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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Ask a Mustachian => Topic started by: ender on May 01, 2019, 08:21:56 AM

Title: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: ender on May 01, 2019, 08:21:56 AM
I've seen a lot of online Social Security calculators.

Without fail, they work on the "work until you start taking Social Security" paradigm. Which makes them very difficult to use for planning on working say from 21-40 and then taking SS at 67.

Is there one somewhere which works for these types of situations?
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: kingxiaodi on May 01, 2019, 08:32:26 AM
I've seen a lot of online Social Security calculators.

Without fail, they work on the "work until you start taking Social Security" paradigm. Which makes them very difficult to use for planning on working say from 21-40 and then taking SS at 67.

Is there one somewhere which works for these types of situations?

Looks like there's a sheet named "SocialSecurity" in the MDM's Case Study Spreadsheet (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B45krBaG0b6KTWZDeXEySVBHVXc/view) (thread here (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/how-to-write-a-'case-study'-topic/msg274228/#msg274228))

If you don't like that option, would it be too difficult to build your own?

Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on May 01, 2019, 08:32:43 AM
The Social Security Administration's calculator lets you play around with the date you stop working. While working till 62, 67, or 70 is assumed for the first round, once you get the results you can click on the "Add a New Estimate" button to change the date you stop working. They state that "If you select an age prior to 62, we will estimate your benefits starting at age 62" so it won't do the delay collecting till 67 calculation, but estimating about 40% higher than the age 62 number is a good guess for the age 67 number. Estimating 80% higher is a good estimate for the age 70 number.
https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html (https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/estimator.html)
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: MDM on May 01, 2019, 08:00:46 PM
A couple of spreadsheets and a web tool that work well for calculating an individual's benefit:
 - The 'SocialSecurity' tab of the case study spreadsheet (http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/case-study-spreadsheet-updates/).
 - The Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost) - Bogleheads.org (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=231913).
 - Social Security Calculator (https://socialsecurity.tools/)

A web tool that evaluates SS benefit start dates for a couple:
Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security Calculator (https://opensocialsecurity.com/)
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: seattlecyclone on May 01, 2019, 11:29:31 PM
There's also this worksheet (https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf) from the Social Security Administration. You can get the formula from there and make your own spreadsheets as your heart desires.
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: FIREstache on May 02, 2019, 04:56:52 AM
I use the downloadable social security calculator from ssa.gov, which let you enter your SS wages each year and select when you want to start pulling benefits, unlike the web based ones there.  It is more complicated to use, though.
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: nereo on May 02, 2019, 06:06:28 PM
Good resources shared by others.

One aspect I've found enlightening is to play around with SS benefit estimate calculators and see how occasional part-time work can really impact future benefits in place of a bunch of zeros.  As the first 'bend point' is at $926 ave monthly wages (about $11,000 annually) and results in 90% benefits, for early retirees* earning this amount per year can result in a substantial shift, which may or may not be important to you. 

*yes, call the IRP on me for suggesting some 'work' during ER.  :-P
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: YttriumNitrate on May 02, 2019, 06:43:20 PM
One aspect I've found enlightening is to play around with SS benefit estimate calculators and see how occasional part-time work can really impact future benefits in place of a bunch of zeros.  As the first 'bend point' is at $926 ave monthly wages (about $11,000 annually) and results in 90% benefits, for early retirees* earning this amount per year can result in a substantial shift, which may or may not be important to you.

While there will be some benefit to working during retirement, the SS calculation is done by taking the average of your highest indexed 35 yearly earnings (up to the SS max of about $130k) and then applying the formula that bends at $926 and then again around $5,500 monthly income. In other words, in your hustling years, if you work ~3 years at or above the SS max, you're already past the first bend point regardless how many zeros there are in the other 32 years. If you work ~17 years at the SS max, you get past the second bend point. Motley Fool Article on Calculating Benefit (https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/05/26/heres-how-the-social-security-retirement-benefit-f.aspx)

**So sayeth Officer YttriumNitrate of the IRP**
Title: Re: Is there a reliable site that lets you estimate Social Security if you FIRE?
Post by: LightStache on May 04, 2019, 12:53:31 PM
One aspect I've found enlightening is to play around with SS benefit estimate calculators and see how occasional part-time work can really impact future benefits in place of a bunch of zeros.  As the first 'bend point' is at $926 ave monthly wages (about $11,000 annually) and results in 90% benefits, for early retirees* earning this amount per year can result in a substantial shift, which may or may not be important to you.

While there will be some benefit to working during retirement, the SS calculation is done by taking the average of your highest indexed 35 yearly earnings (up to the SS max of about $130k) and then applying the formula that bends at $926 and then again around $5,500 monthly income. In other words, in your hustling years, if you work ~3 years at or above the SS max, you're already past the first bend point regardless how many zeros there are in the other 32 years. If you work ~17 years at the SS max, you get past the second bend point. Motley Fool Article on Calculating Benefit (https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/05/26/heres-how-the-social-security-retirement-benefit-f.aspx)

**So sayeth Officer YttriumNitrate of the IRP**

I also would see nil SS benefit from continuing work in RE and I suspect that's true for most early retirees. OP, recommend building your own spreadsheet for the educational value.