Do you have a pre-tariffs shopping list?

[neo von retorch]

An all out trade-war that involves domestic manufacturers doing mass-layoffs would be a big political football.  Most companies avoid sticking their neck out politically unless necessary.  This would cross the line to necessary for some of them.

Yeah, but that is literally the promise Trump made while campaigning and a part of what got him elected.  I wouldn't be slightly surprised if he follows through on this mandate that the American people gave him.

There is no "mandate", he didn't even crack 50% of the popular vote.  They barely hold the House.

They have the senate, the house, and the presidency.  This 'democratic' system doesn't give a fuck about the popular vote.  They got a mandate from the only voters in the US who matter - swing state voters.

And at that, just ~115,000 people (in 3 of the swing states) could've voted a different way and it'd be a very different election result.

Latest irrelevant popular vote totals (source Bloomberg):
DT 77,827,849
KH 75,211,945

Just how big was Donald Trump’s election victory? (BBC)

[GuitarStv]

And at that, just ~115,000 people (in 3 of the swing states) could've voted a different way and it'd be a very different election result.

Well . . . yeah.  They are the only votes that matter, so a hundred thousand of them is an election winning/losing pretty big deal.

[jim555]

They have the senate, the house, and the presidency.  This 'democratic' system doesn't give a fuck about the popular vote.  They got a mandate from the only voters in the US who matter - swing state voters.

Squeaking out a narrow win is far from a mandate. 

[GuitarStv]

They have the senate, the house, and the presidency.  This 'democratic' system doesn't give a fuck about the popular vote.  They got a mandate from the only voters in the US who matter - swing state voters.

Squeaking out a narrow win is far from a mandate.

It's only squeaking out a narrow win if you count the votes that don't matter.  This is a common mistake made by people who think that they live in a democracy but where the candidate with fewer total votes can easily win.  You need to pay attention to the votes that matter.  The ones that don't matter can be safely removed from the equation.

[NorCal]

They have the senate, the house, and the presidency.  This 'democratic' system doesn't give a fuck about the popular vote.  They got a mandate from the only voters in the US who matter - swing state voters.

Squeaking out a narrow win is far from a mandate.

It's only squeaking out a narrow win if you count the votes that don't matter.  This is a common mistake made by people who think that they live in a democracy but where the candidate with fewer total votes can easily win.  You need to pay attention to the votes that matter.  The ones that don't matter can be safely removed from the equation.

Every winning party ever claims a broad mandate.  Every losing party ever claims there is no mandate.  The entire idea is silly.

Political parties in the US involve coalitions of groups with some commonality, but also widely divergent views on some topics.  The fossil fuel interests in the Republican party have very little in common with evangelicals, which have little in common with the crypto bros.  There are similar divisions in the Democratic party.

[lifeisshort123]

I am not buying anything out of fear related to these tariffs...

If I were to be buying something out of fear related to this election, it would be citizenship somewhere else so as to not be impacted by the uncertainty...

However, in all seriousness, buying things to stock up based on the possibility a new president may impose some tariffs (and at the same time completely eliminate and/or reduce other tax burdens) seems silly to me.... Just calm down, and don't worry. It will be okay.  Breathe and believe....

[kite]

Aren’t we mustachian???

For the same reason I don’t buy food in bulk at warehouse stores, I’m not buying small appliances, socks or toothpaste for use far into the future with today’s budget.
That’s stupid.
It’s market timing for lemmings.

You don’t need to buy anything.
If you think you do, try to borrow; get on Craigslist or at GoodWill; or better yet, ask on your local BuyNothing group on Facebook. Someone is dying to be rid of exactly what you think you need.

This time next year, and the year after, storage units will be auctioned for non-payment and all those treasures purchased in anticipation of threatened tariffs will come up for sale for pennies on the dollar in the original package. You won’t need it then, either.

[achvfi]

Tariffs or not there is no point in buying something before you want or need it.

[SilentC]

Aren’t we mustachian???

For the same reason I don’t buy food in bulk at warehouse stores, I’m not buying small appliances, socks or toothpaste for use far into the future with today’s budget.
That’s stupid.
It’s market timing for lemmings.

You don’t need to buy anything.
If you think you do, try to borrow; get on Craigslist or at GoodWill; or better yet, ask on your local BuyNothing group on Facebook. Someone is dying to be rid of exactly what you think you need.

This time next year, and the year after, storage units will be auctioned for non-payment and all those treasures purchased in anticipation of threatened tariffs will come up for sale for pennies on the dollar in the original package. You won’t need it then, either.

I buy stuff in bulk at Costco and make marvelous investment returns on it. Several thousands a year saved at Costco vs Kroger, Albertsons etc.   But I’m kind of stoopid and perhaps a market timing lemming who has the audacity to forecast what I will need three months down the road.

[FINate]

Aren’t we mustachian???

For the same reason I don’t buy food in bulk at warehouse stores, I’m not buying small appliances, socks or toothpaste for use far into the future with today’s budget.
That’s stupid.
It’s market timing for lemmings.

You don’t need to buy anything.
If you think you do, try to borrow; get on Craigslist or at GoodWill; or better yet, ask on your local BuyNothing group on Facebook. Someone is dying to be rid of exactly what you think you need.

This time next year, and the year after, storage units will be auctioned for non-payment and all those treasures purchased in anticipation of threatened tariffs will come up for sale for pennies on the dollar in the original package. You won’t need it then, either.

No, it's not. Market timing is specific to investments, whereas what we're talking about here are consumables and durable goods. No one is proposing buying in bulk now with the intention of reselling later.

If these are things folks are going to use anyway, then there's no harm stocking up a little bit.

We keep our vehicles a minimum of 10 years, so pulling a purchase forward by 3-6 months is negligible. For us it is less about money and much more about avoiding supply chain disruptions. We would normally purchase a 2-3 year old vehicle to avoid the first few years of depreciation, however many pandemic era vehicles have reliability issues due to labor and parts shortages. I'd rather just get a new vehicle now rather than run the risk of another run on vehicles, even if the odds of this are low. Again, just not worth waiting 3-6 months to see what happens.

The induction range was 1/3 off, seems like end-of-year holiday period is a good time to find deals on appliances. Again, we knew we needed it within the next year or so (was having issues), so why wait when the one we want is in stock and on sale? After cooking Thanksgiving dinner with it my only regret is not going to induction sooner, prefer it even over gas.   

[jpdx]

If there is any consensus in this thread it's that we don't know if the tariffs will be slightly bad or really bad. Either way, it's reasonable to move some large purchases forward. But socks and tea? Nah.

I've made a few planned consumer electronics purchases, For example, I replaced my dying TV which was from when George W Bush was president.

[NorCal]

If there is any consensus in this thread it's that we don't know if the tariffs will be slightly bad or really bad. Either way, it's reasonable to move some large purchases forward. But socks and tea? Nah.

I've made a few planned consumer electronics purchases, For example, I replaced my dying TV which was from when George W Bush was president.

I read a good article this morning trying to tease out the most likely scenario.  All I'm seeing is the left is catastrophising about how tariffs will decimate the economy and livelihoods while the right is pretending they can meaningfully change global trade without economic pain.  Neither are convincing.

While the article below doesn't come to any firm conclusions, it's at least a more level-headed approach to the range of likely outcomes.

https://open.substack.com/pub/adamtooze/p/chartbook-337-the-stakes-in-the-struggle?r=17ml74&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[geekette]

I've made a few planned consumer electronics purchases, For example, I replaced my dying TV which was from when George W Bush was president.

We have a W Bush era TV too!  It's still doing great, which is good because that 46" 1080P JVC TV cost over $2500!

[ChpBstrd]

Aren’t we mustachian???

Absolutely. Here is MMM talking about bulk-buying things when they are on sale - in this particular case, food:

For items with a long shelf life, this can lead to some interesting results, like the time I bought 20 jars of Classico pasta sauce because it had dropped from $3.50 to $1.50 per jar, or 20 boxes of Quaker Oat Squares cereal because it had temporarily been marked down from $4.50 to $1.00 per box. The cashiers raised an eyebrow each time, but each of these purchases saved me about $50 over the regular price for these products… and gave me a nice inventory at home to help reduce future trips to the store.

I like to think of it as a little algorithm:

    If a food is overpriced, buy zero or the minimum possible amount you can live with
    If a food is regular price, buy an amount to last until your next grocery trip (minimum 1 week supply)
    If a food is underpriced, buy at least enough to last until the next expected sale at this level (4 weeks?)
    If a food is drastically underpriced, buy a near-infinite amount, limited only by shelf life of food and available stock on shelves. If Bananas go to 1 cent per pound, you can’t really benefit aside from maybe freezing a few. But if my favorite cashews and almonds mix dropped to an all-time low, I’d probably buy at least a year’s supply (twenty of the two-pound jars or more).

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/08/23/grocery-shopping-with-your-middle-finger/

If there is any consensus in this thread it's that we don't know if the tariffs will be slightly bad or really bad. Either way, it's reasonable to move some large purchases forward. But socks and tea? Nah.

I think the risk of tariffs raising prices is very high, and less uncertain than some people are suggesting. There's plenty of evidence suggesting it will happen, including one-party control of government and the president-elect's post-election tariff-enthusiasm. It is essentially a pre-announced policy, though it will likely be implemented in a series of steps. The details are unpredictable, but the direction is fairly clear.

Price adjustments or pre-tariff shortages of certain things could come relatively immediately. Supply chains only have a few weeks' inventory of most items, and retailers could/should preemptively raise prices of their current inventory to cover the higher cost of replacing them.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting anything on the shopping list that you wouldn't be purchasing anyway in the next 2-5 years. But I am suggesting our reaction to a foreseeable increase in prices in the near future should be similar to MMM's reaction to groceries temporarily being on sale. And I'm suggesting the costs of replacing certain worn-out things now rather than later may be less than the sum of the expected value of tariffs plus the added utility.

[Sandi_k]

I've made a few planned consumer electronics purchases, For example, I replaced my dying TV which was from when George W Bush was president.

We have a W Bush era TV too!  It's still doing great, which is good because that 46" 1080P JVC TV cost over $2500!

Us too. ;) We purchased it after Xmas in 2008, when I had a spinal fusion surgery, and I couldn't do much other than watch TV. Still working fine.

[GuitarStv]

I've made a few planned consumer electronics purchases, For example, I replaced my dying TV which was from when George W Bush was president.

We have a W Bush era TV too!  It's still doing great, which is good because that 46" 1080P JVC TV cost over $2500!

Us too. ;) We purchased it after Xmas in 2008, when I had a spinal fusion surgery, and I couldn't do much other than watch TV. Still working fine.

We do too!

I see no reason to replace it.  It was expensive when we bought it, and it still works great.

[ChpBstrd]

Early evidence is arriving that more people are thinking about pulling ahead purchases:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-uncertainty-could-be-driving-car-buyers-to-act-now-cox-says-140002134.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nj-companies-stockpiling-imports-avoid-093235445.html

Could be a big 4th quarter, but it'll be borrowing growth from the future .

[Laura33]

I have been avoiding this issue, because (1) what actually happens is often far from what is promised, (2) it strikes me as a potential overreaction that's been triggered by a bunch of different fears, and "massive tariffs!!" is something people can attach that general, amorphous fear/anger to; and (3) if everyone's running around buying stuff because prices are going to rise with tariffs, then I'm assuming prices are going to rise immediately in response to the demand, and so I've likely missed the boat on the best deals.

Turns out my husband went out and bought a crate of imported whisky to stock up before any potential tariffs hit.  Not sure how much he thinks it's smart, pre-tariff shopping vs. an excuse to buy more whisky.  ;-)

[use2betrix]

Inflation has killed me far more in buying power the last 2 years than I have any expectation of the next 4 years. I can cut spending on import goods much easier than just like.. cancelling homeowners insurance.

[OzzieandHarriet]

I did buy a new laptop, but it's still sitting in the box because I've been too busy to set it up. I went ahead with it because I found it at a good price, and I knew I would need to upgrade pretty soon anyway.

[Raenia]

DH did buy a new laptop as well, but to be fair, he'd been talking about needing a new one for at least a year now and had been putting it off. It was more than time to pull the trigger on that. If it means we avoid any new tariffs, that's a bonus.

[Tigerpine]

The threat of impending tariffs was enough to push us to finally get the chest freezer we've been talking about ever since 2020.

[41_swish]

I did end up biting the bullet and buying a set of winter tires for my car. I have been meaning to do this, and I have been budgeting for it for a while, too. Dedicated winters make a world of difference.

[GuitarStv]

Dedicated winters make a world of difference.

So true.  I have yet to find a 4 wheel drive SUV with all seasons that can handle on snow or ice half as well as a Toyota Corolla with winter tires.

[41_swish]

Dedicated winters make a world of difference.

So true.  I have yet to find a 4 wheel drive SUV with all seasons that can handle on snow or ice half as well as a Toyota Corolla with winter tires.

I used to have a Subaru Forester with all weathers and my mom has a Rav 4 with all seasons and my old Camry with dedicated winters performs better on everything, but very deep snow.

[ChpBstrd]

DH did buy a new laptop as well, but to be fair, he'd been talking about needing a new one for at least a year now and had been putting it off. It was more than time to pull the trigger on that. If it means we avoid any new tariffs, that's a bonus.

I did buy a new laptop, but it's still sitting in the box because I've been too busy to set it up. I went ahead with it because I found it at a good price, and I knew I would need to upgrade pretty soon anyway.

I bought Dear Spouse a macbook pro with 16gb of RAM and an M1 chip, used with 180 battery cycles, for $500. I told Dear Spouse "this will have to last you the next 8-10 years, so take good care of it!" With these specs, and our low requirements, it should do for that long! Any advice on macbook durability is welcome.

I also bought brand new tires for one of our old cars for $510.

In the meantime, I'm making arrangements to have a roof put on the house next week at $10-11k.

I'm looking to pick up an extra set (or two) of athletic shoes, as these only last me about 6-12 months per pair. However, Academy has not had any sales on my preferred Brooks or Merrils. Also keeping an eye open for a clearance deal on Doc Martins.

[GilesMM]

Dedicated winters make a world of difference.

So true.  I have yet to find a 4 wheel drive SUV with all seasons that can handle on snow or ice half as well as a Toyota Corolla with winter tires.

Michelin Cross Climate 2 are amazing.  Full traction tires that are also great year round.

[geekette]

We have a 15 year old Samsung (ugh) fridge that has icing problems, and is a general PITA.  I don't want to buy a new one, but it may be time.

[NorCal]

We have a 15 year old Samsung (ugh) fridge that has icing problems, and is a general PITA.  I don't want to buy a new one, but it may be time.

While I generally disagree with the premise of pre-tariff buying, appliances is a place where it probably makes sense.

China pretty much has a lock on global appliance manufacturing. I think it’s foolish to predict much related to Mexico/Canada trade due to the variables involved.

But China tariffs are fairly certain, appliance manufacturing is fairly centralized, and they’re big ticket items.

[roomtempmayo]

Little anecdote: This morning I was going to make crepes.  The recipe called for OO flour, so I dug out my cache of it hidden in the back of the cupboard.  The one I mail ordered from King Arthur during the depths of the pandemic when flour was in short supply.  The one that expired in 2021.  And yup, the one that was all moldy and went straight in the compost today.

[rosarugosa]

We were due for new phones.  I had been procrastinating because it's a pain in the ass to switch over, but I went ahead and pulled the trigger.  We use relatively inexpensive phones, but still not totally cheap so I'd rather spend less than more.

[41_swish]

We were due for new phones.  I had been procrastinating because it's a pain in the ass to switch over, but I went ahead and pulled the trigger.  We use relatively inexpensive phones, but still not totally cheap so I'd rather spend less than more.

I always buy last year's model when I do upgrade. It has most of the same features for a good chunk less. I am not a power user so a model one- or two-years old works just fine.

[OzzieandHarriet]

Little anecdote: This morning I was going to make crepes.  The recipe called for OO flour, so I dug out my cache of it hidden in the back of the cupboard.  The one I mail ordered from King Arthur during the depths of the pandemic when flour was in short supply.  The one that expired in 2021.  And yup, the one that was all moldy and went straight in the compost today.

I recommend always storing flour in the freezer. It won't keep forever, but it will stay fresh much longer (and you won't get any little critters growing in it).

[Cassie]

I had my mechanic check my 2008 Toyota Corolla and it only needed brakes. It only has 72k miles and at 70 may be my last car. He said I will probably still have the car in 10 years. I decided to buy a year’s worth of paper products, cleaning supplies, toiletries, etc when they were on sale because it’s all things I use and prices won’t be going down. Being one person I easily had the room to store it. I have never done that before and it’s nice not having to buy that stuff on a regular basis like normal.

[ChpBstrd]

Looks like the nay-sayers may be right. Trump is already backpedaling on his tariff promises.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/trump-reportedly-considering-important-alteration-to-tariff-plans.html

[41_swish]

Looks like the nay-sayers may be right. Trump is already backpedaling on his tariff promises.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/trump-reportedly-considering-important-alteration-to-tariff-plans.html

So, all he does is say one thing and do another? Feels just like the first go around haha

[NorCal]

Looks like the nay-sayers may be right. Trump is already backpedaling on his tariff promises.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/06/trump-reportedly-considering-important-alteration-to-tariff-plans.html

My guess is that they're planning to bring tariffs into this mega-reconciliation bill that's been hitting the news.  Since reconciliation has to be budget neutral, they need to find lots of revenue to both pay for their spending priorities (border, etc) and extending the prior Trump tax cuts (hundreds of billions a year), as well as additional tax cuts.

Since this bill has to be both budget neutral AND have nearly zero Republican defections, my guess is that they might get to tens-of-billions in tariffs.  It will be enough to impact specific industries, but not enough to dramatically rewire global trade.  Politically powerful industries like automaking will likely be largely unaffected outside of maybe steel prices (another politically powerful industry that likes tariffs). 

[bacchi]

He denies that he's backpedaling.

The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News.

[reeshau]

He denies that he's backpedaling.

The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News.

Unfortunately, now Trump's hackles are up.  What was probably a normal "person with knowledge" background conversation on efforts to blunt the worst now has him entrenched.

[ChpBstrd]

He denies that he's backpedaling.

The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News.

Unfortunately, now Trump's hackles are up.  What was probably a normal "person with knowledge" background conversation on efforts to blunt the worst now has him entrenched.

It's a fair question whether his words are entrenched or his actions are entrenched.

I think it's politically consistent enough for Trump to say blanket tariffs starting in January won't happen, but that they will happen eventually during his administration. So the "fake news" part of the WaPo report was the implication that they'd be permanently scaled back, when in fact Trump has merely spread them over a period of time to allow for negotiations.... yea... that. Nothing to do with the advisors nervously looking at Core PCE being stuck in the 2.7% to 2.8% range for months and thinking about the sudden addition of 3-5% to that.

My pulled-ahead purchases so far include:

-a new roof and lumber for a major exterior remod
-illegal immigrant labor to perform the remod
-tires, which were needed anyway, but not yet critical
-a laptop computer (used, but still)
-tools and materials for future projects
-a 5g iphone off of ebay
-various consumables like light bulbs, fridge filters, towels, sheets, etc.

Not yet, but still need to purchase:

-12v batteries for the cars
-more building materials
-house paint
-shoes

So I've spent maybe $30k in the past two months, mostly on stuff that needed to happen anyway. The pulled ahead portion of this, which I might otherwise have done six months from now, was maybe $800.

[roomtempmayo]

He denies that he's backpedaling.

The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News.

Unfortunately, now Trump's hackles are up.  What was probably a normal "person with knowledge" background conversation on efforts to blunt the worst now has him entrenched.

It's a fair question whether his words are entrenched or his actions are entrenched.

I think it's politically consistent enough for Trump to say blanket tariffs starting in January won't happen, but that they will happen eventually during his administration.

I think Trump's instincts are performative enough to resist being hijacked by policy.

The tariffs can't be bundled into "one big, beautiful bill" and passed in April.  To do that would put them in law, reduce his control, and take them off of the front page.  For his purposes, they need to be a slow drip for years to dominate the news cycle as an executive action, not a law.  What's important to him is that we're talking about tariffs, not that we actually have tariffs.

The same is true of immigration.  Actually doing a mass deportation undermines the performance.  We'll get a steady drip of immigration is a problem stories followed by Trump did something stories.  Rinse and repeat.

Nothing will happen quickly.  We're in for a four year long slow play.

[reeshau]

He denies that he's backpedaling.

The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong. The Washington Post knows it's wrong. It's just another example of Fake News.

Unfortunately, now Trump's hackles are up.  What was probably a normal "person with knowledge" background conversation on efforts to blunt the worst now has him entrenched.

It's a fair question whether his words are entrenched or his actions are entrenched.

I think it's politically consistent enough for Trump to say blanket tariffs starting in January won't happen, but that they will happen eventually during his administration.

I think Trump's instincts are performative enough to resist being hijacked by policy.

The tariffs can't be bundled into "one big, beautiful bill" and passed in April.  To do that would put them in law, reduce his control, and take them off of the front page.  For his purposes, they need to be a slow drip for years to dominate the news cycle as an executive action, not a law.  What's important to him is that we're talking about tariffs, not that we actually have tariffs.

The same is true of immigration.  Actually doing a mass deportation undermines the performance.  We'll get a steady drip of immigration is a problem stories followed by Trump did something stories.  Rinse and repeat.

Nothing will happen quickly.  We're in for a four year long slow play.

I think you are spot on, for his personal motivations.  This is a guy who would leave his box at Madison Square Garden at halftime, just to walk the hallways and be seen.  Primary among his pathologies is a need for attention.

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

[roomtempmayo]

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

I expect the first order of business being to stoke all manner of theories about how he could be reelected, so as not to appear a lame duck.

[GuitarStv]

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

I expect the first order of business being to stoke all manner of theories about how he could be reelected, so as not to appear a lame duck.

Yeah, I'm surprised that people think this will be Trump's last term.

[OzzieandHarriet]

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

I expect the first order of business being to stoke all manner of theories about how he could be reelected, so as not to appear a lame duck.

Yeah, I'm surprised that people think this will be Trump's last term.

The possibilities are frightening.

[41_swish]

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

I expect the first order of business being to stoke all manner of theories about how he could be reelected, so as not to appear a lame duck.

Yeah, I'm surprised that people think this will be Trump's last term.

The possibilities are frightening.

The United States is going to become a monarchy and Trump will rule until he dies. His kids will then become the heir to his thrown.

[geekette]

His kids will then become the heir to his thrown.

I see what you did there.

[ChpBstrd]

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

I expect the first order of business being to stoke all manner of theories about how he could be reelected, so as not to appear a lame duck.

Yeah, I'm surprised that people think this will be Trump's last term.

The possibilities are frightening.

Well, the Dems are still toast. They show no signs of having learned anything from the past 9 years or escaping their own mental traps. I'm still seeing talk about media strategy and making more media, like it's 1995 or something. The depth of the loss and the problem has not yet sunk in.

[Sibley]

What I can't see at the moment is what he does as a lame duck.  For any other President, the second term is the hardest, because they don't have election coattails to promise.  But he has clearly affected elections even while not in office, by promoting primary challenges.  Is his plan for Presidential retirement something like how he acted in 2021-2024?

I expect the first order of business being to stoke all manner of theories about how he could be reelected, so as not to appear a lame duck.

Yeah, I'm surprised that people think this will be Trump's last term.

The possibilities are frightening.

Well, the Dems are still toast. They show no signs of having learned anything from the past 9 years or escaping their own mental traps. I'm still seeing talk about media strategy and making more media, like it's 1995 or something. The depth of the loss and the problem has not yet sunk in.

All the Dems in their 80s won't retire. Of course they don't get it.

[41_swish]

What do you mean? Do you think they will just work forever?