People are extraordinarily bad at predicting future outcomes, particularly when that future is substantially different from the present. Our psyches are heavily biased towards the status quo it seems. So one must assume that if the coronavirus will end up being significant, we will be unlikely to actually see it coming. It is psychologically very difficult to ask “given what we see today, what is the likely outcome two years from now?” if that outcome is substantially different than today.
One way to bypass this cognitive bias is to do a thought experiment that starts with the outcome and then work backwards to present day. So, “Coronavirus became a global pandemic and killed 30M people worldwide. What would it have looked like in the early days?” The answer to that, in my view, is it would look like exactly what we are seeing. I’m not saying 30M is the guaranteed outcome, but it certainly is within the set of possible outcomes. The probability of that is definitely non zero. (Btw, 30M is just world population 7.7B x 20% infection rate x 2% mortality rate.)
Of course I would expect most people to not be able to wrap their heads around a potential outcome such as that. It would be a total black swan event and completely divorced from anything in recent memory. Come on, we all know most people can’t even plan for their retirement, which they KNOW is going to happen...so I put very little weight on the “consensus” that this will all just go away. It might not.
So, yeah, I could totally see this as being a really big deal. And if there are some preparations I can make then why not? I think people dead set against
reasonable preparation are really just looking to reinforce their denial of a possible negative outcome. And all I have to do is be just a smidge ahead of the curve of most people and my chances of surviving and thriving go up substantially!
I’m with you,
@frugaldrummer.