Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 129185 times)

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8821
  • Location: Avalon
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #650 on: March 17, 2020, 03:54:18 AM »
Nearly everything about both the coronavirus and the economic effects of various forms of shutdown is an unknown: all there is are best guesses based on limited information.

I agree that the economic effects of a prolonged shutdown are so far probably underestimated.  My suspicion is that this is not just a recession (2 quarters of negative growth) because that would need a return to economic growth from June 2020 onwards, which at present is looking pretty uncertain.

If the spread of the virus can't be stopped by the start of summer and/or an effective vaccine created and rolled out by that time then it looks as though we could be headed for an economic depression.  Google tells me there is no one accepted definition of an economic depression but that the main indicators would be -

* A fall in GDP of 10% or more
* A fall in GDP for over 3 years
*Very high unemployment – over 20%
*Deflation
*Asset / credit contraction

That would be a completely new economic reality for all of us, upending everything we have taken for granted for decades.  But the thing to remember is that an economic depression can be survived, even if uncomfortable, and is preferable to a 10% death rate from coronavirus, which would be the textbook definition of "decimation".
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 05:40:51 AM by former player »

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #651 on: March 17, 2020, 04:16:33 AM »

On the vaccine,  despite the rapid progress, I've heard it won't be available to the public for a year to 18 months.

Dicey

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 22318
  • Age: 66
  • Location: NorCal
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #652 on: March 17, 2020, 05:38:36 AM »
Today, (Well, yesterday now. Thanks, insomnia.) DH got a phone call from Kaiser (our giant HMO), advising him he was due for routine labs and not to forget to come in. WTF, Kaiser? You're dragging otherwise healthy people living in
"Shelter in place" counties in to the hospital's labs? So incredibly tone-deaf! 

Cranky

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3842
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #653 on: March 17, 2020, 06:45:57 AM »
My dentist office cancelled my routine cleaning for the end of the week "per new state guidelines." They are only seeing emergency patients. The state of Ohio wants them to hand over their supplies, too.

Meanwhile, I walked down to the IGA this morning. They were pretty well stocked at 7:30 AM and it was mostly old people (like me!) there. Lots of signs about covering your mouth if you cough or sneeze. They've taken out all the self serve stuff. A delivery guy came in and they made him Purell his hands before he unloaded anything.

I sprayed my shoes with lysol spray and left them out on the porch.

Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3882
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #654 on: March 17, 2020, 06:48:21 AM »
President Trump has tweeted multiple times, including this morning, about what he likes to call and write as the "Chinese Virus." People tell him to please stop calling it that and he just doubles down.

My brother has adopted small children from China. He lives in a nearly entirely white area of Washington state, and earlier this week someone fired multiple gunshots at his house.

Words have consequences.

Please don't vote for this racist asshole.

Edited to add that, since this incident, my brother now has two shiny new pump action shotguns . . . and he taught his oldest to shoot. So that is his COVID-19 preparedness.

« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 06:58:51 AM by Zamboni »

Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3882
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #655 on: March 17, 2020, 06:56:49 AM »
Today, (Well, yesterday now. Thanks, insomnia.) DH got a phone call from Kaiser (our giant HMO), advising him he was due for routine labs and not to forget to come in. WTF, Kaiser? You're dragging otherwise healthy people living in
"Shelter in place" counties in to the hospital's labs? So incredibly tone-deaf!

Yeah, I tried to talk my step mom out of going into Kaiser for a routine appointment later this week. They were also talking about going to get more groceries, although I am positive they do not need anything from that store at this time. My dad has so many co-morbidities that there is probably no way he can survive getting this particular virus, but people are just oblivious I guess.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #656 on: March 17, 2020, 07:22:39 AM »
It is very obvious that the number of cases i the US and some other places are vastly underreported. They might be so more places, but its les obvious. As of now the US has 81 deaths and 4744 confirmed cases. Norway has 3 deaths so far, but 1420 confirmed cases. Norway with a population just over 5 million has conducted more tests than the US with a population of over 300 million. Norway has now switched to tested only key personel (mostly health care workers and other essential staff) and people with serious symptoms. Country has been in some sort of shut-down since Thursday last week. Most of the service industry is shut down, a ton of people work from home, schools are closed countrywide, the borders are pretty much closed and no gatherings take place.

If the US numbers don't explode in the coming two weeks (provided the US actually manages to test the population) I'm very surpised. The number of infections in the US can get pretty nasty. There is also some chatter about a meaningful amount of the population not believing in anything that comes from the government so controlling the population is expected to be harder than in countries where trust in the public sector is much higher and you can't pay yourself ahead in the queue and everyone is covered by the health system. So the aim is basically to manage the spread within the availability of intensive care beds and assumed need.

Our health folks feel the situation is starting to get under control here - we are number 2 or 3 in confirmed cases per capita, but also in the top 3 in part of the population tested. The next couple of weeks will be crucial - they will provide a lot of intel on how effective the shutdown has been. Some promising signs are starting to emerge from Italy, but it's still early to call.

BTW the UK is starting to abandon its strategy and implement social distancing.

It might have been posted here earlier - this is a very good article with some very illustrative graphs:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 07:27:28 AM by habaneroNorway »

Sibley

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7428
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #657 on: March 17, 2020, 07:28:26 AM »
Today, (Well, yesterday now. Thanks, insomnia.) DH got a phone call from Kaiser (our giant HMO), advising him he was due for routine labs and not to forget to come in. WTF, Kaiser? You're dragging otherwise healthy people living in
"Shelter in place" counties in to the hospital's labs? So incredibly tone-deaf!

Yeah, I tried to talk my step mom out of going into Kaiser for a routine appointment later this week. They were also talking about going to get more groceries, although I am positive they do not need anything from that store at this time. My dad has so many co-morbidities that there is probably no way he can survive getting this particular virus, but people are just oblivious I guess.

Was able to talk my mom out of the dentist, but not the eye doctor. Given the eye doctor is more of a critical thing (glaucoma treatment) and the dentist was a cleaning, am on the fence. But really, she's only semi-onboard with shelter in place.

TomTX

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5345
  • Location: Texas
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #658 on: March 17, 2020, 07:28:44 AM »
My dentist office cancelled my routine cleaning for the end of the week "per new state guidelines." They are only seeing emergency patients. The state of Ohio wants them to hand over their supplies, too.

Just as an FYI, there was a recent dental conference with 15,000 attendees and numerous confirmed cases of COVID-19.

TomTX

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5345
  • Location: Texas
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #659 on: March 17, 2020, 07:31:06 AM »
If the US numbers don't explode in the coming two weeks (provided the US actually manages to test the population) I'm very surpised. The number of infections in the US can get pretty nasty. There is also some chatter about a meaningful amount of the population not believing in anything that comes from the government so controlling the population is expected to be harder than in countries where trust in the public sector is much higher and you can't pay yourself ahead in the queue and everyone is covered by the health system. So the aim is basically to manage the spread within the availability of intensive care beds and assumed need.

I've come at the calculation from multiple approaches, and didn't even use pessimistic numbers (ie, I used a 3.5 day doubling time rather than the 2 days many countries are seeing) - middle of the road estimate is 500,000 current infections in the USA, the majority of which are recently infected and show no symptoms.

Raenia

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2628
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #660 on: March 17, 2020, 07:31:40 AM »
My employer has moved to emergency measures, only employees critical to business continuity are to go on-site, everyone else is to work from home until Mar 27.  This may be extended depending how things go in our area.  We manufacture a lot of cold and flu medications, so people are going to be needing our products, or I suspect they'd be shutting down the plant as well.  I'm a little concerned that they may stop paying hourly employees once the work we can do remotely dries up, but if so, we have enough buffer to weather it without having to sell investments.

DH is still required to go in to work, which we are not happy about because he takes public transit.  Fortunately yesterday he said he was the only person on the bus, so hopefully the risk is low.  Washing hands and sanitizing frequently.  He is going to continue asking to work from home regardless, hopefully in the next few days this is accepted.

We had just done a regular stock up at BJ's and the bulk goods store before this became big, so we have plenty of food, TP, tissues, etc.  If this goes on more than 2 weeks, our diet will get very boring though.  There's definitely a shortage of fresh food - DH tried to stop after work yesterday for a few things, and the store was out of eggs and milk, and very limited on fruits and veggies.

We already take off our shoes in the house, with a small area around the door to keep shoes.

I was going to pick up my new glasses and contacts, but the store closed before I could.  Fortunately I have an extra pair of contacts, so I should be ok until they open again.  Unfortunately my old glasses are broken, so I don't have the option to stop using contacts for the duration.

gaja

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1681
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #661 on: March 17, 2020, 09:28:21 AM »
President Trump has tweeted multiple times, including this morning, about what he likes to call and write as the "Chinese Virus." People tell him to please stop calling it that and he just doubles down.

My brother has adopted small children from China. He lives in a nearly entirely white area of Washington state, and earlier this week someone fired multiple gunshots at his house.

Words have consequences.

Please don't vote for this racist asshole.

Edited to add that, since this incident, my brother now has two shiny new pump action shotguns . . . and he taught his oldest to shoot. So that is his COVID-19 preparedness.

That sounds terrible. Poor kids!

Linea_Norway

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8569
  • Location: Norway
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #662 on: March 17, 2020, 10:35:19 AM »
It is very obvious that the number of cases i the US and some other places are vastly underreported. They might be so more places, but its les obvious. As of now the US has 81 deaths and 4744 confirmed cases. Norway has 3 deaths so far, but 1420 confirmed cases. Norway with a population just over 5 million has conducted more tests than the US with a population of over 300 million. Norway has now switched to tested only key personel (mostly health care workers and other essential staff) and people with serious symptoms. Country has been in some sort of shut-down since Thursday last week. Most of the service industry is shut down, a ton of people work from home, schools are closed countrywide, the borders are pretty much closed and no gatherings take place.

If the US numbers don't explode in the coming two weeks (provided the US actually manages to test the population) I'm very surpised. The number of infections in the US can get pretty nasty. There is also some chatter about a meaningful amount of the population not believing in anything that comes from the government so controlling the population is expected to be harder than in countries where trust in the public sector is much higher and you can't pay yourself ahead in the queue and everyone is covered by the health system. So the aim is basically to manage the spread within the availability of intensive care beds and assumed need.

Our health folks feel the situation is starting to get under control here - we are number 2 or 3 in confirmed cases per capita, but also in the top 3 in part of the population tested. The next couple of weeks will be crucial - they will provide a lot of intel on how effective the shutdown has been. Some promising signs are starting to emerge from Italy, but it's still early to call.

BTW the UK is starting to abandon its strategy and implement social distancing.

It might have been posted here earlier - this is a very good article with some very illustrative graphs:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.


I think Norway might have ten times as many infected as the official confirmed numbers. As per 8nstructions, if you feel sick, you are not supposed to report it anywhere, unless you really need a doctor. But as most of the population now keeps themselves at home, it might get under control.

I have been running some numbers. Population of Noway ca 5 mil. If everyone would get infected, 15-20% get sick, and 5% need a respirator, then 250 000 will need a respirator. We have only 4000 in total.
I hope the number that needs a respirator is a lot lower than 5% of the infected.

Omy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1726
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #663 on: March 17, 2020, 11:14:18 AM »
Hopefully new treatment protocols reduce the severe cases very very soon, and vaccines are developed asap (which will be longer to get out).

I think this has to be the focus to get it under control. Countries are going to need to work together to see what works and what doesn't in severe cases. I'm hoping a cocktail of meds we already have available will be employed to control the most severe cases.

Linea_Norway

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8569
  • Location: Norway
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #664 on: March 17, 2020, 02:00:48 PM »
Assuming people need a respirator (same as what we call a ventilator?) for 4 weeks, and no one is using them now (!), does this work out to you need to only have 1000 cases per month needing a ventilator?  Which means we have to extend the curve of infection up to 2 years. 

Modelling by a Canadian researcher shown on CBC last night showed over 600 days til the outbreak and attendant social distancing swings were done and we were 'finished' with the virus infecting people (my layperson words, not theirs).  (That would assume people become immune and no serious mutations in the virus I think.)

Yikes either way...this is not a quick return to 'normal' if that's even possible.  Hopefully new treatment protocols reduce the severe cases very very soon, and vaccines are developed asap (which will be longer to get out).

I wouldn't want to stay at home for 600 days, especially since we have to move out in a few months. But even then. They can't keep the schools closed forever, either, I would think.
A vaccine would take approximate 18 months to develop. That is shorter than 600 days, I hope.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #665 on: March 17, 2020, 02:09:38 PM »
My grimmer viewpoint is that at some point in time the population will just have to accept the fact that a lot of people will die from this - you cannot shut down a country for a year or more. China did it for one region, and much more shutdown than is doable in the west.

But I ran some numbers today - if we take worst case - everyone in the country gets infected, the probability of statistical me (male, 40-45y old) is pretty much the same as dying from something else any given year (about 0.3%). If there is one thing that has become clear to me the last weeks is how vastly people underestimate the danger of life itself.

Metalcat

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17374
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #666 on: March 17, 2020, 02:35:18 PM »
My grimmer viewpoint is that at some point in time the population will just have to accept the fact that a lot of people will die from this - you cannot shut down a country for a year or more. China did it for one region, and much more shutdown than is doable in the west.

But I ran some numbers today - if we take worst case - everyone in the country gets infected, the probability of statistical me (male, 40-45y old) is pretty much the same as dying from something else any given year (about 0.3%). If there is one thing that has become clear to me the last weeks is how vastly people underestimate the danger of life itself.

I don't think anyone is expecting to prevent the majority of deaths, they're attempting to slow the roll of the inevitable spread through the population so that the medical resources can have a chance to keep up.

Flattening the curve isn't so much about preventing infection, it's about slowing the rate of infection. It's about preventing as much chaos as possible while people die.

Don't worry, the people generating these models already know that many people will die.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #667 on: March 17, 2020, 02:41:52 PM »

Flattening the curve isn't so much about preventing infection, it's about slowing the rate of infection. It's about preventing as much chaos as possible while people die.

Don't worry, the people generating these models already know that many people will die.

Yeah, agree. But it is strongly undercommunicated that a lot of people will die from this regardless. Albeit a lot fewer if the curve can be flattened so health care can keep up.


Metalcat

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17374
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #668 on: March 17, 2020, 02:58:53 PM »

Flattening the curve isn't so much about preventing infection, it's about slowing the rate of infection. It's about preventing as much chaos as possible while people die.

Don't worry, the people generating these models already know that many people will die.

Yeah, agree. But it is strongly undercommunicated that a lot of people will die from this regardless. Albeit a lot fewer if the curve can be flattened so health care can keep up.

Is it though?

The models are pretty clear. There are thousands of "flatten the curve" memes out there that make it pretty clear that the current efforts don't aim to prevent spread or death, just slow it down and prevent *preventable deaths* by providing medical interventions when needed.

It seems pretty transparent to me.

Omy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1726
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #669 on: March 17, 2020, 03:11:46 PM »
There are still a lot of people who spout flu stats vs covid-19 stats and respond that this is not nearly as bad as the flu. I keep wanting to shake them and tell them to read and look at the math...and this has barely started! What happened to the ability to think critically??!!

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #670 on: March 17, 2020, 03:14:16 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois. 

the_fixer

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1252
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #671 on: March 17, 2020, 03:18:26 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Villanelle

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6651
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #672 on: March 17, 2020, 03:31:44 PM »
Why is there so little mention of the economy on this thread?

I just read that several Bay Area counties are under orders to "shelter at home" for 3 weeks (if not longer).
I was surprised to learn that, among other things, "shelter at home" means not going to work (for those without the option to work from home and in industries deemed non-essential). Workers facing inevitable job losses were encouraged to apply for unemployment or disability.

I understand that it is all in effort to "flatten the curve," but what good is it for people not to go to their jobs if they can still go to the grocery store and bank? How much is it reducing viral spread, and at what price? Containment to the extent that it affects people's livelihoods seems like a terrible idea, but I must be missing something. "Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

You know what else decimates an economy?  A lot of dead workers, including the people supposed to keep the survivors alive and well.  If you don't think that it will affect livelihoods when the owner of that restaurant dies, so the restaurant closes, and his dry-cleaner no longer gets his business, and he doesn't pick up his morning coffee anymore, he doesn't buy groceries (I hear the dead don't have much of an appetite), and he no longer gasses up his car for his drive to work.

Some of that will be made up by the increased business to funeral homes and coffin-makers, who may end up buying more coffees, but certainly it won't be a direct offset. 

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4560
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #673 on: March 17, 2020, 03:33:29 PM »
Evidently, extreme testing and isolation of the infected is quite effective if implemented immediately. Too bad we turned down that opportunity while it was available.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #674 on: March 17, 2020, 03:56:22 PM »
Hoarding, US-style. The MMM term "Costco run" is never gonna mean the same to me again.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240008101677457411?

Freedomin5

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6482
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #675 on: March 17, 2020, 04:03:56 PM »
Both the US and China are starting medication trials, and China has just approved a treatment drug.

US: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/us/coronavirus-us-american-treatment-trial/index.html

China: https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/

Luz

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #676 on: March 17, 2020, 04:05:32 PM »
Evidently, extreme testing and isolation of the infected is quite effective if implemented immediately. Too bad we turned down that opportunity while it was available.

That's what I've been wondering. Lock downs seem pretty ineffective without testing and quarantine of the sick. The last numbers I saw showed that South Korea tested at a rate of 20,000 people per day while the US had run 11,000 tests in total.
It also appears that lock downs in places like Italy don't require people to stay home from work (if they can't work remotely).
I have no doubt that containment makes sense. But we (in the US) seem to be going about it quite poorly.

American GenX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 948
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #677 on: March 17, 2020, 04:13:59 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Illinois just had its first COVID-19 death, plus 55 new confirmed cases of COVID-19.  I assume that's it.

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #678 on: March 17, 2020, 05:39:36 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Illinois just had its first COVID-19 death, plus 55 new confirmed cases of COVID-19.  I assume that's it.

22 cases in one nursing home confirmed today.  So IL is going the WA path.

Sibley

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7428
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #679 on: March 17, 2020, 06:08:51 PM »
S just HTF in Chicago and Illinois.
Care to Elaborate?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Illinois just had its first COVID-19 death, plus 55 new confirmed cases of COVID-19.  I assume that's it.

22 cases in one nursing home confirmed today.  So IL is going the WA path.

The sad thing is, I don't need to even look. I know which nursing home. I've driven by it many times. I know that most of the people there will be dead in a month.

SunnyDays

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3489
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #680 on: March 18, 2020, 10:00:47 AM »
Hoarding, US-style. The MMM term "Costco run" is never gonna mean the same to me again.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240008101677457411?

That is quite something!  It's amazing that they have that many carts.  The people at the end of the line should just give up, because there will be nothing left by the time they get in.  Bet they're still waiting .......

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #681 on: March 18, 2020, 10:08:05 AM »
Hoarding, US-style. The MMM term "Costco run" is never gonna mean the same to me again.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1240008101677457411?

lol, they're probably all waiting on a group of 3 carts blocking the aisle by sampling some smoked sausage.

lutorm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 831
  • Location: About the middle of Sweden
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #682 on: March 18, 2020, 11:43:19 PM »
For those who think that it's only a problem for elderly:
Quote
American adults of all ages — not just those in their 70s, 80s and 90s — are being seriously sickened by the coronavirus, according to a report on nearly 2,500 cases in the United States.

The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients were at greatest risk of becoming seriously ill or dying. But of the 508 coronavirus patients known to have been hospitalized in the United States, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 sickest patients studied — those who were admitted to intensive care units — were adults under 65.
Here's the report.

Would be interesting to know if this is because the virus hits differently here or if it's just because there are larger numbers of younger people infected because the older ones are isolating themselves more.

Imma

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3193
  • Location: Europe
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #683 on: March 19, 2020, 01:21:32 AM »
 People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Hirondelle

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1598
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #684 on: March 19, 2020, 02:58:33 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

Linea_Norway

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8569
  • Location: Norway
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #685 on: March 19, 2020, 04:35:58 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Imma

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3193
  • Location: Europe
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #686 on: March 19, 2020, 05:11:20 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Good point, I don't know if this is universal or not. I know in our country we have open discussions on end of life treatment but in other countries this may be taboo.

My family member is not in ICU but they are late 80s and completely healthy and living independently until 2 weeks ago. Nevertheless we have discussed end of life care as a family for 15 years so we all know what their wishes are. The family member is still conscious and able to make decisions and so far they haven't changed their mind, so if it family would have to make a decision at some point we can be confident we act in their best interest.

This is also a topic that's discussed when someone enters a nursing home. Another relative decided she wanted to die in her own bed and not in hospital, so when she had a massive stroke the nursing home didn't call an ambulance but the family and the priest and she died without regaining consciousness in her own bed a few days later. She was very old, partially paralyzed and blind before her stroke. In other countries maybe people find it very strange to not to anything that's medically possible, but in our country people often prefer quality of life over quantity.

ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7402
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #687 on: March 19, 2020, 07:27:34 AM »
In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Italy's average age of death is also very high.

I'm wondering if the age of death on average will be considerably lower in the United States as nursing homes/assisted living places have had a lot more warning/prep than they did in Italy.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2417
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #688 on: March 19, 2020, 07:41:32 AM »
I feel woefully unprepared for this. We are starting to run out of things it didn't occur to me to stock up on. Nothing too vital - of course - that is why I didn't think to stock up.

I wonder how the super-extreme prepper communities are doing? I bet they are gloating gloaters!!

Sibley

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7428
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #689 on: March 19, 2020, 07:53:06 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Good point, I don't know if this is universal or not. I know in our country we have open discussions on end of life treatment but in other countries this may be taboo.

My family member is not in ICU but they are late 80s and completely healthy and living independently until 2 weeks ago. Nevertheless we have discussed end of life care as a family for 15 years so we all know what their wishes are. The family member is still conscious and able to make decisions and so far they haven't changed their mind, so if it family would have to make a decision at some point we can be confident we act in their best interest.

This is also a topic that's discussed when someone enters a nursing home. Another relative decided she wanted to die in her own bed and not in hospital, so when she had a massive stroke the nursing home didn't call an ambulance but the family and the priest and she died without regaining consciousness in her own bed a few days later. She was very old, partially paralyzed and blind before her stroke. In other countries maybe people find it very strange to not to anything that's medically possible, but in our country people often prefer quality of life over quantity.

In the US, my impression is overall we want to live forever so we deny, deny, deny. And when we DO die, its more often in a very nasty way. Why the heck is a 85 year old person getting aggressive chemo/radiation for cancer? I do not know, but it happens.

The nursing home NOT calling the ambulance would be considered neglect/abuse here. Even if it would be kinder.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2417
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #690 on: March 19, 2020, 07:56:07 AM »
It should definitely be choice of the patient to pursue extreme measures if they so choose.

I do not believe coronavirus is an easy death? So I'd at least like to be knocked out on something if I couldn't breath.

KBecks

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2350
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #691 on: March 19, 2020, 08:05:26 AM »
Every old person is different.  I know some very active 80+ year olds who are doing well and living independently.  Others slow down.  Some have dramatic slow downs, but it is important for them to have opportunities for care.  My mother in law (a nurse) advocated for her mom when she was in the hospital and tell the doctors that her mom had an active life and doing well before she got sick, so that the doctors would think of the sick 80 year old as having hope and a life to return to and not on a downward spiral.  She recovered and had several more years of doing well.

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4560
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #692 on: March 19, 2020, 08:35:39 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

erutio

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #693 on: March 19, 2020, 09:14:12 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

Hospice doesn't mean no care!  It just mean different goals of care.

So I'd at least like to be knocked out on something if I couldn't breath.

The above example is one of hospice care.  Emergency life-savings measures are meant to NOT knock you out.  Instead of morphine, you would be getting things like epinephrine and other meds to increase your heart rate

geekette

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2550
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #694 on: March 19, 2020, 10:26:10 AM »

Hospice doesn't mean no care!  It just mean different goals of care.

So I'd at least like to be knocked out on something if I couldn't breath.

The above example is one of hospice care.  Emergency life-savings measures are meant to NOT knock you out.  Instead of morphine, you would be getting things like epinephrine and other meds to increase your heart rate
My FIL was an example of great hospice care.  He had COPD.  They dropped in on him frequently, helped him with meds, chatted with him.  He lived about a year longer than expected, and only had a tough time the last couple weeks.  IIRC, he had oral morphine to take if he had trouble breathing (it wouldn't help his breathing, but it calms the panic of being unable).  His last 2-3 nights were in a hospice facility that looked like a very nice bedroom.

slappy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1453
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #695 on: March 19, 2020, 10:37:19 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

ixtap

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4560
  • Age: 51
  • Location: SoCal
    • Our Sea Story
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #696 on: March 19, 2020, 10:43:12 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

It was not universal and no one used those actual words, but there was a definite backlash that hospice is giving up, you should fight to the end, etc. My ILs have this attitude. They get mad at the relatives who died in their 90's for giving up.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 11:11:28 AM by ixtap »

OtherJen

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5267
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #697 on: March 19, 2020, 10:47:24 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

I'm a hospice volunteer. My only response to "hospice is for losers" is "go fuck yourselves."

Boofinator

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1429
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #698 on: March 19, 2020, 11:02:10 AM »
Why is there so little mention of the economy on this thread?

I just read that several Bay Area counties are under orders to "shelter at home" for 3 weeks (if not longer).
I was surprised to learn that, among other things, "shelter at home" means not going to work (for those without the option to work from home and in industries deemed non-essential). Workers facing inevitable job losses were encouraged to apply for unemployment or disability.

I understand that it is all in effort to "flatten the curve," but what good is it for people not to go to their jobs if they can still go to the grocery store and bank? How much is it reducing viral spread, and at what price? Containment to the extent that it affects people's livelihoods seems like a terrible idea, but I must be missing something. "Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

If you think that the only people getting seriously ill and dying are over 80 with heart disease ie not you, you are sadly mistaken. This is a viral pandemic and one that we don't fully understand. You're bitching and moaning about livelihoods when the measures are to save lives. Including yours.

+1000

Not sure I understand all of the vitriol directed toward Luz's posts. Her questions appear to come from legitimate concerns, which I share as well. Clearly, there is an appropriate response based on the severity of the disease, and people are going to differ in opinion on the appropriateness of the response. I mean, by all appearances we are currently taking a more stringent response than was taken during the 1918 flu pandemic, which by all measures was a more deadly disease.

Even MMM was downplaying coronavirus not but a couple weeks ago, comparing the number of deaths at the time to traffic deaths (ignoring the fact the pandemics grow exponentially whereas traffic deaths do not). Didn't hear anyone tell him to "Piss off, troll." Another person downplaying the virus (as compared to the economic effects) is the quasi cult leader Elon Musk, who is essentially defying a lockdown in the Bay Area (yeah, I know he received an exemption after the fact) so as not to disrupt his business (whereas every other automaker in North America has shut down, in areas not as hard hit as the Bay Area).

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/covid-19-automakers-plant-shutdowns-coronavirus/

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-17/coronavirus-tesla-fremont-factory

Musk:
Quote
My frank opinion is that the harm from the coronavirus panic far exceeds that of the virus itself.... I will personally be at work, but that’s just me.

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #699 on: March 19, 2020, 11:46:46 AM »
In the US, my impression is overall we want to live forever so we deny, deny, deny. And when we DO die, its more often in a very nasty way. Why the heck is a 85 year old person getting aggressive chemo/radiation for cancer? I do not know, but it happens.

The nursing home NOT calling the ambulance would be considered neglect/abuse here. Even if it would be kinder.

In some of the areas it can be attributed to religion as well. Christianity emphasizes saving lives at all cost. Letting someone die peacefully when there are ways of keeping them alive raises questions about what can be considered killing or suicide. When eternity is at stake, it's best to not roll the dice, be miserable at the end, but preserve your purity than to risk hell!