Author Topic: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?  (Read 4626 times)

FuckRx

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do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« on: July 25, 2014, 12:11:43 PM »

I tried imagining myself retired today at 36 and I realized that regardless I would still want to continue working. In my line of work if I'm not working a few hours every week I'll lose my skills as a doctor and I really love what I do.

So here is my plan, I have about 270k saved up, mostly in tax-deferred accounts. I work another 5 years (in order to vest in my pension) and should be able to get that number up to 800k (60+ work weeks). Then I leave that 800k alone to ferment in my various retirement accounts without adding to it. After 5 years I work only enough to cover my daily living expenses (2-3k/mo right now).

I can work a little extra for a few months if I decide to save enough to take an extended trip somewhere. But I never touch the 800k. By 65 I would get a pension from my current work worth about 40k/yr in today's dollars, I would get some SS and I would have medicare. I'm guessing that the 800k will grow to ..... 2mill by that time?

I'm 36
single
rent 900/mo
student loans 600/mo (95k balance 2.75%)
no car payments
1,500/mo for all other expenses
total expenses: 3k/mo (rent,SL,expenses)

Cheddar Stacker

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2014, 12:58:45 PM »
Sounds like a solid plan to me, but I think you might be underestimating that $2Mill.

If you assume a 5% return from 41 years old to 65 years old you will have $2,580,080.
6% = 3,239,148
7% = 4,057,894
8% = 5,072,945
9% = 6,328,867
10%= 7,879,786

None of that is inflation adjusted, but I think this will provide plenty of safety margin in addition to your SS and pension.

Now I need to go run some similar scenarios for my own 401k. Thanks for the motivation!

Numbers Man

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2014, 01:52:00 PM »
Sounds like a solid plan as long as you stay single. Sometimes spouses and girl friends can be high maintenance, lol. What I'm trying to say is that you need to add the "married factor" into the equation and hopefully hospitals allow part time Doctors.

frugalnacho

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2014, 02:11:21 PM »
Sounds like a solid plan as long as you stay single. Sometimes spouses and girl friends can be high maintenance, lol. What I'm trying to say is that you need to add the "married factor" into the equation and hopefully hospitals allow part time Doctors.

This reminds me of a scene from the cosby show.  Cliff was having a budget/money discussion with Theo about moving out on his own.  Cliff would pose a problem and grab a chunk of money from theo such as "you are going to need to eat", and Theo would reply with something like "ill eat bologna sandwiches" and grabs a portion of the money back.  It goes back and forth several times until Cliff asks if Theo plans to have a girlfriend.  When he says yes cliff just smiles and grabs the whole stash out of his hand.  I didn't really care for or watch the cosby show that often, but for some reason that scene has stuck with me. 

FuckRx

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2014, 02:12:19 PM »

thanks for posting the numbers big cheese! that's very helpful.
i'm really glad to hear that this is a feasible plant.
so yea the significant other factor... well after coming on this site i have realized there are a lot of frugal women out there and many who will put us dudes to shame so i'm holding out to meet someone like that.


Numbers Man

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2014, 02:13:02 PM »
frugalnacho - I saw that episode and have quoted it many times. That's my favorite scene from the Cosby show.

Numbers Man

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2014, 02:14:23 PM »

thanks for posting the numbers big cheese! that's very helpful.
i'm really glad to hear that this is a feasible plant.
so yea the significant other factor... well after coming on this site i have realized there are a lot of frugal women out there and many who will put us dudes to shame so i'm holding out to meet someone like that.

Sounds like a plan.

Cheddar Stacker

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2014, 02:20:25 PM »

thanks for posting the numbers big cheese! that's very helpful.
i'm really glad to hear that this is a feasible plant.
so yea the significant other factor... well after coming on this site i have realized there are a lot of frugal women out there and many who will put us dudes to shame so i'm holding out to meet someone like that.

No problem Dr. Dirty. It forced me to finally learn this formula in excel:

+800,000*(1+5%)^years

I'd never played with that ^ thing before and it's very handy and made quick work of your question.

Spartana

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2014, 06:48:17 PM »
Sounds like a solid plan as long as you stay single. Sometimes spouses and girl friends can be high maintenance, lol. What I'm trying to say is that you need to add the "married factor" into the equation and hopefully hospitals allow part time Doctors.

This reminds me of a scene from the cosby show.  Cliff was having a budget/money discussion with Theo about moving out on his own.  Cliff would pose a problem and grab a chunk of money from theo such as "you are going to need to eat", and Theo would reply with something like "ill eat bologna sandwiches" and grabs a portion of the money back.  It goes back and forth several times until Cliff asks if Theo plans to have a girlfriend.  When he says yes cliff just smiles and grabs the whole stash out of his hand.  I didn't really care for or watch the cosby show that often, but for some reason that scene has stuck with me.
Of course the GF or spouse may bring lots and lots of money into his life and make FIRE that much easier! Some of us have been known to be pretty frugal (and retired young all on our own) - and if two can live as one that makes the dual income go that much further. Kids will change that in a lot of expensive ways though.

frugalnacho

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2014, 12:44:31 PM »
Sounds like a solid plan as long as you stay single. Sometimes spouses and girl friends can be high maintenance, lol. What I'm trying to say is that you need to add the "married factor" into the equation and hopefully hospitals allow part time Doctors.

This reminds me of a scene from the cosby show.  Cliff was having a budget/money discussion with Theo about moving out on his own.  Cliff would pose a problem and grab a chunk of money from theo such as "you are going to need to eat", and Theo would reply with something like "ill eat bologna sandwiches" and grabs a portion of the money back.  It goes back and forth several times until Cliff asks if Theo plans to have a girlfriend.  When he says yes cliff just smiles and grabs the whole stash out of his hand.  I didn't really care for or watch the cosby show that often, but for some reason that scene has stuck with me.
Of course the GF or spouse may bring lots and lots of money into his life and make FIRE that much easier! Some of us have been known to be pretty frugal (and retired young all on our own) - and if two can live as one that makes the dual income go that much further. Kids will change that in a lot of expensive ways though.

*Results not typical. 

Spartana

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2014, 12:16:13 PM »
Sounds like a solid plan as long as you stay single. Sometimes spouses and girl friends can be high maintenance, lol. What I'm trying to say is that you need to add the "married factor" into the equation and hopefully hospitals allow part time Doctors.

This reminds me of a scene from the cosby show.  Cliff was having a budget/money discussion with Theo about moving out on his own.  Cliff would pose a problem and grab a chunk of money from theo such as "you are going to need to eat", and Theo would reply with something like "ill eat bologna sandwiches" and grabs a portion of the money back.  It goes back and forth several times until Cliff asks if Theo plans to have a girlfriend.  When he says yes cliff just smiles and grabs the whole stash out of his hand.  I didn't really care for or watch the cosby show that often, but for some reason that scene has stuck with me.
Of course the GF or spouse may bring lots and lots of money into his life and make FIRE that much easier! Some of us have been known to be pretty frugal (and retired young all on our own) - and if two can live as one that makes the dual income go that much further. Kids will change that in a lot of expensive ways though.

*Results not typical.
Maybe, but why settle for "typical" :-)!

DoubleDown

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2014, 12:57:42 PM »
Your plans sounds good to me. I'd say just be sure you can handle a calamitous event that would stop you from working between ER and age 65 when you intend to tap those retirement accounts and pension. For example, if you became disabled one year after your ER, would your stash saved up plus disability benefits be enough to carry you until you can access your old man money? I always have a little concern about any ER plan that requires the person to continue working in some capacity, even part time, to make it work. But if it's thought out and accounted for, it's all good.

FuckRx

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Re: do these numbers make sense in my retirement plan?
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2014, 02:12:07 PM »

DD, you bring up a good point. I do have disability but in my line of work disability insurance tends to end up not paying out more times than not. I think in the case of a disability I would have enough money to live off of, not as comfortably as I hoped but definitely possible.

I'm also debating whether picking up even more hours to maximize the dollar amount in the next 5 years would be worth it or not. Gotta think that through.
Based on the info posted I could work 40-45hrs/wk and make my 800k mark with mostly tax-deferred money or I could continue with 60-65hrs/wk and get that number closer to 1mill and have more after-tax money.