From a simple math standpoint it doesn't seem sustainable at all.
Most people who say that haven't actually looked at the math.
Not you, persay, but most doom and gloomers about Social Security just heard it's in trouble and unsustainable and parrot that. Sure, as is - to infinity - it can't stay the same, so one could technically call it "unsustainable". Okay, fine.
But it's probably more stable than you think.
Here are some facts that might alleviate some worries people reading this thread might have:
1) Social Security currently has a huge surplus of money AND a surplus coming in every year still (more being paid in than out). The program's trust fund is projected to continue to grow steadily until 2027.
Yes, as more boomers retire that surplus per year will switch to a deficit per year, starting to eat at the surplus chunk of money sitting there (which is almost 3 Trillion at this point).
2) After that, officials estimate there will be sufficient money to pay 100 percent of benefits until 2041, when the surplus is expected to be exhausted.
That's right, Social Security - as is - can last for another 30 or so years, with no changes and paying out 100% of current benefits.
3) From that year on, payroll tax revenue alone should be able to meet 78 percent of the program's obligations — even if no changes are made.
Yup, if you hit SS age 30 years from now, even if the only change is made is to reduce benefits
at that time, you'll still get nearly an 80% payout just based on the money still flowing in from current workers.
Yet we're looking at making changes
now (slightly older retirement age, means testing, etc.) So likely it will be fine for much, much longer than that 30 years.
Meaning if you want to plan very conservatively, go for a projection of 75% of SS (this would assume that we never change SS at all, a silly assumption, but fine, assume we make no changes, you'll at least get that). 50% if you're really, really paranoid and think...??? But to assume
no Social Security is ridiculous.
I'd be more worried about the collapse of the US as a whole than I would be about the collapse of Social Security.