Does it make sense to get solar panels in California now?

[jamesbond007]

I am thinking of getting solar panels. I live in PG&E territory and on Tiered E-1 rate plan I am being charged $0.28/kwh. I get medical baseline so my daily allowance in Tier-1 is about 26.9kwh. Historically, my average consumption has been around 300kwh/month on average. I have an electric car that I am charging at home these days and I anticipate another 200kwh per month worst case. Adding a 10% overhead, I will be within my daily Tier-1 allowance.


Now the question is, is it worth getting solar? Sun Power has quoted almost $38,000 for a 4.9kw system with a 13.3kwh battery before the 26% federal credit. At this rate, it will be about 14.8 years before I breakeven assuming PG&E keep charging me the same amount for that many years. Plus, I still must pay PG&E for the connection, which is about $10 per month with NEM 2.0. If I cannot get it done before the potential NEM 3.0 then the situation could be even worse.


Is it worth getting solar? If I do get solar, then I will purchase space heaters and move to a tankless water heater from gas to save some money on gas.

[yachi]

I think that battery is obscuring what would be a sure thing.  I bet it's at least $10k before Sun Power's markup.  It might be as much as half of your total cost.  Maybe battery backup is worth that much to you, but it's obscuring the breakeven period of the solar panels.

[bryan995]

I think you'd want to move to some sort of a TOU plan, for super-offpeak rates for EV charging.

We are on SDGE with EV-TOU5 and pay 0.09c/kwh from midnight-6am.  Peak then becomes more expensive ($0.55c/kwh) but then we get credits via NEM at that rate and pull from batteries to 'peak-shave'.

Our home came with 4kW of sunpower panels and we recently added 8kW additional + 2 powerwalls for $34,000 - $9,000 tax credit through tesla directly.
$25,000 all in financed at 0.99% for 10 years.

12kW total panels gives us ~80kw/day in the summer and 40kw/day in the winter.

I'd get some additional quotes and absolutely keep track of nem2 vs nem3 dates.

[uniwelder]

I think that battery is obscuring what would be a sure thing.  I bet it's at least $10k before Sun Power's markup.  It might be as much as half of your total cost.  Maybe battery backup is worth that much to you, but it's obscuring the breakeven period of the solar panels.

I don't understand why battery backup should be necessary since OP has an electric car.  Not trying to by snotty-- I don't know why its not more common for this type of hookup.  I know a guy that has enabled his Leaf to power back to his house, but it was DIY type.  Is there something against current code for this?

[bryan995]

For us, the battery enables us to completely avoid peak-rates.  During that time we sell all solar to the grid at 0.55c/kw and run the house off the batteries.  Since peak is 4-9pm, you can actually place more panel on the west side to optimize for later production.  It has added some value, though it is not as efficient ROI wise as solar alone.

It also has the intangible benefit of being completely self sufficient during any sort of short or long-term outage.  Panels don't work if the grid is down and you do not have a battery.

[Dicey]

Lol, we must be in the same vicinity. We have PG&E and medical devices (c-paps). The extra T1 allotment really makes solar a difficult decision. We also own homes in the Desert. So far, after extensive research, we've concluded that it doesn't make sense yet financially. Ecologically there are some obvious advantages. We want to go solar, but the numbers just don't work yet. Oh, and PG&E has recently proposed a surcharge for homes with solar. I believe they have proposed $75/month. Rat bastards.

To us, the elephant in the room is the potential damage to the roofs. The Desert roofs are tile, so even more risky than average. The roof on our Bay Area home is at most halfway through its lifespan and we don't want to hasten its demise.

For us it's a reluctant, "Not right now."

[yachi]

I think that battery is obscuring what would be a sure thing.  I bet it's at least $10k before Sun Power's markup.  It might be as much as half of your total cost.  Maybe battery backup is worth that much to you, but it's obscuring the breakeven period of the solar panels.

I don't understand why battery backup should be necessary since OP has an electric car.  Not trying to by snotty-- I don't know why its not more common for this type of hookup.  I know a guy that has enabled his Leaf to power back to his house, but it was DIY type.  Is there something against current code for this?

It seems Tesla has been voiding warrantees on cars that were used to power houses, but I don't think electrical code looks at it any different than they do a generator.  To do it safely, you need a disconnect so you don't backfeed the grid from your house.  Without it, you could electrocute linemen working to restore power.

Strictly economically, the battery should be compared to other solutions: buying a gas generator for power outages, replacing all refrigerator contents when the power is out too long, renting a hotel room with power when the power is out.  In my area, my house hasn't lost power for more than 4 hours in 11 years I've lived here, so I have little interest in spending money up front to prepare for power loss contingencies.

Peak shaving with battery power is an interesting angle.  I'm surprised utilities haven't implement their own battery power storage with bryan995's numbers.  At a $0.46/kwh differential between peak and non-peak, you should be able to make some money.  Take the Tesla Powerwall, 13.5kWh capacity, warranty for 37.8 mWh when used for non-solar demand.  If you assume it immediately loses all it's non-warranted capacity, and ceased to function once it's used 37.8 mWh, you should be able net $17,400 over 10 years peak shaving for SDGE.  I saw a cost of $10,500 for an installed powerwall that would make this profitable enough.

A warning on peak shaving: It used to be mid-day was peak hours because of building cooling loads, but that's no longer the case due to the amount of solar power being generated.  If everyone jumps on the above powerwall installation, the delta between peak and non-peak charges will reduce just as the solar power removed the mid-day peak.

[jamesbond007]

Lol, we must be in the same vicinity. We have PG&E and medical devices (c-paps). The extra T1 allotment really makes solar a difficult decision. We also own homes in the Desert. So far, after extensive research, we've concluded that it doesn't make sense yet financially. Ecologically there are some obvious advantages. We want to go solar, but the numbers just don't work yet. Oh, and PG&E has recently proposed a surcharge for homes with solar. I believe they have proposed $75/month. Rat bastards.

To us, the elephant in the room is the potential damage to the roofs. The Desert roofs are tile, so even more risky than average. The roof on our Bay Area home is at most halfway through its lifespan and we don't want to hasten its demise.

For us it's a reluctant, "Not right now."

I am in the Bay Area. I have been wanting to get solar for a long time and I finally managed to convince my HOA. Now PG&E throws a fit and CPUC bows down to the overlords. Ugh.....Hopefully it doesn't get passed the way it was proposed.

[gooki]

Price seems about double what it should be. Go get a quote from Tesla for a similar sized system.

[jamesbond007]

Price seems about double what it should be. Go get a quote from Tesla for a similar sized system.

Tesla is cheap. But the only stories I hear from other customers are horror stories. So, I am not sure. Tesla was my first preference.

[Abe]

Price seems about double what it should be. Go get a quote from Tesla for a similar sized system.

Tesla is cheap. But the only stories I hear from other customers are horror stories. So, I am not sure. Tesla was my first preference.

You get what you pay for with a Tesla install. Once they get around to it, the system is reliable (like almost all installs). The getting there part is a slog. That's true of most large installers. Ask any of your neighbors who they went with, and what headaches were involved.

Sunpower is usually the most expensive. Get a quote from a regional installer.

Syonyk will tell you to do it yourself. If you are at all handy with tools and electrical wiring, consider this route. It won't get around the high battery cost, but will save quite a lot anyway.

[alsoknownasDean]

Seems VERY expensive.

4.9kW of panels is maybe 15 panels, so maybe $3-4k in panels, plus $1500-2000ish for a decent inverter, and the battery is what, $10-15K, plus a couple grand for installation?