I have about the same loan value and I just refi'd to a 15 year. The rate was much lower, 2.9 compared to 3.3 for 30 year term. Also, we do plan to be in the house forever, and we want to pay off the house before FIRE, so it works perfectly for us. We also ended up with really low closing costs, about $1500, so it seems to have worked out all the way for us. Like you, to refi to a 30 year would only save us $100 a month or so, and since we plan to stay, we didn't want to extend the term that long. Although, if i could have gotten under 3% for 30 years, I would have certainly considered it, just for flexibility in the payments.