Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120903 times)

frugaldrummer

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Coronavirus preparedness
« on: February 23, 2020, 11:28:35 PM »
Thinking about preparedness for the coming coronavirus pandemic. No, itís not the zombie apocalypse. Fatality rate per infection is somewhere in the range of 0.5-1 %. It will not be successfully confined to China. Outbreaks like those happening in Iran and Italy will begin showing up in the US, surely within the month.

The biggest disruptions will be:
Overloaded hospitals - San Diego County could see hundreds and eventually thousands of additional ICU patients. Expect your elective surgeries to be rescheduled.

Travel business will suffer. Who wants to travel if you might get stuck in a quarantine away from home.

Large public gatherings will be postponed (my Rolling Stone tickets might not get used, the conference Iím attending in late May could get cancelled). A lot will depend on whether we attempt quarantines in this country and if so, how long they go on.

Business disruptions - in my case, I expect patient cancellations, may need to do telemedicine visits if quarantines are in force in our area.

Practical precautions Iím taking:

Stocking up on non-perishable food. We are a household of four adults, one is an immune compromised lung cancer patient, so I want to have the option to stay out of the grocery stores if need be. Freezer is full, bought a big stock of rice and red beans. Will stock up on pasta and canned goods - got spaghetti sauce on sale at Costco. Nothing that wonít get eaten eventually even if no emergency occurs.

Filling all prescriptions.

Iíve been sewing face masks (imperfect protection but still of some use.)

Fortunately I have savings I can draw on for any income disruption.

Any other suggestions for the possibility of quarantine/self quarantine becoming necessary for a few weeks?

Oh - stocked up on toilet paper too.

« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 12:07:23 AM by frugaldrummer »

marty998

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2020, 01:10:03 AM »
Basics like anti bacterial soap, stock your first aid kit, maybe consider powdered milk? I don't think bottled water is a necessity here... the dams are full enough, the water system will still work.

Definitely no expert on this and curious to know what others say.

Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2020, 05:42:29 AM »
My DH is an emergency management expert and we are doing exactly nothing different than normal, and we have very minimal prep for anything other than being very well prepared for acute medical emergencies.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2020, 06:28:03 AM »
~56K people die from the regular old flu every year and nobody panics. We are doing exactly nothing different than any other winter.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2020, 06:33:16 AM »
My DH is an emergency management expert and we are doing exactly nothing different than normal, and we have very minimal prep for anything other than being very well prepared for acute medical emergencies.

Pretty much this ^.
From the CDC - the most important actions you can take are basic hygiene and common sense.  Get plenty of rest now, eat right and drink water.  Wash your hands frequently. Limit contact with sick individuals and don't go into work if you are sick.  In other words, pretty much the same precautions one takes when there's an outbreak of the flu.

If you really want to be a 'prepper' then stock up on P95 face masks now, and make sure your basic emergency kit is stocked up. 


beltim

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2020, 07:16:14 AM »
~56K people die from the regular old flu every year and nobody panics. We are doing exactly nothing different than any other winter.

The regular flu does not result in national borders being closed, large events being canceled, and people being quarantined.

This is not to say that emergency preparedness is necessary, but the comparison to the regular old annual flu is farcical in terms of potential restrictions on travel and business disruptions.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2020, 07:23:28 AM »
The regular flu does not result in national borders being closed, large events being canceled, and people being quarantined.

This is not to say that emergency preparedness is necessary, but the comparison to the regular old annual flu is farcical in terms of potential restrictions on travel and business disruptions.

The OP is the US and I am in Canada. There are no national borers being closed here or large domestic events being cancelled that I am aware of. My GF is in a senior position in our local health care system and while they are monitoring the situation there are no plans for any radical action.

The problem seems to be the FUD that people are propagating online and my point is if you don't panic about the seasonal flu there is no need to panic about this.



frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2020, 07:33:03 AM »
N95 Face masks are not available - they sold out weeks ago.  Besides they need to be reserved for hospital staff.

Yes, the flu kills tens of thousands every year (get your flu shots!). This coronavirus will likely be on the order of 200,000 to 1 million deaths in the US. Many public health pronouncements are made to try to prevent panic. However, if major quarantines are put in place in the US it will induce panic, and quite a bit of disruption.

It actually would be much less disruptive if we simply gave up quarantines, accepted it was here , and went about our daily lives. But A)public policy at the moment is still valiantly (and probably vainly) trying to prevent this virus from becoming pandemic (and ultimately an endemic, recurring threat) and B) thereís an (unproven) hope that if it can be delayed, it might turn out to be a seasonal virus that could start to die out in April (only to recur next winter). Combine this with a president who has a documented germophobia and is likely to continue overriding CDC and WHO recommendations based on that fear and I believe we will have quarantines and panic-induced shortages in the near term.

Antibacterial soap is unnecessary (and bad for us) - itís a virus and plain soap or alcohol is effective. Iím not a fan of disposable wipes but I did pick some up for household surfaces like the staircase bannister to protect our cancer patient. Good hand washing is important as current evidence suggests the virus may live on surfaces for days.



 


Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2020, 07:34:13 AM »
I'm not panicking, but the time to prepare is before there's an actual problem, IMO.

We've stashed some masks in our go bag, and I've ordered extra cat food because I think that is subject to supply chain disruptions. Otherwise, I keep a well stocked pantry as I always do in the winter.

[N95 face masks are available at the hardware store, btw.]

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2020, 07:43:39 AM »
As for ďno government plans for major disruptionsĒ - my childhood hometown just got a court order to stay a plan that was being imposed to use an old psychiatric facility there as a place to quarantine people (currently military bases are being used for this purpose.) The reason for the stay was a lack of preparedness and local government hadnít been included in the planning. To me it looks like our government is preparing for mass quarantines as in China, and is expecting military base capacity to be exceeded. (We have several large military bases on our state).

I think mass quarantine is unnecessary and dangerous - home quarantine is safer. But itís a reflection of preparations being made by our government.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2020, 07:45:43 AM »
Good idea on the pet food btw, I hadnít thought of that.

beltim

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2020, 07:51:56 AM »
The regular flu does not result in national borders being closed, large events being canceled, and people being quarantined.

This is not to say that emergency preparedness is necessary, but the comparison to the regular old annual flu is farcical in terms of potential restrictions on travel and business disruptions.

The OP is the US and I am in Canada. There are no national borers being closed here or large domestic events being cancelled that I am aware of. My GF is in a senior position in our local health care system and while they are monitoring the situation there are no plans for any radical action.

The problem seems to be the FUD that people are propagating online and my point is if you don't panic about the seasonal flu there is no need to panic about this.

Not true.  The US has closed its borders to travelers from China. 

Again, I'm not saying there should be radical action.  I'd argue there aren't any special preparedness measure necessary.  But the comparison to the regular flu doesn't make any sense, because the regular flu never causes these measures, while the coronavirus is resulting in those measures, and those measures are expanding weekly. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2020, 07:58:51 AM »

Again, I'm not saying there should be radical action.  I'd argue there aren't any special preparedness measure necessary.  But the comparison to the regular flu doesn't make any sense, because the regular flu never causes these measures, while the coronavirus is resulting in those measures, and those measures are expanding weekly.

This ^^^ is the point of my post that you initially replied to.

beltim

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2020, 08:09:23 AM »

Again, I'm not saying there should be radical action.  I'd argue there aren't any special preparedness measure necessary.  But the comparison to the regular flu doesn't make any sense, because the regular flu never causes these measures, while the coronavirus is resulting in those measures, and those measures are expanding weekly.

This ^^^ is the point of my post that you initially replied to.

I think we're talking past each other.  If I were in China, I would be taking measures.  If I lived in Milan, I'd be thinking about it.  If there's a big outbreak in San Diego and I lived in LA, I would take some measures.  None of that is true for the flu - for me, or most other people, so your original response didn't make any sense to me.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2020, 08:14:01 AM »
I think we're talking past each other.  If I were in China, I would be taking measures.  If I lived in Milan, I'd be thinking about it.  If there's a big outbreak in San Diego and I lived in LA, I would take some measures.  None of that is true for the flu - for me, or most other people, so your original response didn't make any sense to me.

We aren't in China or Milan and there isn't a big outbreak in SD or LA. People don't freak out about the seasonal flu. There is no need to freak out about this. That was the point of my post. We actually agree on the meat of the issue. You just seem to want to argue about something I did not say.

I'm happy to drop it.

erutio

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2020, 08:17:16 AM »
N95 Face masks are not available - they sold out weeks ago.  Besides they need to be reserved for hospital staff.

Yes, the flu kills tens of thousands every year (get your flu shots!). This coronavirus will likely be on the order of 200,000 to 1 million deaths in the US. Many public health pronouncements are made to try to prevent panic. However, if major quarantines are put in place in the US it will induce panic, and quite a bit of disruption.

It actually would be much less disruptive if we simply gave up quarantines, accepted it was here , and went about our daily lives. But A)public policy at the moment is still valiantly (and probably vainly) trying to prevent this virus from becoming pandemic (and ultimately an endemic, recurring threat) and B) thereís an (unproven) hope that if it can be delayed, it might turn out to be a seasonal virus that could start to die out in April (only to recur next winter). Combine this with a president who has a documented germophobia and is likely to continue overriding CDC and WHO recommendations based on that fear and I believe we will have quarantines and panic-induced shortages in the near term.

Antibacterial soap is unnecessary (and bad for us) - itís a virus and plain soap or alcohol is effective. Iím not a fan of disposable wipes but I did pick some up for household surfaces like the staircase bannister to protect our cancer patient. Good hand washing is important as current evidence suggests the virus may live on surfaces for days.

It should be noted that most people who test positive for the virus have no symptoms or a mild cold.  The fatality rate being around 1-2%, it's mostly the elderly or those who are immunocompromised who are at risk for death.   It seems like minors have a much milder reaction to the virus. 

I reread my post and it sounds flippant, which I don't mean to be.  I just wanted to put some perspective on it.  Compared to SARS, it is seemingly less fatal but more contagious.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2020, 08:35:53 AM »
We tend to buy things other than fresh produce in bulk to reduce shopping trips and save money, so I donít see any need to change current practices. As an individual, Iím far more concerned about a disruption in work. Iím a freelancer and many of my clients are in China, Japan, and S. Korea. I havenít seen much of a hit yet, but if more countries start imposing shutdowns, my income could be affected significantly. So if anything, I might stash a bit more money in cash rather than in investments in the short-term.

We donít have go bags. If a pandemic hits our area, weíre most likely to be confined to our homes.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2020, 08:45:12 AM »
Quote
We aren't in China or Milan and there isn't a big outbreak in SD or LA.

And what makes you think we are less vulnerable than Milan or Iran??? This is illogical thinking. We are just as likely (if not more so) to have an outbreak. Just because weíve been lucky so far doesnít mean it wonít happen. As I said before, it is highly likely given the behavior of this epidemic that we will be having similar clusters of outbreaks in the US within the month, maybe sooner. It is pretty unlikely we can stop it at this point and scientists are admitting that publicly.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2020, 08:48:12 AM »
N95 Face masks are not available - they sold out weeks ago.  Besides they need to be reserved for hospital staff.

Yes, the flu kills tens of thousands every year (get your flu shots!). This coronavirus will likely be on the order of 200,000 to 1 million deaths in the US. Many public health pronouncements are made to try to prevent panic. However, if major quarantines are put in place in the US it will induce panic, and quite a bit of disruption.


1MM deaths in teh US this year?  From COVID-19?  You are wildly pessimistic - far more so than most epidemiologists.  For that to happen either the virus would have to be far more lethal than currently believed, or more than a quarter of the entire US population would have to contract the virus. 

You don't want an N95 mask - you want a P95 mask.  And as any prepper knows, the proper time to stockpile was before they went out of stock.  They need to be changed every 3 hours to maintain efficacy, so use accordingly.

I'll stress and rephrase this again - the precautions needed mirror those for a bad influenza outbreak, minus the ability to get a vaccine.  With proper health habits a person can acutely reduce the risk of contracting the disease, even if s/he lives in an outbreak area.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2020, 08:54:55 AM »
And what makes you think we are less vulnerable than Milan or Iran??? This is illogical thinking.

I did not say we are less vulnerable than those places. I stated that we are not there. That's factual. FUD is the problem. People freaking out is the problem. It's illogical to freak out.

If CNN reported the statistics for the seasonal flu as a new Dos Equis virus people would be losing their minds and clamouring to get the vaccine. But, we are inured to it so nobody cares and lots of vaccine is sitting on the shelves. The difference is not based on facts it's based on FUD.

It's logical to take reasonable precautions, which in this case is do nothing unusual beyond not travelling to a place with a high concentration of infections. If the logical course of action is not to do anything radical than trying to stem the tide of FUD makes a lot of sense to me.




StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2020, 09:07:21 AM »
I live in an area where people tend to get a little reactive to health news so I have been buying one or two extra shelf stable fruit cups and frozen veggies and pasta type food on the last few grocery trips. We don't generally have much shelf stable food so if I buy a couple of items a week I'll have a small stock if we have panic in a few weeks. I've also been buying a gallon of milk instead of a half gallon because I have seen the grocery store cleared out when we had a flu outbreak bad enough to close schools. I'd rather not run out of staples when my neighbors are freakin' out.

If we don't have a panic then I'll donate most of the shelf stable stuff to my food pantry. My inner bag lady is super strong though so I like to be marginally prepared.





« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 09:33:27 AM by StarBright »

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2020, 09:13:46 AM »
Well we donít have the best grasp on the true fatality rate - a recent statistical estimate was 0.3-0.6 case fatality rate. If 20% of the US population were to be infected (Spanish Flu was 30%) the that would mean 200k to 400k deaths.

However a recent study on the first 200 patients admitted to one hospital in China (all admitted before Jan 12 so presumably before people were being turned away) showed 55 of 201 sent to the ICU, 3 of those died in transit or on arrival, another 32 died in the ICU for a fatality rate of 17.4%. Now obviously, these were cases serious enough to warrant admission. However, if this represented only 10% of those infected and the rest were mild or asymptomatic, the fatality rate would be 1.74%. Italy has 5 deaths already.

So the upper end of my estimate - 1 million US deaths - would hold true if 20% get infected and the fatality rate is actually 1.5%, or if 30% of the population gets infected and the fatality rate is 1 %. Hopefully it will be half that but itís not an unreasonable upper estimate given the little information we have.

SugarMagnolia77

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2020, 09:14:45 AM »
1MM deaths in teh US this year?  From COVID-19?  You are wildly pessimistic - far more so than most epidemiologists.  For that to happen either the virus would have to be far more lethal than currently believed, or more than a quarter of the entire US population would have to contract the virus. 

You don't want an N95 mask - you want a P95 mask.  And as any prepper knows, the proper time to stockpile was before they went out of stock.  They need to be changed every 3 hours to maintain efficacy, so use accordingly.

I'll stress and rephrase this again - the precautions needed mirror those for a bad influenza outbreak, minus the ability to get a vaccine.  With proper health habits a person can acutely reduce the risk of contracting the disease, even if s/he lives in an outbreak area.

I like you.

The data says we shouldn't be freaking out about this. I compare this to when people where I live (the south) think it's going to snow. They're preparing the Storm of the Century while the New Englander in me is making sure we have a few back-up bottles of wine and the ingredients for a new chili or stew.

This is a forum full of people with a rational approach to money. We know how to interpret data. Look at the data and act accordingly.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2020, 09:18:47 AM »
No N95 masks are not available at the hardware store right now. In fact my local Home Depot has NO masks of any kind - that entire section  is empty.

As for food - Italy had its first case maybe 4 days ago and grocery store shelves are already empty. Like others, Iíd rather stick up a bit in advance of the panic.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2020, 09:27:15 AM »
Well we donít have the best grasp on the true fatality rate - a recent statistical estimate was 0.3-0.6 case fatality rate. If 20% of the US population were to be infected (Spanish Flu was 30%) the that would mean 200k to 400k deaths.

However a recent study on the first 200 patients admitted to one hospital in China (all admitted before Jan 12 so presumably before people were being turned away) showed 55 of 201 sent to the ICU, 3 of those died in transit or on arrival, another 32 died in the ICU for a fatality rate of 17.4%. Now obviously, these were cases serious enough to warrant admission. However, if this represented only 10% of those infected and the rest were mild or asymptomatic, the fatality rate would be 1.74%. Italy has 5 deaths already.

So the upper end of my estimate - 1 million US deaths - would hold true if 20% get infected and the fatality rate is actually 1.5%, or if 30% of the population gets infected and the fatality rate is 1 %. Hopefully it will be half that but itís not an unreasonable upper estimate given the little information we have.
Please stop making such wild predictions. It contributes to uninformed hysteria and misinformation.    This is not the influenza pandemic of 1917-1919, and our global health care system is not what it was 100 years ago.

No credible epidemiologist is suggesting that the US will have ~100MM cases from this virus.  Now that we know what this virus is and can monitor and test for it, its pretty clear that the lethality is on the lower end of the spectrum.  As with all outbreaks, as we learn about its effects the mortality rates tail off; that's what we are seeing here.

Transmission is also not a random act of fate.  There is a great deal that individuals can (and should!) do to minimize their risk, and those with very good health habits can push their transmission risk down to negligible numbers in all but the most infected and population-dense locations.

You can find a wealth of up-to-date information here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #25 on: February 24, 2020, 09:31:27 AM »
I'm wondering what has changed that there is a new post today about this? Because as far as I know, nothing has gotten substantially worse. There hasn't been some deadly mutation. There hasn't been some massive increase in infected or deaths above and beyond what can be expected based on what little prior data we have.

I get that it's scary. If your fears are overwhelming your ability to consider the risks rationally, it's time to stop following the news for a bit.

Common sense preparation. Wash your hands. Stay away from sick people.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2020, 09:32:44 AM »
No N95 masks are not available at the hardware store right now. In fact my local Home Depot has NO masks of any kind - that entire section  is empty.

Again, you don't want an N95 mask - you want a P95 mask.  And those must be changed every 3 hours.  Homemade masks are typically worse than worthless, as they can give a false sense of security while providing a surface for the virus to cling to.

Average people who aren't caring for infected individuals don't need a mask.  Just reduce direct physical contact with other people, wash your hands and face frequently and when in doubt eat cooked food.  It's a lot like avoiding the flu.  Transmission can be reduced!

Indio

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #27 on: February 24, 2020, 09:41:25 AM »
I don't consider myself a prepper but I recently made purchases that I was holding off on because they weren't urgent. Now that I'm concerned about potential global supply chain disruptions, I bought earlier than I needed to.

GoCubsGo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #28 on: February 24, 2020, 09:44:42 AM »


 This coronavirus will likely be on the order of 200,000 to 1 million deaths in the US.

Frugaldrummer.  Please let us know your source on this "info".  It's people posting info like that without credible sources that inflame the situation.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #29 on: February 24, 2020, 09:48:49 AM »
My predictions are not wild, they are based on the published research. Iím an MD and have a masters in molecular biology. And I said one million deaths were the upper limit, not 100 million, donít know where you got that.

Iíll post the links to the research papers when I get a minute.

Specialized masks should be saved for hospital workers . They arenít comfortable for daily wear anyway. Fabric masks wonít protect you completely from a fine aerosol but are helpful - protect you from droplets, keep you from touching your mouth and nose, keep YOU from spreading the virus if youíre infected. They should be washed in hot water daily.


Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #30 on: February 24, 2020, 09:52:27 AM »
I have actually been thinking about this today as the infections seem to spread pretty quickly in Italy. I am immunocompromised. I get my flu shots. I've been in hospital with the flu (long time ago). So any disease that's 'only' as bad as the flu I'm seriously going to try to avoid. If the infections spread to our country, I will be working from home & I'll still get paid. But my s/o's job depends on international travellers and if there was a disruption in travelling that could have serious consequences for that business. Luckily we have savings so we'll be fine. I'm not in panic mode but this seems the right time to stock up on some essentials. I don't believe millions of people are going to die but at this point there's a lot we don't know yet and it's usually the best option to be careful.

StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #31 on: February 24, 2020, 09:57:08 AM »
I'm wondering what has changed that there is a new post today about this? Because as far as I know, nothing has gotten substantially worse. There hasn't been some deadly mutation. There hasn't been some massive increase in infected or deaths above and beyond what can be expected based on what little prior data we have.

I get that it's scary. If your fears are overwhelming your ability to consider the risks rationally, it's time to stop following the news for a bit.

Common sense preparation. Wash your hands. Stay away from sick people.

I'm assuming the amped up concern has to do with the weekend count in Italy and that they haven't tracked down "patient zero" there yet. My husband has a conference in Italy in a couple weeks and just got an email that it may be cancelled.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 10:10:08 AM by StarBright »

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #32 on: February 24, 2020, 10:03:24 AM »
My predictions are not wild, they are based on the published research. Iím an MD and have a masters in molecular biology. And I said one million deaths were the upper limit, not 100 million, donít know where you got that.


100MM comes from your own posts, which outstrip current predictions on the severity of the current and potential outbreak by more than an order of magnitude.  You've stated that up 1MM people in the United States will die from COV19.  Given everything we know about the lethality of the disease that would require ~100MM cases.  You even said as much, postulating that 20% to 1/3rd of all people in the US will contract the virus.
FWIW there's about 325MM people in the USA.

From the CDC
The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.
But individual risk is dependent on exposure.
    For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.

I have no idea what you are talking about regarding masks now.  You've already said you've tried to masks (and the incorrect kind), but now are saying they should be saved for hospital workers (?!).  none of them are "daily wear" - as I've said consistently, guidelines require changing them every 3 hours. Homemade fabric masks do not provide a benefit and often increase the likelihood of infection.

Again, please stop with the hyperbole and apocolyptic posts that outstrip everything we know about this virus.  It contributes to hysteria.  There's plenty of good information out there by the CDC and WHO which contracticts your posts. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2020, 10:08:54 AM »
Again, please stop with the hyperbole and apocolyptic posts that outstrip everything we know about this virus.  It contributes to hysteria.  There's plenty of good information out there by the CDC and WHO which contracticts your posts.

Yes please stop with the FUD. It's not helpful.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2020, 10:10:25 AM »
NOWHERE in my posts did I say 100 million, I said one million, you are misreading something.  Here is the link on the 0.3-0.6% fatality rate study:

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419


nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2020, 10:13:37 AM »
NOWHERE in my posts did I say 100 million, I said one million, you are misreading something.   

You said 1MM deaths.
You even did the math yourself.
Please stop.

So the upper end of my estimate - 1 million US deaths - would hold true if 20% get infected and the fatality rate is actually 1.5%, or if 30% of the population gets infected and the fatality rate is 1 %. Hopefully it will be half that but itís not an unreasonable upper estimate given the little information we have.
30% of the US population is 109MM people.

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2020, 10:18:03 AM »
No N95 masks are not available at the hardware store right now. In fact my local Home Depot has NO masks of any kind - that entire section  is empty.

As for food - Italy had its first case maybe 4 days ago and grocery store shelves are already empty. Like others, Iíd rather stick up a bit in advance of the panic.

My Loweís had quite a selection yesterday - we bought some for pottery use. With bonus safety glasses!

Merlion

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #37 on: February 24, 2020, 10:20:42 AM »
Iím expecting infections to pop up in various places over the next couple weeks in large numbers, similar to whatís happening in Italy, Iran, and Korea. This disease should be taken seriously - odds of respiratory distress and other complications seem to be much higher than with the flu, and the risk that a rapid spread poses is overwhelming the medical system - with negative impacts both on those with covid-19 and those with other medical issues. Many of the people in Hubei province in a China who died likely couldíve been saved if adequate medical care (including ventilators) were available.

Iíve stocked up on canned food, and am purchasing out of pocket extra supplies of prescription medications - both because of the potential of local quarantine and also because of the potential of supply disruptions. Hopefully the virus will not spread as easily in hot weather, though there is as of yet no proof of that. Iíd rather be prepared to spend weeks at home and not need the supplies than the opposite.

I like this article about general preparations you can make, both physically and mentally:
https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/




Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #38 on: February 24, 2020, 10:21:01 AM »
The fatality rate in China may be higher than whatís being reported. A reporter who has since disappeared said that 50 crematoriums are running 24/7 and the amount of sulfur dioxide in the air supports this claim. We are retired so would stay home. Since we grocery shop once a month we always have plenty of food available. Since we are over 60 with chronic conditions we are in a high risk group. However, I am not worrying because itís pointless. Whatever is going to happen will. We may have to cancel our month trip to Europe in August.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2020, 10:23:23 AM »
No N95 masks are not available at the hardware store right now. In fact my local Home Depot has NO masks of any kind - that entire section  is empty.

As for food - Italy had its first case maybe 4 days ago and grocery store shelves are already empty. Like others, Iíd rather stick up a bit in advance of the panic.

My Loweís had quite a selection yesterday - we bought some for pottery use. With bonus safety glasses!

We got our shipment of masks to work today just like we do every single Monday.

I've also talked to my friend in Milan - says his grocery store looks pretty much like it always does.  Are there localized shortages?  Probably - but I'm calling BS on this claim that "[in] Italy ... grocery stores shelves are already empty"

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #40 on: February 24, 2020, 10:32:42 AM »
The fatality rate in China may be higher than whatís being reported. A reporter who has since disappeared said that 50 crematoriums are running 24/7 and the amount of sulfur dioxide in the air supports this claim. We are retired so would stay home. Since we grocery shop once a month we always have plenty of food available. Since we are over 60 with chronic conditions we are in a high risk group. However, I am not worrying because itís pointless. Whatever is going to happen will. We may have to cancel our month trip to Europe in August.

Yes, weíre going to Italy on a big family trip in May. Iím starting to wonder about that.

Sibley

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #41 on: February 24, 2020, 10:33:45 AM »
I'm wondering what has changed that there is a new post today about this? Because as far as I know, nothing has gotten substantially worse. There hasn't been some deadly mutation. There hasn't been some massive increase in infected or deaths above and beyond what can be expected based on what little prior data we have.

I get that it's scary. If your fears are overwhelming your ability to consider the risks rationally, it's time to stop following the news for a bit.

Common sense preparation. Wash your hands. Stay away from sick people.

I'm assuming the amped up concern has to do with the weekend count in Italy and that they haven't tracked down "patient zero" there yet. My husband has a conference in Italy in a couple weeks and just got an email that it may be cancelled.

Got it. So some people are panicking, which then spills out which then makes others panic.

Frugaldrummer - You are part of the problem right now. Stop it. I don't care if you're an MD, right now, you're not helping. DO NO HARM. If you have an anxiety diagnosis, you need to pull out your coping mechanisms and stop inflicting your anxiety on unsuspecting people. If you're just a worrier, you need to stop inflicting your worries on unsuspecting people. It's a virus. People will get sick. Some people will die. It's new, so no one has immunity which means if you come into contact, it's much more likely you'll get it. However, transmission can easily be mitigated by simple precautions that are effective against pretty much every respiratory illness. Wash your hands. Avoid sick people. If you get sick, cover your cough, sneeze into your elbow, and stay home.

Merlion

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #42 on: February 24, 2020, 10:35:35 AM »
Please stop making such wild predictions. It contributes to uninformed hysteria and misinformation.    This is not the influenza pandemic of 1917-1919, and our global health care system is not what it was 100 years ago.

No credible epidemiologist is suggesting that the US will have ~100MM cases from this virus.  Now that we know what this virus is and can monitor and test for it, its pretty clear that the lethality is on the lower end of the spectrum.  As with all outbreaks, as we learn about its effects the mortality rates tail off; that's what we are seeing here.

Transmission is also not a random act of fate.  There is a great deal that individuals can (and should!) do to minimize their risk, and those with very good health habits can push their transmission risk down to negligible numbers in all but the most infected and population-dense locations.

You can find a wealth of up-to-date information here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

In fact, Marc Lipsitch, Harvard Professor of Epidemiology and Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, has said he expects 40-70% of the worldwide population to be infected over the next year. The question is about what % will be symptomatic (and what % of those will be severe cases)

Cassie

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #43 on: February 24, 2020, 10:37:03 AM »
Cranky, my kids are going on this trip and will probably go regardless because they are in their 40ís and healthy. 

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2020, 10:39:11 AM »
I am not panicking, but my philosophy is "better safe than sorry," meaning that I am stocking up on food for myself and pets.  The likelihood of there being a serious problem where I live in small-town Canada is probably pretty low, but I just feel better being somewhat more prepared.  I had been eating down my stocks of food in order to defrost the freezer anyway, which I have done, so time to stock back up.  Nothing drastic.

That said, I DO NOT trust the figures coming out of China about any of the aspects of this virus, be it total numbers, percentage of serious illness/deaths or whatever.  There also seems to be consensus now that the virus can be spread by people who do not feel or appear ill.  So avoiding sick people may not totally keep one safe.  Colds and flus have been very prevalent around here this winter, and I regularly see people coughing and sneezing all over the place, so don't trust others to have a lot of conscientiousness in protecting others.  I'd be quite happy to not have to go into crowds if/when coronavirus does hit.

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #45 on: February 24, 2020, 10:45:23 AM »
Please stop making such wild predictions. It contributes to uninformed hysteria and misinformation.    This is not the influenza pandemic of 1917-1919, and our global health care system is not what it was 100 years ago.

No credible epidemiologist is suggesting that the US will have ~100MM cases from this virus.  Now that we know what this virus is and can monitor and test for it, its pretty clear that the lethality is on the lower end of the spectrum.  As with all outbreaks, as we learn about its effects the mortality rates tail off; that's what we are seeing here.

Transmission is also not a random act of fate.  There is a great deal that individuals can (and should!) do to minimize their risk, and those with very good health habits can push their transmission risk down to negligible numbers in all but the most infected and population-dense locations.

You can find a wealth of up-to-date information here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

In fact, Marc Lipsitch, Harvard Professor of Epidemiology and Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, has said he expects 40-70% of the worldwide population to be infected over the next year. The question is about what % will be symptomatic (and what % of those will be severe cases)

Would appreciate a link to the source.  From what I've read, Lipsitch is echoing an R0 (additional transmissions) of between 1-2 and like the WHO agrees it has pandemic potential, but I have not seen the 40-70% claim.  It is interesting that many of those testing positive now from the Princess had very mild, 'cold-like' symptoms.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #46 on: February 24, 2020, 10:49:38 AM »
Yes that would be 100 million infections - most of them mild - with 500k to one million deaths.

Hereís the other article: (part of it, working on my phone)
 
www.thelancet.com/respiratory
Published online February 21, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30079-5
1
Articles
Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study
 Xiaobo Yang*, Yuan Yu*, Jiqian Xu*, Huaqing Shu*, Jiaían Xia*, Hong Liu*, Yongran Wu, Lu Zhang, Zhui Yu, Minghao Fang, Ting Yu, Yaxin Wang, Shangwen Pan, Xiaojing Zou, Shiying Yuan, You Shang
Summary
Background
An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in December, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Information about critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is scarce. We aimed to describe the clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.
Methods
In this single-centered, retrospective, observational study, we enrolled 52 critically ill adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital (Wuhan, China) between late December, 2019, and Jan 26, 2020. Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected. Data were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, as of Feb 9, 2020. Secondary outcomes included incidence of SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation.
Findings
Of 710 patients with

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #47 on: February 24, 2020, 10:52:03 AM »
Here's the proper link. This is the study of 200 early Chinese admissions with a 65% mortality rate in the 52 patients that had to go to the ICU. Obviously the patients admitted to the hospital do not include the likely 90% of cases that are mild or asymptomatc.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 11:00:03 AM by frugaldrummer »

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #48 on: February 24, 2020, 10:58:43 AM »
And here is the article that estimated the 0.3-0.6% fatality rate per infection:

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419

No I do NOT have any kind of anxiety disorder. In fact I believe the quarantines cause more problems and none of this preparation - except for hand washing and masks - would be needed if not for the disruption that ineffective quarantines will cause.

As I've said before, these are not zombie apocalypse numbers, but possibly 4- 10 times an ordinary flu seasons deaths. It WILL impact hospital ICUs, and if our government pursues a mass quarantine option like China, THAT will cause a lot of disruption and panic. I think home quarantine would have been the better idea from the get go.  I also have to be extra concerned because of the immune-compromised patient in my household.

I'm not panicked about it, just preparing for the possibility of quarantines. I've not said anything here that isn't born out by the current research.  My expectation of quarantines does not stem from the science - the horse is out of the barn and you cannot control a virus where 90% of cases are mild or asymptomatic. My expectation of quarantines is based on the history of our president's remarks in the past about Ebola and his well - known germophobia that I think will affect his decision making.

« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 11:02:13 AM by frugaldrummer »

nereo

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2020, 11:00:55 AM »
Here's the proper link. This is the study of 200 early Chinese admissions with a 65% mortality rate in the 52 oatients that had to go to the ICU. Obviously the patients admitted to the hospital do not include the likely 90% of cases that are mild or asymptomatc.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext
Again.  you can't extrapolate globally based on a limited number of the earliest cases, before anyone knew what this was, what the likely symptoms were or how best to care for infected patients. No one is saying this has a 65% mortality rate. 

Your own linked sources suggest a mortality rate of 0.3-0.6%.  That number is 40% lower (on both ends) than your OP claiming it was likely to be 0.5%-1%, and substantially lower than the 1.5% you've also suggested trying to defend how we could have 1MM deaths here in the US

Here are some official guidelines about how to avoid contracting the virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html