Author Topic: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?  (Read 3383 times)

mansley19

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Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« on: April 11, 2018, 11:37:05 AM »
Straight to the point: do you buy a house when there is a housing shortage?  House prices are skyrocketing, houses sell over asking price 4 hours after they are listed, and there’s that “recession coming.”

More about my life below:

Okay, so I'm 27, have worked hard to pay off all student loans and medical loans even while on disability, currently earn only $60,000, and have cobbled together about $12,000 between "emergency fund" money,  revolving-pay-the-rent money, a small Vanguard fund, and from cashing out some dumbass permanent insurance I was tricked into buying when my health was really poor and my wits compromised.  I also have about 57K in my 401K.  I was never maxing it out.  I just started to max it, but then decided NOT to, to allow that $1400 per month to flow into my future down payment instead of the 401K. 

I've cleaned up my spending, whittled everything down as low as it can go, except that big ol' rent payment each month.  So, I buy a house right?  Well.  I don't know.  I LOVE my 2 bedroom $900 townhome 20 minutes away from work.  (I can't move much closer to work, I work in a manufacturing site, which is in an industrial area surrounded by places I wouldn't ever feel safe in.)  And I don’t want to switch my work.  Their benefits are crazy good (like cheap health insurance, a 6% full company match in a 401K and 4 weeks paid vacation).  So I drive my 1999 110,000 miler Accura to work and feel good about that. 

So back to that house: I live in Indianapolis, where the housing market is super tight.  There are lots of cute little homes I'd be okay living in for $150,000, and complete junk crack house duplexes for $60,000.  The trouble is, there are not enough "good" homes for all the people in city.  Every day, more "luxurious" apartment buildings are build downtown, $2000 a month for a studio!  They remain largely unfilled as the people who could afford them, (young professional yahoos) are looking for a home to start their family outside of downtown. 

I’m a handy lady and fixer-uppers don’t scare me.   But there aren’t any in the good neighborhoods!  So do I buy a “brand-new,” “perfect” house valued at $150,000, pay $160,000 for it,  and struggle to pay the $1400 a month in “rent” (my mortgage) with the help of a “roommate” (my girlfriend).  Or do I buy a crack-house, live in it for a scary, stressful, year playing “Firework or Gun Shot?”, clinging to the hope that I can rent it out after the year is up and become a Slum Lord Millionaire?  Or, do I stay in my wonderful, perfect apartment with the lake that I keep getting yelled at for swimming in, and wait until the housing shortage fixes itself?  (It’s not going to fix itself for several years, there are too many young 27 year-old yahoos buying dreams of Flowery Pillowcases and Homes For Their Children who will pay stupid money to achieve that Dream, damn the expense.)

I just want a house, well below or within my means that I can later rent out so I can retire around the same time all the yahoos are getting divorced! 

ooeei

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2018, 11:44:00 AM »
http://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/05/29/why-your-house-is-a-terrible-investment/

What's wrong with keeping on renting? If you think you'll save money by buying a house, you may be surprised. NYTimes has a good buy vs rent calculator you can look up, but even that is approximate.

Just remember, of all of the expenses that come along with buying a house, only mortgage principle paid is money you eventually get back. For the first 5-10 years that number is very low compared to interest payments, maintenance, taxes, and even utilities. If the house appreciates you'll do pretty well, but you risk it depreciating just as much. It also ties you to one specific area, limiting your career options.

APBioSpartan

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2018, 12:08:01 PM »
I'm in a similar situation, except housing in my area is 3x the price.  Following

robartsd

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2018, 12:11:40 PM »
Generally the time to buy things is when supply is higher than demand. Buying when demand outstrips supply generally leads to buying at high prices. If you're happy with your $900/mo apartment why buy a house at premium now?

Basenji

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2018, 12:37:06 PM »
Not sure about your city, but it's a funny thing about "bad neighborhoods." In DC, what were unlivable scary places  are now the trendiest neighborhoods. It takes a few years, but it happens.

You still have time to sit back and see how the housing situation develops in your area. You should probably be maxing out your pre-tax 401k. Where are you putting that downpayment money?

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rent-vs-buy-calculator/

affordablehousing

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2018, 01:09:18 PM »
Also look at the housing starts. Right now, interior cities are getting a lot of attention as the coasts fill up and get expensive. But in addition to housing starts, pipeline and production, are there any constraints vis a vis zoning, politics, land area, pollution impacts that would inhibit the necessary units to catch up to housing need? In some markets there are pretty embedded reasons why the housing shortage will remain the status quo. Or.... people can just live in micro units or slide out drawers a la Seinfeld.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2018, 02:21:27 PM »
Can you verbalize what is motivating you to buy a house?  Is there something driving you toward that decision?  Is there some element of FOMO since everybody else seems to be buying houses?

Let's run some numbers:  A $120k 30-year mortgage on a $150k house is about $600/mo.  At first, only $165/mo of that is principal.  Let's assume property taxes are $125/mo, and let's say insurance is $50/mo.  So the money you spend each month without increasing your net worth is (600-165) + 125+50 = $610.  Compared to the $900 you're spending now, it's a good few hundred bucks less.  But there's maintenance, too.  We budget about $100-150/mo towards home maintenance, and that's with me DIYing everything.

Why do you need to wait a year before renting out a house that you might buy?

robartsd

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2018, 02:47:02 PM »
Why do you need to wait a year before renting out a house that you might buy?
I think that is to qualify as a primary residence on the loan instead of seeking a loan for an "investment property".

Right now OP could put 5% down on a 160k house and might be able to keep PITI somewhat close to current $900/mo rent. Between interest and maintenance the house would not be adding to net worth without appreciation, but the market is already hot so in my opinion buying would be a RE market timing play.


frugaliknowit

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Re: Buy a House During a Housing Shortage?
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2018, 08:51:46 AM »
Not sure why your plan is to buy, live in for 1 year, then rent out?  Have you calculated what kind of return that might bring?  Is it compelling, especially compared to a portfolio of equities?  After you put it up for rent, what are you going to live in (go look for another property)?

Nothing wrong with just renting.  Over long periods of time, the less square footage you live in (via purchase or rental), the more money available for investment...