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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Ask a Mustachian => Topic started by: FIRE_HELP! on July 02, 2014, 03:01:21 AM

Title: Reason to worry? (Or at least dramatically lower future investment return exp?)
Post by: FIRE_HELP! on July 02, 2014, 03:01:21 AM

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/-it-looks-like-a-peak---robert-shiller-s-cape-is-waving-the-caution-flag-004753218.html

Title: Re: Reason to worry? (Or at least dramatically lower future investment return exp?)
Post by: surfhb on July 02, 2014, 03:25:59 AM

Can't worry about things you can't control.   Bozos like this have been predicting crashes and peaks for years....I don't care if he is a Nobel prize recipient. :)    Keep saving and investing.....if you lose it all in the impeding doom of a total economic implosion...at least you tried right?!  :).

Stockpile some booze and ammo just in case though :)

Title: Re: Reason to worry? (Or at least dramatically lower future investment return exp?)
Post by: pom on July 02, 2014, 03:37:13 AM

I don't worry either, I focus on passive income instead of wealth and that is much less volatile.

And I echo surfhb that over my life I have seen so many "this is the top" and "this is the bottom" that I mostly ignore it and keep on buying income producing assets.

And if it's the end, I've got plenty booze but no ammo. Anyway not sure I could shoot straight after all the booze.

Title: Re: Reason to worry? (Or at least dramatically lower future investment return exp?)
Post by: warfreak2 on July 02, 2014, 04:08:49 AM

There's two ways for price-to-earnings ratios to come back down. The price could come down (bad for the investor), or earnings could go up (good for the investor), and I don't see any particular reason to predict one or the other.

Title: Re: Reason to worry? (Or at least dramatically lower future investment return exp?)
Post by: Scandium on July 02, 2014, 07:16:29 AM

I guess this might fit in here, rather than starting another thread:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/07/01/these-23-charts-prove-that-stocks-are-heading-for-a-devastating-crash/

Makes some compelling points, but not enough for me to change anything. (and how should I change? Stop investing for 1, 4, 7 years? Only buy foreign stock? Which ones? ..)

Title: Re: Reason to worry? (Or at least dramatically lower future investment return exp?)
Post by: PloddingInsight on July 02, 2014, 07:19:00 AM

Quote from: warfreak2 on July 02, 2014, 04:08:49 AM

There's two ways for price-to-earnings ratios to come back down. The price could come down (bad for the investor), or earnings could go up (good for the investor), and I don't see any particular reason to predict one or the other.

Right.  Even more to the point:  P/E goes up because there is a general expectation that earnings will rise.