How to use Car Gurus to determine offer for certified used car?

[Bliss]

Hi everyone! My question is how to use websites like Car Gurus (or similar) to determine how much to offer for a certified used car at a local dealer. This particular dealer is NOT no-haggle, so I assume there's some room to move in whatever internet advertised price I see. My question is more about 'process' rather than this particular vehicle. Here are the specifics:

2015 Model Year with 53,000K miles, Certified Used:
- Listed on dealer website at $25,900.
- Listed on CarGurus at $25,900 as a 'Good Deal' at $1,600 under.
- Listed on Cars.com at $25,900 as a 'Great Deal.'

Two hours after I chose to get a Car Gurus text message and e-mail updates on this particular vehicle, I get an e-mail that the price has been reduced by $1,000. What luck! (Sarcasm)

I then went to the dealer website and the vehicle is still listed at the original price of $25,900. No mention of this recent discount.

I then went to KBB, found the same vehicle, and the KBB Fair Market Range is $27,000 to $30,000 with typical listing of $29,300. I suspect that, once the new 2019 models are out, this vehicle may not be able to be sold as 'Certified' used.

What additional price research would you do on this vehicle before contacting dealer? How can I determine what a good offer would be?

Thank you! My current car has >200K miles on it and I'm starting to research a replacement. :) Neither spouse nor I are 'car people' so we don't have any sort of gut reaction on prices or fair values. Any suggestions would be appreciated!!

[ShoulderThingThatGoesUp]

That’s an expensive car for that many miles. What make and model are you looking at? CPO programs vary wildly between OEMs and many (like Ford’s) are nearly worthless.

[Bliss]

Thank you for answering. Does this mean that you believe the CarGurus and Cars.com estimates to be inaccurate?

This particular example is a 2015 Lexus Rx 350. However, I'm looking at looking at several cars of various makes and models. My purpose of posting is to figure out how to use the online information from these sites to determine if the dealer's price is good (little room for negotiation) or poor (lots of room for negotiation).

Most of the articles and posts on car buying seem to focus on the 'how' tactics -- email several dealers, buy at month's end, don't include trade-in in price negotiation, etc. -- but very little on how to determine a good price.

Thank you again for reading!

[ShoulderThingThatGoesUp]

Used car prices don’t usually have tons of wiggle room. Maybe you’ll get $500 off, or $1000.

But if you are looking to save money, why are you buying a Lexus SUV that gets 21mpg? That thing is just a gussied up RAV4, and you can buy a RAV4 hybrid brand new for $28,000 and get 32 mpg.

32 MPG isn’t great in a world where plug-in cars exist, but it’s a hell of a lot better than 21mpg.

[Dave1442397]

I usually find the relevant car forum and check to see what people have been paying for their car, and whether dealers are willing to negotiate.

Here's the forum for the RX 350 - https://www.clublexus.com/forums/rx-3rd-gen-2010-2015-212/

The RX 350 is usually up for a discount, just because there are so many of them out there. Check Autotrader.com and Cargurus for CPO cars with an appropriate search radius (I have a lot of Lexus dealers within 75 miles of my house).

Also, go to the Lexus site and search for CPO cars. Looking at 2015 RX 350s within 100 miles brought up 193 cars for me - https://www.lexus.com/lcertified/search-inventory?models=RX&years=2015&minMileage=0&maxMileage=70000&minPrice=0&maxPrice=100000&radius=100&page=1&zip=08540

[Bliss]

Used car prices don’t usually have tons of wiggle room. Maybe you’ll get $500 off, or $1000.

A-ha! This is what I'm looking for. I didn't know this. So, if the various websites say that a particular deal is Good or Great, and KBB backs it up, then I can feel comfortable that my offer is a good one.

I'm also looking at Toyota and our local dealer is No-Haggle. In this case, I've noticed that prices are more standardized across dealerships and places like CarMax.

[Bliss]

I usually find the relevant car forum and check to see what people have been paying for their car, and whether dealers are willing to negotiate.

Thank you. Good tip! I never thought of looking there.