Author Topic: Negotiating a home price  (Read 3584 times)

FIRE47

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Negotiating a home price
« on: May 31, 2016, 11:44:03 AM »
I know this is likely to be somewhat market specific - but I am moving slowly towards buying my first home and looking for advice.

I looked for articles online but they all seemed to be written by real-estate agents saying not to offend the seller and that the days of making big deals are over in today's scorching sellers markets. That all sounds like a great excuse to increase commissions but I'm not buying that it applies to my situation.

I am mainly referring primarily to setting the initial offer price and what I should expect to end up paying as a % of the initial list price.

I seem to remember hearing a generic rule of thumb at some point that 10% below listing price is usually not a bad place to come in at.

To start off I am in a midsize market  that is somewhat cyclical and is slightly depressed due to the current low resource prices - unemployment is quite a bit higher than usual.

Home prices usually tick along lazily at around 1-2% higher each year with a small down year this past year of around 1-2%. Overall they don't really move much more than inflation.

Now to be more specific the homes I am looking at are around 50% higher than the typical "starter home" in my area, but are by no means luxury which would probably be 100% higher than what I'm buying. Nonetheless I think in a slow market these homes seem to be moving relatively slower than the starter homes.

Long story short - if I have seen a particular home and a relatively large (for the market size) number of similar homes listed for 3,4,5+ months - is it possible to start putting out some low-ball offers on properties like this?

thd7t

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2016, 12:46:13 PM »
You have nothing to lose with a low ball offer. In your market, it sounds like you will be able to find another house, if an offer falls through. You are a buyer, so you have a say in the value of a house. If you don't get it, you'll live, but with more money and information.

mozar

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2016, 12:47:22 PM »
Do you have access to the mls? It will tell you what similar homes sell for. I think I bid 15% below and they countered full price. Then I bid 10% below and I got it. If you are the only bidder I wouldn't worry too much about offending them. If they don't want to sell, find another house.

forummm

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2016, 12:55:13 PM »
If you're happy to get a house at $X and happy to let it get away from you at >$X, low-balling with $X bid is fine. You might find a house that hasn't gotten any offers and the owners are motivated and may just take it. Your risk is the time you spend finding properties.

FIRE47

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2016, 12:58:24 PM »
If you're happy to get a house at $X and happy to let it get away from you at >$X, low-balling with $X bid is fine. You might find a house that hasn't gotten any offers and the owners are motivated and may just take it. Your risk is the time you spend finding properties.

Right now I'm just renting and have all the time in the world plus no conditions of selling - my theory is now might be the only time I can really be patient and land a big deal in this market especially.

I have a few major requirements but am not overly fussy - I'd be prepared to walk several times.

Another question though - how do agents enjoy dealing with someone like this?
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 01:00:28 PM by FIRE47 »

Axecleaver

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2016, 01:07:54 PM »
In my experience, you have to consider Days on Market (DOM), and you need to run your own comps. You can use Zillow to do the past sold $ amounts (although that will not have any concessions data, for that you need a realtor to help you with the MLS data). The list price is just a data point in the process, you can't set your price only by % of the list price. In many cases list price is set arbitrarily based on the seller's emotional state, or set too high by a realtor who was hungry for the listing, knowing they'd reduce it later. Do NOT take the word of the seller agent for comps. Even having a buyer's agent is not insurance against poorly priced properties - your agent only gets paid when you buy, so they will do everything they can to make a deal happen, not necessarily save you money.

What you'll find is that some properties are listed way outside the range of similar comps. When we looked in our area, we found a few good properties that were 20% or more overpriced. We had zero luck explaining this to sellers - eventually we gave up on badly priced properties and simply stopped looking at them. Do this before you even look at a property.

Once you find a home that's priced correctly, you have to look at DOM. I did some data analysis of all sold properties in my area for the year prior to us buying, and found that properties that are under 60 DOM sold at 95% or higher of list, or they didn't sell at all. Sellers are much less likely to consider lower offers in the first two months. The analysis I did showed anything over 60 days sold for between 80%-95% of list, with the average over 60 days selling for 90.6% of list price. Median was 90.7%.

So once a property hits 60 days, you can loft some 85% of list offers out there. But you must run your own comps and only bid on stuff that's not ridiculously overpriced, because sellers get emotionally attached to the number they've been sold. You might get a lot of sellers coming back with rejections of your bid. We had a seller reject a bid that was 91% of list (it was listed high, we bid 102% of the actual retail value, they rejected it). It will be frustrating, but just walk away. There is always another house to bid on.

I've got some stories about our real estate misadventures in my journal: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/cleaving-to-fi/msg953225/#msg953225

thd7t

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2016, 01:08:48 PM »
Agents prefer higher sale prices, but not as much as you might think. The amount that they gain by increasing the cost is frequently offset by the time they have to spend in negotiations. They make more money selling faster than selling higher.

Syonyk

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2016, 01:14:05 PM »
Sounds like "Not Seattle." Housing negotiations out there are funny.

"I know you're asking $700k but I'll offer $750k, and waive the inspections!!"
"Sorry, someone offered $775k, cash. In a briefcase."

abiteveryday

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2016, 03:14:14 PM »
Sounds like "Not Seattle." Housing negotiations out there are funny.

"I know you're asking $700k but I'll offer $750k, and waive the inspections!!"
"Sorry, someone offered $775k, cash. In a briefcase."

Isn't that the truth!  The escalation of prices drove my sister and her husband completely out of the area, after being outbid by $60k on fine different houses.

Beriberi

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2016, 03:34:47 PM »
Agents love, love, love to work with buyers - much greater chance of a juicy 3% commission without a lot of work. Of course, some buyers demand a lot of attention, end up offering on multiple properties, etc, and the agent earns every penny and then some.   However, most buyers have pretty straightforward transactions.  So, a real estate agent should be delighted to work for you.

I get monthly reports from Redfin that show me the average days on market for areas that I am interested in, as well as the sale prive/asking price of recent sales for the same areas. In some areas, the LTV may be 105% right now, in others it may be 95%.  You can offer anything you like - but realize that you are wasting everyone's time if you offer 80% on a house in an area where everyone is paying 110%.

Syonyk

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2016, 06:30:01 PM »
Isn't that the truth!  The escalation of prices drove my sister and her husband completely out of the area, after being outbid by $60k on fine different houses.

Five, I assume?

That's only a warmup.  You've got to bid over asking on probably 30, 40 houses to get an offer accepted.  And don't you dare try having an inspector through.

It's a stupid area.  I was out there for a while, left, and am radically happier.

abiteveryday

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2016, 06:32:16 PM »
Isn't that the truth!  The escalation of prices drove my sister and her husband completely out of the area, after being outbid by $60k on fine different houses.

Five, I assume?

That's only a warmup.  You've got to bid over asking on probably 30, 40 houses to get an offer accepted.  And don't you dare try having an inspector through.

It's a stupid area.  I was out there for a while, left, and am radically happier.

Yeah five.    I like it here, but it helps that I bought in 2009.

Syonyk

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Re: Negotiating a home price
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2016, 06:33:27 PM »
You're a multi-millionaire now! :D

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!