Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?

[BlueHouse]

your latitude is not that big an issue; the world leader in PVs is Germany, and they are much further north than MN

I‘m from Germany. Latitude is an issue. Hamburg is at the same latitude as Edmonton, Canada. Solar panels are not producing any significant amount of energy here from November to February.

The reason PV is popular has to do with the way our renewable energy program had been structured. Unfortunately it also had the side effect of increasing coal burning for producing electricity which has led to an increase in green house gases over all. It would have been better to focus on wind turbines and power to gas installations, as those produce more reliable energy in autumn and winter here.

I am thinking in the northern mid-west that estimates for Jan/Feb are optimistic, simply because we can get weeks worth of snow storms basically back to back. Even if there is sun, there may be weeks at a time where the snow never gets a chance to melt.

I live in DC and my solar panels are installed flat due to the roof,   My solar installer told me that because of the non-angle, the panels would underproduce in the winter and "overproduce" in the summer. 
It wasn't until I almost repeated this to someone else that I thought...huh?  oh man...smack my head!    They do great in the summer, so at least there's that. 

[Mgmny]

AnonOne

Xcel Energy approved me for 29 panels instead of the original 22 I was estimating off. HOWEVER, the cost went from $29,000 for 22 panels (8.5 system) to $39,000 for 29 panels (11.1 system).

I balked at the 35% system increase cost when the panels and production are only going up 32%, and I have to imagine many of the costs are static (new meter, inverter, wiring, admin costs, engineering), but my sales rep said, "I double checked, but that is the new cost." What? How can that be? How can adding 7 panels increase my cost by $10,000??

Any idea???

[Lucky Penny Acres]

The increase could have caused you to need a larger inverter, larger gauge wiring throughout to handle the increased production, or other changes.  There could be additional engineering to mount the extra panels - maybe 22 is on a simple setup in rows and 29 requires a different setup or uses multiple levels of your roof.

Also - is that price factoring in tax credits or incentives that max out? Maybe you get a state credit for 25% off but capped at a max of $5,000 (which was the credit for NY state a couple years ago at least) so for the 22 panel setup a larger portion of the total price is the tax credit and you get no further credit by going to a larger system as the credit is maxed out so the price increases faster.

Another possibility is that 22 can be installed in a set number of days of worker time and moving to 29 panels adds an extra day of installation so labor is a lot higher as they have to drive to your site an additional day.

Hopefully they can give you 2 detailed estimates that show exactly which parts are increasing by moving from 22 to 29 and not just give the totals.

[TheAnonOne]

AnonOne

Xcel Energy approved me for 29 panels instead of the original 22 I was estimating off. HOWEVER, the cost went from $29,000 for 22 panels (8.5 system) to $39,000 for 29 panels (11.1 system).

I balked at the 35% system increase cost when the panels and production are only going up 32%, and I have to imagine many of the costs are static (new meter, inverter, wiring, admin costs, engineering), but my sales rep said, "I double checked, but that is the new cost." What? How can that be? How can adding 7 panels increase my cost by $10,000??

Any idea???

When my system was in flux going from 13KW to 16KW to 14.4KW I always had the agreement with the solar company to keep the COST PER WATT the same. I am at $3.10, so going with a larger system or smaller was basically identical as far as ROI.

I would ask that your COST PER WATT gets fixed. Remember, there are other installers....

[TheAnonOne]

The increase could have caused you to need a larger inverter, larger gauge wiring throughout to handle the increased production, or other changes.  There could be additional engineering to mount the extra panels - maybe 22 is on a simple setup in rows and 29 requires a different setup or uses multiple levels of your roof.

Also - is that price factoring in tax credits or incentives that max out? Maybe you get a state credit for 25% off but capped at a max of $5,000 (which was the credit for NY state a couple years ago at least) so for the 22 panel setup a larger portion of the total price is the tax credit and you get no further credit by going to a larger system as the credit is maxed out so the price increases faster.

Another possibility is that 22 can be installed in a set number of days of worker time and moving to 29 panels adds an extra day of installation so labor is a lot higher as they have to drive to your site an additional day.

Hopefully they can give you 2 detailed estimates that show exactly which parts are increasing by moving from 22 to 29 and not just give the totals.

In MN here the size is irrelevant as far as credits, other than you can't go OVER the maximum of 120% of your use-age.

That being said, Mgmny really needs to focus on keeping the COST PER WATT the same, it should be around $3 per watt, going too much over that starts to seem like a ripoff. (Mine is $3.10, but smaller systems can be a bit more)

If anything, realistically, the larger system should have a LOWER cost per watt.

[TheAnonOne]

Update: The array got installed in time. It won't be officially 'on' until later in the month.

February will be the first real bill with the thing, but Feb is probably the worst month for solar. Very excited to see this thing in action over the summer!

[Mgmny]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

[TheAnonOne]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

[Mgmny]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

[JLee]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

Have you looked into other companies with other financing options?  My solar loan provides 0% / no payments for the amount of the tax credit, which is due in Jun 2020.  If I don't pay that portion in full, it gets rolled into the rest of the loan (without penalty) for 10 years @ 3.99%. In the meantime, I pay payments on the remaining 70%.

[nereo]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Our state got hit with a “perfect storm” of the sun setting of the solar credit with the reinstatement of net metering and ultra-low unemployment. Consequentially it is a four month wait for our install, which is pretty standard in this area. Thankfully the should be up towards late March, just as the days really start getting longer

[Mgmny]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

Have you looked into other companies with other financing options?  My solar loan provides 0% / no payments for the amount of the tax credit, which is due in Jun 2020.  If I don't pay that portion in full, it gets rolled into the rest of the loan (without penalty) for 10 years @ 3.99%. In the meantime, I pay payments on the remaining 70%.

2 thoughts:

1. Are you sure about your loan? I was presented by the solar installer that this would be the case: "As long as you apply your tax credit within 18 months of initiation of the loan, your payment won't change - the initial payments are structured so that it assumes yuou will give the 30%, and then adjust accordingly! It's lower than it should be because of the pending tax credit! It's great!

So I looked into the fine print and the amortization schedule and that was WRONG and MISLEADING! I was still paying the interest on the amount of the tax credit, but they were making me pay as though I wasn't, so every month that i didn't apply the credit, the loan accrued more interest than it should have (to a tune of like $325 a year). I thought this, because i said, "Hey! I've got 18 months to apply the credit, and i'm not being charged! I'll just take the 30% credit, put it in the market, and then apply it to the loan at month 18! Yahtzee!" However, after vetting this approach, it was clear the salesperson was misleading me on how it worked. I called him on it, and he was like, "Oh.. hmm, yeah that's another way to look at it. Honestly, if you have any questions, you need to talk to the solar loan company directly - i'm not great at the math."

2. I already gave the solar company $500 deposit, so i woudl be out $500 if i shop around.

[Fishindude]

I would never advise putting solar panels on your roof.   Ground mount them on a rack system in the yard.

All of those anchor points from the solar panels are "holes in the roof" and potential sources of leaks.   Also, at some point you will need to re-roof and it will be much more difficult and costly as the solar panels will have to be removed and reinstalled.

[TheAnonOne]

I would never advise putting solar panels on your roof.   Ground mount them on a rack system in the yard.

All of those anchor points from the solar panels are "holes in the roof" and potential sources of leaks.   Also, at some point you will need to re-roof and it will be much more difficult and costly as the solar panels will have to be removed and reinstalled.

If I had an open field available, I may have gone that way :)

[nereo]

I would never advise putting solar panels on your roof.   Ground mount them on a rack system in the yard.

All of those anchor points from the solar panels are "holes in the roof" and potential sources of leaks.   Also, at some point you will need to re-roof and it will be much more difficult and costly as the solar panels will have to be removed and reinstalled.

Here are some counter points...
1) Irradiance is much higher on our roof than in our yard (yes, we measured)
2) shingling a roof puts thousands of nail holes in your roof. Mounting panels on a standing seam roof doesn’t add any
3) PVs increase the longevity of  the shingles
4) I don’t want to sacrifice my limited yard real estate with PVs.
5) getting power from my yard to my home would involve digging up my driveway and laying cable. Not cheap or easy
6) round here field mounted PVs occasionally go missing (stolen). I’ve yet to read about any roof mounted systems suffering a similar fate.

Your points are good ones to consider @Fishindude - but certainly not enough to say “never” roof mount panels.

[Jon Bon]

Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

[JLee]

Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

Have you looked into other companies with other financing options?  My solar loan provides 0% / no payments for the amount of the tax credit, which is due in Jun 2020.  If I don't pay that portion in full, it gets rolled into the rest of the loan (without penalty) for 10 years @ 3.99%. In the meantime, I pay payments on the remaining 70%.

2 thoughts:

1. Are you sure about your loan? I was presented by the solar installer that this would be the case: "As long as you apply your tax credit within 18 months of initiation of the loan, your payment won't change - the initial payments are structured so that it assumes yuou will give the 30%, and then adjust accordingly! It's lower than it should be because of the pending tax credit! It's great!

So I looked into the fine print and the amortization schedule and that was WRONG and MISLEADING! I was still paying the interest on the amount of the tax credit, but they were making me pay as though I wasn't, so every month that i didn't apply the credit, the loan accrued more interest than it should have (to a tune of like $325 a year). I thought this, because i said, "Hey! I've got 18 months to apply the credit, and i'm not being charged! I'll just take the 30% credit, put it in the market, and then apply it to the loan at month 18! Yahtzee!" However, after vetting this approach, it was clear the salesperson was misleading me on how it worked. I called him on it, and he was like, "Oh.. hmm, yeah that's another way to look at it. Honestly, if you have any questions, you need to talk to the solar loan company directly - i'm not great at the math."

2. I already gave the solar company $500 deposit, so i woudl be out $500 if i shop around.

No payments no interest on mine.  Are you sure your deposit isn't refundable?

[JLee]

Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

You're assuming the cost of power doesn't change for the next 20 years?

[nereo]

Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

You're assuming the cost of power doesn't change for the next 20 years?

My thoughts as well.  Additionally, I haven't seen a 20 year payback on any system installed in the last decade.   8-10 is more common, and less if your state has favorable buyback and tax incentives. 
Absolutely - one should calculate the real cost and payback periods, and opportunity costs.  But realistic time periods matter too.

[Jon Bon]

Sure there are all kinds of assumptions in there.

Cost of power does not change
Production of panels remain the same
Roof/panels never need replaced
And many more

The list goes on. Just saying that we need to be honest with ourselves about pricing out these systems. But my point is the same: a 20k system that saves you $1000 a year is not a good investment.

[JLee]

Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

You're assuming the cost of power doesn't change for the next 20 years?

My thoughts as well.  Additionally, I haven't seen a 20 year payback on any system installed in the last decade.   8-10 is more common, and less if your state has favorable buyback and tax incentives. 
Absolutely - one should calculate the real cost and payback periods, and opportunity costs.  But realistic time periods matter too.

Yeah, mine is about a six year payback with state incentives continuing to pay until the 10 year mark.

[nereo]

The list goes on. Just saying that we need to be honest with ourselves about pricing out these systems. But my point is the same: a 20k system that saves you $1000 a year is not a good investment.

Compared to what??
Currently 10y treasury notes are paying 1.83%.  Even if we make all these assumptions and calculate out a 20 year 'payback' that's akin to a 3.8% return, and one that is constant, year-over-year (albeit by reducing expenses, not by providing a return).  In short - it's one of the better very-low-risk investments out there right now.

Many of us carry bonds in our portfolio, or spend considerable effort to minimize expenses far below the median.

Right now, with our current bond market and decades of low inflation, a "20y return with little/no downside" is a compelling investment indeed.  That's part of the reason why so many businesses have taken cash on hand to buy PV arrays - they simply can't find better returns with lower risk.

[Jon Bon]

I don't know, inflation usually runs 3% +-.  I dont need to tell you what the S&P has done the past 10 years.

Also if you buy those T-bills you do zero work and get 1.8% return.

Solar panels are going to require some sort of work or upkeep, so maybe even calling them an investment in the first place is even a stretch.

Oh and those t-bills at the end of 20 years you get all that interest AND your principal back.

After 20 years (ok maybe 30) Probably are going to be nearing the end of their useful life, and your roof most likely will be. And you sure as heck are not selling them back for your initial 20k. So the principal on these is most likely lost, or severely deprecated.

As stated before I like the idea, but for me (and I believe most others) unless you DIY the install they don't make a ton of sense. Granted all my statements are reflecting where I live power is pretty cheap, so if your rates are higher (or get more sun) you might be much better off.

Just thinking out loud here kind of like buying a Tesla to 'save on gas' sure you will most definitely save on gas, but its still a 100k outlay, and at the end of its useful life the car is nearly worthless.

[JLee]

I don't know, inflation usually runs 3% +-.  I dont need to tell you what the S&P has done the past 10 years.

Also if you buy those T-bills you do zero work and get 1.8% return.

Solar panels are going to require some sort of work or upkeep, so maybe even calling them an investment in the first place is even a stretch.

My entire system, panels/inverters/etc has a 25 year output, parts, and labor warranty. What "work or upkeep" are you referring to?

Oh and those t-bills at the end of 20 years you get all that interest AND your principal back.

After 20 years (ok maybe 30) Probably are going to be nearing the end of their useful life, and your roof most likely will be. And you sure as heck are not selling them back for your initial 20k. So the principal on these is most likely lost, or severely deprecated.

See above; 25 year in-warranty period

As stated before I like the idea, but for me (and I believe most others) unless you DIY the install they don't make a ton of sense. Granted all my statements are reflecting where I live power is pretty cheap, so if your rates are higher (or get more sun) you might be much better off.

My power is 30% more expensive than the national average and my state has solar incentives to the point where you can finance a system for 10 years and be cash positive on day one. After 10 years, the state incentives end, the loan is paid off, and you now have a "free" solar system with 15 years of warranty and output remaining.

Just thinking out loud here kind of like buying a Tesla to 'save on gas' sure you will most definitely save on gas, but its still a 100k outlay, and at the end of its useful life the car is nearly worthless.

Even a Model 3 Performance is less than $60k, the dual motor long range is less than $50k, and the SR+ is less than $40k. You need to go S/X Performance to get to $100k. They also depreciate vastly slower than you may expect -- a 2yo Model 3 dual motor long range with ~35k miles on it is $4k cheaper than a brand new one. Also, I don't think anybody is buying Teslas specifically "to save on gas." It helps the math, but if the goal is the ultimate in cost savings, a cheap hybrid is likely the best route.

See bolded.

[nereo]

I don't know, inflation usually runs 3% +-.  I dont need to tell you what the S&P has done the past 10 years.

Also if you buy those T-bills you do zero work and get 1.8% return.

Solar panels are going to require some sort of work or upkeep, so maybe even calling them an investment in the first place is even a stretch.

Oh and those t-bills at the end of 20 years you get all that interest AND your principal back.

After 20 years (ok maybe 30) Probably are going to be nearing the end of their useful life, and your roof most likely will be. And you sure as heck are not selling them back for your initial 20k. So the principal on these is most likely lost, or severely deprecated.

As stated before I like the idea, but for me (and I believe most others) unless you DIY the install they don't make a ton of sense. Granted all my statements are reflecting where I live power is pretty cheap, so if your rates are higher (or get more sun) you might be much better off.

Just thinking out loud here kind of like buying a Tesla to 'save on gas' sure you will most definitely save on gas, but its still a 100k outlay, and at the end of its useful life the car is nearly worthless.

• Inflation hasn't run above 3% since before the 'great recession'.  At current bond yields and current inflation you aren't likely to get any 'return' on $20k at all. At present it's basically about principle protection, which isn't necessarily a bad thing
• Panels are rated and warranted for 25 years, at which they will put out at least 80% of the initial production.  Most people in the industry expect them to produce for 30-40 years before failure.
  
• I'm not sure what work or maintenence you are referring to.  General guidelines are now to NOT try to sweep or wash the panels. The installer does all the work.  ABout all I do is sign some paperwork and cut the cheque for the install.  The installer even set up the billing with my local utility.
  
  • I've yet to encounter a 20y payback period unless its in a truly sub-optimal installation location.  Ours are between 8-9 years, which corresponds to a ~10.2%  annualized return on investment.
  While there's some truth that I won't get the principle of my initial investment back, it's definitely longer than 20 years, and it too will be subject to inflation.
• an SP500 index fund carries far greater risk than installing solar panels.  Most installs seem to fall somewhere between the 8-12 year period, which corresponds to a 9-12% return over that 20 year period.  Feel free to share numbers from your municipality.  I'm sure in some locations it isn't as great a deal.  But 20 years seems extreme.
• If mine fail or need maintence or replacement it's covered under warranty.  If the market goes down I lose money. In other words, it's lower risk than equities (hence the comparison to bonds - where the yield is known at the time of purchase and the principle investments are protected

[Jon Bon]

Maybe I was not clear, my numbers are made up. But the concept of discounted cash flows is legitimate. When you get into 5+ year timelines the power of discounting really starts to matter. So I was just pointing out that people should not be counting the final years of the project payoff to be worth the same amount that they are today.

As for the finer points of the discussion panels/rates/etc sure we could discuss those, but I'm pretty sure you guys have a better knowledge of the situation than I do.

I would be extremely surprised if someone can have zero maintenance on something that sits out in the elements for 25 years. I think we all realize that warranties are only as good as the company that backs it up. Hey maybe let me know in 20 years!

I'm really much more interested in the real world performance and payback of a system from real people. I feel like so much of the information out there is put out by installers and manufactures, so I am highly suspicious of their predictions.

[nereo]

Maybe I was not clear, my numbers are made up. But the concept of discounted cash flows is legitimate. When you get into 5+ year timelines the power of discounting really starts to matter. So I was just pointing out that people should not be counting the final years of the project payoff to be worth the same amount that they are today.

As for the finer points of the discussion panels/rates/etc sure we could discuss those, but I'm pretty sure you guys have a better knowledge of the situation than I do.

I would be extremely surprised if someone can have zero maintenance on something that sits out in the elements for 25 years. I think we all realize that warranties are only as good as the company that backs it up. Hey maybe let me know in 20 years!

I'm really much more interested in the real world performance and payback of a system from real people. I feel like so much of the information out there is put out by installers and manufactures, so I am highly suspicious of their predictions.

Yes, we understood that your numbers were made up.  But for a constructive conversation it’s important that numbers be at least plausible.  Twenty years isn’t, for modern installs on a decent site. Claiming - without evidence - that PVs are only financially viable if one DIYs is equally dishonest

As for real world performance and payback from actual people - hey, you’ve come tot he right place!  Sol had an excellent multi-year thread on his panels Complete with upfront cost, tax and utility-paybacks, solar output etc, as did Ericka.  THere’s even lots of chatting about ‘delivery’ fees and what that does to payback.  Snoyk made an off-grid PV array for his working space, including his “manually-adjustable PV trackers”.  Or you could read all about my journey with PVs!  No BS and all sorts of extraneous information you don’t get from your typical glossy advertising pamphlet, good and bad.

Yes, the company matters when it comes to warranties - which is a key reason why we went with the most well known company in our region, also a coop and a certified B-corp with an excellent, multi-decade track record.  The equipment you install also matters a great deal with reliability, and **where/how** it is installed.  The panels themselves rarely fail except when by direct impact (e.g. tree branches during storms).  Microinverters increase panel efficiency when there are uneven shading issues, but are expensive and prone to failure (and one of the reasons we opted for optimizers (pun intended) rather than microinverters on our setup).  Solar trackers are similarly problematic (again, why we went with a fixed mount - the increase in captured irradiance wasn’t worth the cost or hassle, particularly given our roof pitch).

Is the process of having contractors put up PVs as low-impact as buying a bond index fund?  Clearly no - though the life disruption and time invested was fairly minimal.  But are the ‘returns’ (here: reduced energy costs and utility credits/paybacks) more than I would receive from VBMFX?  Absolutely - in fact they are more than double, with minimal risk. 

Your point that the end of the project payoff should be discounted would be a good one if electricity prices stay flat or if inflation increases faster than electricity rates.  For several decades the opposite has been true, at least in our region. Given our aging infrastructure and how much of the distribution and transmission lines are privately owned my opinion is that this trend will continue, if not accelerate.  TIme of course will tell.

[Cadman]

I hate to be that guy, but there is legitimate maintenance you should be doing if you have a PV array.

Here in the midwest, we're pulling snow off with telescopic brooms right now. The racking manufacturer recommends an annual tightening of the hex screws that secure them to the ground posts as thermal cycling can loosen them over time. The electrical wiring should be checked twice a year for environmental and animal damage. And if you don't have a mechanism (like a daily email report) for knowing if an errant inverter fault occurs, you can miss out on days or weeks of production. This happens at least once a year depending on severity of local thunderstorms.

Hard work? No. But a little more attention required compared to investing in a T-Bill.

[nereo]

I hate to be that guy, but there is legitimate maintenance you should be doing if you have a PV array.

Here in the midwest, we're pulling snow off with telescopic brooms right now. The racking manufacturer recommends an annual tightening of the hex screws that secure them to the ground posts as thermal cycling can loosen them over time. The electrical wiring should be checked twice a year for environmental and animal damage. And if you don't have a mechanism (like a daily email report) for knowing if an errant inverter fault occurs, you can miss out on days or weeks of production. This happens at least once a year depending on severity of local thunderstorms.

Hard work? No. But a little more attention required compared to investing in a T-Bill.

You are correct that PVs are more work than simply buying a bond fund - and my earlier posts said as much.  But the time investment is pretty minimal - certainly less than, say, RE with a property management company.

Re: snow and raking the panels - I had an interesting discussion with our installer about this.  Their recommendations now are specifically NOT to remove now now, for two reasons basic reasons - i) the snow tends to self-clear within a day or so of the sun coming I back out and ii) power generation on overcast winter days is a small fraction of overall production. THer’s also he chance that someone might whack a panel a little too hard with a 25’ snow rake.

 My POC fort he install came from a science background like me and he decided to rake half his panels and record the differences in terms of time-spent and energy gained... IIRC he got something like $3 in extra energy savings last winter for what amounted to a collective hour+ of work (5-10 minutes each snowstorm). 

::shrug::  My broader point is that we spent considerable time calculating the various costs (incl. opportunity costs) and for us the panels were a sound economical decision with a decent & constant ROI, low (but certainly not zero) effort and very little risk (i.e. volatility). They certainly won’t beat a good decade of market gains but are certainly better than a bad decade, with minimal volatility.

[Cadman]

Must depend on location...If we don't clear the snow, it may take days before they'll self-clear as the ice layer underneath makes a pretty good bond, but it can't melt because the snow layer is a great insulator. Being ground mount it only takes a few minutes.

Some of our highest generating PV days are actually during the winter since the efficiency is so much higher when temps are below 0F. Of course you need the sun, too.

$3 per winter? You sure he didn't mean per day? That's about what we average, so if even a single panel in a series string is covered, our output is sub 1kW.

[nereo]

Must depend on location...If we don't clear the snow, it may take days before they'll self-clear as the ice layer underneath makes a pretty good bond, but it can't melt because the snow layer is a great insulator. Being ground mount it only takes a few minutes.

Some of our highest generating PV days are actually during the winter since the efficiency is so much higher when temps are below 0F. Of course you need the sun, too.

$3 per winter? You sure he didn't mean per day? That's about what we average, so if even a single panel in a series string is covered, our output is sub 1kW.

Ah, good catch.  Per storm, not per winter.  Half the array is 2.6kw; we get roughly 6-7 hours of productive sunlight in winter, so 16-18kw lost per day.  At 14¢/kw hour that’s just under $3 for clearing vs not clearing After a snowstorm.  Worth the 10 minutes? Shrug.  If you are out already and have the tools.  IME they clear on their own pretty quick, and since we are running a net surplus and we only get credits (not $ back) there’s little incentive to squeeze out a few dozen more kw from the system.

We haven’t really had a problem with ice, but I hear that concern more from people in the Midwest.  Too cold here in general for ice?

[Mgmny]

So, I don't have a good understanding of all the investment/return math, but from my perspective, it can't be a bad investment.

I put $500 down on my panels and took out a loan for the rest.

Their conservative estimate says I will produce $207 worth of electicity, net metering, and credits/rewards monthly. My loan cost is about $200 monthly.

This means that according to their conservative estimate, I am getting $7 a month "extra" on my initiatial $500 investment.

7*12 =  $84

$84 / 500 = 17%.

So, from my perspective, I will have a 17% annual return on my initial $500 investment.

Why is my math / understanding wrong?

[nereo]

My only questions about your calculations is whether that estimated $207 is the average monthly production or whether that’s a high-water mark (which is typically in late spring in the northern hemisphere). 

Just guesstimating here... $207/month in electricity generated suggest you have a rather large system - 12-14kw? That’s how large a system I’d need to generate the ~17,700 kilowatts annually to average $207/mo. What are your electricity rates?

Again spitballing here... but a $20k, 10y solar loan at 3.75% would is in line with your $200 payment, so that seems plausible.

[Mgmny]

My only questions about your calculations is whether that estimated $207 is the average monthly production or whether that’s a high-water mark (which is typically in late spring in the northern hemisphere). 

Just guesstimating here... $207/month in electricity generated suggest you have a rather large system - 12-14kw? That’s how large a system I’d need to generate the ~17,700 kilowatts annually to average $207/mo. What are your electricity rates?

Again spitballing here... but a $20k, 10y solar loan at 3.75% would is in line with your $200 payment, so that seems plausible.

Ok I just went back to the sales doc they gave me, and it looks like i was quoting from the 22 panel system, but i'm getting the 24 panel system:

System is 24, 385W panels, so 9.24kW.

Solar rewards in my state is $0.07 /kWh
Current electric rate of $0.13 / kWh

Here are some assumptions:
Annual Acccess to Sun: 90%
System degradation rate: 0.7%
orientation(degrees): 155
Tilt (degrees): 22.5

My "calculated" annual usage (because i just moved into this brand new house in August, so no full year of data yet) is 8,252 kWh
My calculated solar production: 11,664

Price of system: $31,542
26% credit (sigh, not 30%): $8,201
down payment: $500
Loan: $22,841

15 year loan
Monthly payment: $170
Monthly electric "savings": $125
Monthly Rewards "rebate": $68
Positive: $23 a month

They gave me a graphic that shows the difference - it looks like i'll make the most money in march and april, actually, so let's get these panels up!!

[Mgmny]

[TheAnonOne]

I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

[Mgmny]

I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

I did ask a few months ago, and they said that the 385 were "more economical." This is why i am annoyed by this process. If you remember in an earlier post, my cost per watt went UP as i asked for more panels, for some unknown reason.

[nereo]

Sounds pretty good @Mgmny - and plausible.  With a 90% site you’re looking at a 1.26x multiple, which is pretty decent.  We are at 1.19 with ours.  Sounds like your utilities offer a reasonable rebate as well - something I wish ours did.

One thing that will take your investment even further is to get your energy usage down.  8.8kw is pretty high, but I know nothing about your house size or family needs.  Air sealing gives you the biggest bang for your buck - literally a few cans of spray foam and a couple tubes of caulk can cut your energy usage by a few percent. Then insulation (attic first, then basement & rim joists). Toss any incandescent bulbs for LEDs - the ROI is less than a year.  Cut your energy consumption to under 7kw and your rebate could be closer to $500/year. 

[Mgmny]

Sounds pretty good @Mgmny - and plausible.  With a 90% site you’re looking at a 1.26x multiple, which is pretty decent.  We are at 1.19 with ours.  Sounds like your utilities offer a reasonable rebate as well - something I wish ours did.

One thing that will take your investment even further is to get your energy usage down.  8.8kw is pretty high, but I know nothing about your house size or family needs.  Air sealing gives you the biggest bang for your buck - literally a few cans of spray foam and a couple tubes of caulk can cut your energy usage by a few percent. Then insulation (attic first, then basement & rim joists). Toss any incandescent bulbs for LEDs - the ROI is less than a year.  Cut your energy consumption to under 7kw and your rebate could be closer to $500/year.

Thanks Nereo! We can probably work on consuming less, but our house should be up to really good insulation standards as it was just built in 2019. 2x6 walls with R20 insulation. R49 attic. House Wrap, Spray foam rim insulation. Sealed interior vapor and air barrier.

One thing (and not to hijack the thread), but because of all the air and vapor barrier, we are instructed to run our air exchanger 24/7. This seems counter-productive... What do the people here think? I've read conflicting things online...

[TheAnonOne]

I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

I did ask a few months ago, and they said that the 385 were "more economical." This is why i am annoyed by this process. If you remember in an earlier post, my cost per watt went UP as i asked for more panels, for some unknown reason.

Ah, as we were adjusting my array larger and and then smaller, we kept the $/w the same at all changes.

In reality this was kinda dumb, when it is larger the $/w needs to go down, not even stay =. Though, the rush to hit 2019 was probably worth avoiding the argument.

14.4kw was as large as Xcel would allow, and we maxed it.

[nereo]

It all depends on what your air exchange rate is.  If your home is very tight (say < 0.7 ACH50) it’s a good idea to run an air exchanger frequently, if not continually.  If it’s between 0.7-1 the general guidelines say periodically a few times per day.

The nice thing about air exchangers is it brings air in on your terms - filtered and with most of the heat recovered and the humidity kept within a very narrow range.  Modern ones are extremely efficient.

[Mgmny]

I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

I did ask a few months ago, and they said that the 385 were "more economical." This is why i am annoyed by this process. If you remember in an earlier post, my cost per watt went UP as i asked for more panels, for some unknown reason.

Ah, as we were adjusting my array larger and and then smaller, we kept the $/w the same at all changes.

In reality this was kinda dumb, when it is larger the $/w needs to go down, not even stay =. Though, the rush to hit 2019 was probably worth avoiding the argument.

14.4kw was as large as Xcel would allow, and we maxed it.

Yeah, at this point I'm sure the ship has sailed because permit with the city has the permits and Xcel has approved everything.

[BlueHouse]

My numbers:
4.96 kw PV Solar System.  Installation Complete on 12/17/2018

Total PV Solar System Price:  $24,800
   Less credit for SRECs:        $17,560  (I traded the company the Energy credits in exchange for the material & install of the system)
                                          ----------
                                           $ 7,240  (I paid this amount)

30% credit on Federal return  $7,440  (I received this amount back on taxes 4 months later)
                                          -----------
                                                -200  (yes, they paid me to install, permit, coordinate net-metering, etc)


Apparently there are now 8 states with Solar carve-outs and solar credits (you get paid money for the amount of energy that you produce each year -- on top of your energy savings).  Many people in DC keep their SRECs and trade them on the market for about $400/SREC per year.  I opted to just not have any money out of pocket (except for 4 months).  so with zero investment on the solar panels, I don't see how I could have gone wrong. 
 

[nereo]

that's amazing @BlueHouse  Wish my state was as progressive with PV installs, but we are just recovering from a very anti-renewable, anti-environment government.  Just glad we have net metering now :-)

[BlueHouse]

that's amazing @BlueHouse  Wish my state was as progressive with PV installs, but we are just recovering from a very anti-renewable, anti-environment government.  Just glad we have net metering now :-)

Yes, it really makes people act faster when there is an incentive.  I wish every state offered Energy Credits. 

[JLee]

that's amazing @BlueHouse  Wish my state was as progressive with PV installs, but we are just recovering from a very anti-renewable, anti-environment government.  Just glad we have net metering now :-)

Yes, it really makes people act faster when there is an incentive.  I wish every state offered Energy Credits.

SRECs are what makes the math work for me in NJ -- I'm looking at ~$3k/year there with a 10yr window (SREC value will change over time but I'm guaranteed 10 years).

[Mgmny]

Reporting in:

TENTATIVE install date of Feb 17th. Dependent on weather (which this time of year in MN is tricky).

There is snow on my roof, so i don't really know if they would go up there or not (even though it isn't/haven't snowed in a week). My guess is that they would not, but if that's the case (and if everyone has snow on their roof), then my install date will be pushed out significantly, I'm sure.

[Mgmny]

AnonOne!

How are your panels producing? Mine just went "online" yesterday when Xcel Energy left! I haven't had access to any monitoring software yet, but i'm excited to soon! I tried decrypting the two meters to see what my usage vs production was, but i couldn't figure it out.

Let me know how yours is doing!

[nereo]

AnonOne!

How are your panels producing? Mine just went "online" yesterday when Xcel Energy left! I haven't had access to any monitoring software yet, but i'm excited to soon! I tried decrypting the two meters to see what my usage vs production was, but i couldn't figure it out.

Let me know how yours is doing!

Congrats on going online!
Ours should be going up on our new place in about 3 weeks.

[Mgmny]

My panels are rated for 385W. Is this normal? I just got access to the monitoring software like 30 minutes ago, so I don't know what I'm doing, but some of my panels are performing close to 600W (according to the online dashboard). Is that typical? Rated for 385 but give me 600? Seems unlikely and crazy...