Author Topic: Estimating Social Security Benefits?  (Read 3741 times)

Joel

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Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« on: February 21, 2016, 04:03:27 PM »
How do you guys estimate what your social security benefits will be?

I recently received my social security statement saying I will receive x amount per month at the different ages. However, the problem with that figure is that it assumes I will make the same salary I am right now until I decide to retire. I may very well wait until 70 to receive social security, but I sure as hell will not be working at my current salary until that age.


Trip

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2016, 04:21:03 PM »
I am 25 now, and believe SS will likely be around in some capacity when I begin collecting. However, I like to maintain a margin of safety, so I do not count this in my calculations.

If I were to calculate an expected payout, I would probably use a calculator and assume a time-weighted average earnings that I expect and then multiply by .7 to add in a margin of safety.

PhysicianOnFIRE

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2016, 04:46:53 PM »
Justin @ Root of Good wrote a nice summary here:  http://rootofgood.com/early-retirement-social-security/

Joel

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2016, 04:59:55 PM »

Joel

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2016, 05:07:04 PM »
Justin @ Root of Good wrote a nice summary here:  http://rootofgood.com/early-retirement-social-security/

Thank you. That helps me understand the mechanics behind the calculation.

Joel

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2016, 05:35:10 PM »
The reason I was asking had to with some research I was doing with regards to utilizing traditional vs Roth retirement accounts.

fishnfool

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2016, 05:41:08 PM »
Go to their website and register, you can run estimates using the info they keep on your SS contribution and work history.

https://www.ssa.gov/

PhysicianOnFIRE

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2016, 06:44:03 PM »
Go to their website and register, you can run estimates using the info they keep on your SS contribution and work history.

https://www.ssa.gov/

Last time I logged in was months ago.  I recall being able to use the calculator to estimate your benefit if you keep working indefinitely, but I don't remember finding a way to stop contributing at a particular year.  Such a feature would obviously be beneficial for an aspiring early retiree. 

Does anyone know of another site / spreadsheet that does this? 

MDM

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2016, 07:08:37 PM »
Last time I logged in was months ago.  I recall being able to use the calculator to estimate your benefit if you keep working indefinitely, but I don't remember finding a way to stop contributing at a particular year.  Such a feature would obviously be beneficial for an aspiring early retiree. 

Does anyone know of another site / spreadsheet that does this?

See the 'SocialSecurity' tab in the case study spreadsheet.  Does that help?

I think the SS program does have the functionality you seek, but the spreadsheet might (or not - YMMV) be useful to understand the details.

Joel

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Re: Estimating Social Security Benefits?
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2016, 07:17:10 PM »
Go to their website and register, you can run estimates using the info they keep on your SS contribution and work history.

https://www.ssa.gov/

Last time I logged in was months ago.  I recall being able to use the calculator to estimate your benefit if you keep working indefinitely, but I don't remember finding a way to stop contributing at a particular year.  Such a feature would obviously be beneficial for an aspiring early retiree. 

Does anyone know of another site / spreadsheet that does this?

Correct. They provide an opportunity estimate if you make the same salary every year until you retire. But the page I posted above allows you to input the years, which I just adjusted the date of birth and age to be as if I'm 70 and retiring next year with my income history only. Worked to get a conservative minimum amount.