything else that doesn't run on electricity?  I found heat-pump water heaters to have a higher ROI and lower up-front costs.  Think about what else you could convert to electric.  EV/PHEV?  Combined with the heat-pump, you could get to the point where you're using enough electricity for solar.  And there's a rationale to converting everything possible to electric before adding solar, as you'll end up with a more accurately sized solar system. 

The heat-pump alone will likely add a few hundred to your annual electric bill, so that might make the difference to getting solar contractors interested.

This resembles my experience. Although NG is more reliable, I decided to eventually electrify everything and ditch that bill. This will save me the expense of having to re-pipe my house in the coming years. I also want to improve my indoor air quality. My gas water heater started leaking in Dec. and was replaced with electric. Next time the stove or dryer have a problem, I'll replace them with electric models.

First, I had to spend $3500 upgrading my antique electrical panel and running some new lines. Then I had to pay for solar panel installation. No sooner than I had cut the first check for solar panels, my circa 2007 heat pump went out just as summer was beginning. $10k fixed that. I went with a 2 speed model, and my chronic humidity problems disappeared.

In the OP's case, I'm thinking the following:

1) Take the advice of the solar panel installers when they say it doesn't make economic sense. You're doing an amazing job with energy conservation, and that's a better environmental impact than having panels, which themselves have an environmental footprint. If you're truly fascinated by the subject, consider self-training in panel installation or buy some used panels and an ebay inverter to tinker with as a hobby to see if you can get them to run a heat strip. However be aware that this is NOT a job that can be done with some wire nuts and a plug-in. The building codes are serious, the inspectors are nitpicky, and you absolutely will be rejected by the inspector, and have to do rework, etc. if they allow you to self-install at all. Now if you need to buy an electric car, that might be a different proposition.

2) An oil furnace has a 20-25 year lifespan, so your 18yo is nearing end-of-life but not there yet. There's no way I would replace a working oil furnace if I also had 3-4 years worth of oil and credits. That would be incredibly wasteful, because you could be leaving years of working equipment lifespan on the table, plus forfeiting lots of money, only to pay extra to put additional years of wear and tear on a heat pump, AND paying lots more for electricity at the same time. However you need to think about backup plans, such as having a couple of electric space heaters around, or a wood-burning stove.

Solar and heat pumps may be the solutions for most people, but in your case lifestyle optimization may be in other directions.

Thanks for the support.  I have less than no interest in trying to rig up a solar panel setup myself.  After reading what people on this thread are saying, I am leaning toward waiting until my car needs to be replaced to get the solar panels, since then my electric needs will be substantial enough to merit a typical system.  I do have a couple of space heaters- one that I got from a yard sale and one that my daughter bought because I am too frugal with the heat for her tastes.  I just looked at how much electricity a heat pump uses and I think for the level of heating that I do it would be $200 per year to run it (I don't do air conditioning.)  It does seem to make more sense to wait until I have used up most of my heating oil before doing the replacement, especially if the furnace continues to not give me problems.  Also, the way my house is set up makes a wood stove not a good option because the stove would have to be too close to walls to match up with the chimneys and that would be a fire risk.  I already had a professional come out for an install years ago and it was a hard "no."

[NorCal]

So I installed a heat-pump over the summer.  Here's my wisdom to pass along:

1. Don't wait for something to fail.  You want a contractor that is a heat-pump specialist, and these guys are booked months in advance now.  If you wait for something to fail, it may be near-impossible to get when you really need it.  Hopefully this will change over the next few years, but it will take a while.
2. Go for a variable speed unit.  They're more expensive, but also more efficient.  My Mitsubishi unit is a 19 SEER, which replaced a 16 SEER unit.  Variable speed helps keep the house appropriately warm in the winter and cool in the summer.  A single speed unit will likely be overpowered in one season or the other (since most climates have either a higher heating or cooling need).
3. Look at everything you may want to electrify in the future (car, water heater, stove, etc), and make sure your house can support that.  If it can't, you're probably better off upgrading your panel & electrical service with the heat-pump.  You don't want to have to redo this later.  The Inflation Reduction Act has incentives for this as well.

Another consideration is whether you have anything else that doesn't run on electricity?  I found heat-pump water heaters to have a higher ROI and lower up-front costs.  Think about what else you could convert to electric.  EV/PHEV?  Combined with the heat-pump, you could get to the point where you're using enough electricity for solar.  And there's a rationale to converting everything possible to electric before adding solar, as you'll end up with a more accurately sized solar system. 

The heat-pump alone will likely add a few hundred to your annual electric bill, so that might make the difference to getting solar contractors interested.

This resembles my experience. Although NG is more reliable, I decided to eventually electrify everything and ditch that bill. This will save me the expense of having to re-pipe my house in the coming years. I also want to improve my indoor air quality. My gas water heater started leaking in Dec. and was replaced with electric. Next time the stove or dryer have a problem, I'll replace them with electric models.

First, I had to spend $3500 upgrading my antique electrical panel and running some new lines. Then I had to pay for solar panel installation. No sooner than I had cut the first check for solar panels, my circa 2007 heat pump went out just as summer was beginning. $10k fixed that. I went with a 2 speed model, and my chronic humidity problems disappeared.

In the OP's case, I'm thinking the following:

1) Take the advice of the solar panel installers when they say it doesn't make economic sense. You're doing an amazing job with energy conservation, and that's a better environmental impact than having panels, which themselves have an environmental footprint. If you're truly fascinated by the subject, consider self-training in panel installation or buy some used panels and an ebay inverter to tinker with as a hobby to see if you can get them to run a heat strip. However be aware that this is NOT a job that can be done with some wire nuts and a plug-in. The building codes are serious, the inspectors are nitpicky, and you absolutely will be rejected by the inspector, and have to do rework, etc. if they allow you to self-install at all. Now if you need to buy an electric car, that might be a different proposition.

2) An oil furnace has a 20-25 year lifespan, so your 18yo is nearing end-of-life but not there yet. There's no way I would replace a working oil furnace if I also had 3-4 years worth of oil and credits. That would be incredibly wasteful, because you could be leaving years of working equipment lifespan on the table, plus forfeiting lots of money, only to pay extra to put additional years of wear and tear on a heat pump, AND paying lots more for electricity at the same time. However you need to think about backup plans, such as having a couple of electric space heaters around, or a wood-burning stove.

Solar and heat pumps may be the solutions for most people, but in your case lifestyle optimization may be in other directions.

Thanks for the support.  I have less than no interest in trying to rig up a solar panel setup myself.  After reading what people on this thread are saying, I am leaning toward waiting until my car needs to be replaced to get the solar panels, since then my electric needs will be substantial enough to merit a typical system.  I do have a couple of space heaters- one that I got from a yard sale and one that my daughter bought because I am too frugal with the heat for her tastes.  I just looked at how much electricity a heat pump uses and I think for the level of heating that I do it would be $200 per year to run it (I don't do air conditioning.)  It does seem to make more sense to wait until I have used up most of my heating oil before doing the replacement, especially if the furnace continues to not give me problems.  Also, the way my house is set up makes a wood stove not a good option because the stove would have to be too close to walls to match up with the chimneys and that would be a fire risk.  I already had a professional come out for an install years ago and it was a hard "no."

Your thought process here is sound.  It's great to have a long term plan, and you don't have to rush it.

The only other thing I would recommend is to have your furnace professionally inspected.  You're set if your furnace will last longer than the heating oil.  You may want to reconsider if an inspection reveals your furnace has only a season or two left.

[NorCal]

As a fun math-nerd exercise, you can compare the emissions of heating your home with heating oil vs. electricity.  Heating Oil creates 22.45lbs of emissions per gallon.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php

The emissions intensity of electricity varies heavily on where you live.  You can find the output emissions rate (lb/MWh) for your region at the link below.  The data only goes through 2020, but your utility may publish their own specific data.  Google "[your utility] emissions intensity"

https://www.epa.gov/egrid/data-explorer

Depending on where you live, the emissions associated with a heat pump may or may not be lower than with other heating sources today.  Electrification is an important part of emissions reductions, but that goes along with cleaning up the grid.  This is happening pretty rapidly in some areas, and slower in other areas.  You could be in a situation where heating oil is more efficient today, but electricity is more efficient five years from now.

In my case, Colorado's electricity is cleaning up pretty fast.  I estimate my home's emissions was about 17,000lbs in 2020, but electrification and energy efficiency projects should get me down to about 9,000lbs next year.  The answer would be very different if I lived in Wyoming though.

[Sanitary Stache]

So I installed a heat-pump over the summer.  Here's my wisdom to pass along:

1. Don't wait for something to fail.  You want a contractor that is a heat-pump specialist, and these guys are booked months in advance now.  If you wait for something to fail, it may be near-impossible to get when you really need it.  Hopefully this will change over the next few years, but it will take a while.
2. Go for a variable speed unit.  They're more expensive, but also more efficient.  My Mitsubishi unit is a 19 SEER, which replaced a 16 SEER unit.  Variable speed helps keep the house appropriately warm in the winter and cool in the summer.  A single speed unit will likely be overpowered in one season or the other (since most climates have either a higher heating or cooling need).
3. Look at everything you may want to electrify in the future (car, water heater, stove, etc), and make sure your house can support that.  If it can't, you're probably better off upgrading your panel & electrical service with the heat-pump.  You don't want to have to redo this later.  The Inflation Reduction Act has incentives for this as well.

Thanks for sharing.  My furnace is over 20 years old and I am sure HVAC suppliers/contractors are booking at least 3-4 months out.  We are heating with wood primarily this year and don't have extended travel plans, so an oil furnace failure wouldn't be an emergency, just an inconvenience, but one I'd rather not have.
I would like to know what subsidy will be available with the Inflation Reduction Act.  I should make some calls to who I had install the hybrid hot water heater.

[GilesMM]

Try www.energysage.com

They will have you upload an electric bid.  Vendors should then review your property on Google Earth and make preliminary bids. You need to let them know you will be installing a heat pump so they can add the extra capacity.

[snic]

I would like to know what subsidy will be available with the Inflation Reduction Act.  I should make some calls to who I had install the hybrid hot water heater.

You can find out exactly what the subsidy will be here:

https://www.rewiringamerica.org/app/ira-calculator

Your state, municipality and/or utility might also provide additional credits.

[Sanitary Stache]

I would like to know what subsidy will be available with the Inflation Reduction Act.  I should make some calls to who I had install the hybrid hot water heater.

You can find out exactly what the subsidy will be here:

https://www.rewiringamerica.org/app/ira-calculator

Your state, municipality and/or utility might also provide additional credits.

I went there. That a good reference!

[catccc]

Are you me?  We just got a new roof, just signed up to buy a solar system, and have oil heat (furnace is at least 15 years old) and want to switch to a heat pump eventually.  Except it sounds like you use way less electricity than we do.  In the last year it was about 9,000 kwh.  What does your usage look like and how is it so low?!

Also, you were talking about Amish and I am not far from them in PA.  Are you open to sharing what solar vendors you considered?  Feel free to send me a PM!

Also, I was thinking if we got a heat pump, PA winters are cold enough that an oil back up might be warranted.  Would love to know what info you used to determine that a heat pump alone would be sufficient.  (Would love to think that, myself...)

[NorCal]

I know nothing about heating oil.  Is it possible to resell a portion?  Or is that logistically impractical?

I just saw a headline (paywall blocked) about expectations of a heating oil shortage this year.  There might be an option to resell some for a profit if you have multiple years worth in storage.

[tyrannostache]

Hi all, I wanted to piggyback on this thread, since my question is kind of related. We are in the far frozen north of the US, and we would like to get off fossil fuels if possible.

Last year, we installed solar panels. We wrapped this in with a much-needed panel replacement and some other electrical work, which benefited from the tax rebate. Cool. So far, we have more than offset our annual energy usage (generated 7,000 kWh, consumed 5,000 kWh so far this year). Net offset is the goal. The system should pay for itself in approx. 8-9 years, sooner as we slowly replace some gas guzzling appliances with electric.

Step one is INSULATE EVERYTHING. We're about halfway done with that.

Step two is trying to pencil out where it makes sense to invest in electric or more efficient appliances. To that end:

Stove: was electric glass-top. Since it just died, we'll be converting to induction later this month. If averages are a guide, annual consumption of 225 kWh will likely reduce to annual consumption of 175 kWh. Financially, it may not be worth the premium price for an induction stove, but we're in it for dialing down our usage.

Furnace and AC: Gas forced air furnace, standard AC, both fairly new (2017).  It likely won't make sense to replace these for a long time. Solar easily offsets the AC use. Hopefully, our increased insulation will help to bring down both heating and cooling usage.

Water heater: current model is a gas tank, installed in 2009. An upcoming basement renovation (to add a needed bedroom and make a more functional bathroom) gives us some flexibility to reconfigure the utility room. We could probably make a hybrid electric heat pump water heater work, and we could use the $1200 tax credit to bring down the cost...

     The question is: hybrid electric heat pump water heater, or gas tankless?

From an efficiency standpoint, I'd be all for the HPWH, but I'm concerned that it will make the basement too cold in winter. It will live in a utility room in the finished basement, not far from my bedroom. Does anyone in a cold climate have experience with these?

[GilesMM]

...

Water heater: current model is a gas tank, installed in 2009. An upcoming basement renovation (to add a needed bedroom and make a more functional bathroom) gives us some flexibility to reconfigure the utility room. We could probably make a hybrid electric heat pump water heater work, and we could use the $1200 tax credit to bring down the cost...

     The question is: hybrid electric heat pump water heater, or gas tankless?

From an efficiency standpoint, I'd be all for the HPWH, but I'm concerned that it will make the basement too cold in winter. It will live in a utility room in the finished basement, not far from my bedroom. Does anyone in a cold climate have experience with these?

Hybrid electric but ensure you have the required space for the ventilation.  They need like 400 square feet or something or a dedicated vent installed.  Also be aware the fan makes some noise.

[dandarc]

@tyrannostache  - If you're concerned with excessive cooling from the heat pump water heater, you can duct the output to outside - actually probably going to go with some kind of baffle setup whenever we do this same thing (gas tank to HPWH) so I can put the cool air into the house when that is preferable - 6-9 months out of the year and out of the house in the winter. Older house in Florida - thing is in an exterior closet that is basically open to the wall with all the pipes for just about the whole house, so I'm concerned about freezing pipes more-so than comfort.

Sounds like your cooling need is probably relatively low even in summer, so you might just duct to outside and call it good.

[dandarc]

Also you can duct the input if necessary as well. Or just a fully louvered door to utility room if it is too small for airflow on its own.

[NorCal]

Hi all, I wanted to piggyback on this thread, since my question is kind of related. We are in the far frozen north of the US, and we would like to get off fossil fuels if possible.

Last year, we installed solar panels. We wrapped this in with a much-needed panel replacement and some other electrical work, which benefited from the tax rebate. Cool. So far, we have more than offset our annual energy usage (generated 7,000 kWh, consumed 5,000 kWh so far this year). Net offset is the goal. The system should pay for itself in approx. 8-9 years, sooner as we slowly replace some gas guzzling appliances with electric.

Step one is INSULATE EVERYTHING. We're about halfway done with that.

Step two is trying to pencil out where it makes sense to invest in electric or more efficient appliances. To that end:

Stove: was electric glass-top. Since it just died, we'll be converting to induction later this month. If averages are a guide, annual consumption of 225 kWh will likely reduce to annual consumption of 175 kWh. Financially, it may not be worth the premium price for an induction stove, but we're in it for dialing down our usage.

Furnace and AC: Gas forced air furnace, standard AC, both fairly new (2017).  It likely won't make sense to replace these for a long time. Solar easily offsets the AC use. Hopefully, our increased insulation will help to bring down both heating and cooling usage.

Water heater: current model is a gas tank, installed in 2009. An upcoming basement renovation (to add a needed bedroom and make a more functional bathroom) gives us some flexibility to reconfigure the utility room. We could probably make a hybrid electric heat pump water heater work, and we could use the $1200 tax credit to bring down the cost...

     The question is: hybrid electric heat pump water heater, or gas tankless?

From an efficiency standpoint, I'd be all for the HPWH, but I'm concerned that it will make the basement too cold in winter. It will live in a utility room in the finished basement, not far from my bedroom. Does anyone in a cold climate have experience with these?

I have some experience with this. 

First off, I think you're overestimating your savings from induction cooking.  While cooking uses a lot of energy, most of that comes from the oven.  My old electric stove top only uses about 100kWh of energy per year, and the oven is several times that.  There are quality reasons to go with induction, but the stovetop isn't enough of an energy user to justify induction on energy saving merits.  Or maybe I'm just publicly admitting how lazy I've gotten at cooking. 

I installed a heat-pump water heater in my basement about a year ago.  It's in a large unvented utility/storage room.  While the room itself does get colder, it doesn't have much of an impact on the basement as a whole.  The basement itself is generally cold in the winter, but I think that has more to do with me shutting some of the vents down there than the HPWH.  I would unscientifically say the basement might be slightly cooler than it used to be, but not so much I'm worried about overall HVAC efficiency or effectiveness.

As mentioned elsewhere, venting is an option, although I don't feel it's necessary.  Remember, if you're pushing air outside, new air is coming in the house somewhere.

The one consideration for you is noise.  I would compare it to a window AC unit.  It's fine for me in the utility room, but I can hear it elsewhere in the basement.

For energy usage considerations, my old gas water heater used about 285 therms of gas a year and 144kWh for the power vent.  The HPWH is going to come in right around 1,200kWh for the year.  That's a savings of about $160/yr with my local utility rates and about 2,200lbs of annual emissions eliminated based on my utility's emissions intensity.  This project can have a massively good ROI under the new inflation reduction act incentives.

[snic]

Step one is INSULATE EVERYTHING. We're about halfway done with that.

Hopefully you're not just insulating, but also air sealing! Insulation is only half the battle.

[tyrannostache]

Thanks, all! I should have known that this forum would be the place to go for realistic discussions about energy efficiency and the benefits/drawbacks of different choices. Love it.

@snic, yes to air sealing! We're finishing up the attic this fall. There were some massive insulation gaps and air leaks up there last winter (we moved in late summer). The basement is super leaky (in terms of air, not water), so we'll button that up with the remodel.

@NorCal, I'm not expecting a large savings from induction cooking--the numbers I plugged in were average annual figures from electric vs. induction cooktops. The oven will continue to eat up electricity. I love to bake.

Noise from a HPWH fan could be a problem. If we put it where the current gas WH lives, it will be right up against my bedroom wall.We'll be taking down all the curtain walls and replumbing the whole dang basement bathroom (including cracking into the slab), so we might be able to push it over to another spot without a huge cost. Or maybe we'll just need to figure out some good sound damping for that one wall...

[Photograph 51]

Are you me?  We just got a new roof, just signed up to buy a solar system, and have oil heat (furnace is at least 15 years old) and want to switch to a heat pump eventually.  Except it sounds like you use way less electricity than we do.  In the last year it was about 9,000 kwh.  What does your usage look like and how is it so low?!

Now that my child has sort of moved out and it's just me, I am down to 3 to 4 Kw per day, so 100 or so per month.  Once heating season starts, it will go up to maybe 140 Kw per month.  I don't use air conditioning.  I am miserly with the heat.  I don't use a clothes dryer.  I don't have a TV.  I only have lights on in rooms I am in, with energy efficiency lightbulbs.  I did the state's weatherization program back when I could get it done for free because I was a poor grad student.  I am not home a lot because I work a lot, instead.  I don't use the water heater, but instead heat up a couple of gallons on the stove for bathing (I wash dishes and clothes in hot water, but I can't bear cold water for washing me.)  I cover pots when cooking.  I bake all oven items at the same time and turn off the oven early to take advantage of the residual heat.  My one electric luxury is the chest freezer, but I save more than enough money on food to make it worth the extra electricity.  I'm baffled by how high electric bills are for other people. 

[tyrannostache]

Well done, @Photograph 51. That's an impressively low number, even for just one person. As a family of 4, we use anywhere from 10-25 kWh per day. Higher days certainly include AC or clothes dryer usage.

Confounding factors include my spouse running a personal server, and the fact that I work from home in front of a couple of big screens.

[catccc]

Okay, well, that's amazingly low usage, for sure!  I need to figure out how all of ours is getting used.  Even when we are away it is 12-14 kwh/day.

[BikeFanatic]

You are doing an amazing job saving all that energy!
I am in a similar boat to you, but I use more electric. I am considering buying an electric vehicle and
Converting more of my heat from oil to electric by installing another heat pump. By using electric for heat over oil, this should raise my electric bill enough to justify the solar costs.
I have low income now that I am Fire, so tax credits will not help much unless I do IRA withdrawals.
Maybe 401k withdrawals. I hate to sell stock low though.

My point is if you keep the oil due to the credit but add a heat pump or two, and add electric charger for your future vehicle, which is coming if you have 227k on your car, then your electric bill will be high enough to justify the transition, imo, based on my calculations.

I am starting my solar journey with a DIY solar shed to charge electric bikes, then I will work on a battery back up for when we loose power here, which happens a lot in hurricane season and winter.
Then I will consider the roof top solar professionally installed which I will try to have battery back up
But may just get grid tied based on the price and credits. Good luck with your plans.

[valsecito]

If your first priority is ecology and the second your bank account, you may want to think more widely.

I had my home renovated to very high energy/ecology standards and paid a lot of money for that. Other options would have yielded similar ecological savings and higher financial returns. Just as an example, I have acquaintances in the Baltics with single pane glass and no thermostatic valves on the radiators in their >100 years old apartments.

Cheap window improvements for them, renovating my home much more modestly and keeping the difference invested would have been far better both in terms of ecology and my bank account.

[EchoStache]

Just to throw a number out there, Tesla will install a 6.4kW system for $10,349 after IRA incentives.  Although small, I assume this would be plenty to cover all your future energy needs even with EV, heat pump, induction stove, heat pump water heater, etc.  Perhaps this would be a small enough price for you to pay to have essentially free energy for the rest of your life for your home and car(s), while being 100% clean, green energy.

I have a brand new gas furnace and gas stove.  In January, I'll be switching the stove to induction, mostly for the improved air quality since I am asthmatic and very sensitive to fumes and such.  The side benefit is that it will make solar a better value for me.  I already have a new heat pump water heater with a net cost of $500 including installation.  I replaced a brand new 2 month old electric water heater(which my plumber took as payment).

I have Tesla coming to my house January 6th to estimate a system for me(house is too new for their "automated" design process as there is no satellite imaging of our roof yet). We use a lot of electricity, maybe 1,000-1200 kWh/month with one EV and a 60 mile daily roundtrip commute for work.  We are getting a 2nd EV.  Household of 5, all over 18.  Totally jealous of your low electricity use but not reasonably possible for us. 

I will be getting estimates on having a high efficiency variable speed heat pump installed in order to stop burning gas and get the most benefit from our solar.  The thought of retiring with no energy costs for home or autos for the rest of our lives sounds pretty amazing.

[teen persuasion]

Great thread, lots of good info!

You are doing an amazing job saving all that energy!
I am in a similar boat to you, but I use more electric. I am considering buying an electric vehicle and
Converting more of my heat from oil to electric by installing another heat pump. By using electric for heat over oil, this should raise my electric bill enough to justify the solar costs.
I have low income now that I am Fire, so tax credits will not help much unless I do IRA withdrawals.
Maybe 401k withdrawals. I hate to sell stock low though.

My point is if you keep the oil due to the credit but add a heat pump or two, and add electric charger for your future vehicle, which is coming if you have 227k on your car, then your electric bill will be high enough to justify the transition, imo, based on my calculations.

I am starting my solar journey with a DIY solar shed to charge electric bikes, then I will work on a battery back up for when we loose power here, which happens a lot in hurricane season and winter.
Then I will consider the roof top solar professionally installed which I will try to have battery back up
But may just get grid tied based on the price and credits. Good luck with your plans.

We are trying to think long term, and do things in the best order.
Currently our electric usage is fairly low, 5-7kwh per day, and yeah the base fee is nearly half the monthly expense.  Want to transition off oil heat and water heating, and propane stove for cooking, and eventually add EV, with solar added once we've figured out the electric usage.

We got a quote for a geothermal system this fall, well over $50k but they estimated half would be covered by tax incentives.  Umm, no - those incentives are non-refundable, and we wouldn't qualify!  I hate when being low income/tax efficient/Mustachian means we get to pay more than higher income people.  At the time, the new incentives weren't clear, so we let it drop.

The new upfront discounts are much better for us, but I'm not sure how they may play into a geothermal system.  We also talked with the geothermal guy about all our plans and he said solar w/ batteries couldn't run the geothermal heating/hot water, too big of a surge demand (in case of power failures, which we get occasionally).

We will work on insulating and sealing, upgrading electric panel, induction stove in the meantime.  Still waiting to see how the new incentives get implemented.  Are they lifetime limits, or annual?

[BicycleB]

If your first priority is ecology and the second your bank account, you may want to think more widely.

I had my home renovated to very high energy/ecology standards and paid a lot of money for that. Other options would have yielded similar ecological savings and higher financial returns. Just as an example, I have acquaintances in the Baltics with single pane glass and no thermostatic valves on the radiators in their >100 years old apartments.

Cheap window improvements for them, renovating my home much more modestly and keeping the difference invested would have been far better both in terms of ecology and my bank account.

@valsecito, great example!!

OP, the cheapest and most efficient thing you can do is skip the virtue signaling part and just roll with the excellent efficiency you already have.

I understand the appeal of independence from a disliked entity. But our species' way of life is still interdependent; spending cash on the last few ergs to reach apparent 100% independence from one company just reduces the money available to have bigger impacts somewhere else.

Good job with your insulation, habits etc - you're in the realm of well-earned but diminishing returns. From here on out you trade efficiency (which you have) for satisfaction. The last bit of perceived "independence" is more expensive, which in the long run means you would incur an opportunity cost - financially and in terms of helping others with their energy efficiency - to gain the feeling of independence.

Fwiw, if anyone digs, they'll be very impressed by the efficiency you do have. In my book that's more impressive than solar panels. It's possible that sharing your skills/ example could increase others' efficiency with less investment of scarce resources than solar panels throughout the neighborhood.

[bill1827]

last few ergs

Well that's a blast from the past, haven't heard that term since I was at school 50+ years ago.

It didn't make it from the CGS system to the SI system.

[EchoStache]

@Photograph 51

I was giving some thought to your situation and thought I'd share where my brain went in case you find it helpful.

I'd check with the Amish in your area about installation since you need such a small system to cover your energy needs.  I suspect you'll have to do all the work for approval/permits, and the Amish may not be willing to get involved in all that.  IDK.  Otherwise, I doubt you'll find a better price than Tesla based on what I've heard/read.

However, the big thing I wanted to mention, especially with your interest in EV, energy independence, etc, is to consider a Nissan Leaf.  It's one of the only EV's that has bidirectional charging and this could potentially be a HUGE benefit in a solar system.  If you are able to get a solar system set up that could use the Leaf as emergency backup power, you would have the equivalent of 4-6 Tesla power walls of battery backup for your home.  Even the smallest Leaf battery I think is 40 kW which = 4 power walls i.e. $50,000 worth of battery backup.  With your low electrical needs this would probably give you a week of emergency backup electricity.  I know going off grid wasn't necessarily an important goal for you but this might make it realistic and kind of a "why not".

Not sure if Tesla would configure your solar system to work with en EV for backup so it might be something you have to DIY or maybe work with a local company that's willing to do it.  I haven't researched this topic to see how feasible it is but thought it worth mentioning.