How long do you think you will actually keep the house? If it's less than 5 years, of course not worth it.
There is also the possibility of refinancing in future. A long shot if rates go up as the Fed intends, but conceivable.
Remember if you don't buy points, you could get stock market returns on the money instead. 6% on average, maybe? In any case, you don't win at breakeven, you have to have the interest savings compensate for the lost investment opportunity.
None of these things are fully predictable but the biggest variable is yourself. What's your intention of holding the house, and how confident are you in that predicting that you will fulfill your intention?
I don't pay points, but to me they look like a judgment call.
