Help with new furnace

[MMMdude]

I've received a few quotes on a new furnace.  Generally all in the same ballpark.  The best of the bunch is offering the following:

York YP9C
MODULATING
97.5% EFF, 80K BTU
$3990
$200 less for a two stage

YORK TM9X
SINGLE STAGE WITH DC FAN
95.5% EFF, 80K
$3290

YORK TG95
"BASIC FURNACE" so i believe single stage and no dc fan
95.5% EFF, 80K
$2790

ADD $200 TO ALL OF THE ABOVE IF DECIDE ON LENNOX EQUIVALENTS

 Add $120 for Merv 10 filter box for all of above.

Reading differing opinions online re: modulating furnaces and perhaps too complex re: repairs down the road? He said virtually everyone goes with modulating now and only sells a few two stages all year.  I live in a very cold environment (-30, winter for 5 months of the year)

Questions:
-$120 worth it for 5 inch filter box versus just standard 1 inch?  I'm thinking yes on this one even though neither of us have issues with the air now
-$800 difference between 1 stage and modulating worth it?  My understanding is that savings on gas will be seen due to furnace's efficiency and not whether it is 1 or 2 stage vs modulating? 

In fact i'm kinda leaning to the one stage option as my existing furnace is one stage and we don't really have an issue with the 'yo yo' type heating.  Sure, it would be nice to have more consistent heating, but not sure it's $800 worth nice. 

FYI - I spend about $1800 on nat gas per year (after excluding delivery charges and other fees) if that helps with payback calcs

[Thegoblinchief]

The wider filter box filters will last longer, but there are higher allergen count filters available in the 1-inch thickness. Unless you run the cheapest furnace filters possible, you will save money with the longer lifespan of the thicker filters.

I would personally go with the simpler furnace, but interested to know if others will disagree.

[data.Damnation]

How much are your energy bills every year? What is your bill in January and in July? Figure out how much you spend on heating your house, then figure out how long the payoff will be for the more efficient furnace.

[MMMdude]

Energy bills are approx $2800 per year (nat gas and power)

All of the furnace options are 'high efficiency' as in Canada the gov't has outlawed anything not considered HE.

ONe of the options does not have DC fan so would use quite abit more energy to run.  I've discounted that one. 

Next one at $3200 has DC fan but single stage burner (so it's either on full blast or off).  For $800 more, again DC fan but has modulating burner in that the furnace is on all the time but burns less energy (thing of a car - smoothly accelerating versus stomp on gas pedal then off gas pedal).  I just don't know if i'll ever get pay back of the $800 difference????

[MMMdude]

The wider filter box filters will last longer, but there are higher allergen count filters available in the 1-inch thickness. Unless you run the cheapest furnace filters possible, you will save money with the longer lifespan of the thicker filters.

I would personally go with the simpler furnace, but interested to know if others will disagree.

I think I agree on going with the bigger filter.  Just have to change once a year is what they are saying.  More expensive and harder to find, although multiple places to find online now.  Big boxes are starting to carry them too

[Thegoblinchief]

I think I agree on going with the bigger filter.  Just have to change once a year is what they are saying.  More expensive and harder to find, although multiple places to find online now.  Big boxes are starting to carry them too

Mine is 16"x25"x4" and have had zero issues finding it. Even the smaller hardware stores have this particular size. We get ~9 months or so, but I run the furnace fan 100% of the time to avoid stale/musty air in the basement.