I need some help thinking through what I should do with my house. I moved out two years ago with the assumption that I was going to move back but that is looking very unlikely. We have renters but the rent - maintenance - taxes doesn't cover our mortgage. Here are the numbers:

According to Zillow the property is worth $735,000

I have a 20 year mortgage at 4.125% with $345,222 left to pay.

We currently pay $3,054 per month for our mortgage payment. It's currently split between $1,277 for principal, $1,191 for interest and $586 for escrow. We receive $2,725 per month in rental income ($2,950 - $225 management fee). On which we pay a 48% marginal tax rate, therefore our net income on the house is $17,002. We pay on average $145 per month for the gardner.

Per year we pay $38,391 to keep our house and receive $17,002 in net income while the mortgage principal is paid down by $15,325, therefore it costs us $6,063 per year to keep the house. Zillow expects our house to increase in value by $35,000 during that year so assuming they are correct (which is a big assumption, I know), if we keep our house another year we should increase our net worth by an estimated $29,000.

The house is in a great neighborhood. Amazon HQ is 5 minutes to the south, a big Google office is 5 minutes to the north, and Expedia's 1000+ employees are just about to move into a new building 5 minutes to the west. I expect the value of the property to continue increase in the next few years.

**Option 1: Keep as is**

It's a drain on my current cash flow but something I can handle. The only thing I'm worried about is post-FIRE it won't be so easy to handle.

**Option 2: Sell**

If I see I will need to pay the 6% stupid real estate agent fees + 1.78% city fees which means it will cost me $57,000 and I will net $333,000 from the sale.

**Option 3: Refinance to reduce cash flow drain**

At 30 year at 3.92% will mean a $505.18 towards the principal, $1,129.18 for interest, and $586 for escrow = $2220. Therefore our yearly expenses will be $28,380. With the same yearly net income of $17,002 it will cost us $11,378 in negative cash flow while paying down our mortgage by $6,062. Therefore it costs us $5,316 per year to keep the house.

Option 3 gives me an extra $10,000 a year to invest in other stuff but it costs me an extra 15 years of paying for the house.

Here's where I'm not sure how to do a comparison calculation. I think what I'm comparing is 30 years of an extra $10,000 to invest vs investing nothing extra for the first 15 years but then being able to invest my whole mortgage payment of $2,468 each month after that.

If that's what I'm comparing I get very similar numbers: At a 5% return I get $693,275 vs $659,671.

So it appears that if what I care about is 30 years from now, both choices are essentially equal.

But I would like to retire some time in the next 5-10 years, so that time horizon is more important. How should I think about this problem with that perspective?