Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120971 times)

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #850 on: April 01, 2020, 10:59:56 PM »
Our hoarding roommate is eating spam and canned soup, but still needs to shop more often than we do for fresh veg and meats.

Also, the Costco bean salad may have been cheaper than making my own, but it would best be served as a dessert. I have tried rinsing it, so hopefully it will be better tomorrow.

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #851 on: April 01, 2020, 11:21:59 PM »
For those making Costco runs, do not go between 12 noon-2pm. That is the peak time.

Grocery stores/Costco have special hours set aside for those older than 60, a high-risk category.

Please wear your mask outside your house!
Don't wait until noon to go to Costco or they will be picked over. If you're not a senior, go as close to the 10:00 am opening (new hours) as you can.

spartana

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #852 on: April 02, 2020, 11:18:02 AM »
For those making Costco runs, do not go between 12 noon-2pm. That is the peak time.

Grocery stores/Costco have special hours set aside for those older than 60, a high-risk category.

Please wear your mask outside your house!
Don't wait until noon to go to Costco or they will be picked over. If you're not a senior, go as close to the 10:00 am opening (new hours) as you can.
Unless you are looking for TP I've found that my.local Costco is nearly empty after 11 am. No lines in or at the check out, few people, tons of parking and lots of stuff (except TP). To be honest it is the lightest shopping/parking experience I've ever seen at costco. It seems most come early, line up in the big line, blitz the store, and are gone by 11 am and don't come back until the next morning.

StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #853 on: April 03, 2020, 09:37:16 AM »
Really glad I stocked up on food in early March. Our grocery pick-up is now scheduling 10 days out (up from 5 days last week). I have enough ingredients to span the gap.

Am also trying really hard to not purchase more than I need - but when the scheduling is getting further out it is hard to know how much is enough.

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #854 on: April 03, 2020, 12:44:28 PM »
Really glad I stocked up on food in early March. Our grocery pick-up is now scheduling 10 days out (up from 5 days last week). I have enough ingredients to span the gap.

Am also trying really hard to not purchase more than I need - but when the scheduling is getting further out it is hard to know how much is enough.

We are trying to space out our trips by at least 14 days, so yeah it looks like a lot of food. And a lot of eggs. Please let there be eggs when I go next week!

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #855 on: April 03, 2020, 02:01:41 PM »
I tried two different deliveries methods on amazon - amazon fresh and whole food.

put what they had i wanted into cart, but wasn't able to check out - no delivery dates/times available. No other options for scheduling. I'm fine if it will be in 2 weeks if that is all you got, but .... not letting the order through.


Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #856 on: April 03, 2020, 04:51:41 PM »
I tried two different deliveries methods on amazon - amazon fresh and whole food.

put what they had i wanted into cart, but wasn't able to check out - no delivery dates/times available. No other options for scheduling. I'm fine if it will be in 2 weeks if that is all you got, but .... not letting the order through.

Thatís what happened to us in China as well with the delivery apps at the end of January. I figured out when the appís system opened in the morning and was one of the first people to place an order, often snagging one of the last delivery time slots and I took whatever slot was available.

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #857 on: April 03, 2020, 06:28:00 PM »
I tried two different deliveries methods on amazon - amazon fresh and whole food.

put what they had i wanted into cart, but wasn't able to check out - no delivery dates/times available. No other options for scheduling. I'm fine if it will be in 2 weeks if that is all you got, but .... not letting the order through.

It sounds like Fresh varies from location to location but mine only every has three days--today, tomorrow, and the next day.  New times added sporadically throughout the day.  (They used to put all of them up at midnight, I think, but that's changed since things got crazy.)  So, just keeping checking back.  And interestingly, the new times they release seem random.  They are not just adding more times at the end.  I randomly caught one for the next day, when it had been showing both that day and the following day as unavailable for most of the day.  I don't know if they are doing this to try to give more people access, or if they add times as people sign up to work shifts perhaps? 

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #858 on: April 03, 2020, 08:33:12 PM »
I tried two different deliveries methods on amazon - amazon fresh and whole food.

put what they had i wanted into cart, but wasn't able to check out - no delivery dates/times available. No other options for scheduling. I'm fine if it will be in 2 weeks if that is all you got, but .... not letting the order through.

It sounds like Fresh varies from location to location but mine only every has three days--today, tomorrow, and the next day.  New times added sporadically throughout the day.  (They used to put all of them up at midnight, I think, but that's changed since things got crazy.)  So, just keeping checking back.  And interestingly, the new times they release seem random.  They are not just adding more times at the end.  I randomly caught one for the next day, when it had been showing both that day and the following day as unavailable for most of the day.  I don't know if they are doing this to try to give more people access, or if they add times as people sign up to work shifts perhaps?

I kept refreshing the page and then finally got lucky! Will get the delivery this weekend from fresh.

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #859 on: April 04, 2020, 03:52:52 AM »
Here's an odd thing that happened this week. MIL is in a nearby Board  & Care. We are required to provide certain things, including Depends. Our Costco warehouse has been out, so DH ordered them on their website, using his mom's credit card, which is not a Costco branded Visa card, but still a Visa, which means it should have worked. The order was placed, but moments later, DH got an email cancelling it. He placed a new order using our own Costco Citibank Visa; the order went through and stuck. We checked, and her card is working fine, and DH is an authorized user on it, so it wasn't that. Our best guess is that they are supporting the purchases of people using the Costco Visa?? Strange.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #860 on: April 04, 2020, 09:01:33 AM »
Here's an odd thing that happened this week. MIL is in a nearby Board  & Care. We are required to provide certain things, including Depends. Our Costco warehouse has been out, so DH ordered them on their website, using his mom's credit card, which is not a Costco branded Visa card, but still a Visa, which means it should have worked. The order was placed, but moments later, DH got an email cancelling it. He placed a new order using our own Costco Citibank Visa; the order went through and stuck. We checked, and her card is working fine, and DH is an authorized user on it, so it wasn't that. Our best guess is that they are supporting the purchases of people using the Costco Visa?? Strange.

hmm - that is idk somewhere between odd and concerning. Being a member should be thing.

Had he used her card there previously, and for online orders? Maybe the name needs to match or something?

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #861 on: April 04, 2020, 07:54:12 PM »
Here's an odd thing that happened this week. MIL is in a nearby Board  & Care. We are required to provide certain things, including Depends. Our Costco warehouse has been out, so DH ordered them on their website, using his mom's credit card, which is not a Costco branded Visa card, but still a Visa, which means it should have worked. The order was placed, but moments later, DH got an email cancelling it. He placed a new order using our own Costco Citibank Visa; the order went through and stuck. We checked, and her card is working fine, and DH is an authorized user on it, so it wasn't that. Our best guess is that they are supporting the purchases of people using the Costco Visa?? Strange.

hmm - that is idk somewhere between odd and concerning. Being a member should be thing.

Had he used her card there previously, and for online orders? Maybe the name needs to match or something?
Being a member is a thing, but I think anyone can use a non-Costco Visa there. We have used her card in the store, but this is the first time we've ordered for her online. The last names are the same, but you could be onto something there.

shawn77777

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #862 on: April 06, 2020, 02:40:28 PM »
Just read the whole thread although I have been prepping and watching this since Jan and got alot of the supplies earlier.  I received a email from a good friend back then that I trusted and it was from Korea or Japan and was saying people that consumed raw apples, garlic and onion helped prevent this not sure if true but my kid and I have been eating them ever since,
http://www.beautyofplanet.com/this-is-the-most-powerful-natural-antibiotic-ever-kills-any-infections-in-the-body/
I have been using a similar recipe to this as well since 2003 I think and haven't been sick since I started a couple of shots a day and I'm good.
I have been doing the delivery grocery shopping from shipt and Amazon Whole Foods.  If i try to post orders during the day they are generally all booked up so i refresh right after midnight and it always works for me.  Still not much toilet paper around but I did read a story from Hong Kong what actually caused the TP shortage and it was China cutting them off why they were quarantined so Hong Kong peeps went crazy and bought everything and I guess the US thought they should do the same.  Recently read all the mills in the country are producing at 25% more than normal and running 24 hours a day even before everything happened so it just gonna take time to restock.  I believe I read that customers are still buying at like 300% more than normal.
The only stuff I'm buying now is fresh produce and things that make grain dishes taste better like broth, pastes, seasonings, chipotle peppers, rotel and whatnot.  I would like to get up to 4-5 months worth considering the govt has been wrong about pretty much everything so far and who knows when the vaccinations will be ready.

Dicey

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #863 on: April 09, 2020, 12:00:25 PM »
Here's an odd thing that happened this week. MIL is in a nearby Board  & Care. We are required to provide certain things, including Depends. Our Costco warehouse has been out, so DH ordered them on their website, using his mom's credit card, which is not a Costco branded Visa card, but still a Visa, which means it should have worked. The order was placed, but moments later, DH got an email cancelling it. He placed a new order using our own Costco Citibank Visa; the order went through and stuck. We checked, and her card is working fine, and DH is an authorized user on it, so it wasn't that. Our best guess is that they are supporting the purchases of people using the Costco Visa?? Strange.

hmm - that is idk somewhere between odd and concerning. Being a member should be thing.

Had he used her card there previously, and for online orders? Maybe the name needs to match or something?
Being a member is a thing, but I think anyone can use a non-Costco Visa there. We have used her card in the store, but this is the first time we've ordered for her online. The last names are the same, but you could be onto something there.
Edit to add more facts, which only deepen the mystery: DH's card on his Mom's account actually has his name on it, so why they cancelled the order remains a mystery to be solved another day.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #864 on: April 11, 2020, 03:41:54 PM »
Hi all, OP here.

We are all still well in my home, despite one son living with me who works stocking the grocery store shelves at night. The workers there are now required to wear masks at work (county mandate) and Iíve sent some of the homemade fabric masks Iíve been sewing to his coworkers. My son is being very careful with hand washing etc. since my boyfriend has stage 4 lung cancer.

All my employees are very happy to have the masks I made for them two months ago. We are no longer seeing patients in our office (except for maybe 1 a week and not for acute illness) but are conducting telemedicine visits. As you might expect, income has dropped considerably and I am hoping to get the SBA forgivable loan to keep my employees paid. We still go to the office (plenty of work still refilling prescriptions, phone messages etc in addition to the televisits) but we all wear masks and try to keep 6 feet or more away from coworkers, frequent hand washing etc.

I havenít had to break into my stock of dried beans and rice yet, and son has been able to bring things like milk and produce from work. I even have a box of Sees chocolates that I bought before they closed and saved for Easter candy.

My last shopping trip was to Costco a couple of weeks ago, and since we are projected to peak here soon, Iím trying to avoid going back for a while. Luckily a friend/patient who I treated for probable CoVID a couple of weeks ago thanked me with an order from Omaha steaks, so my freezer is full of steaks,  burgers, shrimp and chicken right now. If we all got sick today, we could eat well for time enough to recover.

Iíve been less stressed than most because of my preparedness. Iím not worried about whether I can find this or that. I put half my IRA into cash at the peak of the market and although I will have to withdraw some cash to get me through the next few months, Iíve been reinvesting the rest as the market hit lows, so in the long run I should probably make up the money I had to take out and end up as good, or better, than I would have been if this hadnít happened.

Iíve never been a prepper or anything resembling it, but I must say, Iím impressed with how much peace of mind comes in a crisis like this when youíre not worried about finances, food, or toilet paper. I know most are under extreme stress and Iím going to do everything I can to keep my employees paid and safe.

I noticed someone a while back posting about my original fatality estimates being off. I think I posted already, but to be clear - the crude case fatality rate of 3-4% does NOT include mild and asymptomatic cases. The best current estimates of overall fatality among ALL people who contract the virus is 0.7% - not far from the estimates I originally made. (For some unknown reason, the case fatality rate has been quite higher in Italy and Spain - maybe less testing or more elderly, but there might also be a more aggressive strain there. I imagine we wonít have the answer for a while).

I hope you are all safe and well. Itís a nasty bug and even cases that donít have to be hospitalized can be pretty awful.


meghan88

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #865 on: April 12, 2020, 04:48:39 PM »
Glad to hear that you are well.  I recall reading the early debates on this thread and thinking it could go either way ... everything seemed OK until mid-March, when it suddenly skewed to "not OK" very quickly.  Kudos for being less stressed than most, especially while caring for a stage 4 cancer patient.  Very impressive that you can keep it together in the face of it.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 04:50:37 PM by meghan88 »

hops

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #866 on: April 21, 2020, 12:33:15 PM »
The case for having a household pulse oximeter as part of C19 preparedness, by a leading airway expert.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

We got ours in late February for around $20. Not sure if price gouging is currently a problem.

Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #867 on: April 21, 2020, 12:55:03 PM »
The case for having a household pulse oximeter as part of C19 preparedness, by a leading airway expert.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

We got ours in late February for around $20. Not sure if price gouging is currently a problem.

Incidentally, I have a few of these at home.

hops

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #868 on: April 21, 2020, 01:00:51 PM »
The case for having a household pulse oximeter as part of C19 preparedness, by a leading airway expert.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

We got ours in late February for around $20. Not sure if price gouging is currently a problem.

Incidentally, I have a few of these at home.

We should've gotten extras back then to distribute to our most stubborn (and least likely to seek help) relatives. I know what my MIL will be getting for Mother's Day.

Imma

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #869 on: April 21, 2020, 01:29:03 PM »
I've got one too, I think that's probably even more important than a thermometer. Most of the time people feel they've got a fever but I've witnessed firsthand how Covid-19 pneumonia can remain symptomless for a while. Also, in case of emergency, low saturation will get you an ambulance quickly, unlike general fatigue or shortness of breath.

LightTripper

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #870 on: April 23, 2020, 08:16:51 AM »
I didn't think of it until March, by which point getting one quickly in the UK came at a cost of a few hundred quid!  I instead went for a £25 job but at the cost of it coming by slow boat from China... Had lots of positive reviews from Italy (I'm hoping these things are simple enough that quality isn't too much of an issue... If it is, then lots of people running round with inaccurate versions could cause a bit of a nightmare in itself).  Due to arrive in a couple of weeks if all goes well.  Seems like a useful thing to have at home.

slappy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #871 on: April 23, 2020, 09:03:56 AM »
The case for having a household pulse oximeter as part of C19 preparedness, by a leading airway expert.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

We got ours in late February for around $20. Not sure if price gouging is currently a problem.

I bought one pretty recently for $25 ish. Also sent one to my mom. When my kids were babies, I had the monitor that attaches to the foot and tells you how their breathing is. (the Owlette monitor) As my youngest grew out of it, I often wished I had something similar when they were sick, especially two of my kids have been hospitalized with RSV every year. (except this year, thank goodness!) I will probably get use of it regardless of what happens with C19 and I'm very happy to have it.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #872 on: April 23, 2020, 07:43:31 PM »
I didn't think of it until March, by which point getting one quickly in the UK came at a cost of a few hundred quid!  I instead went for a £25 job but at the cost of it coming by slow boat from China... Had lots of positive reviews from Italy (I'm hoping these things are simple enough that quality isn't too much of an issue... If it is, then lots of people running round with inaccurate versions could cause a bit of a nightmare in itself).  Due to arrive in a couple of weeks if all goes well.  Seems like a useful thing to have at home.

Unfortunately quality does matter. Definitely get one that shows the waveform in some fashion (either an animated bar graph or an animated line graph). Pulse ox machines are somewhat finicky and often give falsely low reading when you first put them on. Once the waveform stabilizes to your pulse, then you can be more confident in the reading. If you have one without a waveform, it should at least tell you your pulse rate, which you can independently verify with a clock. Most will not work if you are wearing nail polish.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #873 on: April 23, 2020, 08:04:46 PM »
Pulse oximeters are very handy (we have monitored by boyfriendís oxygen levels throughout his
lung cancer treatment with one). Important thing to know - if your fingers are cold it will read low. So warm those fingers up first to normal temp before testing.

Vitamin D may play a role in whether someone has a severe case or a mild case according to a prepublication report, so take your vitamin D and get some sunshine if you can.

No, you cannot disinfect a person internally with UV light or bleach so please listen to the doctors and scientists and not the uninformed ramblings of a poorly educated old man.

The New York surveillance study results reported today almost perfectly support my initial estimates of overall fatality per infection. Not bad for a back of the envelope guesstimate . It remains to be seen if the West Coast actually has a less aggressive strain.

LightTripper

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #874 on: April 24, 2020, 03:20:46 AM »
Unfortunately quality does matter. Definitely get one that shows the waveform in some fashion (either an animated bar graph or an animated line graph). Pulse ox machines are somewhat finicky and often give falsely low reading when you first put them on. Once the waveform stabilizes to your pulse, then you can be more confident in the reading. If you have one without a waveform, it should at least tell you your pulse rate, which you can independently verify with a clock. Most will not work if you are wearing nail polish.

Thanks, that's useful info!  It may turn out not to be as much help as I'd hoped - but a small expense and if we're healthy when it arrives we'll get a chance to at least check it's not giving us false alarms when we're well I guess - though sounds it may be hard to have much confidence in the results if we get ill without having the chance to calibrate it!

DaMa

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #875 on: July 09, 2020, 09:03:25 AM »
I want to say thank you to @frugaldrummer .  Today I read that the latest models are predicting 200,000 deaths by November, which was the lower bound he shared and many here scoffed at.

On March 2nd, I started really researching what was happening, because I had a cruise scheduled on 3/23.  Frugaldrummer seemed to me the person with the best information.  I read the reports he linked as well as many others. I shared what I learned with my friends and family, and none have gotten sick, including 3 of my 4 children who are essential workers in Metro Detroit.

Thank you very much.

CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #876 on: July 09, 2020, 01:39:33 PM »
Yes, thank you @frugaldrummer

You were told you might have an anxiety disorder back in February but now I think the whole county has an anxiety disorder due to COVID uncertainties...

LWYRUP

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #877 on: July 09, 2020, 02:55:56 PM »
@frugaldrummer, you may have saved lives through your hard work on this forum.  I agreed with you but didn't have the science training so stayed quiet. 

Thanks very much for your contributions to the community.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #878 on: July 09, 2020, 04:11:54 PM »
I had already seen what had happened in China and how quickly things deteriorated so I believed frugaldrummer. BTW, they are posting in the ďAugust is when it all implodesĒ thread, and apparently there are studies showing Vitamin D may help prevent COVID. Iím glad we stocked up on our annual order of Vitamin D pills when we were in Canada in March.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #879 on: January 01, 2021, 08:20:16 AM »
Quote
Yes, the flu kills tens of thousands every year (get your flu shots!). This coronavirus will likely be on the order of 200,000 to 1 million deaths in the US. Many public health pronouncements are made to try to prevent panic. However, if major quarantines are put in place in the US it will induce panic, and quite a bit of disruption.

Just want to point out I posted this on Feb 24th and took endless shit for being a fearmonger. Current deaths over 344,000 and counting.

Denial is a powerful thing and this year has shown us that in spades.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2021, 09:06:56 AM by frugaldrummer »

Shane

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #880 on: January 01, 2021, 08:42:35 AM »
^^Just seeing this now. It's pretty amazing how prescient your predictions were, way back in February, frugaldrummer!

frugaldrummer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #881 on: January 01, 2021, 09:08:47 AM »
Yeah, not bad for back of the envelope calculations. A background in molecular biology and a lifetime in medicine helped.

CrustyBadger

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #882 on: January 01, 2021, 09:30:55 AM »
Wow, frugaldrummer, you got into a discussion/argument early on in the thread with someone about whether 100MM people in the US being infected was remotely possible.

I just looked up the most recent CDC estimates of COVID infection (not just how many have tested positive since many people did not/do not get tested)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html


Quote
These estimates suggest that during that period, there were approximately:

91 Million
Estimated Total Infections


77 Million
Estimated Symptomatic Illnesses

3.4 Million
Estimated Hospitalizations

Important to keep in mind that the 91 Million infections was WITH massive mitigation measures at least in some places and at some times -- mask mandates, indoor dining closed, schools closed or hybrid, social distancing, lots of telework etc.   If those things hadn't happened we'd have had at least double+ the infections.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #883 on: January 02, 2021, 05:23:23 AM »
Yeah, those initial posts bashing frugaldrummer did NOT age well. Itís almost comical to read in hindsight. The US is currently sitting at 341,000 COVID-related deaths. Iíd say pretty much all the predictions came true.

StarBright

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #884 on: January 02, 2021, 07:49:05 AM »
This thread has really stuck with me this year and I think about it probably more than any other thread I've participated in. It was the thread that inspired me to sew my own masks back in March, but also made me wonder if I was insane for doing so :) .

Adventine

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #885 on: January 02, 2021, 09:13:07 AM »
Yeah, not bad for back of the envelope calculations. A background in molecular biology and a lifetime in medicine helped.

Thank you for having raised awareness on the forum in February 2020, a time when many, including myself, did not think the situation would become so bad.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #886 on: January 02, 2021, 09:20:26 AM »
Yeah, those initial posts bashing frugaldrummer did NOT age well. Itís almost comical to read in hindsight. The US is currently sitting at 341,000 COVID-related deaths. Iíd say pretty much all the predictions came true.

Yes. It doesnít seem unrealistic at all that the US could hit 500k COVID deaths by the end of February. Frugaldrummerís estimate was 200k to 1 million.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #887 on: January 02, 2021, 10:29:44 AM »
Yeah, not bad for back of the envelope calculations. A background in molecular biology and a lifetime in medicine helped.

Thank you for having raised awareness on the forum in February 2020, a time when many, including myself, did not think the situation would become so bad.

Agreed.

Abe

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #888 on: January 02, 2021, 12:12:17 PM »
Yeah, not bad for back of the envelope calculations. A background in molecular biology and a lifetime in medicine helped.

Thanks again for raising the alarm and sorry you faced a lot of abuse and unfounded accusations about your mental health. It was not a proud time for the forum in general. Best of luck to you in the New Year!

fuzzy math

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #889 on: January 02, 2021, 01:26:54 PM »
I so don't want to be in this thread, but I can't help myself when people are talking past each other...

OP (Frugaldrummer) was talking about making fabric masks and believed that they could still be beneficial for personal use since OP believes the professional masks should be saved for healthcare workers.

Several people have mistakenly taken the OP's comments about washing those DIY masks in hot water the wrong way and thought OP meant they would be washing N95 masks.

No one is advocating washing professional or purchased masks.

I am doing nothing to prepare for the coronavirus. But I am due with a baby in just over 6 weeks, so I'll be stocking my freezer and pantry and home supplies over the next month to prepare for that.

We've discussed at length why one should not wear home-made fabric masks, and taken a dive into the scientific literature on the efficacy.
Homemade fabric masks cannot filter out virus particles, they create a warm, wet-enviornment to harbor microbes, and they aren't designed to be taken on/off without transferring anything on the mask to your nose and mouth.

They have limited use if you are already sick as they will limit airborne particles.  But they are worse than useless when worn by healthy individuals.  If you are then taking those homemade masks and wachine washing them you are making them even worse every washing.

This, in particular, aged well...
« Last Edit: January 02, 2021, 01:29:23 PM by fuzzy math »

Zamboni

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #890 on: January 02, 2021, 11:04:31 PM »
@frugaldrummer, I'm sorry you were right, but I'm really, really thankful that you warned us (as I wrote on this thread in late March.) You saved my family and me some real pain by giving us a heads up in time to get ready.

I even found myself parroting your advice to a student who was asking me what I thought the pros and cons were of scheduling his elective knee surgery for before or after spring break (told him if he didn't get the surgery scheduled for early March or sooner, then it might be cancelled indefinitely.) Like you, people often ask my advice, then ignore it, and rarely do they follow up to tell me how things turned out, so I don't even know if he got his knee fixed yet or not!

SotI

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #891 on: January 03, 2021, 04:04:53 AM »
I didn't participate in this thread but I read it at the time and was more inclined towards Frugaldrummer's view, mostly b/c I didn't believe that China was drastically shutting down areas without cause. I also have some negative experience with feline Corona viruses and infection/mutation risks. So, I chose to play it safe from early Feb onwards (still do), and Frugaldrummer's reasoning made me actually feel less irrational.

So, thanks from me, too. 😊

Omy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #892 on: January 03, 2021, 09:15:00 AM »
This thread startled me into action in February, so I'm very thankful for that. We had toilet paper, masks, cleaning supplies and a full pantry well before the shelves were emptied. I did feel a little silly at the time, but as the predictions in the thread came true I was so glad to be prepared.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #893 on: January 03, 2021, 02:51:31 PM »
Quote
Yes, the flu kills tens of thousands every year (get your flu shots!). This coronavirus will likely be on the order of 200,000 to 1 million deaths in the US. Many public health pronouncements are made to try to prevent panic. However, if major quarantines are put in place in the US it will induce panic, and quite a bit of disruption.

Just want to point out I posted this on Feb 24th and took endless shit for being a fearmonger. Current deaths over 344,000 and counting.

Denial is a powerful thing and this year has shown us that in spades.

So glad you are doing well as I know you work in health care.

Many of us benefitted from your wise words, and I for one am exceedingly thankful you started this thread.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #894 on: January 03, 2021, 03:01:39 PM »
Yeah, those initial posts bashing frugaldrummer did NOT age well. Itís almost comical to read in hindsight. The US is currently sitting at 341,000 COVID-related deaths. Iíd say pretty much all the predictions came true.

I didn't think they sat that well at the time. Of course we all hoped that those predictions wouldn't come to pass, but the way that discussion unfolded was not ok in my opinion.

It's one thing to say "I disagree and here my rationale for that/alternate info/my and or others predictions"

Frugaldrummer was chastised and criticized, interfering with some of us actually trying to talk about how to prepare just in case.   

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #895 on: January 03, 2021, 04:31:02 PM »
Thanks from me, too, @frugaldrummer . This thread was a wake-up call for me and, indirectly, my family. So far only the youngest, healthiest family member (college student living with 2 housemates) has gotten Covid and his case was extremely mild. We are all trying to remain vigilant and cautious until we can be vaccinated.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #896 on: May 25, 2021, 11:13:15 AM »
This thread was linked in another post, which I've since lost, so I'm going to reply in here. Just wanted to pile on with the admiration for raising the alarm bells so early on, @frugaldrummer. I didn't see this thread when it was first started, and have only had the chance to read through it now, and your predictions and recommendations are eerily accurate in hindsight. The accusations you got regarding your mental health and perceived anxiety, especially by a few forum luminaries, was... well, it was something. Hindsight is obviously 20/20, and I don't know how I would have read those posts at the time either, but those are some deeply uncomfortable posts to read now. Hope you've been doing well.

Also, kudos to @GuitarStv for posting the only unqualified mea culpa that I saw in this thread for his earlier comments downplaying the risks of the outbreak.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #897 on: May 27, 2021, 07:23:49 PM »
I have to say thank you, also. I could do the math about the pandemic early on, but this thread helped me realize I wasnít crazy for thinking the worst. We took things seriously, and we avoided getting sick for a long time. Despite precautions, we got sick, felt terrible, and. Have mostly recovered. (Some things are just not the same even five months later.)  Odds may be good for you, but if you draw a bad card, it doesnít matter what your odds were prior to the draw. We drew a bad card, but our precautions kept us from infecting anyone else.

Thank you, @frugaldrummer , for your early caution.

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #898 on: May 28, 2021, 12:50:10 PM »
I so don't want to be in this thread, but I can't help myself when people are talking past each other...

OP (Frugaldrummer) was talking about making fabric masks and believed that they could still be beneficial for personal use since OP believes the professional masks should be saved for healthcare workers.

Several people have mistakenly taken the OP's comments about washing those DIY masks in hot water the wrong way and thought OP meant they would be washing N95 masks.

No one is advocating washing professional or purchased masks.

I am doing nothing to prepare for the coronavirus. But I am due with a baby in just over 6 weeks, so I'll be stocking my freezer and pantry and home supplies over the next month to prepare for that.

We've discussed at length why one should not wear home-made fabric masks, and taken a dive into the scientific literature on the efficacy.
Homemade fabric masks cannot filter out virus particles, they create a warm, wet-enviornment to harbor microbes, and they aren't designed to be taken on/off without transferring anything on the mask to your nose and mouth.

They have limited use if you are already sick as they will limit airborne particles.  But they are worse than useless when worn by healthy individuals.  If you are then taking those homemade masks and wachine washing them you are making them even worse every washing.

This, in particular, aged well...

Person who was due with a baby on April 13, 2020 chiming back in! I was spurred into earlier action by @frugaldrummer's posts here. I made a couple really big grocery runs right after I posted the above just in case and had my freezer and pantry stocked up and toilet paper in the closet before my baby was born on April 18. I remember being at the store and things seeming normal still and I thought about this post and just threw in a few more cans of veggies and bags of rice.

Giving birth during the nationwide stay at home is not something I recommend!

Also, I did sew myself a mask in early March lol.

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #899 on: May 28, 2021, 02:15:36 PM »
Well we donít have the best grasp on the true fatality rate - a recent statistical estimate was 0.3-0.6 case fatality rate. If 20% of the US population were to be infected (Spanish Flu was 30%) the that would mean 200k to 400k deaths.

However a recent study on the first 200 patients admitted to one hospital in China (all admitted before Jan 12 so presumably before people were being turned away) showed 55 of 201 sent to the ICU, 3 of those died in transit or on arrival, another 32 died in the ICU for a fatality rate of 17.4%. Now obviously, these were cases serious enough to warrant admission. However, if this represented only 10% of those infected and the rest were mild or asymptomatic, the fatality rate would be 1.74%. Italy has 5 deaths already.

So the upper end of my estimate - 1 million US deaths - would hold true if 20% get infected and the fatality rate is actually 1.5%, or if 30% of the population gets infected and the fatality rate is 1 %. Hopefully it will be half that but itís not an unreasonable upper estimate given the little information we have.
Please stop making such wild predictions. It contributes to uninformed hysteria and misinformation.    This is not the influenza pandemic of 1917-1919, and our global health care system is not what it was 100 years ago.

No credible epidemiologist is suggesting that the US will have ~100MM cases from this virus.  Now that we know what this virus is and can monitor and test for it, its pretty clear that the lethality is on the lower end of the spectrum.  As with all outbreaks, as we learn about its effects the mortality rates tail off; that's what we are seeing here.

Transmission is also not a random act of fate.  There is a great deal that individuals can (and should!) do to minimize their risk, and those with very good health habits can push their transmission risk down to negligible numbers in all but the most infected and population-dense locations.

You can find a wealth of up-to-date information here:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

It really was just like the 1917 flu pandemic.

I don't know where we'd be right now if the vaccines hadn't come through so quickly. And still hundreds of americans dying every day. And millions refusing the vaccine. We might hit a million deaths yet.  :(

Sadly - over 400 people who were fully vaccinated have died of covid anyway.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

This isn't as over as we'd like to believe.