Coronavirus preparedness

[NextTime]

Glad we refill our meds in 90-day supplies as soon as possible, as Trump's causing a run on one that's essential for treatment of one of my conditions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-chloroquine-trump.html

Thankfully, my wife just got her 90 day supply on Thursday.

[spartana]

And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

wishing her the speediest of recoveries!!

Ditto! Hope she gets better fast and that you are doing OK too.

Here in Calif we are now on full lock down via state government orders but still people are out and about and congregating in large groups for sports and recreation. Even many people I know. The lack of concern for others and selfishness is kind of shocking. Now if they were out trying to find TP then that's a different thing ;-). I'm get to g low but OK for now. Moving in with BF today and I'm hoping he is stocked up. Otherwise I could use more food too. The store shelves are fairly bare but there is still some stuff left. Lots of runs on things (and being this is 'Murica guns and ammo too) but mostly TP and all paper products.

We went to a quiet, out of the way park for our walk, but drive past a more popular one. Tons of people playing games and using the outdoor gym :(

If we end up with stricter controls, this is why.

Saw the same at the beach. Lots of group sports and groups hanging out together. They even highlighted it on.the evening news. Too had as it is likely to lead to a ban on any kind of outdoor activity.

[Abe]

The outdoor shopping center was empty except for people working at the restaurants and people coming to get takeout orders. For you SoCal folks, we have not seen a surge of cases yet at the UC hospitals. Will update if/when it ticks up. Fingers crossed!

[Imma]

People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Good point, I don't know if this is universal or not. I know in our country we have open discussions on end of life treatment but in other countries this may be taboo.

My family member is not in ICU but they are late 80s and completely healthy and living independently until 2 weeks ago. Nevertheless we have discussed end of life care as a family for 15 years so we all know what their wishes are. The family member is still conscious and able to make decisions and so far they haven't changed their mind, so if it family would have to make a decision at some point we can be confident we act in their best interest.

This is also a topic that's discussed when someone enters a nursing home. Another relative decided she wanted to die in her own bed and not in hospital, so when she had a massive stroke the nursing home didn't call an ambulance but the family and the priest and she died without regaining consciousness in her own bed a few days later. She was very old, partially paralyzed and blind before her stroke. In other countries maybe people find it very strange to not to anything that's medically possible, but in our country people often prefer quality of life over quantity.

In the US, my impression is overall we want to live forever so we deny, deny, deny. And when we DO die, its more often in a very nasty way. Why the heck is a 85 year old person getting aggressive chemo/radiation for cancer? I do not know, but it happens.

The nursing home NOT calling the ambulance would be considered neglect/abuse here. Even if it would be kinder.

Even if the patient left a written medical directive stating that she didn't want to go to hospital? If the nursing home doctor had called an ambulance to take my family member to the ICU and she died there instead, against her wishes, they would have acted without her consent and in violation of her wishes and I would have definitely considered filing a complaint against that doctor because I think it's very dangerous if a doctor doesn't understand the concept of informed consent.

My family member with Corona is not going to make it and has chosen for palliative sedation and I'm very glad this means their suffering is over.

People of MMM: take this virus seriously because it's not the flu. Statistically it's unlikely you'll die if you're young and healthy, but I personally know young people who have it and a lot of them are very ill. A friend of mine is recovering now but that friend is young and extremely fit (very mustachian, does lots of DIY and long distance cycling) and it's still a challenge to walk to the corner of the street and back. It wasn't like any other flu and they lost a lot of weight too.

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

In Norway, we have 6 deaths, average age 89. Some of them lived in an elderly home amd weren't taken to a hospital. I guess, because their chances for survival were to be neglected. The elderly home decided not to take them there.

Good point, I don't know if this is universal or not. I know in our country we have open discussions on end of life treatment but in other countries this may be taboo.

My family member is not in ICU but they are late 80s and completely healthy and living independently until 2 weeks ago. Nevertheless we have discussed end of life care as a family for 15 years so we all know what their wishes are. The family member is still conscious and able to make decisions and so far they haven't changed their mind, so if it family would have to make a decision at some point we can be confident we act in their best interest.

This is also a topic that's discussed when someone enters a nursing home. Another relative decided she wanted to die in her own bed and not in hospital, so when she had a massive stroke the nursing home didn't call an ambulance but the family and the priest and she died without regaining consciousness in her own bed a few days later. She was very old, partially paralyzed and blind before her stroke. In other countries maybe people find it very strange to not to anything that's medically possible, but in our country people often prefer quality of life over quantity.

In the US, my impression is overall we want to live forever so we deny, deny, deny. And when we DO die, its more often in a very nasty way. Why the heck is a 85 year old person getting aggressive chemo/radiation for cancer? I do not know, but it happens.

The nursing home NOT calling the ambulance would be considered neglect/abuse here. Even if it would be kinder.

Even if the patient left a written medical directive stating that she didn't want to go to hospital? If the nursing home doctor had called an ambulance to take my family member to the ICU and she died there instead, against her wishes, they would have acted without her consent and in violation of her wishes and I would have definitely considered filing a complaint against that doctor because I think it's very dangerous if a doctor doesn't understand the concept of informed consent.

My family member with Corona is not going to make it and has chosen for palliative sedation and I'm very glad this means their suffering is over.

People of MMM: take this virus seriously because it's not the flu. Statistically it's unlikely you'll die if you're young and healthy, but I personally know young people who have it and a lot of them are very ill. A friend of mine is recovering now but that friend is young and extremely fit (very mustachian, does lots of DIY and long distance cycling) and it's still a challenge to walk to the corner of the street and back. It wasn't like any other flu and they lost a lot of weight too.

THIS

People have no idea. I had adult chicken pox and it was just awful. I've never been so sick. The main part was a fever that really knocked me sideways. I was in bed for days where I just couldn't do more than drink water. Recovery was a looong time. Chicken pox has a teeny tiny nothing death rate in adults. That has NOTHING to do with how sick it will make you. There are a lot of young adults in for a short sharp shock.

[Linea_Norway]

Norway, who doesn't test the majority of people with symptoms, has finally made a self reporting system for the whole population. I hope this gives more realistic numbers. I reported the headache I had a few weeks ago. DH reported his more serious symptoms.

[mistymoney]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

[KBecks]

Norway, who doesn't test the majority of people with symptoms, has finally made a self reporting system for the whole population. I hope this gives more realistic numbers. I reported the headache I had a few weeks ago. DH reported his more serious symptoms.

Is your identity protected with this system?

[NewPerspective]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.  I'm pretty amazed that only one person in this thread admitted they were wrong and are now taking the threat seriously.  Some of the loudest people saying she needed therapy, was fear-mongering, was irresponsible and had unreasonable anxiety  later joined in the conversation as if they had been as concerned from the start.  Mind boggling.

The internet is a weird place.

[mistymoney]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.  I'm pretty amazed that only one person in this thread admitted they were wrong and are now taking the threat seriously.  Some of the loudest people saying she needed therapy, was fear-mongering, was irresponsible and had unreasonable anxiety  later joined in the conversation as if they had been as concerned from the start.  Mind boggling.

The internet is a weird place.

Yeah - and I really don't want to hear that the minimization of risk was "appropriate at that time". People were just dead wrong on their interpretation and prediction. And inappropriately lashed out. Kind of Freudian really.

[SunnyDays]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.  I'm pretty amazed that only one person in this thread admitted they were wrong and are now taking the threat seriously.  Some of the loudest people saying she needed therapy, was fear-mongering, was irresponsible and had unreasonable anxiety  later joined in the conversation as if they had been as concerned from the start.  Mind boggling.

I was thinking exactly that this morning.

[NewPerspective]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.  I'm pretty amazed that only one person in this thread admitted they were wrong and are now taking the threat seriously.  Some of the loudest people saying she needed therapy, was fear-mongering, was irresponsible and had unreasonable anxiety  later joined in the conversation as if they had been as concerned from the start.  Mind boggling.

The internet is a weird place.

Yeah - and I really don't want to hear that the minimization of risk was "appropriate at that time". People were just dead wrong on their interpretation and prediction. And inappropriately lashed out. Kind of Freudian really.

There were a few people that said they weren't worried and weren't doing anything special to prepare. Honestly, I would have probably agreed at the time.   I think what really bothers me is the condescending attitude and the lack of acknowledgement later.  The whole conversation about face masks....... she was clearly saying cloth masks could be used to help slow the spread if masks are running short.  Well guess what, now seamstresses at fashion houses are sewing cloth masks for medical staff in NYC.  And the insistence that she needed therapy.  Jeez.

[American GenX]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.

Others of us chimed in that thought it was going to be very bad in this and other threads.  We had already been seeing what was happening in China at that point.  But frugaldrummer's predicted fatality rate is lower that what we are seeing so far, but it's too early to say for certain.  See attached:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2567490/#msg2567490

[NewPerspective]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.

Others of us chimed in that thought it was going to be very bad in this and other threads.  We had already been seeing what was happening in China at that point.  But frugaldrummer's predicted fatality rate was too low, which I pointed out very early in the thread.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2567490/#msg2567490

Agree, it was very noticeable that some people were much more up to date with the latest information than others.  I just read the whole thread for the first time yesterday so it was really striking.

I hope the measures the US is taking now will prevent us from becoming Italy. 
 @frugaldrummer I'd be curious to hear your latest thoughts.

[mistymoney]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.  I'm pretty amazed that only one person in this thread admitted they were wrong and are now taking the threat seriously.  Some of the loudest people saying she needed therapy, was fear-mongering, was irresponsible and had unreasonable anxiety  later joined in the conversation as if they had been as concerned from the start.  Mind boggling.

The internet is a weird place.

Yeah - and I really don't want to hear that the minimization of risk was "appropriate at that time". People were just dead wrong on their interpretation and prediction. And inappropriately lashed out. Kind of Freudian really.

There were a few people that said they weren't worried and weren't doing anything special to prepare. Honestly, I would have probably agreed at the time.   I think what really bothers me is the condescending attitude and the lack of acknowledgement later.  The whole conversation about face masks....... she was clearly saying cloth masks could be used to help slow the spread if masks are running short.  Well guess what, now seamstresses at fashion houses are sewing cloth masks for medical staff in NYC.  And the insistence that she needed therapy.  Jeez.

Seriously - it was like frugaldrummer was visiting us from the future with her prescience.

She mentioned being an MD and MS in molecular bio, and naysayers were still acting like she was recommending washing paper face masks in a washing machine.

[mistymoney]

I was just reviewing the first page of this thread and I really wish this thread had stayed on track from the beginning and we really could have discussed preparing for this rather than everyone jumping on frugaldrumer with their nay-saying.

And I really think some posters owe frugaldrumer an apology. Saying that starting conversations about preparing for worse-case was 'the problem'? Telling them to go manage their anxiety with coping mechanisms? Really?

I also feel owed an apology too! I'm not some simple child where the "adults" need to monitor the conversation so I don't hear anything that will give me nightmares.

I read this thread from beginning to end yesterday and I've been thinking about it ever since.  In fact, I just logged in to say exactly what you said.  Everything that frugaldrumer predicted happened.

Others of us chimed in that thought it was going to be very bad in this and other threads.  We had already been seeing what was happening in China at that point.  But frugaldrummer's predicted fatality rate was too low, which I pointed out very early in the thread.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/ask-a-mustachian/coronavirus-preparedness/msg2567490/#msg2567490

Agree, it was very noticeable that some people were much more up to date with the latest information than others.  I just read the whole thread for the first time yesterday so it was really striking.

I hope the measures the US is taking now will prevent us from becoming Italy. 
 @frugaldrummer I'd be curious to hear your latest thoughts.

Hope she is ok, and thank you @frugaldrummer for raising the alarm - as unwelcome as some found it!!

I know this is a really tough time for our medical professionals. Doctor and nurses are being call out of recent retirement - they are fast-tracking students to get them into the field.

[Zamboni]

I agree with the last few posts and I want to thank @frugaldrummer for starting this thread when she did.

Normally I operate Europe style: I have dry good staples at home, but I stop by the store every couple of days for fresh food. I travel a medium amount for work: ~4 airports in a month is normal for me. Because of the early pages of the thread, I decided maybe there was something to worry about and went ahead and stocked up on dog food and some frozen food and other things I needed in the kitchen. That was way before the local stores were stripped. I even bought my kids their birthday presents earlier than I would have . . .

Then, we all got sick and one person in the family got extremely sick right after the first couple of cases were reported in my state. We all ended up quarantined. As in we signed a form that we wouldn't leave the house with notifying authorities, and they gave me a visitor log. I stayed home for 14 days except to go to urgent care.

And guess what? Because of this thread:
We had enough to eat.
We could wipe our butts and had our medicines.
The dog had food.

Thank you, frugaldrummer.

We all seem to be okay now, got through our isolation with a family birthday party along the way, and I was able to run by my office this week to pick up some work from home items and I just went out shopping today. Wow, it's insanity at the stores . . . not planning to do that again for another month.

[hops]

I think what really bothers me is the condescending attitude and the lack of acknowledgement later.  The whole conversation about face masks....... she was clearly saying cloth masks could be used to help slow the spread if masks are running short.  Well guess what, now seamstresses at fashion houses are sewing cloth masks for medical staff in NYC.  And the insistence that she needed therapy.  Jeez.

It would not surprise me if, as a physician, frugaldrummer is already well-acquainted with condescending attitudes and lack of acknowledgement later. It's probably part of how they knew this would quickly spiral out of control. Kudos to the mods for ignoring previous calls for this thread to be closed.

[mistymoney]

I think what really bothers me is the condescending attitude and the lack of acknowledgement later.  The whole conversation about face masks....... she was clearly saying cloth masks could be used to help slow the spread if masks are running short.  Well guess what, now seamstresses at fashion houses are sewing cloth masks for medical staff in NYC.  And the insistence that she needed therapy.  Jeez.

It would not surprise me if, as a physician, frugaldrummer is already well-acquainted with condescending attitudes and lack of acknowledgement later. It's probably part of how they knew this would quickly spiral out of control. Kudos to the mods for ignoring previous calls for this thread to be closed.

wait - what??? Posters were lobbying for this thread to be closed???

Unbelievable!!

[NewPerspective]

I agree with the last few posts and I want to thank @frugaldrummer for starting this thread when she did.

Normally I operate Europe style: I have dry good staples at home, but I stop by the store every couple of days for fresh food. I travel a medium amount for work: ~4 airports in a month is normal for me. Because of the early pages of the thread, I decided maybe there was something to worry about and went ahead and stocked up on dog food and some frozen food and other things I needed in the kitchen. That was way before the local stores were stripped. I even bought my kids their birthday presents earlier than I would have . . .

Then, we all got sick and one person in the family got extremely sick right after the first couple of cases were reported in my state. We all ended up quarantined. As in we signed a form that we wouldn't leave the house with notifying authorities, and they gave me a visitor log. I stayed home for 14 days except to go to urgent care.

And guess what? Because of this thread:
We had enough to eat.
We could wipe our butts and had our medicines.
The dog had food.

Thank you, frugaldrummer.

We all seem to be okay now, got through our isolation with a family birthday party along the way, and I was able to run by my office this week to pick up some work from home items and I just went out shopping today. Wow, it's insanity at the stores . . . not planning to do that again for another month.

So glad you and your family are doing well now.  I hope frugaldrummer sees your post, I'm sure would be very happy to see her words helped you be prepared.

To the poster that said she is maybe used to dealing with the condescending attitudes as a doctor, maybe you're right.  As I was reading the thread yesterday I was pretty amazed that never she seemed to get defensive or upset.  She just kept sharing sources of information from which she was drawing her conclusions.

[hops]

I think what really bothers me is the condescending attitude and the lack of acknowledgement later.  The whole conversation about face masks....... she was clearly saying cloth masks could be used to help slow the spread if masks are running short.  Well guess what, now seamstresses at fashion houses are sewing cloth masks for medical staff in NYC.  And the insistence that she needed therapy.  Jeez.

It would not surprise me if, as a physician, frugaldrummer is already well-acquainted with condescending attitudes and lack of acknowledgement later. It's probably part of how they knew this would quickly spiral out of control. Kudos to the mods for ignoring previous calls for this thread to be closed.

wait - what??? Posters were lobbying for this thread to be closed???

Unbelievable!!

If I remember correctly it was just two rather vocal posters (not sure if the posts are still up or not) who broached that subject. Similar stuff went on in some Bogleheads threads. High emotions are to be expected in situations like this, but being open-minded, flexible, and well-prepared for all kinds of contingencies are also very Mustachian qualities.

[NewPerspective]

Seriously - it was like frugaldrummer was visiting us from the future with her prescience.

She mentioned being an MD and MS in molecular bio, and naysayers were still acting like she was recommending washing paper face masks in a washing machine.
[/quote]

Yep.  And the disbelief bordering on outrage when she said elective surgeries would be cancelled.

I actually just received a text from my dentist office to reschedule my appointment next week to the end of April.

[habanero]

I am glad i live in a country with sensible politicans who have faith in their experts and dont see Supporting the stock market as job number 1 and the true gauge of success. We still have a linear curve and have now tested more than 1% of the population.

Buckle up - the us is the next epicentre.

[Linea_Norway]

Norway, who doesn't test the majority of people with symptoms, has finally made a self reporting system for the whole population. I hope this gives more realistic numbers. I reported the headache I had a few weeks ago. DH reported his more serious symptoms.

Is your identity protected with this system?

Yes, it is in an existing personal website where we can also see our medicines. You need to login with two way login.

[Abe]

I’d like to re-emphasize a few points made here and in other threads based on updates I’ve received from the hospital system:

1) it is difficult to predict when or where the next upslope will be in cases. Right now it’s NY, North Italy, Madrid. That does not mean other areas are out of the woods yet. SoCal has had fewer cases than we expected but all hospitals are still in preparation mode for mass casualties. That will continue for the next month at least.

2) the “true” mortality rate (defined as number of deaths / number of infected) is not clear, but also not relevant at this point. The main question is ICU bed capacity. Once that is exceeded, the absolute numbers that die can increase substantially. NYC is approaching that in the next few days. North Italy has exceeded that threshold and are transferring patients to other areas for ICU beds. Expect that this will happen in the US and we will get COVID patients transfers to other northeast US hospitals. The infection rate will be low from them since they are already known to have the disease, but that will rapidly shut down any non-emergency hospital care in the area as they prepare for more incoming transfers.

3) A vaccine is some months off in the best scenario. Lifting of suppression measures  until an effective on is widely available will cause the virus to take off again to some extent and continue pressure on the healthcare system. It’ll hopefully be more manageable what is happening in the above three areas and something like what Germany and S Korea saw.

Current guidance is that this state of affairs will last for at least two months.

[SunnyDays]

I am glad i live in a country with sensible politicans who have faith in their experts and dont see Supporting the stock market as job number 1 and the true gauge of success. We still have a linear curve and have now tested more than 1% of the population.

Buckle up - the us is the next epicentre.

Same here, although I live in a different country.

I think the US is just getting started and it’s going to be really bad there, but hopefully I’m wrong.

[Luz]

It seems like a lot of this argument is missing the point of "flattening the curve." The primary reason to do it is to reduce the impact on the health care system. This is something every single person should care about, even if they're completely self-interested. If the system is overwhelmed, there will be no one to help you if you get sick, no supplies, no way to protect you from catching coronavirus on top of whatever else is going on.

Even the healthiest person can get in an accident, or have their appendix burst.

It's not about self-interest. It's about a smart response. And ultimately keeping in mind the effects of a global economic crisis on our ability to do anything at all. 

South Korea is one of the only countries who has so far successfully "flattened the curve" for the time being, and they have done so without lock downs. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/13/south-korea-sees-coronavirus-slowdown-without-a-lockdown-but-with-nearly-250000-tests/#1875516576b9

Lock downs will likely help "flatten the curve".... if there is proper testing (which The Atlantic writer, Katherine Wells points out "should be one of the first lines of defense in a pandemic") and quarantine of the sick as well (not to mention contact tracing). But I think it's wise to question what effect (on both containing the virus and people's ability to house and feed themselves) lockdowns will have without the other necessary elements. Gavin Yamey, Director of the Center for Policy Impact in Global Health writes,

"Right now, with so little testing, we are shooting in the dark when it comes to our control efforts. It’s the equivalent of a surgeon trying to do an operation with the lights off." https://time.com/5804899/u-s-coronavirus-needs-follow-s-korea/

Economists are now taking a similar stance as the health experts were earlier in the pandemic, in urging that there are things we can do to prevent damage. This was an interesting read: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/government-compensation-for-covid-19-losses-by-anatole-kaletsky-2020-03

[Sibley]

I just went back and reviewed my comments on this thread. My memory is that I objected mostly to the tone. From what I just reviewed, I both disbelieved and objected to the tone. Yes, frugaldrummer ended up being correct. I wish she was very, very wrong, because her being right means people are dying. I do apologize for doubting her. I still object to the way she said what she said.

And yes, initially I wasn't too concerned about the virus. But as events proceeded, I adjusted my views and my response. I'm not perfect, no one is. Now, I'm at home, yelling at my parents to stay inside. It isn't working.

[MaybeBabyMustache]

Glad we refill our meds in 90-day supplies as soon as possible, as Trump's causing a run on one that's essential for treatment of one of my conditions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-chloroquine-trump.html

I've been off of chloroquine for about a year, due to well managed lupus. However, I've been having a flare (stress, I'm sure) & my doctor has wanted me to come in for blood work, but not at the moment due to the shelter in place order. She has said it will be a real struggle to get chloroquine & get everything regulated again, due to the ongoing debates about its use with Coronavirus. I'm concerned

[MoseyingAlong]

No N95 masks are not available at the hardware store right now. In fact my local Home Depot has NO masks of any kind - that entire section  is empty.

Again, you don't want an N95 mask - you want a P95 mask.  And those must be changed every 3 hours.  Homemade masks are typically worse than worthless, as they can give a false sense of security while providing a surface for the virus to cling to.

Average people who aren't caring for infected individuals don't need a mask.  Just reduce direct physical contact with other people, wash your hands and face frequently and when in doubt eat cooked food.  It's a lot like avoiding the flu.  Transmission can be reduced!

@nereo  curious why you were so anti-N95 masks?
If you posted a correction later, I missed it. N95 masks are what we use in my hospital in the situation frugaldrummer was writing about. A brief search seemed to indicate P95 masks were for oily-residue situations which is not the typical healthcare use. So I'm wondering what your thinking is/was?
I hope this doesn't sound snarky; I'm honestly interested in your thought process. Thanks.

[mistymoney]

I'm wondering what has changed that there is a new post today about this? Because as far as I know, nothing has gotten substantially worse. There hasn't been some deadly mutation. There hasn't been some massive increase in infected or deaths above and beyond what can be expected based on what little prior data we have.

I get that it's scary. If your fears are overwhelming your ability to consider the risks rationally, it's time to stop following the news for a bit.

Common sense preparation. Wash your hands. Stay away from sick people.

I'm assuming the amped up concern has to do with the weekend count in Italy and that they haven't tracked down "patient zero" there yet. My husband has a conference in Italy in a couple weeks and just got an email that it may be cancelled.

Got it. So some people are panicking, which then spills out which then makes others panic.

Frugaldrummer - You are part of the problem right now. Stop it. I don't care if you're an MD, right now, you're not helping. DO NO HARM. If you have an anxiety diagnosis, you need to pull out your coping mechanisms and stop inflicting your anxiety on unsuspecting people. If you're just a worrier, you need to stop inflicting your worries on unsuspecting people. It's a virus. People will get sick. Some people will die. It's new, so no one has immunity which means if you come into contact, it's much more likely you'll get it. However, transmission can easily be mitigated by simple precautions that are effective against pretty much every respiratory illness. Wash your hands. Avoid sick people. If you get sick, cover your cough, sneeze into your elbow, and stay home.

I suggest you reread your posts and wonder what kind of tone you were giving off.

All frugaldrummer did was talk about numbers and projections and washing cloth masks in a very dispassionate manner.

You inputted a variety of severe emotional reactions as she was being cold and logical - you first suggest that she is somehow overwhelmed with anxiety and needs to step away from the news.

Then you suggest an anxiety diagnosis? You acknowledge she is a physician with your Hippocratic oath snippet - and then proceed to give her advice on hand washing?

Have you assessed any harm you may have caused by trying to persuade people this was nothing? Your insights based apparently on absolutely no knowledge of anything whatsoever.

[NewPerspective]

I just went back and reviewed my comments on this thread. My memory is that I objected mostly to the tone. From what I just reviewed, I both disbelieved and objected to the tone. Yes, frugaldrummer ended up being correct. I wish she was very, very wrong, because her being right means people are dying. I do apologize for doubting her. I still object to the way she said what she said.

And yes, initially I wasn't too concerned about the virus. But as events proceeded, I adjusted my views and my response. I'm not perfect, no one is. Now, I'm at home, yelling at my parents to stay inside. It isn't working.

It is interesting how people can read and understand the same things so very differently.  Maybe that is why we are where we are as a country (in general, not just the virus).

I read Frugaldrummer as sharing information and encouraging people to be prepared based on her professional experience.  I didn't see the tone that you saw.

I read the tone of your posts as being very condescending and rude.  As I mentioned before, I don't think I would have been overly concerned on Feb 24th either but I would have taken frugaldrummer's posts as informational.  The part that most bothered me is that you later joined in the conversation as if you had never accused her of being alarmist or violating her Hippocratic oath.

I rarely post on any forums but this just really bugged me.  I probably need therapy! :-)

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Denial is a coping mechanism. Almost all deniers will come around in their own time. It's very much just that they need more time to make sense of what is happening. Some people can't process things as quickly, especially if they have never experienced something entirely outside their control that will actually have real impact on their life. Don't be too hard on those people. Think of it as a kind of psychic shock that they need to process. And if you are a person that went into denial, don't knock yourself for it. There are other changes that you would process much faster than other people. It just is what it is, innit?

[Boofinator]

And what makes you think we are less vulnerable than Milan or Iran??? This is illogical thinking.

I did not say we are less vulnerable than those places. I stated that we are not there. That's factual. FUD is the problem. People freaking out is the problem. It's illogical to freak out.

If CNN reported the statistics for the seasonal flu as a new Dos Equis virus people would be losing their minds and clamouring to get the vaccine. But, we are inured to it so nobody cares and lots of vaccine is sitting on the shelves. The difference is not based on facts it's based on FUD.

It's logical to take reasonable precautions, which in this case is do nothing unusual beyond not travelling to a place with a high concentration of infections. If the logical course of action is not to do anything radical than trying to stem the tide of FUD makes a lot of sense to me.

In the vein of the last few posts, could we retire the concept of 'FUD'? Some time ago, it actually had meaning, specifically in referring to disinformation spread by groups with a vested interest in the opposing viewpoint. Now, it is a cheap insult used to apply to any information one might disagree with.

[NewPerspective]

And what makes you think we are less vulnerable than Milan or Iran??? This is illogical thinking.

I did not say we are less vulnerable than those places. I stated that we are not there. That's factual. FUD is the problem. People freaking out is the problem. It's illogical to freak out.

If CNN reported the statistics for the seasonal flu as a new Dos Equis virus people would be losing their minds and clamouring to get the vaccine. But, we are inured to it so nobody cares and lots of vaccine is sitting on the shelves. The difference is not based on facts it's based on FUD.

It's logical to take reasonable precautions, which in this case is do nothing unusual beyond not travelling to a place with a high concentration of infections. If the logical course of action is not to do anything radical than trying to stem the tide of FUD makes a lot of sense to me.

In the vein of the last few posts, could we retire the concept of 'FUD'? Some time ago, it actually had meaning, specifically in referring to disinformation spread by groups with a vested interest in the opposing viewpoint. Now, it is a cheap insult used to apply to any information one might disagree with.

I was wondering what FUD means. (It has been a long time since I've visited the forums, I'm rusty).

[Taran Wanderer]

In our family, FUD means Friends Under Development.  You know, like acquaintances that you want to turn into close friends.

[mistymoney]

Denial is a coping mechanism. Almost all deniers will come around in their own time. It's very much just that they need more time to make sense of what is happening. Some people can't process things as quickly, especially if they have never experienced something entirely outside their control that will actually have real impact on their life. Don't be too hard on those people. Think of it as a kind of psychic shock that they need to process. And if you are a person that went into denial, don't knock yourself for it. There are other changes that you would process much faster than other people. It just is what it is, innit?

And that's fine. It could have been a just a discussion with two viewpoints - but it wasn't. IMO - several of the posters needed to start a different thread and they could have laughed their asses off at those of us who wanted to prepare - just in case, you know, we ended up right where we are now. There was no need to literally dog someone on their own thread and multiple posters tearing apart their every post senselessly. I wished I'd said more at the time. It was bullying.

Dragging someone's non-existent mental health issues into the conversation? Repeatedly? Because you disagree with them? That really crossed a line, honestly.  But it's understandable - because someone didn't like her Tone.

That frugaldrummer turned out to be correct is actually besides the point. If she was wrong, if she was alarmist, exaggerating, mistaken, etc. - many posts would still cross a line.

The excuse was they needed to intervene and "correct" the statements, that somehow frugaldrummer was going to be "responsible" for something. She was harming, she was part of the problem. Responsible for what? 400 internet strangers across the world running out and buying 10 loaves of bread and a year's supply of toilet paper and pinto beans?

yeah - that needed to be stopped. At all costs!!

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Denial is a coping mechanism. Almost all deniers will come around in their own time. It's very much just that they need more time to make sense of what is happening. Some people can't process things as quickly, especially if they have never experienced something entirely outside their control that will actually have real impact on their life. Don't be too hard on those people. Think of it as a kind of psychic shock that they need to process. And if you are a person that went into denial, don't knock yourself for it. There are other changes that you would process much faster than other people. It just is what it is, innit?

And that's fine. It could have been a just a discussion with two viewpoints - but it wasn't. IMO - several of the posters needed to start a different thread and they could have laughed their asses off at those of us who wanted to prepare - just in case, you know, we ended up right where we are now. There was no need to literally dog someone on their own thread and multiple posters tearing apart their every post senselessly. I wished I'd said more at the time. It was bullying.

Dragging someone's non-existent mental health issues into the conversation? Repeatedly? Because you disagree with them? That really crossed a line, honestly.  But it's understandable - because someone didn't like her Tone.

That frugaldrummer turned out to be correct is actually besides the point. If she was wrong, if she was alarmist, exaggerating, mistaken, etc. - many posts would still cross a line.

The excuse was they needed to intervene and "correct" the statements, that somehow frugaldrummer was going to be "responsible" for something. She was harming, she was part of the problem. Responsible for what? 400 internet strangers across the world running out and buying 10 loaves of bread and a year's supply of toilet paper and pinto beans?

yeah - that needed to be stopped. At all costs!!

I agree with you. I'm just trying to understand the nay-sayers. It's kind of the fate of the whistleblower to get this kind of reaction, as stupid as that is. And some people are born whistleblowers, because they feel a responsibility to let others know what is going on. The reaction would not and did not stop frugaldrummer, and maybe that's more important than the fact there was a reaction?

[TomTX]

So, on getting back on track rather than following the recriminations:

Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenished the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for gardening.

Frankly, risk is still relatively low in Texas. At some point, I won't be going out at all even with precautions. I want to still be well supplied at that point.

[mistymoney]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2020/03/22/julie-roginsky-former-fox-news-coronavirus-coverage-sot-rs-vpx.cnn

former fox news contributor calls networks actions on coronavirus worse than malpractice.

Did the poster here get any of their opinoins off of FOX? Will any of them contact FOX about the 'harm' 'part of the problem' they are?

[mistymoney]

So, on getting back on track: Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenish the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for garden.

ok - back on track! I will post no more about.....you know.

[Boofinator]

And what makes you think we are less vulnerable than Milan or Iran??? This is illogical thinking.

I did not say we are less vulnerable than those places. I stated that we are not there. That's factual. FUD is the problem. People freaking out is the problem. It's illogical to freak out.

If CNN reported the statistics for the seasonal flu as a new Dos Equis virus people would be losing their minds and clamouring to get the vaccine. But, we are inured to it so nobody cares and lots of vaccine is sitting on the shelves. The difference is not based on facts it's based on FUD.

It's logical to take reasonable precautions, which in this case is do nothing unusual beyond not travelling to a place with a high concentration of infections. If the logical course of action is not to do anything radical than trying to stem the tide of FUD makes a lot of sense to me.

In the vein of the last few posts, could we retire the concept of 'FUD'? Some time ago, it actually had meaning, specifically in referring to disinformation spread by groups with a vested interest in the opposing viewpoint. Now, it is a cheap insult used to apply to any information one might disagree with.

I was wondering what FUD means. (It has been a long time since I've visited the forums, I'm rusty).

FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Wikipedia has a good article on the background of the term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt. But bottom line, it used to actually mean underhanded marketing/propaganda tactics, rather than simply a viewpoint one disagrees with. There was absolutely zero evidence or even incentive for frugaldrummer to be promoting mass panic, so the use of the term repeatedly at the start of the thread was unnecessary and counterproductive, and hence it watered down what should be a powerful and rarely used term.

[NewPerspective]

So, on getting back on track rather than following the recriminations:

Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenished the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for gardening.

Frankly, risk is still relatively low in Texas. At some point, I won't be going out at all even with precautions. I want to still be well supplied at that point.

We've stocked up on dried beans, frozen veggies, etc.  I'm not worried about stores running out of things (at least not for long periods of time) but I'm trying to limit how often I need to go out.

I'm in Texas too. I'm not sure what to think really.  The university where I work had one of the first confirmed cases but it doesn't seem like the number of cases has risen drastically in the last few weeks.

[NewPerspective]

And what makes you think we are less vulnerable than Milan or Iran??? This is illogical thinking.

I did not say we are less vulnerable than those places. I stated that we are not there. That's factual. FUD is the problem. People freaking out is the problem. It's illogical to freak out.

If CNN reported the statistics for the seasonal flu as a new Dos Equis virus people would be losing their minds and clamouring to get the vaccine. But, we are inured to it so nobody cares and lots of vaccine is sitting on the shelves. The difference is not based on facts it's based on FUD.

It's logical to take reasonable precautions, which in this case is do nothing unusual beyond not travelling to a place with a high concentration of infections. If the logical course of action is not to do anything radical than trying to stem the tide of FUD makes a lot of sense to me.

In the vein of the last few posts, could we retire the concept of 'FUD'? Some time ago, it actually had meaning, specifically in referring to disinformation spread by groups with a vested interest in the opposing viewpoint. Now, it is a cheap insult used to apply to any information one might disagree with.

I was wondering what FUD means. (It has been a long time since I've visited the forums, I'm rusty).

FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. Wikipedia has a good article on the background of the term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt. But bottom line, it used to actually mean underhanded marketing/propaganda tactics, rather than simply a viewpoint one disagrees with. There was absolutely zero evidence or even incentive for frugaldrummer to be promoting mass panic, so the use of the term repeatedly at the start of the thread was unnecessary and counterproductive, and hence it watered down what should be a powerful and rarely used term.

Thank you for the information! I had never seen that term. No it didn't seem to apply in this situation at all.

[GuitarStv]

So, on getting back on track rather than following the recriminations:

Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenished the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for gardening.

Frankly, risk is still relatively low in Texas. At some point, I won't be going out at all even with precautions. I want to still be well supplied at that point.

We've stocked up on dried beans, frozen veggies, etc.  I'm not worried about stores running out of things (at least not for long periods of time) but I'm trying to limit how often I need to go out.

I'm in Texas too. I'm not sure what to think really.  The university where I work had one of the first confirmed cases but it doesn't seem like the number of cases has risen drastically in the last few weeks.

I'm on the fence about whether or not we should keep going out to get groceries now for when things get crazy bad in the future . . . or if we should stay in eating the supplies we have.

[NewPerspective]

So, on getting back on track rather than following the recriminations:

Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenished the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for gardening.

Frankly, risk is still relatively low in Texas. At some point, I won't be going out at all even with precautions. I want to still be well supplied at that point.

We've stocked up on dried beans, frozen veggies, etc.  I'm not worried about stores running out of things (at least not for long periods of time) but I'm trying to limit how often I need to go out.

I'm in Texas too. I'm not sure what to think really.  The university where I work had one of the first confirmed cases but it doesn't seem like the number of cases has risen drastically in the last few weeks.

I'm on the fence about whether or not we should keep going out to get groceries now for when things get crazy bad in the future . . . or if we should stay in eating the supplies we have.

Do you mean because you are worried the stores will be out of supplies or you are concerned about contracting the virus?

[ixtap]

So, on getting back on track rather than following the recriminations:

Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenished the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for gardening.

Frankly, risk is still relatively low in Texas. At some point, I won't be going out at all even with precautions. I want to still be well supplied at that point.

This was our day out, as well. We had planned on going tomorrow, but the weather changed our plans. We were down to half a bag of brussels sprouts on the fresh veggie front.

In CA, Costco sprays down all the carts with disinfectant as they bring them back from the parking lot (and they nearly follow folks out to the parking lot to bring them back), let them dry in the sun, then take a few in at a time and ask the customers to only touch their own cart from the disinfected ones inside. They let seniors in as they arrive, and let everyone else in in groups of ~20, asking that you keep your distance in line.

Our roommate, who is well stocked on water, stock and soups, is amazed at my ability to make bread. Just wait until she finds out I can make crackers, too!

[dodojojo]

Laundry and Corona Virus

Like some MMMers, I rarely use my dryer, preferring to air dry over my bathtub.  I'm in an apartment so outdoor drying isn't an option.

I'm edging back to using the dryer to ensure killing the virus in my clothes.  But I have clothes that do not well in the dryer or even need to be hand washed.  Is there a detergent I can use?  An additive?  I can't bleach my non-whites, right?  My routine is a few drops of tea tree oil with All detergent (Pure, no scent, etc) and vinegar in place of softer.

Sadly, I'm moving away from my previous cleaning regime--using reusable cleaning items and natural cleaners.  I usually use vinegar for most household cleaning tasks, but recently bought my first bottle of lysol and wipes.  I have always had bleach for the toilet and cat-related items.  I'm also using more paper towels.  I used to have one roll last months but now using a lot more to wipe things down.

And all the sanitizing cleaners set off my sinuses which of course is alarming.  I'm taking Allegra but it hasn't stopped the symptoms much. Every morning, I ask, "Are my sinuses irritated or is it something else..."

Ugh 2020 has been pretty sucky.

[GuitarStv]

So, on getting back on track rather than following the recriminations:

Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenished the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for gardening.

Frankly, risk is still relatively low in Texas. At some point, I won't be going out at all even with precautions. I want to still be well supplied at that point.

We've stocked up on dried beans, frozen veggies, etc.  I'm not worried about stores running out of things (at least not for long periods of time) but I'm trying to limit how often I need to go out.

I'm in Texas too. I'm not sure what to think really.  The university where I work had one of the first confirmed cases but it doesn't seem like the number of cases has risen drastically in the last few weeks.

I'm on the fence about whether or not we should keep going out to get groceries now for when things get crazy bad in the future . . . or if we should stay in eating the supplies we have.

Do you mean because you are worried the stores will be out of supplies or you are concerned about contracting the virus?

Virus.

The stores around here that have begun rationing have some supplies, but there's a lot of stuff that has been really hard to find (flour/yeast/TP) for the last couple weeks.  There will probably be something there in the future, albeit might not be what we would normally choose.

But I don't want to be in the grocery stores when this starts to really heat up.  If it hasn't already.

[TomTX]

So, on getting back on track: Went out today to get fresh fruits and vegetables, replenish the pantry (wore mask and gloves, maintained distance as best I could), also stocked up on garden seeds both for now and for fall planting, to supplement what we already planted. I need to go dig up another section for garden.

ok - back on track! I will post no more about.....you know.

I did expand on the post somewhat, then went outside and cleared the mulch around a tree stump, dug out the stump and hauled over some compost and the rest of my biochar (charcoal) I had been ageing/inoculating. Got too dark to dig it all in, so I put the tools away and cleaned up. It will be a nice little garden bed for some vegetables.

Next chores:
Put blocks along the back of the bed, turn it over
Plant
Break up the last batch of biochar and start ageing/inoculating process