How many miles is a car good for?
I'm looking at getting a new car (honda or toyota minivan) for my growing family, new will run me 27k, used 8 years old with 100k miles will run me 10k.
Since the difference in price between the two is 17k, I figure that the first 100k miles will run me 17 cents a mile, that means I'd have to get another 58,824 miles out of the car that already has 100k miles on it with nothing going wrong just to break even. But transmissions go bad, so do engines, and hoses, and power steering racks and radiators, and emissions systems, and Air Conditioning, and on and on.
So it seems like the odds are in favor of buying new, but I'm clueless on cars. I've always shot for 100k as a scrap point.
Thoughts on the longevity of such cars?
Is there an estimate as to the mileage tipping point at which the probability of a car having issues starts to take off? (reliability is paramount, I will not be driving it often, but I don't want my family breaking down, can't lose AC with the little ones, and when I do go on trips with them, I cannot afford to be delayed on the return).