This is a question for me but likely applies to others.

What if one would like to FIRE but really doesn't have enough to do so today based on current spending and a 4% SWR (I am more conservative than most on this board so I plan for 3% but the scenario below is based on 4% SWR to avoid that discussion)....but the trick is some of the spending is temporary but kind of long term due to children. I see my three choices as (1) keep stashing to get to fully cover based on SWR, (2) cover the short fall with part time work, or (c) take the leap and if it doesn't work well then go back to work or adjust and what not.

Here are the assumptions:

Investments: $1,000,000

Paid Off House: 176,000

Total Spending: $47,200

Base Spending: 40,000 - includes all expenses - house, food, travel, etc - not directly related to kids

- expectation is that costs for food and travel now being spent on kids will be

spent on us in future so this number stays the same.

Kid Spending: 7,200 - activities, clothing, school stuff, etc. - ie directly related and will go away

Time remaining for

Kid spending: 12 years

Also assume that the house will be sold in 13 years and replaced with a smaller/cheaper one at $117,000 (could be less), this will directly lower taxes by $2,000 a year (or more if move to a lower COL/tax area which is likely to be the case - property taxes now account for about 15% of total spending) so base spending will decline to $38,000 in today's dollars coupled with the $58,000 add to investments will yield another $2,300 per year based on 4% SWR so a $4300 annual gain. For this discussion, assume this is a given (ie a conservative assumption).

I am having trouble with the math and how it plays out but I think that if break it into its components such that $86,000 ($7200 x 12 years) goes into a separate account to fund the expected kid expenses and the balance ($914,000) is used to cover base spending at a higher than desired 4.4% SWR for 12 years and then down to 3.9% SWR of $972,000 ($38k spend on $972k ($914k initial plus $58k from house)).

Seems like it is close enough to do it especially because of option to reduce kid expenses if needed and other spendy expenses like travel and food if needed, and the kid expenses can easily be covered by part time lower wage work if needed.

What would you do? Should I be looking at it differently?

Se