Author Topic: reality vs predictions  (Read 2805 times)

zedpol

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reality vs predictions
« on: October 22, 2014, 09:37:10 AM »
Just curious to hear from those of you have been doing this for a few years.  How close or far were your net worth models to reality?  Did you come out ahead of the game or behind?

Thanks,
Z

MDM

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Re: reality vs predictions
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 12:36:34 PM »
Itís Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future

Never did project future net worth while working.  Just saved a bunch, invested, and let it ride up and down with the market.

Approaching and now into retirement, projections have been (we hope) based on conservative assumptions, and so far reality has been better than assumptions.  But that's because so far reality has been better than average....

Zikoris

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Re: reality vs predictions
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 02:35:40 PM »
I've always came out better than my predictions. Just when we think our expenses have bottomed out, we manage to shave off another chunk of them and further increase our savings rate.

Gone Fishing

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Re: reality vs predictions
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 02:49:26 PM »
We are way over the original projections which didn't include any promotions or raises over inflation.  However, as we get closer to FIRE, it is actually harder to make predictions due to large market swings in the portfolio.  You can save $5k in a month and have your net worth decrease $50k, just the way that it goes.   

Bateaux

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Re: reality vs predictions
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2014, 12:34:19 PM »
Ahead in some ways and behind in others.  I lost my pension, never expected that, would have paid out 60k annually till death.   It was going insolvent but, was paid 165k cash before it went under so not a total loss.  My 401k is about where I'd planned to be maybe a little behind.  Same with Roth IRA little behind as well.  Real estate far higher in value than I'd ever dreamed possible.  People are getting f#cked on real estate these days, no wonder young people aren't signing up for home ownership.  Mine was super cheap and led me to debt freedom early.  Own a second home bought almost as cheap, worth double now.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2014, 12:36:47 PM by Bateauxdriver »

dragoncar

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Re: reality vs predictions
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2014, 06:48:31 PM »
We are way over the original projections which didn't include any promotions or raises over inflation.  However, as we get closer to FIRE, it is actually harder to make predictions due to large market swings in the portfolio.  You can save $5k in a month and have your net worth decrease $50k, just the way that it goes.

Exactly, I'm on track for my spending and savings predictions, but the market will do what it wants