There are several situations where a Roth makes a lot more sense:
3) you somehow calculate that your spending (and correspondingly, your income and therefore tax rate) in retirement will be higher than while employed
This is us. I have spent 30+ years optimizing our savings, and contributing to retirement. When I retire, I will have a pension that replaces ~ 85% of my salary. However, those tools that I've used to lower my taxable income will no longer be available to me:
- No pension contribution.
- No 403(b)/457 contribution.
- No pre-tax health premium
- No pre-tax LT/ST Disability, parking, FSA accounts.
So my taxes will go UP in retirement. Add to that calculation the current plan that US tax rates are set to revert to the old brackets in 2026....and yep, conversions look pretty smart to us - especially since I can pay the taxes - as we convert - from my W-2 job, via overwithholding.
This year we plan to convert ~ $28k in DH's SEP-IRA to Roth. Next year, we'll take 50% of the remainder and convert. And in 2025, the last of it will be converted.
I have also changed my pre-tax contributions into a 457 plan into the NEWLY available Roth 457. I am hoping to get another $40k or so into Roth accounts for me between now and retirement in late 2025.
So yes - there absolutely are circumstances where tax rates and amounts can be higher in retirement. I encourage you to do an analysis given your current income, and the estimated income in retirement, WITHOUT all of the tax shelters we are all so fond of....