Thanks for the input @terran I have a HDHP with an HSA. I believe that's the lowest premium plan my employer offers (although I haven't checked since I started working at this job). We max out the HSA every year and contribute to my 401(k) up to the match.
If the family glitch does go away, is the threshold for unaffordability for family insurance 9.78%? If so, I think my HSA contributions plus an increase in 401(k) contributions could bring my income after deductions down to $85,000 or so to get us under that unaffordability threshold. What kind of premium savings would we be looking at under the ACA in that case?
Yeah, I think affordability follows the same percentages as the subsidies, although you'll need to confirm that and also wait and see how/if the family glitch fix is implemented. For example, if you keep individual coverage, how will that interact with the cost and subsidies for coverage for your wife and kids? Affordability
depends on your income in relation to the
Federal Poverty Level.
Ignoring any differences to how the family glitch fix might be implemented and assuming the higher affordability percentages come back in 2023 then for a family of 4 the cost would be capped at 9.78% of
ACA countable income for income between $83,250 and $111,000. Depending on how much space you have remaining in your 401(k) and HSA and if you want to make traditional IRA contributions you might be able to get your income as low at 250% FPL which would cap affordability at 8.29%. I think that also gets you into cost sharing subsidy territory too.
You also might be able to get the cost down by signing up for a bronze plan since the subsidy will then pay more of the plan cost. I think that's usually not advised when you can get cost sharing subsidies since they only apply to silver plans (although, that might be a stretch, especially given my next comment about HSA eligibility, which is only available with bronze plans).
Remember that if you need a family HSA limit to get your income low enough to qualify that you'll also need to sign up for an HSA eligible ACA plan, which I think aren't always available and are usually more expensive than otherwise similar plans.