Author Topic: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts  (Read 4628 times)

nereo

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critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« on: April 20, 2019, 11:32:51 AM »
I've gotten into a 'lively discussion' with a family member about the environmental benefits of driving an EV vs an ICE vehicle.  This debate centered on the environmental and social impacts of the lithium and other heavy metals used in the EV batteries vs similar impacts from gasoline and other engine fluids

I'm trying to learn more, and I'm looking for any objective analyses of the impacts of both. 

For the sake of discussion we're assuming that the energy used to recharge the EV's batteries come predominately from a home PV array, and we are comparing a Nissan Leaf to a Honda Civic or similar mid-sized, fuel efficient car.
We are NOT considering the total cost of ownership, only the socio-environmental footprint.

I know some people here have taken a deep dive into this very subject.  Hoping you can share what you've found
@sol, @Syonyk, @RWD, @forummm

sol

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2019, 12:36:22 PM »
Lithium mining has come a long way in the past few years, but was historically pretty problematic.  It was mostly done in places like China that had limited environmental regulations, and was accordingly done cheap and dirty.

Remember that we have entire federal agencies devoted to identifying global resource inventories for specific minerals needed to support economic and technological growth.  There are literally federal scientist PhDs who make a living studying this stuff, and much of their work is passed on to the US military and pretty much nobody else.  Every time I see a news report about America sending troops to some hole-in-the-wall little country, I wonder to myself what weird unknown resource is extracted there that we've deemed important enough to spend American lives securing.

None of that really matters to this discussion, though.  Oil drilling is inarguably the single most destructive and dirty thing the modern economy does.  It destroys ecosystems.  It pollutes the ocean six different ways.  It contaminates groundwater, and kills endangered species.  It drives huge inequality and injustice in the world, like the US propping up the shitshow of human rights violations called Saudi Arabia.  It's primarily responsible for global warming, and basically every war in the past three decades. Nothing else we do as a species is even close to half as bad, in the grand scheme of thing, as petroleum drilling/refining/shipping/burning.  No contest.

So yea, you can probably go ahead and concede that Lithium mining in China in the 90s was pretty terrible.  It wasn't any worse that aluminum ore mining in Montana in the 90s, though, or pretty much anything that's ever happened to the Erie Canal.  Unlike oil drilling, none of these are existential threats to humanity.

Goldy

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2019, 09:59:38 PM »
These batteries are quickly switching over to a Nickel dominant tech where Ni comprises up to 50% of the mass and from what I understand this % will continue to grow.

marty998

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2019, 06:10:52 AM »
You can bet a resourceful entrepreneur will one day invent a cost effective method of recycling the used batteries.

Oil drilling is inarguably the single most destructive and dirty thing the modern economy does.  It destroys ecosystems.  It pollutes the ocean six different ways.

30 Years later the coastline of Prince William Sound still hasn't recovered from Exxon Valdez.


nereo

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2019, 06:55:44 AM »
THis is where the 'conversation' basically went off the rails.

Being the one considering an EV to replace one of our current ICE vehicles, I mentioned how I didn't like burning hundreds of gallons of gasoline per year, particularly when I could recharge with photo voltaics. To which the response was something along the lines of: Do you have any idea how detrimental lithium mining is? Not only does it destroy the land and the poor people who mine it, but the mining companies bring in sex slaves to 'entertain' the miners." 

I've got a pretty good handle on the carbon footprint of gasoline and its socio-economic costs of the petrolium industry (basically what Sol said). 
What I know much less about is the environmental impacts of the lithium side of things.

Car Jack

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2019, 07:27:55 AM »
These batteries are quickly switching over to a Nickel dominant tech where Ni comprises up to 50% of the mass and from what I understand this % will continue to grow.

What car is going TO nickle?  I know the first Prius used NiMETHy, but everything I hear of that's newer is based on lithium ion technology.  On top of that, despite newer electric car companies being looked at as having all this high tech stuff, they're using standard 18160 cells, simply put into huge packs.

I scrap electronic equipment as a hobby.  As a result, I know what's able to be used to make new "stuff" because the scrap yards pay for it.  Any lithium based packs along with any lead acid are bought by scrap yards (same price per pound).  Nickle metal hydride and NiCad, no.  Worthless.

From an ICE car, I would hope you take used oil to be recycled (for DIY people like me).  The used oil can fairly easily be used directly in a waste oil heater or with very little cleaning, can be used to fuel diesel engines.  Van Hool busses actually directly take crank case oil and add it to the fuel.  A large feeder tank continuously adds new oil to the crank case while old oil is pushed into the fuel.

I would argue that "assuming" that electricity all comes from a household solar panel is sort of unfair as a comparison.  Yes, I understand that newer plants are all natural gas and old coal plants are either being shut down or being converted to natural gas.  It's not for environmental reasons....it's because with widespread fracking (really looking for oil), there's a lot of natural gas that can be captured.  So natural gas is now cheaper to burn than coal is.  So over time, sure, electricity becomes cleaner with the addition of natural gas in place of oil.  Solar and wind help, but do not impact the mix as much as cheap natural gas does.

nereo

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2019, 08:35:53 AM »

I would argue that "assuming" that electricity all comes from a household solar panel is sort of unfair as a comparison.  Yes, I understand that newer plants are all natural gas and old coal plants are either being shut down or being converted to natural gas.  It's not for environmental reasons....it's because with widespread fracking (really looking for oil), there's a lot of natural gas that can be captured.  So natural gas is now cheaper to burn than coal is.  So over time, sure, electricity becomes cleaner with the addition of natural gas in place of oil.  Solar and wind help, but do not impact the mix as much as cheap natural gas does.

For clarification this is for our own personal situtation, and I agree it should not be extended for everyone. My workplace recently put in PV charging (as part of an 84kw array) and we plan on adding our own at home as soon as we complete this last move.  So *almost* all of our personal EV charging would be via PV. 
It's also relevant to the discussion I was having with said family member, who's position was that even if you could eliminate all of the ~6,000 gallons of gasoline an ICE car would burn and power your EV entirely from solar the enviornmental impact of the lithium mining would still be far worse.

fixie

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2019, 10:23:30 AM »
What Sol said.  I think it's great you are making such considerations! 
Unfortunately I think it is all bad, just to varying degrees.  I'll be the first to say I am also complicit.

I remember not so long ago the US was doing military surveillance over-flights of Afghanistan.  Remote sensing of very valuable mineral deposits.  We found quite a lot of rare earth metals.  16+ years later and we are still finding reasons to be there(extracting their mineral wealth heritage is just one).  We used to be a bit more covert about such things, but the current US regime has totally taken the mask off...  Witness Venezuela, where we purposefully demonized its democratically elected leader and government, destabilized its economy through sanctions and other devious means, and openly declared we want their oil and then inserted our very own CIA approved (Guaido) puppet into the mess we made.

There used to be a great website called Energy Bulleting(now resilience.org) that had energy experts in numerous fields(DATA!) that did Energy Return On Investment(EROI) studies and life-cycle studies on modern contrivances.  Used vs New personal speed couches were often studied.  They found the energy/resources required to build ANY new vehicle, EV or otherwise, was much greater than simply using and maintaining an old beater car till the end of its useful life.  Put another way, buying a new vehicle would use more energy than it would ever save over the entire life of the vehicle vs. buying used.

Perhaps you can buy a used EV?  Using household PV doesn't seem quite fair for analysis, because if you are grid-tied you will definitely use some grid power OR your lead acid battery bank is huuuge if you are not(which has its own negative externalities).  Then you start getting into conversion waste and entropy starts taking its toll.

I work less with rechargable lithium batteries than with lithium primary cells like Lithium Thionyl Chloride packs.  Their energy density is much higher than the standard consumer pack by weight.  There are some good studies you can just google on their impact when disposed of in ocean water.  Mostly the lithium negatively affects development in sea creatures.  Anything that molts or grows in the oceans.  Don't ask me how I know they are being dumped in the ocean, or why people would do such a heinous thing!
-fixie

bacchi

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2019, 10:31:23 AM »
These batteries are quickly switching over to a Nickel dominant tech where Ni comprises up to 50% of the mass and from what I understand this % will continue to grow.

What car is going TO nickle?  I know the first Prius used NiMETHy, but everything I hear of that's newer is based on lithium ion technology.  On top of that, despite newer electric car companies being looked at as having all this high tech stuff, they're using standard 18160 cells, simply put into huge packs.

I scrap electronic equipment as a hobby.  As a result, I know what's able to be used to make new "stuff" because the scrap yards pay for it.  Any lithium based packs along with any lead acid are bought by scrap yards (same price per pound).  Nickle metal hydride and NiCad, no.  Worthless.

Interesting. Most of a car's lithium ion battery is actually nickel (or cobalt, or manganese) and graphite. Is the <5% lithium salts (depending on manufacturer) worth that much?

bacchi

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2019, 10:47:06 AM »
There used to be a great website called Energy Bulleting(now resilience.org) that had energy experts in numerous fields(DATA!) that did Energy Return On Investment(EROI) studies and life-cycle studies on modern contrivances.  Used vs New personal speed couches were often studied.  They found the energy/resources required to build ANY new vehicle, EV or otherwise, was much greater than simply using and maintaining an old beater car till the end of its useful life.  Put another way, buying a new vehicle would use more energy than it would ever save over the entire life of the vehicle vs. buying used.

Isn't buying a used car just passing the buck?

If a used car is in decent shape and doesn't require extensive repairs (i.e, it's not destined for the landfill), buying a used car means that someone, somewhere down the line, is buying a new car. It may not be you but it'll happen.

To put it another way, there aren't enough used cars for everyone to buy used and "solve" the imputed energy problem of new cars, at least for any period longer than say 10 years. Unless we're trashing perfectly usable used cars, they'll sit in the used car lot and become less expensive until an on-the-fence buyer decides to buy that off-lease Leaf.

daverobev

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2019, 11:11:40 AM »
Hmmm, so what's better then:

Keeping the 'junker' I have running by putting money into it, more than it is worth - assuming that it would otherwise go for scrap

vs

Buying a 3 year old EV

?

My dad found me a cheap, 2005 Renault Laguna diesel with 150k miles on it. It tells me I get 50 mpg (UK gallons that is). I'd like to buy a 41kWh-battery Renault Zoe for ~£11k ($14500, USD), which also requires a battery lease (nothing much I can do about that, except buy a brand new one without the lease.. a lot more expensive) of ~£60 a month ($80 or there abouts).

The whole point of getting the EV is to reduce our impact. It feels like 'the right thing to do'. But if it is actually climatically better to keep the diesel, well, it is a LOT cheaper to do that... at least, until it blows up. At that point I'm sure my dear father can find me something else that is old but runs...

Is that the best thing, then? Take something that would otherwise go to scrap, and try and keep it running for a few more years?

Goldy

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2019, 11:23:45 AM »
These batteries are quickly switching over to a Nickel dominant tech where Ni comprises up to 50% of the mass and from what I understand this % will continue to grow.

What car is going TO nickle?  I know the first Prius used NiMETHy, but everything I hear of that's newer is based on lithium ion technology.

Nearly every car is going to nickel.  Elon has said that the lithium ion batteries should actually be called Nickel Cobalt Graphite batteries because so little lithium is actually used.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/nickel-secret-driver-battery-revolution/

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2019, 11:41:40 AM »
The lithium needs to mined once, extracting oil is forever. Lithium batteries are already recyclable.

Even better, as coal plants go offline and renewables are built, EVs get cleaner every year. Each ICE gets dirtier every year as it wears down.

sol

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2019, 11:48:44 AM »
Being the one considering an EV to replace one of our current ICE vehicles, I mentioned how I didn't like burning hundreds of gallons of gasoline per year, particularly when I could recharge with photo voltaics. To which the response was something along the lines of: Do you have any idea how detrimental lithium mining is? Not only does it destroy the land and the poor people who mine it, but the mining companies bring in sex slaves to 'entertain' the miners." 

Lithium mining isn't nearly as destructive as oil drilling, from an environmental perspective, and it's also not primarily conducted in countries which actively support terrorism against the United States.  Over its lifetime a new F-150 will send far more of the owner's money to the middle east than it will send to the Ford Motor Company.  Driving fuel inefficient big trucks is literally anti-American.  You might as well put the ISIS flag on the back bumper.

And as for the sex workers, that's not the fault of lithium mining but of bad business practices.  Shell Oil used to routinely murder civil rights activists in Africa who opposed development of new oil fields on tribal lands, but they didn't have to do that.  No one complains that oil commits political assassinations, even though it totally has.  Sex trafficking, just like murder, is a legit global problem everywhere you look.  Lithium mining corporations are not responsible for that problem, though.  At least no more than any other corporation.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 07:58:42 PM by sol »

MilesTeg

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2019, 12:19:58 PM »
THis is where the 'conversation' basically went off the rails.

Being the one considering an EV to replace one of our current ICE vehicles, I mentioned how I didn't like burning hundreds of gallons of gasoline per year, particularly when I could recharge with photo voltaics. To which the response was something along the lines of: Do you have any idea how detrimental lithium mining is? Not only does it destroy the land and the poor people who mine it, but the mining companies bring in sex slaves to 'entertain' the miners." 

I've got a pretty good handle on the carbon footprint of gasoline and its socio-economic costs of the petrolium industry (basically what Sol said). 
What I know much less about is the environmental impacts of the lithium side of things.

This is some weird propaganda bullshit.

Lithium 'mining' (the vast majority of it) isn't even 'mining' per say. Lithium can be extracted from hard rock mines (like most people envision gold or silver mining) but lithium is produced that way generally only a secondary product from a mine producing more valuable minerals.

Typical lithium extraction is done by extracting it from underground water that has the lithium (as a salt) dissolved in it. You pump the water up from the ground into an evaporation pond, and then collect the lithium salts that are left behind (along with other commercially useful minerals).

Compared to underground mining, strip mining, open pit mining, fracking and oil drilling it's incredibly ecologically 'sound'. That's not to say it's perfectly environmentally sound, but by comparison...

RWD

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2019, 01:51:59 PM »
@RWD, @forummm

I haven't really done much research on this topic. I do know these arguments have been going on for for over a decade now. I recall some coworkers discussing whether a Hummer was more environmentally friendly than a Prius (circa 2007). Seems pretty silly to even consider.

forummm hasn't posted in over a year. I wonder what happened?

maizefolk

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2019, 02:01:00 PM »
Forummm dropped off the radar mostly in 2016. I think his wife posted that he was having trouble with spending way too much time on here and it was easier to quit cold turkey than try to try to scale back (might be more details in the "Whatever happened to...." thread. It looks like the 2018 posts was a quick update on being close to FIRE, plus a couple of posts on a Tesla thread.

I remember that article about the Hummer vs Prius years and years ago. Lots of questionable assumptions, including the Hummer having more than twice the useful lifespan of the Prius.

bacchi

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2019, 02:46:46 PM »
I remember that article about the Hummer vs Prius years and years ago. Lots of questionable assumptions, including the Hummer having more than twice the useful lifespan of the Prius.

"Dust to Dust" was the name of the analysis (and to call it that is being generous). The assumed Prius lifetime was just over 100k miles while the assumed Hummer lifetime was over 350k miles (bwahahahaha).

Telecaster

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2019, 04:06:24 PM »
Two thoughts:

The world economy is 100% dependent on oil, and getting and maintaining access to oil has been the cause of an almost unbelievable amount of human misery and at almost unbelievable cost.  For example, the 1991 Gulf War was all about freedom.  Freedom to keep oil flowing to markets.   Even if you believe the 2002 Iraq War was about weapons of mass destruction, it never would have happened if the first war didn't.   We really have no idea how many lives were lost during that conflict or how much it cost.  Estimates are in the trillions of dollars.  ISIS of course sprang up because of the weak war-ravaged government in Iraq.  And the Gulf War came on the heels of the Iran-Iraq war, where something like a million people died.  Again, all over oil.   That is why we support the brutal, repressive Saudi government today. 

Speaking of Iran, in 1953 the USA overthrew the democratically elected prime minister,  Mohammad Mosaddegh because he had nationalized the oil industry and we installed and supported the Shah.  The Shah was a brutal, repressive leader, and backlash against the Shah lead to the rise of the Iranian Islamic State and all the problems associated with that.   There is no way we would support authoritarian, anti-democratic governments like the Shah, Saddam Hussein, or the Saudis if they didn't have oil.  Simple as that.  And a good part of the misery they cause is on us for supporting them.

Going even farther back, an aid to Emperor Hirohito quoted the Emperor as saying  that Japan went to war with the United States because of oil, and lost the war because of oil.  As Japan expanded her empire, western nations began essentially embargo oil sales to Japan.  The attack on Pearl Harbor was motivated by the desire to restore oil imports from the East Indies (which worked, for a time).   Similarly, Hitler attempted to seize the Caucasus oil fields and Baku oil fields in the USSR in order to secure a supply of oil, but was stopped short essentially because the German army ran short of petroleum and couldn't maintain the offensive.

I could go on and on, but you get the point by now.  The economic and strategic of importance of petroleum is so great that there has been a near constant state of war over that resource and the costs of those wars in both human and economic terms are so high they are incalculable. 

I'll do my next point in a separate post.

Telecaster

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2019, 04:26:45 PM »
Next is the straight up economic cost of a petroleum based economy.   Since WWII there have been 12 recessions.  Of those, nine were either preceded by, or directly caused by a spike on the price of oil.   Recessions usually have more than one cause, but there have been several where oil shocks were clearly the main cause.  Specifically 1973, which was caused by the Arab oil embargo (oil prices quadrupled); 1979-80 which was caused by disruptions caused by the Iranian Revolution (oil prices doubled); and 1990 which was caused the Iraq-Kuwait war (oil prices doubled).  The Great Recession was preceded by a oil shock as well.  It wasn't the cause, but it certainly made things worse.

Looking at one of these, the economy contracted by about 3% in 1973 recession, and resulted in high unemployment, stagflation, and collapse of the stock market. This by the way, why 1966 was such a bad year to retire.   If that same event were to happen today, the lost economic growth would be equivalent to about $600 billion.  That's real money.  And that's just one of the oil-related recessions we've had.

From a straight up business perspective we should be examining ways to move away from an oil-centered economy.  It is unstable and expensive. 

Slow2FIRE

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2019, 04:28:16 PM »
Being the one considering an EV to replace one of our current ICE vehicles, I mentioned how I didn't like burning hundreds of gallons of gasoline per year, particularly when I could recharge with photo voltaics. To which the response was something along the lines of: Do you have any idea how detrimental lithium mining is? Not only does it destroy the land and the poor people who mine it, but the mining companies bring in sex slaves to 'entertain' the miners." 

Lithium mining isn't nearly as destructive as oil drilling, from an environmental perspective, and it's also not primarily conducted in countries which actively support terrorism against the United States.  Over it's lifetime a new F-150 will send far more of the owner's money to the middle east than it will send to the Ford Motor Company.  Driving fuel inefficient big trucks is literally anti-American.  You might as well put the ISIS flag on the back bumper.

And as for the sex workers, that's not the fault of lithium mining but of bad business practices.  Shell Oil used to routinely murder civil rights activists in Africa who opposed development of new oil fields on tribal lands, but they didn't have to do that.  No one complains that oil commits political assassinations, even though it totally has.  Sex trafficking, just like murder, is a legit global problem everywhere you look.  Lithium mining corporations are not responsible for that problem, though.  At least no more than any other corporation.

Sex trafficking happens in the Permian basin and in North Dakota at the massive fracking fields.  (albeit, less likely to involve slavery)

Syonyk

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2019, 01:23:56 PM »
Enh.  I try to avoid controversial topics, and have been cutting back internet use over the past months dramatically, but I was pinged by name, and I have done quite a bit of research in this realm.  So... braindump incoming.  I'm not going to reply to everything, only things that haven't been suitably covered and are in my areas of expertise.

In general, anyone talking about lithium can safely be assumed to not know what they're talking about, and is almost always just parroting some talking points they've heard from your bog standard conservative talk radio.  If you're into battery tech, things like cobalt are far more concerning from a "social" perspective, because you've got the Democratic Republic of Congo's "artisanal" miners providing an awful lot of the world's supply.  Translated to normal English, "child and borderline slave labor, working in hand-dug mines with no safety gear, in a third world country with all the worst of what you expect from that."

You can certainly build lithium ion batteries without cobalt, and the amount of cobalt in the good chemistries has been dropping, but in general, cobalt is required for a flagship li-ion cell.  Without it, energy and power density are both lower.  And that's a problem for traction battery packs.

A lot of the heavy metals are currently byproducts of copper mining, right now.

If you want good summary sheets on materials, USGS provides annual overviews of the assorted mining products.

Nickel: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/nickel/mcs-2019-nicke.pdf

Cobalt (you can see why DRC matters here): https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cobalt/mcs-2019-cobal.pdf

Lithium: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2019-lithi.pdf

I've gotten into a 'lively discussion' with a family member about the environmental benefits of driving an EV vs an ICE vehicle.  This debate centered on the environmental and social impacts of the lithium and other heavy metals used in the EV batteries vs similar impacts from gasoline and other engine fluids

If you're coming from the carbon emission perspective, batteries are a good bit better (especially if charged from PV), but I suspect this isn't a particularly compelling argument in the discussion you're having.

Being the one considering an EV to replace one of our current ICE vehicles, I mentioned how I didn't like burning hundreds of gallons of gasoline per year, particularly when I could recharge with photo voltaics. To which the response was something along the lines of: Do you have any idea how detrimental lithium mining is? Not only does it destroy the land and the poor people who mine it, but the mining companies bring in sex slaves to 'entertain' the miners."

In general, lithium extraction is brine-based, so... other than the evaporation pools, I'm not sure what they're talking about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Extraction has some details, and Australia is the current leader in production: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production

Other heavy metal mining varies in impact, but if you're talking about poor people mining, cobalt is a much more concerning resource than lithium.

These batteries are quickly switching over to a Nickel dominant tech where Ni comprises up to 50% of the mass and from what I understand this % will continue to grow.

50% of the cathode material weight, perhaps.  Not 50% of the cell weight.

What car is going TO nickle?  I know the first Prius used NiMETHy, but everything I hear of that's newer is based on lithium ion technology.  On top of that, despite newer electric car companies being looked at as having all this high tech stuff, they're using standard 18160 cells, simply put into huge packs.

They're not moving to a nickel based battery chemistry (NiMH, NiCd), but they're moving to more nickel in the active cathode material.  The early lithium ion cells were LiCoO2 - lithium cobalt oxide.  High power, high capacity, short lived, scary to deal with.  Spinel LiMN (lithium manganese) was a good non-cobalt, non-nickel chemistry, but the energy and power density have been significantly exceeded by the newer chemistries.  Most newer development is NCA (nickel, cobalt, aluminum in various blends) or NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt).  They work better, last longer, and are generally what's in use in any reasonably modern EV.

With the exception of Tesla, very few car packs are using cylindrical cells.  Tesla built around the 18650s for a long while, but has moved their newer packs to 21700 format cells (slightly longer, slightly wider, for a significant increase in internal capacity, while not increasing the case weight much).  Most other companies are using larger prismatic cells.  There's no particularly right or wrong way to do it, though containing a cell runaway with small cylindrical cells is fairly easy, and doing it with a large prismatic cell is ~impossible.  I prefer cylindrical cells, but the prismatic ones seem to be working fine (and that's what's in our Volt).

Quote
From an ICE car, I would hope you take used oil to be recycled (for DIY people like me).  The used oil can fairly easily be used directly in a waste oil heater or with very little cleaning, can be used to fuel diesel engines.  Van Hool busses actually directly take crank case oil and add it to the fuel.  A large feeder tank continuously adds new oil to the crank case while old oil is pushed into the fuel.

Lubricating oil is a drop in the bucket of oil product consumption for an ICE.

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I would argue that "assuming" that electricity all comes from a household solar panel is sort of unfair as a comparison.  Yes, I understand that newer plants are all natural gas and old coal plants are either being shut down or being converted to natural gas.  It's not for environmental reasons....it's because with widespread fracking (really looking for oil), there's a lot of natural gas that can be captured.  So natural gas is now cheaper to burn than coal is.  So over time, sure, electricity becomes cleaner with the addition of natural gas in place of oil.  Solar and wind help, but do not impact the mix as much as cheap natural gas does.

Solar and wind require very rapid load following to be able to operate on the grid at large scale.  Natural gas turbines can do this far more effectively than coal plants, which is another part of the reason coal is going away.  It's more expensive, it's generally not useful for load following (you can make a base load plant load follow, but it's genuinely hard on the plant and it shortens the lifespan massively), and power companies are moving away from coal.

It's also relevant to the discussion I was having with said family member, who's position was that even if you could eliminate all of the ~6,000 gallons of gasoline an ICE car would burn and power your EV entirely from solar the enviornmental impact of the lithium mining would still be far worse.

Find out what they think lithium mining is, because they don't seem to be well informed on it.

There is certainly an impact from it, but nothing I've seen of lithium mining makes me particularly concerned.  If they were talking about cobalt, then, yes, they'd have a point.  But the fossil fuel industry props up an awful lot of places that don't exactly make for shining beacons of human rights.

There used to be a great website called Energy Bulleting(now resilience.org) that had energy experts in numerous fields(DATA!) that did Energy Return On Investment(EROI) studies and life-cycle studies on modern contrivances.  Used vs New personal speed couches were often studied.  They found the energy/resources required to build ANY new vehicle, EV or otherwise, was much greater than simply using and maintaining an old beater car till the end of its useful life.  Put another way, buying a new vehicle would use more energy than it would ever save over the entire life of the vehicle vs. buying used.

If you're looking purely at energy (which is what EROEI studies tend to), they have a point, but that doesn't take into account the nature of the energy used.  An EV, running off mostly PV (~5 year EROEI these days, last I looked), is going to be far lower impact emissions than an ICE.  I agree that repairing older vehicles is often the right thing to do (and drove for a lot of my life by repairing cast-off stuff I either intercepted on the way to the junkyard or pulled from the junkyard, literally), but the nature of energy matters just as much, if not more so, than the EROEI numbers.

... though a bicycle still comes out far ahead.

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Perhaps you can buy a used EV?  Using household PV doesn't seem quite fair for analysis, because if you are grid-tied you will definitely use some grid power OR your lead acid battery bank is huuuge if you are not(which has its own negative externalities).  Then you start getting into conversion waste and entropy starts taking its toll.

Lead acid is still far better for stationary storage than lithium.  The embodied energy is an order of magnitude less, and lead acid is within a small rounding error of 100% recycled.  But, yes, unless it's off grid (which requires overpaneling by a good bit), grid tied PV still relies heavily on grid services.

Hmmm, so what's better then:

Keeping the 'junker' I have running by putting money into it, more than it is worth - assuming that it would otherwise go for scrap

vs

Buying a 3 year old EV

Keep the current car running and bicycle/ebike more? :)

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The whole point of getting the EV is to reduce our impact. It feels like 'the right thing to do'. But if it is actually climatically better to keep the diesel, well, it is a LOT cheaper to do that... at least, until it blows up. At that point I'm sure my dear father can find me something else that is old but runs...

It depends very heavily on how much you drive.  And driving, EV, ICE... is still pretty awful, planet-wise.

Elon has said that the lithium ion batteries should actually be called Nickel Cobalt Graphite batteries because so little lithium is actually used.

Elon needs to learn the fine art of shutting his mouth on a regular basis.  They're called lithium ion batteries because lithium ions are the electron transport mechanism that makes the whole cell work.  The nature of the cathode varies wildly across the range of lithium cells, but they're all using the lithium ion transport mechanism.

It's easy enough to find the general cathode chemistry if you want for a particular class of cell, but I don't see the point in raising huge amounts of confusion over the different chemistries outside those who are interested.

I haven't really done much research on this topic. I do know these arguments have been going on for for over a decade now. I recall some coworkers discussing whether a Hummer was more environmentally friendly than a Prius (circa 2007). Seems pretty silly to even consider.

That paper pulled some pretty sketchy levers to make the point.  The car wasn't scrap because it needed a new battery pack at 100k miles (or, often, just a few cells).

But if you look at the embodied energy in producing EVs, yes, it's massive.

It's a big reason why I'm a fan of the PHEV class vehicles.  The 16kWh pack in our Volt (1st gen) uses less than 20% the cell capacity of a long range Tesla, while offsetting almost as much fuel use as a long range BEV would.  And you can build 5 of those for the cells that go into a single long range BEV.

But this is an unpopular opinion, I expect to get shouted off the internet (again) for it, and... try not to pick that one, I won't take the bait.  There is no battery fairy, though.

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forummm hasn't posted in over a year. I wonder what happened?

Figured out life was more important than the internet, probably.

acepedro45

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2019, 02:51:50 PM »
@Syonyk, thanks for an amazing post. I'm trying to summarize what I see here from your perspective.

1. The arguments criticizing the environmental impact of EV battery manufacture are wildly overblown.
2. You acknowledge the math behind the "total energy/resources for a new EV > beater car energy/resources", but you think it's the wrong yardstick to use - you are looking more at carbon emissions.
3. Here's where I'm puzzled: you said it's better to keep a junker around than to buy a 3 year old EV in response to @daverobev. Is that semi-snark just illustrating that picking between EVs and ICE cars is just picking between two options that are both generally lousy for the planet? Or do you really think this? It seems to be in contrast to points made earlier in your post. Maybe you're saying the answer to the junker vs EV question depends on your driving habits.

I am not here to argue, just to learn from someone who obviously has a wealth of knowledge. I am struggling with this very question right now as I eyeball a fancy used Model S while my poor old Corolla edges closer to 165k miles. The economic answer is keep the Corolla and from this thread I think the environmental answer is keep the Corolla...but I can't say I'm not tempted mightily.

The only thing I have to contribute to the discussion is the corporate finance perspective of separating out the energy generation from electricity consumption - sort of similar to how a company's decision to proceed/not proceed with an investment should be made independently of finding financing for the investment.

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For the sake of discussion we're assuming that the energy used to recharge the EV's batteries come predominately from a home PV array,

I think energy is fungible just as money is, so the fact that the OP is generating his/her own electricity is not relevant to the decision to expend or not expend it on an electric car.

« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 03:00:22 PM by acepedro45 »

nereo

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2019, 03:33:10 PM »
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For the sake of discussion we're assuming that the energy used to recharge the EV's batteries come predominately from a home PV array,

I think energy is fungible just as money is, so the fact that the OP is generating his/her own electricity is not relevant to the decision to expend or not expend it on an electric car.
It's a fair point and one that I've been dwelling on.  One conclusion I've reached though is that the analogy of energy to money isn't entirely valid, and the concept of fungibility may not hold.  Most importantly, the size of our PV array depends greatly on our electricity needs, and an EV would be the biggest 'appliance' by far.  In other words, no EV, fewer panels, less enrgy production.  Energy transfer & efficiency may also be important (though if I'm mistaken here feel free to chime in).  THe way I see it, there's less electrical loss (i.e. resistence) going from nearby PVs than from the powerplant over 100 miles away.  Maybe not a ton, but still not equal. 
Less of an enviornmental issue than an economic one, but its more economically efficient to consume the electricity we generate than it is to sell it back to the grid (in otherwords, the rate at which our utility buys power is far less than the cost for us to consume from the grid).

Syonyk

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2019, 04:19:38 PM »
1. The arguments criticizing the environmental impact of EV battery manufacture are wildly overblown.

It depends on what you're comparing to, but, yes.  I do think that hauling around a ton of battery you never need is somewhat silly, though.  Using a long range Tesla for a 20 mile round trip commute and one long trip a year is probably worse than using a far shorter range BEV and renting a gas car for that trip (insert excuses by EV owners about how they can never go back, gas cars are the most horrible thing to ever horrible, etc).  Cobalt containing chemistries are worse off, environmental/social-impact-wise, than non-cobalt-containing chemistries, but I believe almost everything except the Chinese BEVs uses cobalt now.  China is heavy on the LiFePO4 packs, but they're doing a lot of larger vehicle work where that makes sense (lower energy density, better longevity when cycled heavily).

If you look at the lifecycle environmental costs of a BEV vs an ICE, you'd have to be twisting reality pretty hard to get the ICE to come out ahead with a reasonable comparison.  Part of it is that the efficiency is far higher - an ICE is lucky to hit 30-35% thermal efficiency from fuel to wheel, an EV runs closer to 80-90% from wall to wheel (depending on ambient temperatures - winter is rough on EVs).

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2. You acknowledge the math behind the "total energy/resources for a new EV > beater car energy/resources", but you think it's the wrong yardstick to use - you are looking more at carbon emissions.

From a perspective of environmental impact, yes, looking at carbon and particulate emissions is a far more relevant metric.  But, realistically, if you build a 100kWh battery pack in China, on inefficient coal plants, that's a different environmental impact than if you build it somewhere with a surplus of hydro power that has to run anyway for riverflow reasons (yes, dams are their own issue, but... not touching that in this thread).

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3. Here's where I'm puzzled: you said it's better to keep a junker around than to buy a 3 year old EV in response to @daverobev. Is that semi-snark just illustrating that picking between EVs and ICE cars is just picking between two options that are both generally lousy for the planet? Or do you really think this? It seems to be in contrast to points made earlier in your post. Maybe you're saying the answer to the junker vs EV question depends on your driving habits.

It depends on the driving miles, vehicle, etc, but... yes, I think in general, keeping the car around and reducing miles driven is a better option than buying a nearly-new EV.  However, that's also partly biased by finances - it's far cheaper to maintain an older car, and improve the efficiency.  Point is, the car is already made, and keeping it running (as opposed to scrapping it, which is the likely end path for a "junker") has less impact than the energy required to create a new vehicle.  In general, keeping a car on the road will reduce the need for new cars, so that extra few years of running it means that a new car build/purchase, somewhere in the pipeline, can be delayed for 3 years.

https://greet.es.anl.gov/files/vehicle_and_components_manufacturing has some numbers, though it's a bit old.

But I did some math a while back (https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2015/11/how-far-can-you-ride-electric-bike-on.html) and came up with around 35MWh (126 GJ) for the energy just to build a 90kWh Tesla pack.  That's higher than the ANL report by a good margin, but it's also a far larger battery pack than was being considered in ~2010.

A 2017 report (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316884465_Manufacturing_energy_analysis_of_lithium_ion_battery_pack_for_electric_vehicles) puts the total embodied energy in a 24kWh pack at 89GJ (24.7MWh) - so, if anything, the Tesla numbers I came up with may be on the low side.  I was using best case numbers for them.

Point is, battery packs take an amazing amount of energy to produce.  A gallon of gas is 33.7kWh (I work in Wh, not J, sorry - they're directly convertible), so 30MWh is the energy in nearly 900 gallons of gasoline.  And that's the battery pack only - the rest of the vehicle isn't included in those numbers.  It's also significant (another 10-20MWh).

At 30mpg, that's 27k miles of energy, in an ICE.  So, yes, if the car is driven at a lower-than-normal number of miles, I do think it works out to be better to keep the car running.

Now, I realize I appear to have contradicted myself here in that I'm using energy numbers instead of emissions numbers, but I'm making the general point that a new car does take a lot of energy to produce, and a lot of battery production is done in China, which has genuinely filthy power.  They're 65% coal.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China

So, doing the actual numbers is quite tricky, but I do think keeping a well maintained, moderately efficient ICE on the road longer (vs sending it to the scrapper) is the right option at this point in time.

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I am not here to argue, just to learn from someone who obviously has a wealth of knowledge. I am struggling with this very question right now as I eyeball a fancy used Model S while my poor old Corolla edges closer to 165k miles. The economic answer is keep the Corolla and from this thread I think the environmental answer is keep the Corolla...but I can't say I'm not tempted mightily.

Do you have space for multiple vehicles?  Buy a used Leaf or something for commuting, keep the Corolla well maintained and use it for the longer trips the Leaf won't handle.  You'll almost certainly come out ahead as gas prices rise, and you optimize for both cases.  The smaller Leaf pack uses a lot less energy to produce, though it won't last as long as a Tesla pack as Nissan just does a crap job of maintaining it.

Or, for $10k-$15k, have you considered a Volt?  It's the best of both worlds - 25-35 miles on electric (1st gen, the 2nd gen can do closer to 50), with the gas engine for long range use.  We put a decent number of miles/yr on our fleet (probably 15k miles/yr for the family, since my wife & kids head into town a few times a week for various things), but the Volt cuts our fuel use massively, while still not being limited like a pure BEV.  Our 16kWh of battery pack (10.5kWh usable for driving, the pack uses the center half for longevity reasons) handles the common 20-30 mile day case perfectly.  We're past 2000 miles on this current tank of gas, with about 5.2 gallons used - and this is on 120V charging.

It's a fair point and one that I've been dwelling on.  One conclusion I've reached though is that the analogy of energy to money isn't entirely valid, and the concept of fungibility may not hold.  Most importantly, the size of our PV array depends greatly on our electricity needs, and an EV would be the biggest 'appliance' by far.

Is your house purely electric, or do you have gas appliances?  I've got a pure electric house (including the well pump), with around 14MWh/yr used (heavily during the winter - I'm looking at getting a woodstove to reduce that).  The Volt adds around 4MWh/yr - so certainly significant, but not dominating our energy use by any means.

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THe way I see it, there's less electrical loss (i.e. resistence) going from nearby PVs than from the powerplant over 100 miles away.  Maybe not a ton, but still not equal.

No, but your inverters aren't 100% efficient either.  The power grid is remarkably efficient, and where it's not, it's usually because it's just not cost effective to make the upgrades.  The flip side is that your solar generates when it wants, and the power company generates power when it's needed.  If it's a cold, dark, grey morning, and you want a pot of coffee, your power company can deliver that - your solar panels can't.  At least, not without battery storage.

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Less of an enviornmental issue than an economic one, but its more economically efficient to consume the electricity we generate than it is to sell it back to the grid (in otherwords, the rate at which our utility buys power is far less than the cost for us to consume from the grid).

Yes, but you can expect net metering to go away in the coming decade just about everywhere - or to radically change.  The residential rate schedules are a combination of energy costs (around $0.04/kWh) and grid costs (the rest).  Grid tied solar still uses the grid - massively.  So not getting to use it for free is just a reasonable thing if you want the grid to remain operational.

Telecaster

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #25 on: April 22, 2019, 04:47:28 PM »
Those were quite enjoyable posts @Syonyk , Thank you. 

Syonyk

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2019, 10:02:15 AM »
Huh.  Glad you enjoyed it.

Usually this is around when people start lighting into me for not being a techno-utopianist who believes that the power grid can run perfectly fine for free if we just throw a few more smart sensors at it, or for hating the planet because I don't go buy a brand new Tesla that's clearly made from fairies and rainbow dust, because Elon Musk will... (you can probably recite that refrain from memory in 2019 - it hasn't changed in 5 years, and he still is full of his own ego), and instead drive a gas guzzling Volt in an area with ~no charging infrastructure.  And own a large diesel pickup that I use infrequently for pickup-type things.  I don't maintain a particularly popular set of opinions on things like this.

nereo

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2019, 10:20:52 AM »
The advice that keeping your existing car is better than buying a new car is one I admittedly get stuck on.  Unlike other items I cast off, my car will continue to be used as a car until the end of its useful life, just by someone else. The carbon footprint of manufacturing doesn't change so long as the net result isn't that more cars are created.  If I buy an EV of PHEV, I'm supporting the construction of more of those vehicles.  What gets wonky is how the federal and state subsidies toss a monkey wrench into the process.  For many PH/EVs, it can actually be cheaper (or very close to the same) for me to buy new vs buying something that's 3-5 years old (accounting for lifespan, of course).  on one hand it's not money out of my pockjet, but it does come from governmental revenue.  OTOH it's pushing an investment (perhaps very inefficiently) into less polluting cars.  Hmm... 

daverobev

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #28 on: April 23, 2019, 11:47:34 AM »
The advice that keeping your existing car is better than buying a new car is one I admittedly get stuck on.  Unlike other items I cast off, my car will continue to be used as a car until the end of its useful life, just by someone else. The carbon footprint of manufacturing doesn't change so long as the net result isn't that more cars are created.  If I buy an EV of PHEV, I'm supporting the construction of more of those vehicles.  What gets wonky is how the federal and state subsidies toss a monkey wrench into the process.  For many PH/EVs, it can actually be cheaper (or very close to the same) for me to buy new vs buying something that's 3-5 years old (accounting for lifespan, of course).  on one hand it's not money out of my pockjet, but it does come from governmental revenue.  OTOH it's pushing an investment (perhaps very inefficiently) into less polluting cars.  Hmm...

I'm wrestling with this, a bit - except in my case the car in question is probably not going to be 'refurbished' by anyone else - cars are cheap and plentiful (and long-lived because there is nothing like as much salt or sun as in many places, ie compared to Canada).

I generally walk most places, but do make a couple of longer trips a month, and would like to do 'very' long trips (ie, drive through France to visit family). I can in theory make it work with a Renault Zoe with the larger battery pack. Fuel is expensive in the UK (but compared to Ontario at least, electricity is more carbon intensive - wow does having lots of hydro electric help), but then engines tend to be more efficient to go with it.

A 24kWh Leaf won't do me much good (70 miles if I'm lucky?), but a 40kWh Zoe would be ok (180 miles... obviously depending on how you drive it... and how many children are in the back...). Or I could just run the oil-burner Laguna, at... £70 a tank, and a range of 600+ miles maybe?

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #29 on: April 23, 2019, 12:39:58 PM »
Just a little addition re cobalt - those "artisanal miners" also eat bush meat - also know as gorilla and other primates. They are not doing gorilla populations any good.  They are also generally environmentally very destructive.  But they are so poor, this is better than what they have.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #30 on: April 23, 2019, 09:25:34 PM »
The advice that keeping your existing car is better than buying a new car is one I admittedly get stuck on.

It's certainly the weakest point of what I've said.  I could spin a pretty compelling sounding argument either way, based on the numbers.

However, if one zooms out a bit, our culture is horrible about throwing broken things out instead of fixing them, and cultivating an attitude of "repair" vs "replace" goes a long ways, beyond just cars.  Again, a bit off in the weeds of EVs specifically, but I'm one of (IMO) depressingly few people who cultivate "hardcore mode repair" of things.  I've focused on battery packs and electronics, and I do things like replace broken USB ports, re-capacitor old mainboards that have failed, replace surface mount chips if I can determine they're bad, and I've made a lot of money maintaining old ebike systems for people and rebuilding battery packs for abandoned systems.  It drives me up the wall when things aren't built to be repaired, and especially if they're not robust in the first place.  *glares at Apple for their post-2015 laptops with crap keybords*  I deliberately bought an older laptop to avoid that particular failure case, to replace a decade old one, and I've been playing with low-resource (to produce and to run) ARM desktops in the past few years.

Anyway.  If you want a justification to spend money on an EV, don't buy a Tesla and whatever, it's probably fine.  If you happen to have an older car that you want to keep on the road longer, do the work yourself and you probably come out ahead for a few years.  Just find ways of driving less in the first place, and you do radically more difference than either option.

I generally walk most places, but do make a couple of longer trips a month, and would like to do 'very' long trips (ie, drive through France to visit family). I can in theory make it work with a Renault Zoe with the larger battery pack. Fuel is expensive in the UK (but compared to Ontario at least, electricity is more carbon intensive - wow does having lots of hydro electric help), but then engines tend to be more efficient to go with it.

If you're doing infrequent longer trips, you're likely better off with a hybrid (or high efficiency diesel - those exist out there, correct?) than a BEV.  They're less energy intensive to produce, and if you are running longer trips, fuel efficiency is quite good on the highway.  A Prius gets 55mpg, give or take, and the Volt only gets 40 - it's not the best long distance car, but you come out (far) ahead if you make more frequent short(er) trips.  For long distance travel, don't you have trains that go places of interest?

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A 24kWh Leaf won't do me much good (70 miles if I'm lucky?), but a 40kWh Zoe would be ok (180 miles... obviously depending on how you drive it... and how many children are in the back...). Or I could just run the oil-burner Laguna, at... £70 a tank, and a range of 600+ miles maybe?

The Leaf is almost certainly not the right option for you.  It's a pure commuter, best paired with another longer ranged/more capable vehicle.  I'm trying to get people interested in them out here, since most of the families I know have an awful lot of cars (we're odd in that we only have two 4-wheeled vehicles, but we make it up in motorcycles).  Tossing a Leaf into the mix comes out ahead vs driving a larger family vehicle (often an SUV or truck) for solo trips in a hurry.

A 40kWh pack isn't 180 miles by any useful metric.  And especially not in the winter.  That's probably an 80-100 mile range in the cold, and depending on how it handles the pack (I don't know anything about that car), it may not charge particularly quickly until the pack warms up even with a DC fast charger.  Cold lithium batteries are cranky about doing anything rapidly.

Kids are another interesting point, and are a major reason we have a Volt as opposed to a shorter range electric.  When I was considering replacing a (perfectly good) Mazda 3 hatchback, the WAF (Wife Acceptance Factor) was a massive consideration, because it's pretty much her car.  I drive it if I need to go somewhere and she's not using it, but it's primary purpose is for her and the two kids to head into some of the nearby towns for various things on a regular basis.

From that perspective, "The battery is drained, it's [kid]'s naptime, and I need you to come get me" was a nightmare consequence of mine.  We simply don't have charging infrastructure.  There are some AC chargers of varying quality and availability at the car dealerships in town, and... that's about it.  Over into Boise you've got a bit of public charging infrastructure (that would be basically required to round trip in a Leaf in the winter), but it's not widespread, it's not particularly easy to use, in my experience it may not even function (car dealerships are bad about this - they do not maintain their own plugshare entries, and seem rather unhappy that they're even listed), and it's generally a royal pain in the rear to use.  It's not something I was willing to subject my wife to with kids in the car.  The Volt solves this neatly - it just carries along a gas engine and gas in the tank, and will use it as needed.  Our winter fuel economy was "terrible" - around 110 miles per gallon of gas on one tank during a cold month, because it was using gas for heat and the battery range was quite short in the cold (20 miles or so).  Since it's warmed up, we're somewhere past 2000 miles on this current tank, with 5 gallons of gas used.  But "I'm a bit short on range to get home" is simply not a factor.

I could have accomplished roughly the same thing with a long range BEV, but see previous comments about the impact of a long range battery.  Also, they're still hellishly expensive.  I'll burn a couple dozen gallons of gas a year in the car and come out ahead, emissions-wise.  At this point, the car (as the primary vehicle) burns a good bit less fuel than the motorcycles or truck, which are used for radically fewer miles, so that problem is solved, as far as I'm concerned.  Now that it's warm, I really should start riding the 60mpg motorcycle more...

daverobev

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2019, 05:09:55 AM »
"NEDC" for the 40kWh Zoe is 250 miles, which Renault doesn't use because it's pie in the sky. Their quoted range is 186 miles in the summer. Bear in mind I'm talking about the UK, so not too cold most winter days (usually above zero), and not too hot in the summer. I think people are suggesting 140 miles if you drive 'normally', significantly better if you drive carefully (people are saying they can get 200 miles in good conditions). So maybe down to 120 miles in the winter. It is a supermini (maybe the same size as a Honda Fit/Jazz).

Trains. Ah, trains. Apparently they are insanely expensive (£53 for a 1 1/2 hour single from the airport to my current home... vs £20 on the bus, takes the same time, the former has a change while the latter doesn't... guess which I'm doing?). Getting in to work (once a month) would be £100+ on the train - the bus doesn't go where I need to be, unfortunately. Nor in a timely manner.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #32 on: April 24, 2019, 07:32:51 AM »
Back to the OP's situation, where photoelectric panels are proposed to power the charging of the car.....let me propose that the OP could keep their present car and if net metering is in effect, simply sell the electricity to the grid, gaining some income and providing truly clean power to the grid.

I'm a big fan of Iron Phosphate.  Why?  Because it's heavier than other lithium based batteries?  No.  Because it holds less energy?  No.  Because it can discharge more current than most other technologies?  Well, that's cool, but no.  Because when your EV breaks down and is towed someplace, it doesn't spontaneously combust?  Yes.  But I get it.....the range would be much lower using them. 

acepedro45

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #33 on: April 24, 2019, 07:37:03 AM »
Thanks again for your input and thought process @Syonyk. I've enjoyed your blog in the past, too.

I'm also driven crazy by the repurchase over repair bias I see everywhere in consumer society. I do my best to repair my own stuff and to spread the Good News (and apparently Secret News) that stuff can be repaired.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #34 on: April 24, 2019, 08:52:26 AM »
Back to the OP's situation, where photoelectric panels are proposed to power the charging of the car.....let me propose that the OP could keep their present car and if net metering is in effect, simply sell the electricity to the grid, gaining some income and providing truly clean power to the grid.
I mentioned it earlier (and Syonyk expounded upon) the economics of selling power back to the grid are not nearly as favorable as if you use it yourself.  My utility current charges double for consumption what it pays for net metering, and there's already a plan to reduce that amount annually by 10%.  As Syonyk said, that's largely inevitable as there's an enormous cost to maintaining the grid, and nowadays its all too easy to produce more power than you consume on an annual basis.

in this scenario there will be no 'present car' - the dichotomy is between selecting a (used), fuel-efficient ICE or a (new or used) PH/EV.  Our existing car will be replaced one way or anther as it's nearing its end-of-life (currently 15 years and >>200k miles).

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #35 on: April 24, 2019, 10:58:07 AM »
Back to the OP's situation, where photoelectric panels are proposed to power the charging of the car.....let me propose that the OP could keep their present car and if net metering is in effect, simply sell the electricity to the grid, gaining some income and providing truly clean power to the grid.

Do you have any numbers on how that would work?  It ranges from "not cost effective at all" to "not permitted" to "will never actually cut a check," depending on the schedules in the particular area.  Further, I would not rely on any current payout schemes for the long run.  If your numbers require everything going your way for 30 years to make it worthwhile, you're probably a solar salesperson...

Large scale industrial solar is profitable with long term purchase agreements (20 years is a typical range) and installation costs in the $1-$1.50/W range.  Home systems have no long term purchasing agreement (typically not even offered as an option that I'm aware of), and a cost of $3-$4/W installed.  The numbers do not work in your favor, unless the goal is simply to donate power to the grid.  If you're on a legacy net metering plan where you get paid out the residential retail rate for surplus generation, you could make some money until your power company changes that, but at that point, you're taking grid maintenance funds for your own pocket, with how the rate schedules work.  See previous posts.  I don't think that's likely to last long.

If you can make money (to justify the cost of the install) at $0.02-$0.04/kWh paid out, and your power company will do that, sure, go for it.  The only way I know to meet the price requirement for that is to do the install yourself, possibly as a ground mount, and that's quite the pain in the rear.  MMM's AHJ is apparently super casual about it, because I saw what he submitted, and far more detailed work has been rejected out here...   But at $1/W installed (I might be able to pull off $1/W for a pure grid tied system, but probably closer to $1.25/W out here for a basic install), it starts to make sense - if you've got the payout system available.  And you'll still rapidly run into limits on system size, either by consumption numbers or by transformer size limits.  Upgrading your local transformer is quite a few thousand dollars.

But installing solar to overproduce and get paid out handsomely is mostly done in most of the country, and likely to be even more completely done here in the next decade for most places.  It's simply not a viable way to keep the grid operational.

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I'm a big fan of Iron Phosphate.  Why?  Because it's heavier than other lithium based batteries?  No.  Because it holds less energy?  No.  Because it can discharge more current than most other technologies?  Well, that's cool, but no.  Because when your EV breaks down and is towed someplace, it doesn't spontaneously combust?  Yes.  But I get it.....the range would be much lower using them.

It's somewhat more environmentally friendly, as well - iron, phosphate, and oxygen aren't particularly rare (and the lithium isn't that large a problem).  I'd use it for stationary storage if I had a need for large scale stationary storage (beyond the 30kWh or so I'm putting in of flooded lead acid), but FLA is still pretty solid for stationary storage.  Plus, good luck getting an inspector to sign off on a lithium bank.  FLA is going to be hard enough...

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #36 on: April 24, 2019, 12:19:27 PM »
@Syonyk Do you know anything about compressed air energy storage (CAES)? I ran into this article on small-scale CAES for residential energy storage, and it seems like a neat idea, though still largely experimental:

https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2018/05/ditch-the-batteries-off-the-grid-compressed-air-energy-storage.html

I have dreams of an off-grid solar powered home, so this is something I'd like to tinker with.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #37 on: April 24, 2019, 12:57:38 PM »
I mentioned it earlier (and Syonyk expounded upon) the economics of selling power back to the grid are not nearly as favorable as if you use it yourself.  My utility current charges double for consumption what it pays for net metering, and there's already a plan to reduce that amount annually by 10%.

I think that the economics of selling power back depends a lot on where you are and what programs (if any) your local government is running.  We sell power to the grid at about 4x the price to buy it because of solar incentives.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #38 on: April 24, 2019, 01:23:53 PM »
I think that the economics of selling power back depends a lot on where you are and what programs (if any) your local government is running.  We sell power to the grid at about 4x the price to buy it because of solar incentives.

Ditto.  We buy all of our monthly net power from the grid for about 8 cents/kWh, but we get paid 54 cents/kWh for all of the power our roof produces (even if we consume it locally instead of selling it back to the grid) because of a temporary state subsidy program.  This works out to $5,000/year for us, and they send us a check once per year.  Meanwhile, my bi monthly power bills are positive in some cycles and negative in some cycles.

It's a temporary arrangement though, funded by the state legislature, and after 2020 we'll go back to selling power for the same retail rate at which we buy power.  From our end the moment-to-moment load balancing is all invisible, because our panels just run whenever it's sunny and our bill gets aggregated once every two months.  So as long as we made more power than we used over that two month period, they pay me 8 cents per kWh for the difference.  Of course it's all accounting trickery anyway, because they also charge $10/month for the privilege of having a power connection so I have to produce a surplus of at least 125 kWh in a billing cycle to get my power bill all the way to zero.

Then it gets even worse, because the power and water bills are combined here and the water bill charges about $30/month for the privilege of having a water hookup, plus whatever water usage you have.  My roof has never made enough power to offset these fixed costs plus my water usage costs, though I did get down to a grand total of $2.25 one time.  More typically, my combined bills average out to about $100/month so it's not like my utility company is losing money on me.  Syonyk's previous assertion that net metering is killing utility companies doesn't seem universally true.  They have lots of tricky ways of adjusting their rate structure to stay profitable.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2019, 05:39:01 PM »
I think that the economics of selling power back depends a lot on where you are and what programs (if any) your local government is running.  We sell power to the grid at about 4x the price to buy it because of solar incentives.

Ditto.  We buy all of our monthly net power from the grid for about 8 cents/kWh, but we get paid 54 cents/kWh for all of the power our roof produces (even if we consume it locally instead of selling it back to the grid) because of a temporary state subsidy program.  This works out to $5,000/year for us

Wow!!!

My utility pays a fixed rate (around 9 cents/kwh) for power from home solar, in the form of a rebate up to the value of the customer's electricity charges that month for any electricity drawn from the grid. In other words, they never cut a check, they just cut the variable portion of the electric bill to zero if you contribute enough energy to do so. The calculation is tricky because they have a progressive rate  scale for low users (like my house), so our normal charge in the first place is much less than 9 cents/kwh. Solar at these prices is uneconomic...so, sadly, I don't have any.   :(

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@Syonyk, thanks for all the Volt discussions as well as the battery analysis. Keeping in mind for the future, continuing with old gas vehicle 5,000-7,000 miles/year for now.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #40 on: April 26, 2019, 11:03:51 AM »
Thank you all for this thread. A civil intellectually honest discussion about energy use and generation is hard to find. I wish more people would think about the topic.

I think energy is fungible just as money is, so the fact that the OP is generating his/her own electricity is not relevant to the decision to expend or not expend it on an electric car.
It's a fair point and one that I've been dwelling on.  One conclusion I've reached though is that the analogy of energy to money isn't entirely valid, and the concept of fungibility may not hold.  Most importantly, the size of our PV array depends greatly on our electricity needs, and an EV would be the biggest 'appliance' by far.  In other words, no EV, fewer panels, less enrgy production.  Energy transfer & efficiency may also be important (though if I'm mistaken here feel free to chime in).  THe way I see it, there's less electrical loss (i.e. resistence) going from nearby PVs than from the powerplant over 100 miles away.  Maybe not a ton, but still not equal. 
Less of an enviornmental issue than an economic one, but its more economically efficient to consume the electricity we generate than it is to sell it back to the grid (in otherwords, the rate at which our utility buys power is far less than the cost for us to consume from the grid).

I think this is an important question. It's currently much easier to turn chemical energy into electricity than going the other direction. Chemical energy can also be used for things (like flight and trans oceanic shipping) that electricity can't (yet). I'd argue that means energy isn't fungible making an honest evaluation harder. If saving money were always directly correlated to being a better steward of the planet it'd be easier.

Examples:
Where I live I can either heat my house with wood or natural gas. If I use the cost of natural gas heat to calculate the value of the wood I cut I'm barely making minimum wage. However, I do enjoy cutting and splitting firewood.

Since I enjoy cutting wood and it's otherwise going to rot producing methane, is replacing my older stove with a more efficient one good for the environment or bad?

How much effort and money should I put into moving heat from the wood stove which is upstairs (why o AK home builders why) to the lower floor?

My father heats his house (and domestic water) entirely with wood in an place and way that it is completely sustainable. How many non renewable resources should I use to improve the efficiency of his home? That calculation is also changing as he ages and cutting wood becomes more difficult...

And of course we will eventually face the same question as nereo when our Nonda fit final wears out. The cheapest thing would probably be to buy another fit but I'm not sure if that's the best choice. I also have doubts about current battery technology in the climate here... Temperatures than liquefy propane mean I probably shouldn't drive a hybrid or EV to my dad's house in the winter.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #41 on: April 26, 2019, 11:13:55 AM »
The advice that keeping your existing car is better than buying a new car is one I admittedly get stuck on.  Unlike other items I cast off, my car will continue to be used as a car until the end of its useful life, just by someone else. The carbon footprint of manufacturing doesn't change so long as the net result isn't that more cars are created.  If I buy an EV of PHEV, I'm supporting the construction of more of those vehicles.  What gets wonky is how the federal and state subsidies toss a monkey wrench into the process.  For many PH/EVs, it can actually be cheaper (or very close to the same) for me to buy new vs buying something that's 3-5 years old (accounting for lifespan, of course).  on one hand it's not money out of my pockjet, but it does come from governmental revenue.  OTOH it's pushing an investment (perhaps very inefficiently) into less polluting cars.  Hmm...

This is only true if someone else's definition of "useful life" matches your own. The next owner might decide that it's not work spending $500 to fix something that you would have fixed removing the car from the road years before you would have. Admittedly I have no idea how to calculate that probability and it likely depends on how many of repairs you make yourself compared with the next owner.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #42 on: April 26, 2019, 11:19:17 AM »
I don't maintain a particularly popular set of opinions on things like this.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #43 on: April 28, 2019, 03:57:39 PM »
@Syonyk Do you know anything about compressed air energy storage (CAES)? I ran into this article on small-scale CAES for residential energy storage, and it seems like a neat idea, though still largely experimental:

I've read that article, haven't been convinced it's particularly useful.  Or, at least, I can't find hardware that would make it useful short of building my own stuff and repurposing scroll compressors/expanders/etc, which is an awful lot more work than I want to put in for a system that barely stores any energy.

The energy density of compressed air is really, really bad, and while it should run forever, I question how reliable it will be vs, say, a good deep cycle lead acid battery, properly maintained (beat the crap out of it on charge, keep it watered).  Look at the sizes mentioned in that article, then figure out just how much steel is required to build those pressure vessels.  They don't touch on the energy required to build the storage to hold a tiny amount of energy.

As much as it's popular to hate on lead acid (and compare the worst of lead acid to the best of lithium), for stationary storage, they're still excellent.  Low energy (relatively speaking) to build, nearly 100% recyclable, and if you get a deep cycle battery that's actually designed for the use and treat it properly (most of them don't die in service - they're murdered by criminally incorrect charging voltages/behaviors, or just not enough panel area), they last a very long time with zero drama.

So... it's an interesting technology, but I think it would be far more useful for short range mechanical storage and transmission.  Pushing it into service as an electricity storage system is just horribly inefficient.  Better than nothing, yes.  Worth experimenting with?  Maybe.  Worth deploying?  I don't think so (at this point in time).

Ditto.  We buy all of our monthly net power from the grid for about 8 cents/kWh, but we get paid 54 cents/kWh for all of the power our roof produces (even if we consume it locally instead of selling it back to the grid) because of a temporary state subsidy program.  This works out to $5,000/year for us, and they send us a check once per year.  Meanwhile, my bi monthly power bills are positive in some cycles and negative in some cycles.

That's the sort of insanity that's ending or has already ended in most places.

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Then it gets even worse, because the power and water bills are combined here and the water bill charges about $30/month for the privilege of having a water hookup, plus whatever water usage you have.  My roof has never made enough power to offset these fixed costs plus my water usage costs, though I did get down to a grand total of $2.25 one time.  More typically, my combined bills average out to about $100/month so it's not like my utility company is losing money on me.  Syonyk's previous assertion that net metering is killing utility companies doesn't seem universally true.  They have lots of tricky ways of adjusting their rate structure to stay profitable.

The question isn't, "Are they making or losing money on you?"  The question is, "Can they afford to maintain their infrastructure with the billing rates and amounts charged?"  Water pipeline networks aren't free to maintain either.

sol

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #44 on: April 28, 2019, 06:19:14 PM »
That's the sort of insanity that's ending or has already ended in most places.

It's a subsidy program.  It makes no attempt to be cost effective or revenue neutral.  The state legislature is spending state tax money to subsidize in-state solar equipment manufacturers, by paying customers up to $5k per year to buy their stuff.  I don't think it's any more insane than the mortgage interest deduction or the special rules for depreciating oil rigs.  Governments choose how to spend their taxes, and my state choose to support local solar manufacturing small businesses.

Is that really insanity?

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #45 on: April 28, 2019, 09:55:42 PM »
It's a subsidy program.  It makes no attempt to be cost effective or revenue neutral.  The state legislature is spending state tax money to subsidize in-state solar equipment manufacturers, by paying customers up to $5k per year to buy their stuff.  I don't think it's any more insane than the mortgage interest deduction or the special rules for depreciating oil rigs.  Governments choose how to spend their taxes, and my state choose to support local solar manufacturing small businesses.

Is that really insanity?

I understand the point of it, but, yes, I think paying residential customers $0.50+/kWh generated for energy worth $0.04 or so is pretty well insane.

In any case, that's coming to an end, and the realities of power generation are going to bite an awful lot of people who believed the lies of their solar salesmen in the rear end.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #46 on: April 29, 2019, 09:38:40 AM »
It's a subsidy program.  It makes no attempt to be cost effective or revenue neutral.  The state legislature is spending state tax money to subsidize in-state solar equipment manufacturers, by paying customers up to $5k per year to buy their stuff.  I don't think it's any more insane than the mortgage interest deduction or the special rules for depreciating oil rigs.  Governments choose how to spend their taxes, and my state choose to support local solar manufacturing small businesses.

Is that really insanity?

I understand the point of it, but, yes, I think paying residential customers $0.50+/kWh generated for energy worth $0.04 or so is pretty well insane.

In any case, that's coming to an end, and the realities of power generation are going to bite an awful lot of people who believed the lies of their solar salesmen in the rear end.

In our case we have a contract for the higher rates for another 15 years going into the future.

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Re: critical, objective evaluation of EV / lithium-ion impacts
« Reply #47 on: April 29, 2019, 12:40:14 PM »
In our case we have a contract for the higher rates for another 15 years going into the future.

My solar subsidy program was only guaranteed for six years, but that was more than enough for the system to pay for itself and then some.  I have no complaints, and I definitely wasn't duped by a salesman.  I gamed out the returns on my solar investment just like I do for everything else, and I knew exactly what I was getting into.

It's just weird to me when someone talks trash about the subsidy programs.  Do those same people object to the EV rebates?  The earned income tax credit?  Rental depreciation schedules?  Governments always choose what activities and industries to cut a break, for the greater good.  It's not evil or crazy to abide by the tax code.