I don't use healthcare.gov because my state has its own exchange. But based on how my state exchange works and my understanding of the ACA in general, I'm fairly confident that the reason it's asking you for estimated income is so it can calculate APTC. So if you're OK foregoing APTC, I think it would be fine to choose that option.
Well, except for CSRs. If you plan to get a Silver plan and CSRs would be valuable to you, the only way to get them is to provide an estimated income to the marketplace when choosing a plan.
The proper way to determine whether or not and how much of an estimated payment to send in is done with estimated tax payment calculations. A good place to start is at the IRS web page here:
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/estimated-taxesEspecially the sections on who must pay estimated taxes and how to figure estimated taxes.
If you're getting an additional PTC on Form 8962 when you do a pro forma estimate of your 2021 taxes, that would become a refundable credit and is essentially treated as an additional tax payment. It would go on line 11b of the Form 1040-ES worksheet.
It is good to make estimated tax payments if you would otherwise owe an underpayment penalty. If you elect to make an estimated payment, it would be a 4th quarter payment and would be due by 1/18/2022.