Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 87955 times)

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #900 on: May 29, 2021, 05:23:03 AM »
Well we donít have the best grasp on the true fatality rate - a recent statistical estimate was 0.3-0.6 case fatality rate. If 20% of the US population were to be infected (Spanish Flu was 30%) the that would mean 200k to 400k deaths.

However a recent study on the first 200 patients admitted to one hospital in China (all admitted before Jan 12 so presumably before people were being turned away) showed 55 of 201 sent to the ICU, 3 of those died in transit or on arrival, another 32 died in the ICU for a fatality rate of 17.4%. Now obviously, these were cases serious enough to warrant admission. However, if this represented only 10% of those infected and the rest were mild or asymptomatic, the fatality rate would be 1.74%. Italy has 5 deaths already.

So the upper end of my estimate - 1 million US deaths - would hold true if 20% get infected and the fatality rate is actually 1.5%, or if 30% of the population gets infected and the fatality rate is 1 %. Hopefully it will be half that but itís not an unreasonable upper estimate given the little information we have.
Please stop making such wild predictions. It contributes to uninformed hysteria and misinformation.    This is not the influenza pandemic of 1917-1919, and our global health care system is not what it was 100 years ago.

No credible epidemiologist is suggesting that the US will have ~100MM cases from this virus.  Now that we know what this virus is and can monitor and test for it, its pretty clear that the lethality is on the lower end of the spectrum.  As with all outbreaks, as we learn about its effects the mortality rates tail off; that's what we are seeing here.

Transmission is also not a random act of fate.  There is a great deal that individuals can (and should!) do to minimize their risk, and those with very good health habits can push their transmission risk down to negligible numbers in all but the most infected and population-dense locations.

You can find a wealth of up-to-date information here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

It really was just like the 1917 flu pandemic.

I don't know where we'd be right now if the vaccines hadn't come through so quickly. And still hundreds of americans dying every day. And millions refusing the vaccine. We might hit a million deaths yet.  :(

Sadly - over 400 people who were fully vaccinated have died of covid anyway.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

This isn't as over as we'd like to believe.

Yes. We're at 608K deaths as of this morning, and 34 million confirmed cases (although the actual number is likely much higher). Countries that effectively squelched the first waves, like Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, are having a lot more trouble with highly contagious variants this spring: Vietnam detects highly contagious new coronavirus variant as infections surge (Wash. Post)

The 1918 flu pandemic stretched on for a bit over 2 years, with 3 big US waves in the first year. Very little suggests that the COVID pandemic isn't following the same trajectory.

Shane

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #901 on: May 29, 2021, 08:41:44 PM »
Measuring Mortality In The Pandemics Of 1918Ė19 And 2020Ė21

"Any mortality comparisons between these two pandemics in the United States, 2020 and 1918, must differentiate between totals and rates. The current US population, a little more than 330 million, is more than three times larger than the population in 1918, estimated at 105 million. The 675,000 deaths attributed to the influenza epidemic made up 0.64 percent of the total population, a little more than six in every thousand people. By contrast, the more than 500,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 make up about 0.15 percent of the total population, or between one and two in every thousand people. If COVID-19 caused deaths at the same rate as the 1918 epidemic, the total would approach two million. Even the disturbing projections of more than to 600,000 deaths by July 1, 2021, would still remain below the rates recorded in the earlier epidemic."

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #902 on: May 30, 2021, 05:16:49 AM »
I think itís worth factoring in the improvements in medical care since 1918, though.

Mr. Green

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #903 on: May 30, 2021, 03:58:17 PM »
I think itís worth factoring in the improvements in medical care since 1918, though.
Probably safe to say every person who went to the ICU for COVID would have died 100 years ago.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #904 on: May 31, 2021, 01:15:37 PM »
I think itís worth factoring in the improvements in medical care since 1918, though.
Probably safe to say every person who went to the ICU for COVID would have died 100 years ago.

Probably everyone who got oxygen would have died in 1918. The use of oxygen for pneumonia was first discovered in 1890 and in WWI oxygen was used on soldiers exposed to poison gas but oxygen therapy as we know it wasn't the norm before the 1960s.

dougules

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #905 on: June 03, 2021, 10:28:40 AM »
How drastic were the mitigations like lockdowns and mask mandates in the 1918 pandemic?  People present numbers of deaths as how bad COVID is, but that number was very heavily mitigated by really drastic changes in how society functions. 

Mr. Green

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #906 on: June 03, 2021, 11:34:47 AM »
How drastic were the mitigations like lockdowns and mask mandates in the 1918 pandemic?  People present numbers of deaths as how bad COVID is, but that number was very heavily mitigated by really drastic changes in how society functions.
I don't know about lockdowns but I've seen photographs from that time period that indicated those refusing to wear masks would be jailed. They may have had more balls back then than we do now.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #907 on: June 03, 2021, 12:41:59 PM »
How drastic were the mitigations like lockdowns and mask mandates in the 1918 pandemic?  People present numbers of deaths as how bad COVID is, but that number was very heavily mitigated by really drastic changes in how society functions.
I don't know about lockdowns but I've seen photographs from that time period that indicated those refusing to wear masks would be jailed. They may have had more balls back then than we do now.

A great number of people were jailed during the 1918 pandemic for failing to follow mask guidelines.
https://crosscut.com/2020/07/mask-wars-1918-flu-pandemic
https://www.history.com/news/1918-spanish-flu-mask-wearing-resistance

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #908 on: July 11, 2021, 04:37:22 PM »
Hi all - OP here, havenít been around in some time, hope you all are well. I am well and fully vaccinated, as are my family members. Even my boyfriend with stage 4 lung cancer is still here and managed to avoid Covid, despite monthly chemo visits to the clinic.
I thought Iíd share my thoughts about where we are now in regards to Covid, and what Iím doing.

First of all, people are acting as if Covid is over, and it is not. Some initial assumptions about what it would take to reach herd immunity have been changed due to the Delta (and other) variants. 70% of people with immunity may not be high enough with the increased infectiousness of the Delta variant. Measles requires a 95% vaccination rate for herd immunity. The Delta variant will probably require at least over 80%.

Yes, if you are vaccinated, your personal risk of dying from Covid is quite low. Over 99% of Covid deaths right now are in the unvaccinated (vaccines work!!!).  But you have at least a 10% risk of developing an asymptomatic or mild case of Covid, which you could then transmit to other vulnerable people, like the un-vaccinated (including children) or immunocompromised. (Possibly a higher risk, based on recent data out of Israel). So to protect OTHERS and to speed reaching herd immunity, I still recommend mask wearing if you are indoors in public (like the grocery store, movie theaters etc. ) . Outdoors is probably safe to be unmasked if youíre not in a tight crowd.

Some states and counties with very low vaccination rates are already seeing an upswing in Covid hospitalizations. If you live in those areas Iíd be extra careful and follow your local county statistics.

I know there has been some talk about a vaccination for children under 12 by fall; Iím guessing more like the beginning of 2022. No inside knowledge, just this is a slightly more complex trial than the approval for 12-17 year olds. Teens are basically adults when it comes to dosing most things. Approving the vaccine for children requires figuring out the proper dosing for different ages and/or weights, and so requires a more complicated trial I imagine.

A great source for analysis of Covid news from a scientific perspective is the blog Your Local Epidemiologist).

Many of my patients ask me about booster shots. This is really a two part question:
How long will the immunity from our vaccines last? We donít know yet. Theyíre holding up well so far. Could be an annual shot, if could be more like tetanus with an every 5 year shot. Wonít know for a while.

When will we need a booster for variants? Fortunately, the three vaccines we have in the US still give us pretty good immunity against serious disease from the Delta variant. This may change in the future. Moderna already is 3 months into a clinical trial of a booster targeting the South African mutation which is part of the Delta variant. Or simply getting a third shot of the existing vaccine, as Pfizer is proposing, may boost immunity so much that new variants are not so much a threat.

I expect 3-4 years until the rest of the world has reach herd immunity and variants stop cropping up.

How all this will affect our finances is guesswork. What I am doing personally is still wearing a mask in public and at work, still requiring patients to wear masks in the office, socializing only with small groups of vaccinated and careful people. I will attend an outdoor seated concert in August and plan to wear a mask. I still donít eat at restaurants, I get takeout. Iím more cautious than some because I have a vulnerable person at home and I donít want to risk getting an asymptomatic case.

I have seen 10-20% of my unvaccinated patients who had mild to moderate outpatient Covid cases develop long term consequences. Even in young healthy people. And almost all the Covid deaths today would have been prevented with a vaccine. My sister lost a friend last month because he was unvaccinated.

« Last Edit: July 11, 2021, 07:27:58 PM by frugaldrummer »

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #909 on: July 11, 2021, 06:16:55 PM »
Thanks for this @frugaldrummer !

I was at the mall yesterday, and most of the people were unmasked. We have an approximately 16% fully vaccinated rate, and our vaccines appear to be between 50-70% effective. Of course, we also have very tight border controls, strong contact tracing, and 2 weeks mandatory government quarantine as well as 1 week home monitoring for incoming folks, so we have very few locally transmitted cases. It's still a good reminder to stay vigilant though.

DaMa

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #910 on: July 12, 2021, 08:41:55 PM »
Thanks from me too, @frugaldrummer.

Anecdotally, I know four people who are not vaccinated, and they are not wearing masks anymore at all.

wenchsenior

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #911 on: July 13, 2021, 09:03:11 AM »
Hi all - OP here, havenít been around in some time, hope you all are well. I am well and fully vaccinated, as are my family members. Even my boyfriend with stage 4 lung cancer is still here and managed to avoid Covid, despite monthly chemo visits to the clinic.
I thought Iíd share my thoughts about where we are now in regards to Covid, and what Iím doing.

First of all, people are acting as if Covid is over, and it is not. Some initial assumptions about what it would take to reach herd immunity have been changed due to the Delta (and other) variants. 70% of people with immunity may not be high enough with the increased infectiousness of the Delta variant. Measles requires a 95% vaccination rate for herd immunity. The Delta variant will probably require at least over 80%.

Yes, if you are vaccinated, your personal risk of dying from Covid is quite low. Over 99% of Covid deaths right now are in the unvaccinated (vaccines work!!!).  But you have at least a 10% risk of developing an asymptomatic or mild case of Covid, which you could then transmit to other vulnerable people, like the un-vaccinated (including children) or immunocompromised. (Possibly a higher risk, based on recent data out of Israel). So to protect OTHERS and to speed reaching herd immunity, I still recommend mask wearing if you are indoors in public (like the grocery store, movie theaters etc. ) . Outdoors is probably safe to be unmasked if youíre not in a tight crowd.

Some states and counties with very low vaccination rates are already seeing an upswing in Covid hospitalizations. If you live in those areas Iíd be extra careful and follow your local county statistics.

I know there has been some talk about a vaccination for children under 12 by fall; Iím guessing more like the beginning of 2022. No inside knowledge, just this is a slightly more complex trial than the approval for 12-17 year olds. Teens are basically adults when it comes to dosing most things. Approving the vaccine for children requires figuring out the proper dosing for different ages and/or weights, and so requires a more complicated trial I imagine.

A great source for analysis of Covid news from a scientific perspective is the blog Your Local Epidemiologist).

Many of my patients ask me about booster shots. This is really a two part question:
How long will the immunity from our vaccines last? We donít know yet. Theyíre holding up well so far. Could be an annual shot, if could be more like tetanus with an every 5 year shot. Wonít know for a while.

When will we need a booster for variants? Fortunately, the three vaccines we have in the US still give us pretty good immunity against serious disease from the Delta variant. This may change in the future. Moderna already is 3 months into a clinical trial of a booster targeting the South African mutation which is part of the Delta variant. Or simply getting a third shot of the existing vaccine, as Pfizer is proposing, may boost immunity so much that new variants are not so much a threat.

I expect 3-4 years until the rest of the world has reach herd immunity and variants stop cropping up.

How all this will affect our finances is guesswork. What I am doing personally is still wearing a mask in public and at work, still requiring patients to wear masks in the office, socializing only with small groups of vaccinated and careful people. I will attend an outdoor seated concert in August and plan to wear a mask. I still donít eat at restaurants, I get takeout. Iím more cautious than some because I have a vulnerable person at home and I donít want to risk getting an asymptomatic case.

I have seen 10-20% of my unvaccinated patients who had mild to moderate outpatient Covid cases develop long term consequences. Even in young healthy people. And almost all the Covid deaths today would have been prevented with a vaccine. My sister lost a friend last month because he was unvaccinated.

This is what we are doing as well.  I have a history of weird and disturbing autoimmune responses to standard mild cold viruses, so I really do not want to get this disease. And I have a high risk mother that I see regularly.  My husband's stepfather just died of Covid (vocal anti-masker).  We view this as a long way from being over.  My husband keeps talking about taking a vacation, but honestly I think by fall (when we are likely to be able to do it), there will be hotspots all over the place so I am unsure about making any hard plans, esp that involve air travel.  I'm not even super excited at the prospect of plane travel right now, when case rates are pretty low.  Apart from anything associated with said hypothetical vacation that might or might not happen, we have no plans to eat in restaurants or go to movies or or indoor concerts or anything that involves crowds indoors.  No big loss there, we don't really miss it that much. We will continue to swim for exercise at the outdoor pool or the very huge, high ceiling indoor pool (depending on local case rates and crowding) but not go to the gym/weight room.  Other exercise will be done outdoors, where we've never bothered to mask anyway this past year plus (we are in an area where there's plenty of room to social distance while out walking).

I'm uneasy about how fall will go, with my husband teaching a college class. I'm concerned about it b/c I am not confident he'll be able to enforce masking among his students (the campus lifted all mask restrictions, and it's TX, so the government is anti-mask), and there's a field trip component where people are all crammed into vans for hours on end.  That component was cancelled last year and it sucked b/c it is a big element of the class, and the fun element.

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #912 on: July 13, 2021, 09:43:28 AM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

wenchsenior

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #913 on: July 13, 2021, 11:05:07 AM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

FiL was in denial that he even had Covid until he was very close to death, from what I heard. Several other family members (at least some of whom were anti-vax, pro-Trump, Covid is a 'conspiracy') were also hospitalized from the same exposure event. At least one of those people (husband's mother) had previously told my husband she'd been vaccinated, but we're not convinced she wasn't lying to keep him from badgering her about it. She was certainly pro-Trump and also aligned with the kind of evangelicals who were buying into the 'Covid is a hoax' propaganda, so either she wasn't vaccinated (but told us she was), she had the vaccine too close to the exposure and got infected anyway, or she had a 'breakthrough' case so virulent that she ended up in a hospital for 10 days. I suspect Occam's razor...she lied to my husband about getting the vaccine.

I'm not sure if these family members have changed their opinion or not, having been hospitalized. It didn't change Trump's tune, after all. My husband didn't ask...he tries to keep politics completely out of his conversations with family b/c otherwise he wouldn't be able to tolerate said conversations.


Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #914 on: July 13, 2021, 12:16:01 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #915 on: July 13, 2021, 12:31:55 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Wait three days and we'll be pretty darned close.
- Indoor gatherings up to 25 people (exception for religious services and ceremonies like weddings/funerals which have no maximums)
- Outdoor social gatherings and events of up to 100 people
Larger religious services and other ceremonies like weddings and funerals can happen indoors with physical distancing measures in place.
- Indoor dining with no limits on the numbers of people
- Nightclubs opening to 25% capacity
- Indoor sporting events opening to 50% capacity (75% capacity if they're outdoors)
- Fully open retail
etc.

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #916 on: July 13, 2021, 12:35:10 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Wait three days and we'll be pretty darned close.
- Indoor gatherings up to 25 people (exception for religious services and ceremonies like weddings/funerals which have no maximums)
- Outdoor social gatherings and events of up to 100 people
Larger religious services and other ceremonies like weddings and funerals can happen indoors with physical distancing measures in place.
- Indoor dining with no limits on the numbers of people
- Nightclubs opening to 25% capacity
- Indoor sporting events opening to 50% capacity (75% capacity if they're outdoors)
- Fully open retail
etc.

But still requiring social distancing and masks, right?

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #917 on: July 13, 2021, 12:40:25 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Wait three days and we'll be pretty darned close.
- Indoor gatherings up to 25 people (exception for religious services and ceremonies like weddings/funerals which have no maximums)
- Outdoor social gatherings and events of up to 100 people
Larger religious services and other ceremonies like weddings and funerals can happen indoors with physical distancing measures in place.
- Indoor dining with no limits on the numbers of people
- Nightclubs opening to 25% capacity
- Indoor sporting events opening to 50% capacity (75% capacity if they're outdoors)
- Fully open retail
etc.

But still requiring social distancing and masks, right?

I think so?  Federally they've said that there's no reason to wear masks if you're fully vaccinated, but the Ontario rules appear to require that business owners enforce mask wearing in all cases.  Of course, there's no enforcement of that rule by most businesses . . . so I expect that it will become more and more spotty.

Malcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #918 on: July 13, 2021, 12:45:39 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Wait three days and we'll be pretty darned close.
- Indoor gatherings up to 25 people (exception for religious services and ceremonies like weddings/funerals which have no maximums)
- Outdoor social gatherings and events of up to 100 people
Larger religious services and other ceremonies like weddings and funerals can happen indoors with physical distancing measures in place.
- Indoor dining with no limits on the numbers of people
- Nightclubs opening to 25% capacity
- Indoor sporting events opening to 50% capacity (75% capacity if they're outdoors)
- Fully open retail
etc.

But still requiring social distancing and masks, right?

I think so?  Federally they've said that there's no reason to wear masks if you're fully vaccinated, but the Ontario rules appear to require that business owners enforce mask wearing in all cases.  Of course, there's no enforcement of that rule by most businesses . . . so I expect that it will become more and more spotty.

Hmm, it will be interesting to see what happens here. So far everyone is still very masked everywhere, so it will be interesting to see how it looks over the next month.

SunnyDays

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #919 on: July 13, 2021, 01:13:26 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Alberta has dropped most restrictions, even masking (except in care homes or public transit).  Not sure about the distancing.  There are no longer restrictions against gatherings of any size, anywhere.  Jason Kenny was on TV crowing about the province being the first in Canada to open up.  We'll see if that comes back to bite him later.

I think Saskatchewan has taken a similar road.

Stashasaurus

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #920 on: July 13, 2021, 01:42:02 PM »
Yes we have. Mask mandate is gone. No restrictions on gatherings as of 2021-07-11. Some businesses have not changed their policies, ie masks are required in their store, but most have.

dougules

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #921 on: July 13, 2021, 02:28:24 PM »
Down here masks have all but disappeared despite only 1/3 of the population being fully vaccinated in this state.   COVID cases are the lowest they've been since the beginning of the pandemic, but it's the middle of the summer, and the delta variant isn't that common here yet.   I hope it stays quiet, but honestly I will be very surprised if we make it to next spring without another serious wave. 

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #922 on: July 13, 2021, 02:31:58 PM »
Haven't worn a mask in over a month

dougules

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #923 on: July 13, 2021, 03:01:51 PM »
Haven't worn a mask in over a month

I haven't either, but that's how long I've been fully vaccinated. 

SotI

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #924 on: July 13, 2021, 03:39:01 PM »
Being in the low risk/low priority group in the region I live in, I have not yet been vaccinated, so I am still very careful about social distancing and masking. Fortunately, incidents are low here (still) and we are not expected to return to office regularly before September.
Hopefully, vaccination will be resolved by then (been hoping for J&J but not so sure if they are not pulling the vector vaccines at all here based on the reported side effects).

I am closely following the developments in the UK.
And I find the DrBeen Medical Lectures on Youtube quite comprehensible regarding the immunological processes in the body, his drawings are quite memorable.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #925 on: July 13, 2021, 03:46:44 PM »
Haven't worn a mask in over a month

I haven't either, but that's how long I've been fully vaccinated.

That seems rather irresponsible to me, especially given frugaldrummerís post above, in particular, this quote:

Quote
Yes, if you are vaccinated, your personal risk of dying from Covid is quite low. Over 99% of Covid deaths right now are in the unvaccinated (vaccines work!!!).  But you have at least a 10% risk of developing an asymptomatic or mild case of Covid, which you could then transmit to other vulnerable people, like the un-vaccinated (including children) or immunocompromised. (Possibly a higher risk, based on recent data out of Israel). So to protect OTHERS and to speed reaching herd immunity, I still recommend mask wearing if you are indoors in public (like the grocery store, movie theaters etc. ) . Outdoors is probably safe to be unmasked if youíre not in a tight crowd.

I think it continues to make sense to mask up when in crowded public places, if only to protect those who are weaker or in a more susceptible cohort than I. We try to teach our children to be empathetic and develop executive-functioning skills including perspective-taking skills, we claim teamwork and prosocial skills contribute to happier people and better leadership skills which help us in our careers, we expect others to see our point of view, but sometimes, it looks like our actions are inconsistent with our words.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2021, 03:51:58 PM by Freedomin5 »

v8rx7guy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #926 on: July 13, 2021, 04:10:04 PM »
Haven't worn a mask in over a month

I haven't either, but that's how long I've been fully vaccinated.

That seems rather irresponsible to me, especially given frugaldrummer’s post above, in particular, this quote:

Quote
Yes, if you are vaccinated, your personal risk of dying from Covid is quite low. Over 99% of Covid deaths right now are in the unvaccinated (vaccines work!!!).  But you have at least a 10% risk of developing an asymptomatic or mild case of Covid, which you could then transmit to other vulnerable people, like the un-vaccinated (including children) or immunocompromised. (Possibly a higher risk, based on recent data out of Israel). So to protect OTHERS and to speed reaching herd immunity, I still recommend mask wearing if you are indoors in public (like the grocery store, movie theaters etc. ) . Outdoors is probably safe to be unmasked if you’re not in a tight crowd.

I’m still choosing to mask up when in crowded public places, if only to protect those who are weaker or in a more susceptible cohort than I. We try to teach our children to be empathetic and develop executive-functioning skills including perspective-taking skills, we claim teamwork and prosocial skills contribute to happier people and better leadership skills which help us in our careers, we expect others to see our point of view, but sometimes, it looks like our actions are inconsistent with our words.

Me (fully vaccinated for well over a month now) = not concerned about 10% chance of asymptomatic / mild case of covid or small chance of long term effects... essentially assuming it will happen at some point in my lifetime.  Even some of the the most diligent people I know contracted covid during this pandemic.  Curve is flat, hospitals are not overrun.

Children = not at any appreciable amount of risk compared to many other things in life (have 3 children of my own).  Curve is flat, hospitals are not overrun.

Immunocompromised = nothing has changed, had to take personal precautions and risk assess pre-covid for a multitude of diseases.  Even after herd immunity, nothing will change as there will still be a risk of developing COVID or some form of it for the rest of their lives.  I do have empathy for these people, life has been and will be hard for them, but fully vaccinated people running around the rest of their lives pretending like they MIGHT be sick in the name of protecting others is just silly. Curve is flat, hospitals are not overrun.

People who choose not to be vaccinated = their choice, their risk.  Let them get sick, the curve is flattened and our hospitals are not overrun.

I believe in the science of vaccines and choose not wear a mask unless required by law (medical facilities, public transport, etc.) .
« Last Edit: July 13, 2021, 04:19:07 PM by v8rx7guy »

elaine amj

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #927 on: July 14, 2021, 12:42:15 AM »
We are all now fully vaccinated and case counts are very low in our region of Ontario. I've been staying on top news and studies to continue assessing our risks to determine what is safe for us to do. Our houshold is fairly high risk. That said, from everything I can see, I do feel a decent amount of trust in the vaccine.

I am generally comfortable in outdoor spaces, we've been dining on patios and am considering indoor dining when they reopen in a few days. I have been in close contact indoors with several others outside my bubble. I have also been in semi-close contact outdoors with a few unvaccinated friends and given local case counts are in the single digits, I am thinking of spending time with them indoors in the near future.

Still deciding just how many people we feel comfortable being exposed to. A couple of weeks ago, we were at a backyard party that was supposed to be for a dozen ppl where neighbors unexpectedly increased the numbers to 30-40ppl. I was polite and had short chats with a few people and then kept my distance, only spending my time with the original group. On the other hand, my 72yr old mother excitedly talked at length to anyone and everyone.

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Shane

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #928 on: July 14, 2021, 09:05:16 AM »
As we are all fully vaccinated, my immediate family and I don't wear masks anymore, unless required to by law, e.g., on a plane. Totally understand and empathize with people who can't get vaccinated, as we have a close relative who recently underwent transplant surgery. As others have pointed out, though, transplant patients were at great personal risk of contracting any and all diseases before covid, and they will continue to be at risk from colds, flus, etc, long after covid is no longer a mainstream concern. As far as kids under 12 goes, they are at about the same risk from covid as they are from the common yearly flu. Recently, we've gone back to eating inside restaurants, drinking beer in neigborhood brew pubs, going to movies, and generally living our lives as normal. It feels great that the world is finally coming back! Sorry, but I give exactly zero fucks if the anti-vaxxers get sick from Covid. They deserve it. Anti-vaxxers are choosing not only to put themselves at risk from covid, but they are also responsible for dragging the pandemic out, completely unnecessarily. We have friends who live in Europe and some in 3rd World countries, who would LOVE to get vaccinated, but can't, because either their country is too poor to afford sufficient vaccine doses, or they are not yet eligible, because of their age, risk factors, etc. Where we live, anyone 12 years of age or older can get a dose of one of the covid vaccines TODAY, no questions asked. People who are choosing not to take advantage of the great privilege we have here in the US to get free covid vaccinations are totally on their own, as far as I'm concerned.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2021, 11:48:57 AM by Shane »

HMman

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #929 on: July 14, 2021, 09:36:23 AM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Alberta has dropped most restrictions, even masking (except in care homes or public transit).  Not sure about the distancing.  There are no longer restrictions against gatherings of any size, anywhere.  Jason Kenny was on TV crowing about the province being the first in Canada to open up.  We'll see if that comes back to bite him later.

I think Saskatchewan has taken a similar road.

Slight thread derail, but the next few weeks will be interesting to watch here, as that will be when we start to see if the Stampede-motivated re-openings caused a lot of spread. I'm about 55% sure the provincial opening strategy was determined by working backwards from the Calgary Stampede date, as opposed to public health considerations... It's frustrating that our premier pushed the opening up of Alberta while we're still in the thick of getting the second doses out - if he had even waited another couple of months, we'd be in a much stronger position to be loosening restrictions.

As far as kids under 12 goes, they are at MUCH greater risk from the common yearly flu than they are from covid.

This doesn't pass the smell test for me. Looking at the most recent Canadian data before the pandemic, we had 1352 pediatric (age < 16) hospitalized flu cases, which was a bit higher than the 5-year average of 888. Of these, there were 271 ICU admissions and 10 deaths. (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2018-2019/annual-report.html) For the COVID epidemic in the age < 19 group, we've had 1374 hospitalizations, 163 ICU admissions, and 14 deaths as of July 9. (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html) Considering that, over the same time frame, incidences of the flu have been negligible, this would seem to suggest that COVID is much more dangerous - even with all the measures taken, hospitalizations, deaths, and ICU admissions have been roughly the same as a flu season where there was no masking, distancing, etc.

Shane

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #930 on: July 14, 2021, 10:56:09 AM »
In this NPR interview they say kids are at about as much risk from covid as they are from the yearly flu, i.e., not much. Can't find it now, but read somewhere else that 4X the number of "children" die from the flu in a normal year as died from covid in 2020. That statistic may or may not have been accurate, but since I can't find the original article, I edited my earlier post. Pretty sure, risk depends greatly on how you define "children". Twelve to sixteen year olds are already eligible for vaccination. So, we're only really talking about "children" 0-11 years old, who are at risk, however small, from covid, but still can't get vaccinated. I've read that infants are at greater risk from covid than the flu, which doesn't seem that surprising. Even though an infant and a 17 year old are both "children" as far as the law is concerned, it seems kind of dumb to lump babies and teenagers into the same category, when discussing their response to a disease.

From the NPR interview linked above:

"HARRIS: In children, at least, the risk of serious consequences for COVID is about the same as the risk they face from the flu, she says. But many parents seem more worried about the new and less familiar disease. That anxiety is heightened with new guidelines around mask-wearing. Gretchen Chapman studies health conundrums like this at Carnegie Mellon University.

GRETCHEN CHAPMAN: If you stop going into stores because you're terrified that you'll run into an unmasked person, that's probably overreacting.

HARRIS: It's understandable why parents would feel that way, she says. Though these risks are very low, they are not zero, and people struggle to conceptualize the difference between small risks - say, something that's one in a thousand versus one in a million."
« Last Edit: July 14, 2021, 11:52:50 AM by Shane »

StashingAway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #931 on: July 14, 2021, 12:15:06 PM »
This doesn't pass the smell test for me. Looking at the most recent Canadian data before the pandemic, we had 1352 pediatric (age < 16) hospitalized flu cases, which was a bit higher than the 5-year average of 888. Of these, there were 271 ICU admissions and 10 deaths. (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2018-2019/annual-report.html) For the COVID epidemic in the age < 19 group, we've had 1374 hospitalizations, 163 ICU admissions, and 14 deaths as of July 9. (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html) Considering that, over the same time frame, incidences of the flu have been negligible, this would seem to suggest that COVID is much more dangerous - even with all the measures taken, hospitalizations, deaths, and ICU admissions have been roughly the same as a flu season where there was no masking, distancing, etc.

The possibility that you haven't added to the equation is the transmissibility of the disease. That data doesn't rule out the possibility, for example, that 5x as many kids got covid than the average flu season, yet it is 1/5 as deadly.

Although I do concede that from a "smell test" standpoint, I wouldn't put any money on it being less deadly than the flu for kids.

Cranky

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #932 on: July 14, 2021, 12:18:04 PM »
I have friends who took their 11yo to Disney at the beginning of the month. He got a cold. They flew home. Parents got sick and both have tested positive. Both parents were fully vaccinated and both are sick enough to feel pretty regretful.

Weíre wearing masks in the stores, but we are going into stores, so thatís something.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #933 on: July 14, 2021, 12:27:16 PM »
I have friends who took their 11yo to Disney at the beginning of the month. He got a cold. They flew home. Parents got sick and both have tested positive. Both parents were fully vaccinated and both are sick enough to feel pretty regretful.

Weíre wearing masks in the stores, but we are going into stores, so thatís something.

Yeah, the shot does a really good job at preventing covid from killing you.  It doesn't stop you from getting sick or passing it on to others.  I feel like the messaging around this has been poor.

HMman

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #934 on: July 14, 2021, 01:45:55 PM »
This doesn't pass the smell test for me. Looking at the most recent Canadian data before the pandemic, we had 1352 pediatric (age < 16) hospitalized flu cases, which was a bit higher than the 5-year average of 888. Of these, there were 271 ICU admissions and 10 deaths. (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2018-2019/annual-report.html) For the COVID epidemic in the age < 19 group, we've had 1374 hospitalizations, 163 ICU admissions, and 14 deaths as of July 9. (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html) Considering that, over the same time frame, incidences of the flu have been negligible, this would seem to suggest that COVID is much more dangerous - even with all the measures taken, hospitalizations, deaths, and ICU admissions have been roughly the same as a flu season where there was no masking, distancing, etc.

The possibility that you haven't added to the equation is the transmissibility of the disease. That data doesn't rule out the possibility, for example, that 5x as many kids got covid than the average flu season, yet it is 1/5 as deadly.

Although I do concede that from a "smell test" standpoint, I wouldn't put any money on it being less deadly than the flu for kids.

That's a very good point, and exactly what I meant by the last sentence! The measures taken to curb COVID have crushed flu cases to practically nothing (in Canada/US, at least; I don't know about others) - in the meantime, COVID has been about as deadly for the young age group as a typical flu season. We essentially ran both of them at the same time, and COVID came out way on top primarily because it's so much more transmissible. If you're much more likely to be exposed to COVID due to higher transmissibility, and the risk of the actual exposure is about the same as the flu (as in @Shane's NPR source), the overall risk of COVID >> overall risk of the flu.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #935 on: July 14, 2021, 02:05:18 PM »
This doesn't pass the smell test for me. Looking at the most recent Canadian data before the pandemic, we had 1352 pediatric (age < 16) hospitalized flu cases, which was a bit higher than the 5-year average of 888. Of these, there were 271 ICU admissions and 10 deaths. (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2018-2019/annual-report.html) For the COVID epidemic in the age < 19 group, we've had 1374 hospitalizations, 163 ICU admissions, and 14 deaths as of July 9. (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html) Considering that, over the same time frame, incidences of the flu have been negligible, this would seem to suggest that COVID is much more dangerous - even with all the measures taken, hospitalizations, deaths, and ICU admissions have been roughly the same as a flu season where there was no masking, distancing, etc.

The possibility that you haven't added to the equation is the transmissibility of the disease. That data doesn't rule out the possibility, for example, that 5x as many kids got covid than the average flu season, yet it is 1/5 as deadly.

Although I do concede that from a "smell test" standpoint, I wouldn't put any money on it being less deadly than the flu for kids.

That's a very good point, and exactly what I meant by the last sentence! The measures taken to curb COVID have crushed flu cases to practically nothing (in Canada/US, at least; I don't know about others) - in the meantime, COVID has been about as deadly for the young age group as a typical flu season. We essentially ran both of them at the same time, and COVID came out way on top primarily because it's so much more transmissible. If you're much more likely to be exposed to COVID due to higher transmissibility, and the risk of the actual exposure is about the same as the flu (as in @Shane's NPR source), the overall risk of COVID >> overall risk of the flu.

There's also the fact that 2020 wasn't remotely close to being a normal year for most kids.  My son spent about 1/4 (maybe 1/3rd) of last year doing in person classes, and rarely was playing with other children . . . I'd assume that many people limited the exposure their children would have in a similar manner.  This behaviour completely eliminated the flu season.  That covid was still posting numbers at or higher than average for a regular flu year despite the situation seems like pretty good evidence that the disease is much more dangerous that the flu.

jrhampt

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #936 on: July 14, 2021, 02:34:33 PM »
I've been fully vaccinated since early May and I live in the most highly vaccinated county in a highly vaccinated state (69% of total pop in CT w at least one dose and 62% fully vaccinated).  Our case numbers are very low and have not begun to rise yet.  We have had fewer than 100 people in hospital w covid statewide for several weeks now and test positive rates less than 1%.  I work from home, all my friends and family in state are vaccinated, and although I mostly still eat outdoors when I go to restaurants, I finally went back to the Y this week.  I've gained some weight over the pandemic even though I have continued to work out at home, and I think the risk at this point is low enough that I'm willing to take it at least over the summer as long as our numbers stay very low.  I've really missed the gym but I am aware that it is a higher risk activity and they are not requiring masks or proof of vaccination.  I'm not seeing very many masks when I do go to the grocery store etc., mostly on younger kids who can't be vaccinated yet.  Some restaurants continue a policy of staff wearing masks in order to protect them and also to make customers feel comfortable. 

My parents continue to be unvaccinated (south, evangelical) and high risk, so I will continue not to see them for the foreseeable future.

FrugalFan

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #937 on: July 14, 2021, 04:03:36 PM »
This doesn't pass the smell test for me. Looking at the most recent Canadian data before the pandemic, we had 1352 pediatric (age < 16) hospitalized flu cases, which was a bit higher than the 5-year average of 888. Of these, there were 271 ICU admissions and 10 deaths. (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2018-2019/annual-report.html) For the COVID epidemic in the age < 19 group, we've had 1374 hospitalizations, 163 ICU admissions, and 14 deaths as of July 9. (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html) Considering that, over the same time frame, incidences of the flu have been negligible, this would seem to suggest that COVID is much more dangerous - even with all the measures taken, hospitalizations, deaths, and ICU admissions have been roughly the same as a flu season where there was no masking, distancing, etc.

The possibility that you haven't added to the equation is the transmissibility of the disease. That data doesn't rule out the possibility, for example, that 5x as many kids got covid than the average flu season, yet it is 1/5 as deadly.

Although I do concede that from a "smell test" standpoint, I wouldn't put any money on it being less deadly than the flu for kids.

That's a very good point, and exactly what I meant by the last sentence! The measures taken to curb COVID have crushed flu cases to practically nothing (in Canada/US, at least; I don't know about others) - in the meantime, COVID has been about as deadly for the young age group as a typical flu season. We essentially ran both of them at the same time, and COVID came out way on top primarily because it's so much more transmissible. If you're much more likely to be exposed to COVID due to higher transmissibility, and the risk of the actual exposure is about the same as the flu (as in @Shane's NPR source), the overall risk of COVID >> overall risk of the flu.

Yes! It makes me crazy when people quote the flu thing. 1. The flu is not as easily transmissible. If there was a crazy high flu season where hundreds of people per town were getting very sick and hospitalized with the flu and dozens getting sick in schools, I would be reacting the same way as I have been with COVID to protect our family. My daughter had double-pneumonia from a bad flu (came early that year before we could get our yearly shot) and I have been completely out for a week due to the flu. Nothing to mess with either. 2. Most of the data available is from the original variant or Alpha. Delta seems to be about twice as deadly.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #938 on: July 15, 2021, 12:58:55 AM »
I have friends who took their 11yo to Disney at the beginning of the month. He got a cold. They flew home. Parents got sick and both have tested positive. Both parents were fully vaccinated and both are sick enough to feel pretty regretful.

Weíre wearing masks in the stores, but we are going into stores, so thatís something.

Yeah, the shot does a really good job at preventing covid from killing you.  It doesn't stop you from getting sick or passing it on to others.  I feel like the messaging around this has been poor.

+1  I think this point bears repeating.

Omy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #939 on: July 15, 2021, 05:20:22 AM »
I'm pushing 60 and don't know anybody who has died from the flu - or who has chronic health problems because of a past bout with the flu. In the past 16 months, I personally know 4 people who've died from covid 19 and 7 who are currently experiencing long covid symptoms.

This is much worse than the flu.

Shane

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #940 on: July 15, 2021, 05:28:36 AM »
For adults, yeah, but not necessarily for children in the 0-11 year old age range. Adults can all get vaccinated now, so they're at little risk. Little kids are the only ones who can't get vaccinated. Luckily, they're at very little risk from covid, because they're kids.

FLBiker

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #941 on: July 15, 2021, 05:57:36 AM »
I have friends who took their 11yo to Disney at the beginning of the month. He got a cold. They flew home. Parents got sick and both have tested positive. Both parents were fully vaccinated and both are sick enough to feel pretty regretful.

Weíre wearing masks in the stores, but we are going into stores, so thatís something.

Yeah, the shot does a really good job at preventing covid from killing you.  It doesn't stop you from getting sick or passing it on to others.  I feel like the messaging around this has been poor.

+1  I think this point bears repeating.

Agreed.  We're fully vaccinated, our daughter (6) isn't.  We live in Nova Scotia (which has handled COVID very well) and had been planning to have my (fully vaccinated) dad visit next month from Missouri (which is handling COVID very poorly).  He decided yesterday not to come, because he didn't want to risk being a vector for our daughter.  He's a doctor.  I hadn't done a lot of research (as we're not planning any trips) but I did some reading afterwards and this is definitely a risk I wasn't aware of.  And it also seems like, despite typically not having acute symptoms, some kids have long term consequences from COVID.  We're staying put until either she's vaccinated or other areas are under control.  Fortunately, we're comfortable going out and about in Nova Scotia, which helps.  Folks here still where masks indoors, etc., despite the fact that we are currently having just like a case or two a day.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 10:52:25 AM by FLBiker »

StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #942 on: July 15, 2021, 09:01:03 AM »
Back in January, when vaccines started becoming available, we took a chance and booked a large-ish vacation (our first in several years). We figured waiting until the end of the summer would give ample time to for most people to get their vaccines.

Now we are afraid that we've booked the trip for too late and I'm starting to wonder if we should cancel due to rapid Delta spread. We are both vaccinated, but our kids are too young.

Vaccination rates are pretty high in our county (and covid rates extremely low averaging less than 1 infection a day for the last several weeks) and rates are even better at our vacation destination - but I'm wondering if I should be worried about the air travel in between?

I know masks are required at airports and on planes - but what do you do if you have a belligerent mask refuser on a multi-hour flight?

Grrrr- I wish people would just get vaccinated.

elaine amj

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #943 on: July 15, 2021, 09:11:48 AM »
I'm really trying to sift through everything to figure out and assess the risks personally to us now that we are all fully vaccinated. The 3 of us in my household are all higher risk, which has made us more cautious.

From what I can tell, the vaccines offer very good protection. Lots of promising data showing it does reduce risk of infection and transmission. Of course, there is still a risk so it is true, even fully vaxxed need to guard against transmitting to the unvaxxed.

Snippets from latest reports from Public Health England (this is Alpha variant so Delta numbers are likely a little worse).



https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000512/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_27.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjAp9Skq-XxAhWtdd8KHfmLBiwQFjAKegQIHBAC&usg=AOvVaw3IyaP_uyAtSUK9uaFH08T3&cshid=1626361978430

For us, I have to balance the risks against keeping us locked up forever. My family is fed up not getting to go grocery shopping lol. And we all want to see ppl outside our household after 6 months of pretty strict isolation. Everything is a risk. Right now we are cautiously interacting with people again.

Outdoor interactions are way less risky so that's what I am focusing on first.

I continue following studies closely to see what other things we can do safely. I am dreaming of crowds and big parties again. But not yet. In a wait and see mode for now.

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« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 09:15:49 AM by elaine amj »

Mr. Green

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #944 on: July 15, 2021, 12:14:42 PM »
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/563052-8-vaccinated-health-care-workers-get-covid-19-at-pool-party-in-las-vegas

An interesting article. 11 people working at the same medical center all got COVID at a pool party. 8 of them were fully vaccinated. 10 of the 11 were confirmed to have been infected with the Delta variant. The cluster was so unusual that medical professionals reexamined the data for the batch of vaccine those 8 employees received to make sure it wasn't mishandled, since breakthroughs are supposed to be much rarer than that. 8 fully vaccinated people being infected at one party is startling. Odds are something weird happened there. However I'm starting to see more examples of fully vaccinated people contracting the Delta variant creeping into the news. It could just be fearmongering or clickbait but it's giving me pause about spending extended time indoors without a mask, even fully vaccinated. Especially now that masks have disappeared. Virtually no one is masking anymore in any of the places we've been.

It will be interesting to see what more data shows in this regard, as Delta trends toward the exclusive strain in the us.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 12:16:31 PM by Mr. Green »

c-kat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #945 on: July 15, 2021, 12:35:26 PM »
@wenchsenior, I'm curious if your step FIL changed his anti-mask opinion at any time during his illness or expressed any regret.  I've heard several stories of people on their deathbed still refusing to believe they have Covid.  I guess the saying is true, that there is none so blind as he who will not see.  (Sorry for your loss, regardless.)

I'm not familiar with the current rates in Texas, but here in Canada, where rates are pretty low and vaccination rates pretty high, several provinces are dropping all restrictions, which I think is premature, given the uncertainty with the variants.  I suspect it will be a more relaxed summer, but then some restrictions will be re-implemented in fall once rates start to rise again.  It seems that we have enough anti-vaxxers and people that just couldn't be bothered to not achieve herd immunity, which is now set at 85-90% due to the variants.  My only hope is that once people see the risk that they are taking, as lately the only hospitalizations and death in my province have been with the unvaccinated, that will change.

Dropping all restrictions? I haven't heard that, but I'm in Ontario and we still can't even go into restaurants yet.

Wait three days and we'll be pretty darned close.
- Indoor gatherings up to 25 people (exception for religious services and ceremonies like weddings/funerals which have no maximums)
- Outdoor social gatherings and events of up to 100 people
Larger religious services and other ceremonies like weddings and funerals can happen indoors with physical distancing measures in place.
- Indoor dining with no limits on the numbers of people
- Nightclubs opening to 25% capacity
- Indoor sporting events opening to 50% capacity (75% capacity if they're outdoors)
- Fully open retail
etc.

But still requiring social distancing and masks, right?

I think so?  Federally they've said that there's no reason to wear masks if you're fully vaccinated, but the Ontario rules appear to require that business owners enforce mask wearing in all cases.  Of course, there's no enforcement of that rule by most businesses . . . so I expect that it will become more and more spotty.

Hmm, it will be interesting to see what happens here. So far everyone is still very masked everywhere, so it will be interesting to see how it looks over the next month.

I'm in Ontario and finding less and less people are wearing masks. I find it concerning because you can still get and transmit the virus even if fully vaccinated, and kids under 12 are not able to get the vaccine yet.  I have a 4 year old starting kindergarden in september and am worried about it.

elaine amj

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #946 on: July 15, 2021, 03:37:12 PM »
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/563052-8-vaccinated-health-care-workers-get-covid-19-at-pool-party-in-las-vegas

An interesting article. 11 people working at the same medical center all got COVID at a pool party. 8 of them were fully vaccinated. 10 of the 11 were confirmed to have been infected with the Delta variant. The cluster was so unusual that medical professionals reexamined the data for the batch of vaccine those 8 employees received to make sure it wasn't mishandled, since breakthroughs are supposed to be much rarer than that. 8 fully vaccinated people being infected at one party is startling. Odds are something weird happened there. However I'm starting to see more examples of fully vaccinated people contracting the Delta variant creeping into the news. It could just be fearmongering or clickbait but it's giving me pause about spending extended time indoors without a mask, even fully vaccinated. Especially now that masks have disappeared. Virtually no one is masking anymore in any of the places we've been.

It will be interesting to see what more data shows in this regard, as Delta trends toward the exclusive strain in the us.
Rather alarming article. 

I am starting to wonder about superspreaders. It seems every once in a while u hear of someone spreading covid to a large number of others while Joe down the street only managed to infect a few ppl.

What is it about these superspreaders that makes them more contagious? Are they more huggy? Are they producing more snot? Do they spit when they talk?

Maybe it is one of these superspreaders that caused so many breakthrough infections.

It's certainly concerning when you hear of breakthrough infections. So I keep comforting myself with statistics and follow various mathematicians who explain risk and the stats in ways more easy for me to understand. I often find myself confused when trying to understand if we're talking about the risk of 1 in a million vs 1 in a thousand.

Don't know if I am explaining myself well. Sometimes I look at numbers and the risk looks really high. Then I read the explanation by a mathematician who puts it into context and then I learn the risk is far lower than what I gathered reading the raw numbers.

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Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #947 on: July 15, 2021, 03:53:47 PM »

I'm in Ontario and finding less and less people are wearing masks. I find it concerning because you can still get and transmit the virus even if fully vaccinated, and kids under 12 are not able to get the vaccine yet.  I have a 4 year old starting kindergarden in september and am worried about it.

I had a kid in Kindergarten last last year during COVID, and I helped out at her school when it reopened. Iím in China, so there were very strict rules about social distancing in the classroom and mask-wearing. Even with very vigilant teachers and frequent checks by the CDC, itís hard getting four and five year olds to keep their masks on in class and to keep their hands away from their face, and to prevent them from getting too close to each other.

We canít prevent other people from doing what they want, but we can make sure we do what we can to keep ourselves safe and not be part of the problem.

For us, that meant that every morning, DD got a reminder to keep her mask on and to use hand sanitizer before and after every activity. We practiced sticking our arms out to our side to practice social distancing (your hands should not touch anyone elseís). We talked to her teacher about keeping her 1 meter away from others (she gets to sit on a chair at the back of the carpet and not in the middle of the carpet with everyone else), etc.

We currently have zero cases here, but even with no active COVID, we are still told to stay vigilant ó masks, avoid crowded places, etc. Social distancing and not being in crowded places has kind of fallen to the wayside, but masks remain common.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #948 on: July 16, 2021, 08:37:25 AM »
In the meantime, here in Arizona we now have a law that bans public schools and universities from enforcing mask mandates and Covid-19 testing for unvaccinated students.
Two school districts have a policy to quarantine un-vaxed students who are exposed to Covid-19.  When the governor's office found out they demanded the districts rescind that policy because it is "discrimination" to apply quarantine policies differently for vaccinated and un-vaccinated students. 

So, yeah.  Next wave is definitely coming because here at least we seem to be actively encouraging it.  SMH

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #949 on: July 16, 2021, 09:58:10 AM »
In the meantime, here in Arizona we now have a law that bans public schools and universities from enforcing mask mandates and Covid-19 testing for unvaccinated students.
Two school districts have a policy to quarantine un-vaxed students who are exposed to Covid-19.  When the governor's office found out they demanded the districts rescind that policy because it is "discrimination" to apply quarantine policies differently for vaccinated and un-vaccinated students. 

So, yeah.  Next wave is definitely coming because here at least we seem to be actively encouraging it.  SMH

Weird.  Most of the universities around here are requiring proof of vaccination to attend classes.  Most of our universities are private though.  Are your universities government run?  If not, how does the government have the power to interfere in private business choices like that?