Math is hard. Are we going to be ok?

[hoyahoyasaxa]

My wife and I have been eager for some time to move up to where her whole family lives.  This past weekend, serendipity seemed to strike when a lovely little home (which coincidentally happens to be the first house that my wife lived in as a baby) came on the market in our price range.  It's listed at $279k, but the current buyer purchased it for $210k back in 2011.  Our realtor believes that it will sell for ~$250k and that we should offer $235k to start.

We currently have $83k in cash (CDs, savings and checking), and $57k in investments (Roth IRAs, LendingClub and a 403b).  We have no debt.

Our current take home pay is ~$5600 per month.  We are expecting our first baby in two months and our take home pay will increase to $6654 if we both keep working due to the extra allowances on our W4s.  I should note that my job is not secure (secure company, but very erratic, unpredictable boss) and if we lost my income, we would be living on my wife's income which would be ~$2700 if she was the sole breadwinner (I believe I would get about $1500 take home from unemployment for six months).

Our usual monthly expenses are about $3500 including a rent payment of $1550.  If we purchase this home, the total monthly cost including principal, interest, property taxes and insurance would be about $1750.  And travel expenses would increase by $300 per person (monthly NJ transit passes).

If we put down 20% on a $250k property, we would have $33k left in cash.  I don't know what the closing costs are, but if they are the usual 2-5%, that would be between $5k and $12,500 which would drop our emergency fund to between $21k and $28k.

Am I forgetting anything?  Does this look doable?

[Cheddar Stacker]

Looks do-able to me.

If you lose your job your monthly take home drops to $4,200 ($2,700 + 1,500).

New expenses are $4,300 (3,500 + 300 + 300 + 200 housing increase) and they will drop by $300 month (transit pass) if you stop working. It won't be easy at that point, but you'll still have plenty of savings and you can find another job to replace the $1,500 unemployment income.

The only thing you're forgetting is that babies can (don't have to) cost a lot of money. If you buy the house, don't buy a bunch of baby crap. You can't afford both right now, and you definitely can't afford the expensive baby crap if you don't have a job.

Have you factored daycare costs into your monthly expenses, or do you have a sweet family hookup since you're moving near her family?

[matchewed]

If you're comfortable with your cost of living increase, the fact that your job is shaky, and how this affects any other financial goals then yes it is doable. If I were in your shoes I may not be personally be comfortable with all three things happening at the same time, I'd look into adjusting some of those factors; look for a job closer to where you want to move, reducing your expenses...etc., before or during the move.

[warfreak2]

How long is the mortgage? Effectively you'd be paying an extra $800 per month, in order to eventually own a house, so it matters how many months you're paying that for.

It looks like you didn't include a figure for maintenance; how much work is the house going to require in the long term, which would otherwise be paid by a landlord? Also consider any difference in your bills due to the house being bigger or less insulated.

Any possibility of skipping the transit passes? Would a bike work for either or both of you? Or a nearer job which could pay up to $300 less than your current job per month.

One more consideration is that if you have a mortgage, you can probably get a low-rate line of credit on the house. In that case you don't need to keep so much cash for emergencies ($83k is a lot! what kind of emergencies are you anticipating?), which means more in your investments, which means more income from your investments.

[AlanStache]

Is this house the right house and not just an emotional attachment for your wife?  Is the commute longer or just more expensive?  You are not clear on the utilities, any clue how they would be more expensive?

Does the house need any work?

After buying I learned that the home inspector works for the bank, you may pay him but he does not work for you.  I HIGHLY recommend if this if your first home to get some friends or family that have worked on there own home to spend a satruday crawling all over this new place, attic-crawl space-inspection scope behind things-look everywhere.  How old is the water heater/furnace/ac.  Will it need new insulation?  Get people who 'work for you' to give you a list of everything that you will have to fix in the next five years.

[BigRed]

How will your commute times change.  Having a baby and increasing the time for your commute are not things you want to do at the same time.  This isn't a monetary factor, it's a quality of life factor, but it is very important.

[hoyahoyasaxa]

Thanks for your responses so far.  I agree that an increasing commute is not ideal.  However, I feel that this is outweighed by the fact that we will have a built in support system with literally more than 30 of my wife's uncles, aunts and cousins within a 10 minute drive.  We love them and want to be around them.  We are trying to move from Queens to a suburb of NYC approx. 25 miles north of the city.  The increased cost in transportation is due to monthly NJ transit passes.

@BigRed:  Our current commute time each way is about 50 minutes for each of us.  This will likely increase to about 1 hr/15 minutes using NJ Transit.

@AlanStache: Commute is both longer and more expensive.  However, see my note above about our reasons for doing it.  We are not yet clear on the utilities.  It is a small house - 868 sq. ft. so utilities hopefully would be minimal.  The house did not seem to need much work aside from some painting.  The offer will be contingent on an inspection so we will get to see any issues that may arise.  I'll take your advice on getting family/friends involved.  My mother-in-law happens to be the handyman of the family AND lived in this house for three years so I would trust her.

@warfreak2: It's a 30-year fixed mortgage.  I would love to work closer to home as would my wife.  Jobs just happen to be in much lower volume in this area than in Manhattan.  Can you explain a little more regarding the low-rate of credit on the house and not needing more cash for emergencies?  The only reason we had a lot of cash was because we were saving for a home down payment and it was short-term so I didn't want to put it in the market.  One of the things that worries me is that we're going to have a low emergency fund (the realtor actually just mentioned that closing costs will be $19k, because half of it will be our up-front payment for the first year's property taxes, which would leave us with about $14k in our savings account).

@CheddarStacker: Thank you, I really appreciated your response.  In terms of the "sweet family hookup," my mother-in-law would watch the baby twice a week, I believe.  We have been looking at daycare options in our current neighborhood in Queens right now (which run from $800-$1200 a month for full-time care).  If we make the move, I don't anticipate the costs to be more expensive than a neighborhood that is literally 4 miles outside of Manhattan.

[Another Reader]

A new baby and a new house with a primary job that is not secure?  I would not do that under any circumstances.

If you really want to live up there, rent for awhile and see how you like the commute and if having family nearby really helps.  Renting should be significantly cheaper and you need to sort out the post-baby employment picture before you take on more responsibility.   If things do not work out as planned, it's a lot easier to get out of a rental.

[warfreak2]

This MMM post describes the line-of-credit alternative to emergency cash.

If it costs you $800 more per month, but you own the house after 30 years, your choice is practically: do you want to spend 30*12*$800 = $288,000 over 30 years, on top of your current living expenses, in order to own this house? In the long run you will pay more than the value of the house plus what you already pay for rent.

A 30-year mortgage would already be a deal-breaker for me. Even a low interest rate like 3%, over 30 years, is more expensive in total than a 9% interest rate over 10 years. I just wouldn't want to pay that much on pure interest.

[the fixer]

This looks like a bad deal to me. Even before you consider down payment, closing costs, and maintenance, your costs of owning this house and living in it would exceed your cost of renting now (including the $300/month transit passes). Since you're presumably living in a higher cost-of-living area now, you're kinda comparing apples and oranges here: renting in an expensive area versus buying in a cheaper area. Have you considered renting in that same cheaper area? You wouldn't have the financial commitments that come with home ownership, and I'd bet that renting out there is even cheaper.

Personally I still wouldn't want to move 25 miles away from my job. I've done commutes like that before, both by car and by transit, and they're awful. It's like having to "work" an extra hour a day without pay, leaving you less free time to spend with your family. Unless you plan on driving out to see your wife's family 5 days/week, it's more time-efficient for you to live close to your work.

[Cheddar Stacker]

Our current take home pay is ~$5600 per month.  We are expecting our first baby in two months and our take home pay will increase to $6654 if we both keep working due to the extra allowances on our W4s. 

I'm just wondering how you came to expect an extra $12k a year in your paycheck because of having a kid. Assuming you live in the US you're probably looking at about $3000/year in tax benefits at best, and that's including the Child Care Credit for daycare

Good point, I didn't give that much thought when OP said it. However, changing your allowances on the W-4 does have an immediate impact since it only affects your withholdings. Maybe they are getting a huge refund now, and after the changes they will not? Maybe it will affect state and city taxes? Maybe the increase also includes a pay raise?

[AlanStache]

Locking yourself into a long commute can really suck.  Then try selling the move away from family 'just' to commute less.

[happy]

Its doable but I think  the net result of the whole idea is that you are making things tougher, not easier.  I get the pull to be closer to family with a new baby, but unless your extended family will actually be helping you out quite a lot, its making it harder not easier.

To be clear 2 parents working fulltime and a new baby = hard. Both with a 50min commute each way = harder. Both with 1.15 min commute each way = even harder ... umm, and when is the babe going to see its parents? If the extended family were going to take on all the childcare then this could work IMO. If one of you - preferably the lowest income earner worked part-time and the relatives did the childcare for that time, then I think that is also workable. Or if you worked different hours to each other.

You've been saving about 2k a month ( about 40%) if I got your data correct? So $800 extra on mortgage + commute. Plus childcare costs of ?800 or 1000?..how much exactly? You've pretty well spent it all except for the tax break you get for continuing work (another 1k/month if thats correct).

In answer to your question: Life is hard. But its doable. But not that pleasant.
Your savings rate indicates you still have more mustachly ways to learn. The more you learn the easier it gets.
Think about the maths of one part-timer worker/free childcare vs 2 full timers and childcare.
In your shoes I think I would consider renting closer to the relatives first, and try it out.

[Workinghard]

I really think the commute, 21/2 hours every day, would get old fast. Years ago when I was pregnant, we had a 2hr commute. After the baby was born, neither one of us wanted to be that far away. It just wasn't worth it, even though we worked opposite days/shifts to avoid daycare.

[MayDay]

To be honest, I think it sounds like a terrible idea.

Sure you could swing it financially, but your commute is going to suck.  I think you will see less extra money in your paycheck than you are thinking, and I think 3 days a week childcare will be wayyyyyyy more expensive than you are predicting and/or impossible to find.  And if you think a 1 hr 15 minute commute would suck now, multiply that by a million with a baby at home.  Imagine getting the call that your kid is barfing/spiked a fever/etc at daycare, and it takes you over an hour to get there.  Imagine days with bad weather.  Etc, etc, etc.  I can see it working if you both have flexible jobs, the ability to work from home sometimes and the ability to flex schedules.  But even then it would suck.  If you are seeing childcare costs in the 800-1200$ range, I would jump on that quick.  From what I know of NJ, I would expect to pay 1500-2000 a month for full time infant care, with no PT spots available.  I don't know a lot, just a few friends, so obviously you need to check that out for yourselves.

I would rent in the area and see if you can hack the commute.  Then reassess after a year.  You aren't really going to know how helpful all that family is until the baby gets here and reality hits.  We moved to be near my in-laws (well, really for a job, but being near them was a supposed side benefit), who had spent the last 7 years whining about how far away we lived and they never got to see the kids.  Ends up they don't have anything more to do with our kids than when we lived a plane ride away.  We have seen them for 2 full days since September.  Average that out and we probably actually see them less than when they "had" to come visit for a week at a time (and they are retired!).  So.  Just saying.

[happy]

+1 to MayDay , who spelled out more explicitly what I would worry about.

[Thegoblinchief]

Unless it was 5 days/week free child care, I wouldn't do it. If you really want to move closer, move the jobs closer FIRST.

A long commute with your first newborn sucks. We had 1 car, 50 min from apt to my wife's work, 20 more to grandmas for daycare, then another 20 to my school and work. Miserable. I'd never willingly choose a commute like that.

[foobar]

Paying off the mortgage early save you form paying interest but  you suffer opportunity costs. With <4% those opportunity costs are greater than the interest savings.

I don't know where the 800/month came from. I got 500 (1750 mortgage-1550 rent+300 for travel). But real kicker is that costs aren't constant. That rent is going up 3 or 4%/yr for the next 30 years. For the ownership case, the property tax will go up 3or4% but the mortgage will remain fixed. Their will be a transition point in 7 to 10 year where owning is cheaper.  And of course in 30 years that house will be work 2x as much.  They might end up paying 500k or so in payments but they are likely to have an asset worth about that much so the cost of buying again is strictly opportunity cost. Now assuming your going to spend 15+ years in a house is always being a bit optmistic.


The real reason to buy this house is not the cost. Its that commute......

This MMM post describes the line-of-credit alternative to emergency cash.

If it costs you $800 more per month, but you own the house after 30 years, your choice is practically: do you want to spend 30*12*$800 = $288,000 over 30 years, on top of your current living expenses, in order to own this house? In the long run you will pay more than the value of the house plus what you already pay for rent.

A 30-year mortgage would already be a deal-breaker for me. Even a low interest rate like 3%, over 30 years, is more expensive in total than a 9% interest rate over 10 years. I just wouldn't want to pay that much on pure interest.

[Cheddar Stacker]

I don't know where the 800/month came from. I got 500 (1750 mortgage-1550 rent+300 for travel).

It was $300/month/person for the commute. All very good points foobar.

[foobar]

Gotcha. I guess you could figure out what % of the mortgage is principle and take it out, through in potential  tax savings and so on) but at the end of the money isn't the big issue here. The numbers are going to be pretty close. It is do you want to spend another 50/mins on a train for the next 20 years. I doubt it. Then the question is can you find jobs closer the house. who knows. Of course I hate commuting.

 I would also think about if your a 1 and doner or if kid 2 is a possibility. 4 people might get to be a tight squeeze and what you absolutely don't want to do is to buy a house and 5 years later want to buy another one. It might work out but it might also leave you in a bad spot.



And then at the end of the day, you do whatever your wife wants:)

I don't know where the 800/month came from. I got 500 (1750 mortgage-1550 rent+300 for travel).

It was $300/month/person for the commute. All very good points foobar.

[warfreak2]

When I switch from renting to owning, I don't want to be paying more than the price of the house plus what it costs to rent. I could just rent for 30 years and then pay cash, and it would end up cheaper. Just saying. I realise the price of the house will likely be inflated at the end of the mortgage, and so would my rent costs, but... so would my savings. There's also the bit where if you're renting, you can move much easier if you want/have to, and you aren't paying for the maintenance.

30 year mortgages. I thought one of the benefits of mustachianism was that you can fund your own lifestyle, so you don't need to borrow money that will take 30 years for you to pay back.

[hoyahoyasaxa]

I did the w4 again to see what I might have been doing wrong as many on here thought I was being optimistic in my additional take home pay and you were right.  The current take home pay included deductions for healthcare which the "future" take home pay calculation did not.  It looks like we'd be closer to $6000 take home pay per month if we both continued working and had a dependent.

Now for the other kick in the pants.  The travel costs I estimated were also wrong after I researched further.  A monthly NJ Transit pass would be $353 per person, not to mention the $112 per person monthly NYC subway pass for a grand total of $930 per month combined.  Right now, we pay about $118 combined per month considering we bike to work when the weather's nice.

The breakdown I see it now (and please someone correct me again if they see something not adding up):

$5990 take home pay
-$1750 mortgage/property tax
-$930 transportation
I suppose the other things we'd  have to figure out to see if this would work would be a) what we would actually be paying in daycare costs and b) what, if any, additional cost saving we would be enjoying living outside of NYC.

[foobar]

You are going to have to work really hard to make the numbers favor renting over 30 years. The house price is just too close to the rental. You would need very conservative rental increases, minimal house appreciation, low inflation (think about what a decade of 6% inflation would do to your savings and rent versus your mortgage payment) and outlandish market returns. Change that number to 5 and you can pretty much switch the argument around and things would have to work out in order to make buying make sense.

This really isn't a money issue though. It is a lifestyle one. Is living close to family worth that time spent commuting. And then is that the right house for you.

When I switch from renting to owning, I don't want to be paying more than the price of the house plus what it costs to rent. I could just rent for 30 years and then pay cash, and it would end up cheaper. Just saying. I realise the price of the house will likely be inflated at the end of the mortgage, and so would my rent costs, but... so would my savings. There's also the bit where if you're renting, you can move much easier if you want/have to, and you aren't paying for the maintenance.

30 year mortgages. I thought one of the benefits of mustachianism was that you can fund your own lifestyle, so you don't need to borrow money that will take 30 years for you to pay back.

[arebelspy]

Every time I read the title of this thread I picture this:

[AlanStache]

^yep.  had to work hard in my head to get past that and focus on the real topic.

[Mister Fancypants]

@hoyahoyasaxa - A couple of things to consider, first I used to live in an outer boro and work in Manhattan and now I live in a NY suburb (not NJ) and commute to Manhattan, so I know where you are coming from :)

There is a huge quality of life difference living in the burbs near family having property than living in the city, especially when raising a family, we have small children and both of our parents and siblings are within 10 minutes of us, it makes a huge difference, that might not be a financial reason to move but it is something to consider which is clearly one of your reasons and must be given enough weight regardless of what everyone tells you about the finances.

You are comparing a 50 minutes commute to an 75 minute commute, to anyone who commutes to NYC the difference in negligible (unfortunately, rule of thumb here is time is only measured once you hit the hour mark  :P ) The commute cost is another factor, make sure you look into your companies (and your wife's) commuter benefits program up $130 towards transit and $245 for parking can be paid for pretax out of your paycheck per month per person.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employer_transportation_benefits_in_the_United_States

You are looking to move to form NY and NYC to NJ, so I know you did a revised W-4, which is your federal income taxes, did you adjust your state income taxes as well? In NYS you are in the 6.45% tax bracket, in NJ you be in the 5.5% tax bracket at most possibly the 3.5% tax bracket. NYC also charges you another ~3.5% in income tax, so by moving from NYC to NJ your net pay increase by a minimum of 4.5% and up 6.5% just in state and city tax reductions, not counting anything to do with owning or renting, NJ is just cheaper in that regard. But to counter that point as another poster mentioned earlier you won't get as good ethnic groceries and day care costs will likely be higher in NJ than in Queens and one would hope with the higher cost would come with more reliability, but do your due diligence on that one.

Now based on your take home pay my guess is you currently take the standard deduction or just pay enough in state income taxes to itemize but barely, with mortgage interest, property taxes and state income taxes you will definitely be taking the itemized deduction, I would re-analyze your take home pay with the state income tax changes and the mortgage interest and property taxes and remember you might be doubling up property taxes this year as you are prepaying which might be paying back the seller (prorated for taxes they just paid in January/Sept) and next years might be due in Sept but still paid by in this year. So recalculate both you federal and state withholdings for all state income taxes you will have withheld, property taxes you will pay and mortgage interest. Also remember the 3 personal deductions and any other credits you know you are eligible for.

You are also eligible for Dependent Day Care Flexible Spending (FSA) for up to $5,000 for child care if both you and your spouse work which is pretax this is like a Healthcare FSA but used for daycare costs, (contribute to this too if you are not, especially if you are having a child you are going to use that one up, can max out at $2500).

You have a lot of things changing, switching states and dropping city taxes, adding a dependent, changing how you get to work and buying a house, that is a huge amount of data to input and there are things that are going to be missing in this forum dialog, I would suggest you seek out a local accountant and run the numbers to get solid answers to find out what it will actually cost you.

There are going to be very many varying opinions on this board, some people are going to be strongly for this others against it, and clearly there is others things at play besides finances, a lot people who don't live near NYC will be biased one way and those of us who have lived and breathed the air here will be biased another way.

Good luck, I hope I gave you something to think about,
-Mister FancyPants

[soccerluvof4]

The negatives out way the benefits. I agree with new born on the way, job isn't stable. I'd be patient and improve my position before a change. Doable yes. People can talk themselves into or out of anything. Make an unemotional list of pros and cons and decide that way only.

[Thegoblinchief]

The negatives out way the benefits. I agree with new born on the way, job isn't stable. I'd be patient and improve my position before a change. Doable yes. People can talk themselves into or out of anything. Make an unemotional list of pros and cons and decide that way only.

Great advice. Make sure to put in the CON side that moving is one more change added to a LOT of change. Being new parents is a big adjustment. I don't think I'd willingly want to learn a whole new neighborhood/commute/shopping routine.