Worst case scenario with the HSA plan you pay $105 * 26 = $2,730 in premiums plus $9,500 out-of-pocket max for a total of $12,230. Subtract a bit to account for the tax benefits of HSA contributions. If you're in the 25% bracket and can contribute to the HSA through payroll to avoid FICA, the maximum $6,750 HSA contribution saves you about $2,200 in taxes, bringing the total worst-case cost down to a hair over $10,000.
Worst case scenario with the HMO you pay $172.69 * 26 = $4,490 in premiums plus a $5,000 out-of-pocket max for a total of $9,490, about $500 less than the HSA plan.
Best case scenario, where nobody in your family needs to visit the doctor for non-preventive reasons, the HSA plan costs you $2,730 - $2,200 = $530 and the HMO plan costs you $4,490.
The HMO looks about $500 better in a terrible health year, while the HSA plan looks about $4,000 better in a perfect health year. Most years you'll fall somewhere in between. Take your own guesses about where you'll most likely fall on that spectrum and come to a decision.