Well, I guess
@Emergo's not going to play, so I'm going to reply to your responses, then I'll tell you what my two reasons are. A bunch of people took guesses in my journal, so I'll use the same format over there. If you're thinking of buying a property, especially if it's your first home, you might find good info in both places.
The reason this is such a good case study is that these are all the same house. All the same floorplan, all end units. One could argue that some locations are better than others, but otherwise, they're the same. What's interesting is that some are identified as 2 bedroom, some 3 bedroom, some 2 bathrooms, some 2.5 bathrooms, some 3 bathrooms. For the record, the floorplan is 2.5 baths, 2 bedrooms and den at the top of the stairs. It's possible that the flipper added a wall, door, and closet to the den and is calling that the third bedroom. Did I mention THEY'RE ALL THE SAME DAMN FLOORPLAN?
...what sticks out to me is that someone is flipping this thing, but it sold BELOW LIST PRICE earlier this year. So something is wrong.
From there, the flippers only had it a few months, and here it is back on market. They also claim to have done a lot for the not-so-big price increase on the flip, especially at current prices. It appears that they also converted the den into a bedroom, but who knows how that worked out. I would certainly be skeptical of the work done.
But the huge red flag here is the below-market sale price earlier this year--that's unheard of in hot markets, and generally means serious/tremendous defect.
These were built in 1988 and a good percentage haven't sold since then. The number of original owners would tend to make me think there are no serious defects.
The Redfin estimates for these 12 units range from $720k to $924k*. So #620 was not sold below market. These units are very unusual (all the same, no HOA) and there hasn't been a lot of turnover, so the earlier selling price was fair, based on the lack of comps and condition of the unit, so not really a red flag there, IMO.
As to the not-so-big price increase, they're clearly hoping for a bidding war. I don't think it's going to happen. It's listed with a top Realtor, it's been on the market for 11 days, there's very little inventory for under $1M, and it's not pending yet.
Dead body inside? Walls rotting off? Homeless encampment in the yard? Flood? Fire burned part of it down? Meth lab inside? You got me.
Lol, none of the above as far as I can tell.
Yeah, the 4 month flip raises flags for me already, but I'm at a loss for why it sold for so little in March. I did see what looks like weird water damage in the photo of the pink wallpapered bathroom (photo #17).
The description of the HOA in the old listing is a little odd. Are there other units other than the 12 that have HOAs, but these dozen don't? I'd have questions about what that means...
I see the water damage, but I suspect it's due to a lack of ventilation, possibly a broken or disabled fan. Some people disconnect the fans when they get noisy rather than fixing them.
There are no other units.
*Here's my best guess as to why the huge range in "value". I think it has to do with the number of original owners, the number of times a unit has turned over, how updated it is and if the work was permitted. The highest value property has been extensively updated, the tax history reflects permitted work and it has turned over twice since 1988. But it's the same damn floorplan!
Drumroll please...here are my two reasons:
1. The cul-de-sac is perpendicular to the BART (train) tracks, which are elevated, so sound bounces off the end of the street. I suspect it's particularly bad in the upstairs bedrooms, and BART begins at 4am and runs until midnight. There are two BART stations nearby, so add in the godawful racket of train brakes screeching. The freeway noise is also a concern, but it's more of a constant, so easier to tune out. I'm not even beginning to address the air quality/pollution issue. Another clue to the probable noise issue is the island at the end of the cul-de-sac. It's planted with three Fruitless Mulberry trees. It's not clear who the trees or the island belong to, but they're messy trees and require severe pruning every other year or so. They provide big, leafy cover, so it's a safe bet they were put there in an effort to diffuse the waves of sound rolling off the train tracks and freeway. Oh, and while you're looking at the Island of Trees, notice where the mailboxes are. Everyone will be traipsing past your house to get their mail. In winter, they'll drove with their headlights boring right into your kitchen window. And they'll probably block your driveway while they're getting their mail. And mail theft is a huge problem in this area, so you'll probably want to get a P.O. Box, so now you'll have to put up with cars every day and your mail won't even be there. At least your mail will be secure, and the Post Office is nearby. Last I checked, they have a waiting list for boxes though. Reason 1A- Use google maps: you'll see it's surrounded mostly by apartment buildings. The cross street is full of parked cars and even a couple of RV's. Google Maps, especially Street View and History, are your friends.
2. There is no HOA, but there are common walls, which is problematic. More importantly, because these places were originally cheap and they have no HOA, the street is full of cars parked on lawns (well, those that bother to keep up the front landscaping), there is a camper permanently mounted on blocks in front of one property and not one of them seems to have been painted since they were built. Some of the greenhouse windows appear to be leaking and look like crap. Nobody is maintaining the weird tile facades in the middle of each unit. Lots of missing grout. Interestingly, since there is no HOA, anyone could replace that crappy looking tile with anything they want. The street definitely has a trailer park vibe about it, with apologies to trailer parks everywhere. Much as I am not a fan of HOA's, they do serve a purpose.
Okay, that's all for now. There were a lot of good observations and questions in my journal, so if you like this stuff and your eyes haven't glazed over, I'm going to tackle those next.
This Real Estate Lesson has been provided by Dicey, who is not a Real Estate Professional, nor does she play one on TV. This advice is worth every penny you paid for it.
