Hi all - OP here, haven’t been around in some time, hope you all are well. I am well and fully vaccinated, as are my family members. Even my boyfriend with stage 4 lung cancer is still here and managed to avoid Covid, despite monthly chemo visits to the clinic.
I thought I’d share my thoughts about where we are now in regards to Covid, and what I’m doing.
First of all, people are acting as if Covid is over, and it is not. Some initial assumptions about what it would take to reach herd immunity have been changed due to the Delta (and other) variants. 70% of people with immunity may not be high enough with the increased infectiousness of the Delta variant. Measles requires a 95% vaccination rate for herd immunity. The Delta variant will probably require at least over 80%.
Yes, if you are vaccinated, your personal risk of dying from Covid is quite low. Over 99% of Covid deaths right now are in the unvaccinated (vaccines work!!!). But you have at least a 10% risk of developing an asymptomatic or mild case of Covid, which you could then transmit to other vulnerable people, like the un-vaccinated (including children) or immunocompromised. (Possibly a higher risk, based on recent data out of Israel). So to protect OTHERS and to speed reaching herd immunity, I still recommend mask wearing if you are indoors in public (like the grocery store, movie theaters etc. ) . Outdoors is probably safe to be unmasked if you’re not in a tight crowd.
Some states and counties with very low vaccination rates are already seeing an upswing in Covid hospitalizations. If you live in those areas I’d be extra careful and follow your local county statistics.
I know there has been some talk about a vaccination for children under 12 by fall; I’m guessing more like the beginning of 2022. No inside knowledge, just this is a slightly more complex trial than the approval for 12-17 year olds. Teens are basically adults when it comes to dosing most things. Approving the vaccine for children requires figuring out the proper dosing for different ages and/or weights, and so requires a more complicated trial I imagine.
A great source for analysis of Covid news from a scientific perspective is the blog Your Local Epidemiologist).
Many of my patients ask me about booster shots. This is really a two part question:
How long will the immunity from our vaccines last? We don’t know yet. They’re holding up well so far. Could be an annual shot, if could be more like tetanus with an every 5 year shot. Won’t know for a while.
When will we need a booster for variants? Fortunately, the three vaccines we have in the US still give us pretty good immunity against serious disease from the Delta variant. This may change in the future. Moderna already is 3 months into a clinical trial of a booster targeting the South African mutation which is part of the Delta variant. Or simply getting a third shot of the existing vaccine, as Pfizer is proposing, may boost immunity so much that new variants are not so much a threat.
I expect 3-4 years until the rest of the world has reach herd immunity and variants stop cropping up.
How all this will affect our finances is guesswork. What I am doing personally is still wearing a mask in public and at work, still requiring patients to wear masks in the office, socializing only with small groups of vaccinated and careful people. I will attend an outdoor seated concert in August and plan to wear a mask. I still don’t eat at restaurants, I get takeout. I’m more cautious than some because I have a vulnerable person at home and I don’t want to risk getting an asymptomatic case.
I have seen 10-20% of my unvaccinated patients who had mild to moderate outpatient Covid cases develop long term consequences. Even in young healthy people. And almost all the Covid deaths today would have been prevented with a vaccine. My sister lost a friend last month because he was unvaccinated.