Short timers and estimating health care costs

[anotherAlias]

With all of the uncertainty around health insurance here in the US in the near term, how are those of you that are looking to retire in the next 5 yrs or so estimating your future health care expenses?  With some recent shake ups at work, I've been pouring over my spreadsheets analyzing my exit plan.  I have been tracking my expenses for about 7 yrs and am comfortable with my estimates for all of my living expenses with the exception of health care.  I currently don't pay anything for premiums and minimal in actual dr visit/drug/therapy expenses.  I was using Healthcare.gov for estimates of premiums and kind of guessing at cost of my actual usage but I'm not really confident in those numbers.  Up until now, I was taking a wait and see approach but this year it looks like I will have my stash at a size to cover all my other expenses.  So within the next year all of my savings will be going to fund my future healthcare.  It really bugs me that I'm working to save for some expense that I can't more accurately estimate.  Yes, I'm a control freak.

[radram]

All you can do is approximate and estimate.

For future care, I am estimating a 15% increase in costs post ACA. If it gets even more expensive, I will cut costs. If we become uninsurable, we will either move to Massachusetts, another country, or we will prepare to shield our fortune behind trusts and off shore accounts and use a combination of uninsured cash payments for regular care and bankruptcy as catastrophic "insurance".

[Gimesalot]

We are really close to our number and are planning on pulling the plug in early 2018.  Since we will be in the states for about 4 months and then between Canada and the states for about 5 months, we will need some insurance.  Originally, we were expecting to get a plan through the ACA for about $200 per person per month.  Now that it looks like that might not be an option, we are calculating that we will need about $1000 per person per month. 

Healthcare costs are the number 1 reason that we are planing on never living in the states after we FIRE.

[Trifle]

All you can do is approximate and estimate.

For future care, I am estimating a 15% increase in costs post ACA. If it gets even more expensive, I will cut costs. If we become uninsurable, we will either move to Massachusetts, another country, or we will prepare to shield our fortune behind trusts and off shore accounts and use a combination of uninsured cash payments for regular care and bankruptcy as catastrophic "insurance".

Can you explain your comment about Massachusetts to us?  Thanks!

[jim555]

Magic 8 ball is how you estimate this.

[Trifle]

Ah!  never mind!  I see there is another thread about Massachusetts insurance. 

[radram]

Magic 8 ball is how you estimate this.

Pretty much yes. When you have an upcoming cost, and you have no idea what it will be, all you can do is use your best guess, and then be flexible and prepare to adjust.

Why 15%?
I believe healthcare will cost my family more after ACA, and I believe most of america can not afford much more. If there are 50% increases, people will go without. I do not think the american people will be comfortable with that and things would then change, again.

I see you found out why I said Massachusetts. EDIT: Sorry, that wasn't you.

Thank you for your posts.