I've been playing around with some numbers and I want to make sure I am not missing anything obvious. I'll keep it high level, but can fill in details if needed.
Let's say current savings, plus current savings rate, yields $2.5M in 13 years.
General SWR rules:
4% = $100K/year
3% = $75K/year
cfiresim:
If I run a scenario of a retirement year of 2028 and a retirement end year of 2074 and put in $100K/year (inflation adjusted) spending plan, I get a 100% success rate. Same with $150K/year spending. $160K/yr yields a 97.65% success rate.
Same result if I do the scenario using SWR instead of flat rates. For example, I can get 100% success with 8% of portfolio with no less than $100K.
Q1: Is this simply because historical gains of the stock market exceed the general 3 and 4% rules?
Q2: Assuming I can live on between $75K and $100K per year (facepunch if I can't right?), what additional variables should I be changing in cfiresim, if any?
Q3: I thought I remember somebody (Sol maybe) explaining that you really do not need a 100% success rate in cfiresim. At what point is one simply saving "too much" and merely adding to the cushion?
Q4: Is it really this simple?
Q5: What am I missing?
Apologies in advance if these are dumb questions. We've just made great strides in slashing our spending and driving our savings up over the past few months and I want to make sure I am not missing something.