Author Topic: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?  (Read 5276 times)

phimag512

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Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« on: July 14, 2016, 03:43:29 PM »
I'm just curious what everyone's thoughts are on NTDOY.  The Pokemon craze is out of control, and with it the stock has climbed high since July 1st. My question is, does it make sense to try and buy into Nintendo with the chance of them creating more apps like this or do you think it's not worth it because the stock already did it's thing by jumping and will plateau?

ketchup

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 04:07:40 PM »
As a non-stock-picker but lifetime Nintendo fan:

Probably not worth it.  It's hard to say how much staying power Pkmn Go will have, but I don't see it getting any bigger than it is at the moment (it's pretty huge).  It's probably not going to be insane like "the old days" of Pokémon (1998-2000).

Nintendo also didn't make the game.  They licensed the IP to Niantic.  So they get a cut of the profits, but Niantic sees most of that.

Another followup to Go (at least anytime soon) is probably unlikely.

Nintendo's Wii U has been essentially a flop, the future NX is uncertain, 3DS was explosively popular but seems to be fizzling out now with no clear path forward (hopefully its eventual successor will not be Wii U-like in success).

But I could be totally wrong, my crystal ball is at the cleaners, etc.

Murse

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 04:14:56 PM »
nah, the goal is to buy low and sell high, Not only would I not stock pick (even though it's tempting) but I definately would not pick a stock immediately after a release that made the stock soar, that's asking for a hurting. The time to buy is before a craze not after.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 05:12:57 PM by Murse »

Jack

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 04:20:28 PM »
Apparently, you'd  be better off buying AAPL!

Here's how David Gibson at Macquarie Research thinks the pie is split (emphasis ours):

The title was jointly developed by Niantic, Pokemon Company and Nintendo. It is unclear exactly what their economic interest is in the game, but we presume that out of every 100 units earned at the app store, 30 would go to Apple, 30 to Niantic, 30 to Pokemon and 10 to Nintendo.

Speaking of stock-picking and market-timing, back in February I thought AMD would be a good buy at $2/share (and am pretty sure I posted on somewhere on here saying as much). I didn't actually buy any myself, though, choosing to follow my IPS and invest in VTSAX and VTIAX instead. Now it's over $5/share. I can't decide whether to be proud of myself for being right, proud for sticking to my IPS, or sad that I didn't follow through on my insight.

patchyfacialhair

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2016, 04:54:55 PM »
What makes you think the stock will go higher than it already is? Serious question, what part of the company's financials or business plan inspires you to buy stock? Just because something is popular, doesn't mean it makes sense to buy into the company. Do your research first then make a decision. Also, the general mantra is buy low sell high, and right now it's higher than it was before. Doesn't mean it won't go higher of course, but it's just something to think about.

gooki

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2016, 02:23:42 AM »
The fact they are now moving beyond their propriety hardware. 

But I don't recommend picking individual stocks, just make sure they're part of your index funds.

MrMathMustache

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2016, 04:19:01 AM »
I'm not a single-stock buyer, but am a huge Nintendo fan.  Even with the surge recently, Nintendo stock is only now back to the levels it traded at when it first announced it was getting into the mobile scene & it's well off its highs from the Wii & DS era of '06-'09, so I wouldn't be shocked if went higher from here.  It's also worth noting that Nintendo owns 33% of the Pokemon Company and is also a big investor in Niantic, so it's not entirely accurate to say they only earn 10 cents of every dollar spent on Pokemon Go.

They have 2 big IP coming to mobile later this year (Animal Crossing & Fire Emblem), a mini-NES this November that's been getting huge buzz on social media since they announced it yesterday morning, and a wild card with its NX system in March 2017.  If you have a 'fun money' account, it might be worth taking a flyer on it.

FIREby35

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 07:12:36 AM »
If you owned a total stock market index fund you would have gotten a piece of the action.

Kaplin261

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2016, 07:42:12 AM »
How about other industries that will be affected by this craze? Pokemon is very taxing on phone batteries, more people are outside and will purchase sunscreen, lazy people will look for tools like segways, future partnerships like Mcdonalds may have events.

Scandium

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2016, 08:21:26 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.

ketchup

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2016, 08:54:21 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.

Scandium

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2016, 09:01:31 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..

ketchup

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2016, 09:39:15 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.

Scandium

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2016, 09:41:16 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.
Did the wii make money though? I thought everyone bought one, used it once during the holidays and then never again. Not much in license fees there, were MS and Sony make money on their consoles.

ketchup

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2016, 09:55:49 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.
Did the wii make money though? I thought everyone bought one, used it once during the holidays and then never again. Not much in license fees there, were MS and Sony make money on their consoles.
MS and Sony sold their consoles at a loss and made up for it with software sales, but the Wii was sold at a profit from the get-go.  And from some quick Googling, they did sell 963 million games.  Compared to 997 million Xbox 360 games and 962 million PS3 games.  All pretty dang close actually for that generation.

Scandium

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 10:40:49 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.
Did the wii make money though? I thought everyone bought one, used it once during the holidays and then never again. Not much in license fees there, were MS and Sony make money on their consoles.
MS and Sony sold their consoles at a loss and made up for it with software sales, but the Wii was sold at a profit from the get-go.  And from some quick Googling, they did sell 963 million games.  Compared to 997 million Xbox 360 games and 962 million PS3 games.  All pretty dang close actually for that generation.
What?! They sold a billion regurgitated kids/phone/flash games for that 486 console? Well shit then I guess anything is possible..

ketchup

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 11:54:37 AM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.
Did the wii make money though? I thought everyone bought one, used it once during the holidays and then never again. Not much in license fees there, were MS and Sony make money on their consoles.
MS and Sony sold their consoles at a loss and made up for it with software sales, but the Wii was sold at a profit from the get-go.  And from some quick Googling, they did sell 963 million games.  Compared to 997 million Xbox 360 games and 962 million PS3 games.  All pretty dang close actually for that generation.
What?! They sold a billion regurgitated kids/phone/flash games for that 486 console? Well shit then I guess anything is possible..
Well, about half (~400M) of those were the top ~50 selling games as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Wii_video_games  I'd consider most of those "real" games (and mostly Nintendo first party games at that, naturally) for that overclocked GameCube console.

The other half though were presumably shovelware garbage that somehow sold for that overclocked GameCube.  Some people will always buy trash I guess.  That's why Adam Sandler still makes movies.

jjcamembert

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2016, 12:03:09 PM »
No, too late. Where's the upside? The recent surge in price is just a result of increased expectations, which I doubt Nintendo will continue to meet. Also, they aren't making all the money:

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/07/8203400/is-apple-the-biggest-beneficiary-of-pokemon-go

MrMathMustache

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2016, 12:55:59 PM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.
Did the wii make money though? I thought everyone bought one, used it once during the holidays and then never again. Not much in license fees there, were MS and Sony make money on their consoles.
Microsoft has never made money with their Xbox division - in fact, they've lost several billion and have hidden within its "devices" sub-category for a few years now.

ketchup

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2016, 01:17:27 PM »
I recommend king digital. Candy crush is such a craze and their next hit will surely be even bigger! ....

Oh wait, no.
Well to be fair, Nintendo as a company has been around about 115 years longer.
Fair. But apart from a brief flash with wii bowling being a hit with old people, they haven't done much noteworthy since the 90s..
They did have ~100M Wii and ~150M DS system sales in the '06-'11 years.  Wii U and 3DS have done considerably less by comparison (especially Wii U), but their last wave of printing-money success post-90s (Wii/DS) was huge.
Did the wii make money though? I thought everyone bought one, used it once during the holidays and then never again. Not much in license fees there, were MS and Sony make money on their consoles.
Microsoft has never made money with their Xbox division - in fact, they've lost several billion and have hidden within its "devices" sub-category for a few years now.
Wow, I didn't know that.  I knew they were $4B in the red with the first Xbox but I had assumed they made it back since.

mtn

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2016, 01:42:06 PM »
If it wasn't for their upcoming releases (i.e. mini NES) I'd consider shorting them.

But I think the ship has sailed on this one.

forummm

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2016, 01:44:57 PM »
Microsoft has never made money with their Xbox division - in fact, they've lost several billion and have hidden within its "devices" sub-category for a few years now.

Does that include games and licensing, etc? All console developers lose money on the console sales. But they make it up through the other sources of ongoing revenue.

redbird

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2016, 02:55:49 PM »
It'll probably keep going up for this calendar year. Pokemon Sun and Moon are out in November. Even before the Pokemon Go craze, the main Pokemon game releases always get a ton of sales. I'm tempted to think Sun/Moon has a very real chance of selling even better than ANY main Pokemon games before just because of the fuel of the Pokemon Go hype. The casual players that have never touched a Pokemon game before Go will buy to see what a regular Pokemon game is like.

Mini NES will probably also sell very well for the holiday period.

But next year? Nintendo has been doing poorly on the home console front. Wii U did very poorly in comparison to what they had hoped. I think I read something about how Nintendo hoped for over 100 million units sold, but only approximately 13 million units have sold worldwide since the Wii U's release. The Nintendo NX (or whatever the official name will be) is supposedly due out next year, but who knows if it'll fare any better than the Wii U.

Prairie Stash

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Re: Is buying Nintendo Stock worth it or is it too late?
« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2016, 04:56:14 PM »
When will it be time to sell? Its easy to recognize the momentum, can you be fast enough to recognize the decline? Selling is the hard part when doing stock picking, buying is easy.