Author Topic: Coronavirus preparedness  (Read 120964 times)

KBecks

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #700 on: March 19, 2020, 08:05:26 AM »
Every old person is different.  I know some very active 80+ year olds who are doing well and living independently.  Others slow down.  Some have dramatic slow downs, but it is important for them to have opportunities for care.  My mother in law (a nurse) advocated for her mom when she was in the hospital and tell the doctors that her mom had an active life and doing well before she got sick, so that the doctors would think of the sick 80 year old as having hope and a life to return to and not on a downward spiral.  She recovered and had several more years of doing well.

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #701 on: March 19, 2020, 08:35:39 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

erutio

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #702 on: March 19, 2020, 09:14:12 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

Hospice doesn't mean no care!  It just mean different goals of care.

So I'd at least like to be knocked out on something if I couldn't breath.

The above example is one of hospice care.  Emergency life-savings measures are meant to NOT knock you out.  Instead of morphine, you would be getting things like epinephrine and other meds to increase your heart rate

geekette

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #703 on: March 19, 2020, 10:26:10 AM »

Hospice doesn't mean no care!  It just mean different goals of care.

So I'd at least like to be knocked out on something if I couldn't breath.

The above example is one of hospice care.  Emergency life-savings measures are meant to NOT knock you out.  Instead of morphine, you would be getting things like epinephrine and other meds to increase your heart rate
My FIL was an example of great hospice care.  He had COPD.  They dropped in on him frequently, helped him with meds, chatted with him.  He lived about a year longer than expected, and only had a tough time the last couple weeks.  IIRC, he had oral morphine to take if he had trouble breathing (it wouldn't help his breathing, but it calms the panic of being unable).  His last 2-3 nights were in a hospice facility that looked like a very nice bedroom.

slappy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #704 on: March 19, 2020, 10:37:19 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #705 on: March 19, 2020, 10:43:12 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

It was not universal and no one used those actual words, but there was a definite backlash that hospice is giving up, you should fight to the end, etc. My ILs have this attitude. They get mad at the relatives who died in their 90's for giving up.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 11:11:28 AM by ixtap »

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #706 on: March 19, 2020, 10:47:24 AM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

I'm a hospice volunteer. My only response to "hospice is for losers" is "go fuck yourselves."

Boofinator

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #707 on: March 19, 2020, 11:02:10 AM »
Why is there so little mention of the economy on this thread?

I just read that several Bay Area counties are under orders to "shelter at home" for 3 weeks (if not longer).
I was surprised to learn that, among other things, "shelter at home" means not going to work (for those without the option to work from home and in industries deemed non-essential). Workers facing inevitable job losses were encouraged to apply for unemployment or disability.

I understand that it is all in effort to "flatten the curve," but what good is it for people not to go to their jobs if they can still go to the grocery store and bank? How much is it reducing viral spread, and at what price? Containment to the extent that it affects people's livelihoods seems like a terrible idea, but I must be missing something. "Flatten the curve" is about saving lives and keeping the health sector from being completely overwhelmed, right? But is there a point where the risks involved in containment outweigh the benefits?

If you think that the only people getting seriously ill and dying are over 80 with heart disease ie not you, you are sadly mistaken. This is a viral pandemic and one that we don't fully understand. You're bitching and moaning about livelihoods when the measures are to save lives. Including yours.

+1000

Not sure I understand all of the vitriol directed toward Luz's posts. Her questions appear to come from legitimate concerns, which I share as well. Clearly, there is an appropriate response based on the severity of the disease, and people are going to differ in opinion on the appropriateness of the response. I mean, by all appearances we are currently taking a more stringent response than was taken during the 1918 flu pandemic, which by all measures was a more deadly disease.

Even MMM was downplaying coronavirus not but a couple weeks ago, comparing the number of deaths at the time to traffic deaths (ignoring the fact the pandemics grow exponentially whereas traffic deaths do not). Didn't hear anyone tell him to "Piss off, troll." Another person downplaying the virus (as compared to the economic effects) is the quasi cult leader Elon Musk, who is essentially defying a lockdown in the Bay Area (yeah, I know he received an exemption after the fact) so as not to disrupt his business (whereas every other automaker in North America has shut down, in areas not as hard hit as the Bay Area).

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/covid-19-automakers-plant-shutdowns-coronavirus/

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-17/coronavirus-tesla-fremont-factory

Musk:
Quote
My frank opinion is that the harm from the coronavirus panic far exceeds that of the virus itself.... I will personally be at work, but thatís just me.

StashingAway

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #708 on: March 19, 2020, 11:46:46 AM »
In the US, my impression is overall we want to live forever so we deny, deny, deny. And when we DO die, its more often in a very nasty way. Why the heck is a 85 year old person getting aggressive chemo/radiation for cancer? I do not know, but it happens.

The nursing home NOT calling the ambulance would be considered neglect/abuse here. Even if it would be kinder.

In some of the areas it can be attributed to religion as well. Christianity emphasizes saving lives at all cost. Letting someone die peacefully when there are ways of keeping them alive raises questions about what can be considered killing or suicide. When eternity is at stake, it's best to not roll the dice, be miserable at the end, but preserve your purity than to risk hell!

slappy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #709 on: March 19, 2020, 01:07:11 PM »
People in intensive care tend to be on the younger side because many really elderly people choose to not get intensive care treatment.

Secondly it seems especially people with heart disease and diabetics are highly at risks, as well as older people because their immune systems are naturally less strong. So in a country with high obesity rates you're going to see many more serious cases than in countries with lower obesity rates.

Are you sure this is a universal thing? I heard somewhere (no clue about the source, but something relatively 'official' that in NL we are quite open to people discussing not wanting to be treated bc they expect to die soon anyway but I'm not sure if this is the case everywhere. It was given as one of the reasons our death rate was a bit higher than surrounding countries even at the beginning of the outbreak (so not related to hospital capacity like in Italy).

It is so untrue in the US that when we tried to get these discussions covered by Medicare, they were referred to as "death panels" and had to be withdrawn from consideration. There was a recent bogleheads discussion about hospice care, and half the responses were "don't give up, hospice is for losers!"

From what I've heard, the bogleheads forum can be pretty ridiculous, but wow! "Hospice is for losers" is really obnoxious.

It was not universal and no one used those actual words, but there was a definite backlash that hospice is giving up, you should fight to the end, etc. My ILs have this attitude. They get mad at the relatives who died in their 90's for giving up.

That sounds like a miserable way to live. :(

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #710 on: March 19, 2020, 01:52:15 PM »
People seem to be painting all Americans with this  "LIVE AT ALL COSTS!!11!" brush. 

DNRs (Do Not Resuscitate orders) are a fairly common thing among old or sick people.  I took care of my grandmother in her final months, and she utilized in-home hospice care.  They came twice a week, if I recall correctly, to help with hygiene and a few other matters, and twice when things got very bad, they came to help with pain management (and emotional comfort). 

It sounds like the "hospice is for quitters" attitude came from relatively younger people.  People who aren't facing that actual decision.  I suspect that some of their tones may change. 

So sure, there are people in the US (and I suspect other places) that want any treatment, no matter how invasive, to extend their life by any amount.  But there are plenty who don't. 


Metalcat

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #711 on: March 19, 2020, 02:02:35 PM »
Finally decided to stock up a bit today.

Grocery stores in my neighbourhood are still pretty well stocked. At my main grocery store there was no TP, pasta or canned corn (???), but I was able to find everything else I needed, even a giant bag of flour. The produce section was actually overstocked, I've never seen it so packed with veggies.

Bulk Barn was very well stocked and was only out of black beans and red lentils. Also, there was virtually no one there.
Did everyone just forget about Bulk Barn??? Is it because they don't sell TP?

As for TP, my Amazon subscription seems like it will be delivered monthly like normal, so should be good there.

I'm cooking up a storm of soups, stews, and curries, partly to prepare for ourselves, but also because half of the people living on my floor are very old seniors, so I want to have ready made meals on hand in case anyone needs it.

OtherJen

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #712 on: March 19, 2020, 02:16:09 PM »
Finally decided to stock up a bit today.

Grocery stores in my neighbourhood are still pretty well stocked. At my main grocery store there was no TP, pasta or canned corn (???), but I was able to find everything else I needed, even a giant bag of flour. The produce section was actually overstocked, I've never seen it so packed with veggies.

Bulk Barn was very well stocked and was only out of black beans and red lentils. Also, there was virtually no one there.
Did everyone just forget about Bulk Barn??? Is it because they don't sell TP?

People are mostly hitting the major supermarkets in my area. I didn't need to go in our local bulk food store on Tuesday, but it looked empty. The chain supermarket at the end of the shopping complex was packed.

I also had no problem getting any of the fresh produce that I wanted at the produce market, except russet potatoes. I think people aren't buying it because it can't sit in the pantry for weeks. Duh, that's the point; you buy it and eat it first or cook and freeze it.

Raenia

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #713 on: March 19, 2020, 02:17:24 PM »
Weirdly, the only thing on my list that the stores are out of here is eggs.  Two different trips to different stores, no eggs at all.  This was very disappointing, as I want to spend some of my extra time at home baking.  Apparently everyone else had the same idea!  We'll keep looking, but as I'm minimizing trips out of the house, I may just be unlucky this week.

Freedomin5

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #714 on: March 19, 2020, 02:33:39 PM »
Finally decided to stock up a bit today.

Grocery stores in my neighbourhood are still pretty well stocked. At my main grocery store there was no TP, pasta or canned corn (???), but I was able to find everything else I needed, even a giant bag of flour. The produce section was actually overstocked, I've never seen it so packed with veggies.

Bulk Barn was very well stocked and was only out of black beans and red lentils. Also, there was virtually no one there.
Did everyone just forget about Bulk Barn??? Is it because they don't sell TP?

As for TP, my Amazon subscription seems like it will be delivered monthly like normal, so should be good there.

I'm cooking up a storm of soups, stews, and curries, partly to prepare for ourselves, but also because half of the people living on my floor are very old seniors, so I want to have ready made meals on hand in case anyone needs it.

We went to Bulk Barn because Walmart and other grocery stores were out of flour and rice. It was actually a bit more expensive to buy from Bulk Barn for these staples.

Bulk Barn here was out of all purpose flour, though they still had lots of fancy flours. Sprouted wheat flour, anyone?

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #715 on: March 19, 2020, 02:34:24 PM »
Weirdly, the only thing on my list that the stores are out of here is eggs.  Two different trips to different stores, no eggs at all.  This was very disappointing, as I want to spend some of my extra time at home baking.  Apparently everyone else had the same idea!  We'll keep looking, but as I'm minimizing trips out of the house, I may just be unlucky this week.

Dear lord, we didn't even cut out eggs when we did a super elimination diet last year, because I have no idea how to feed my husband without eggs. He wouldn't let me cook his breakfast this morning because I only gave him two last time. He's already grouchy, I hope I don't have to take away his eggs.

BECABECA

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #716 on: March 19, 2020, 02:51:05 PM »
Weirdly, the only thing on my list that the stores are out of here is eggs.  Two different trips to different stores, no eggs at all.  This was very disappointing, as I want to spend some of my extra time at home baking.  Apparently everyone else had the same idea!  We'll keep looking, but as I'm minimizing trips out of the house, I may just be unlucky this week.

Dear lord, we didn't even cut out eggs when we did a super elimination diet last year, because I have no idea how to feed my husband without eggs. He wouldn't let me cook his breakfast this morning because I only gave him two last time. He's already grouchy, I hope I don't have to take away his eggs.

Spoiler alert: youíre going to have to take away his eggs. Eggs have been completely out here at every local store for the last week. And we donít even have a shelter in place order yet.

runbikerun

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #717 on: March 19, 2020, 03:12:51 PM »
Not sure I understand all of the vitriol directed toward Luz's posts.

I can't speak for others, but when a poster asks me for a citation for something that is top-of-the-page headline news on every serious newspaper in almost every country in the world, my patience starts to wear thin.

GreenSheep

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #718 on: March 19, 2020, 03:20:30 PM »
Has anyone else seen price increases for groceries?

A bulk grain company I've never ordered from, but whose email list I've been on for months (signed up for discounts then just never got around to ordering) has this to say in their newsletter and on their website, azurestandard.com:

"With all of this uncertainty, our suppliers are beginning to raise their prices as well.  We have run out of stock on many items and itís very apparent that when we restock those items, they will come to us at a higher price.  So, as a temporary measure, we have increased our prices on items that we anticipate will be restocked at a higher price.  We didnít want to have to do this, but we canít absorb the price increases for all of the orders that have locked into future ship dates, as we are anticipating we will be shipping higher-priced products once we are restocked."

Will other suppliers/companies do this? Will this be similar to the "temporary" increases in vanilla prices that still haven't come back down since the crop damage in Madagascar in 2017?

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #719 on: March 19, 2020, 04:51:09 PM »
I spent the day food prepping.  Browned a bunch of ground beef and onions, then ground turkey and froze it in individual bags.  Takes up less space and makes for quick, easy meals compared to freezing it uncooked.  Freezing smaller portions of chicken, a loaf of bread, etc. 


Boofinator

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #720 on: March 19, 2020, 05:49:24 PM »
Not sure I understand all of the vitriol directed toward Luz's posts.

I can't speak for others, but when a poster asks me for a citation for something that is top-of-the-page headline news on every serious newspaper in almost every country in the world, my patience starts to wear thin.

The poster simply asked whether the response being taken was appropriate in light of the economic implications. She is clearly not the only one taking this approach (as noted, Elon Musk is taking a similar approach, and not very many people are accusing him of trolling). I think perhaps the only thing Luz might have done better would have been to start a new thread on the topic, since it is fairly unrelated to coronavirus preparedness.

This is really a risk vs. reward question, and quite frankly it is not on every headline. If the choice were between "let 20% of those over 65 years old die" versus "let 10% of those over 65 years old die but endure a crippling ten-year depression", would your answer be similarly dismissive?

(For the record, I agree with social distancing and government stimulus where the economic implications are minimal, such as for restaurants and movie theaters. Industry shutdowns are where I'm having a difficult time convincing myself that social distancing is not doing more harm than good.)

ETA: This post I'm just now seeing appears to address exactly this question: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/how-long-can-we-wait-while-flattening-the-curve/?topicseen
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 05:57:07 PM by Boofinator »

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #721 on: March 19, 2020, 11:05:49 PM »
Not sure I understand all of the vitriol directed toward Luz's posts.

I can't speak for others, but when a poster asks me for a citation for something that is top-of-the-page headline news on every serious newspaper in almost every country in the world, my patience starts to wear thin.

The poster simply asked whether the response being taken was appropriate in light of the economic implications. She is clearly not the only one taking this approach (as noted, Elon Musk is taking a similar approach, and not very many people are accusing him of trolling). I think perhaps the only thing Luz might have done better would have been to start a new thread on the topic, since it is fairly unrelated to coronavirus preparedness.

This is really a risk vs. reward question, and quite frankly it is not on every headline. If the choice were between "let 20% of those over 65 years old die" versus "let 10% of those over 65 years old die but endure a crippling ten-year depression", would your answer be similarly dismissive?

(For the record, I agree with social distancing and government stimulus where the economic implications are minimal, such as for restaurants and movie theaters. Industry shutdowns are where I'm having a difficult time convincing myself that social distancing is not doing more harm than good.)

ETA: This post I'm just now seeing appears to address exactly this question: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/how-long-can-we-wait-while-flattening-the-curve/?topicseen

When I posted to this thread, it was the only Coronavirus thread on MMM I was aware of at the time. And I thought "preparedness" could include more than stocking up on food. I've since seen other posts having more of a macro discussion (including the link above).

There are plenty of headlines on the Coronavirus, but I think it's important to dig deeper and to base our information on what experts are actually saying, not on reporter's interpretations (always, always ask for citations, especially when something seems so obvious that no one appears to question it). I'm finding that headlines are not giving an accurate picture of what the best response might be. They make people scared, and while there should be a healthy dose of fear involved in all this, I think decision-making from a place of fear will result in poor decisions (emotions v logic). Your answer to my question was along the lines of: evidence from China suggests that lockdowns are the way to go. But experts from the WHO and John Hopkins are saying that lockdowns are not the end-all, and done alone, could actually be harmful. It's really in the testing and quarantines of the sick which help us understand the virus in order to ultimately get ahead of it.

I'm not advocating for a do-nothing approach. And I'm not saying that economics are more important than people's lives. I'm wondering if half-assed containment (self-enforced and without adequate testing and quarantine of the sick) is actually more harmful than helpful since it will cripple the economy while possibly having little effect on flattening the curve. We'd be left with a pandemic and economic collapse (including the instability that comes with that), which together would seem to be worse than either alone (though I understand that the pandemic itself will absolutely affect the economy).

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #722 on: March 20, 2020, 05:02:45 AM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

ender

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #723 on: March 20, 2020, 06:43:25 AM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

I'm not convinced on this.

The venn diagram of those most economically impacted and those most at risk healthwise from covid19 barely intersect.


mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #724 on: March 20, 2020, 07:19:13 AM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

I'm not convinced on this.

The venn diagram of those most economically impacted and those most at risk healthwise from covid19 barely intersect.

because no one has grandparents?

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #725 on: March 20, 2020, 07:40:21 AM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

I'm not convinced on this.

The venn diagram of those most economically impacted and those most at risk healthwise from covid19 barely intersect.

When you say 'most at risk healthwise' who are you talking about exactly?  Deaths only?

Even the 20 year olds category can get very sick from this.  Even of the ones who don't die, a percentage end up requiring hospitalization - with potential for permanent lung damage.  Things just get worse as the age bracket gets older.  That's a long term drain and expense for people.

And then you have the cost and impact of the funerals as they pile up.  I suppose we could save money by throwing grandma into a mass grave, but feel that this might be a less popular option than you would expect.

ender

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #726 on: March 20, 2020, 07:59:35 AM »
When you say 'most at risk healthwise' who are you talking about exactly?  Deaths only?

Even the 20 year olds category can get very sick from this.  Even of the ones who don't die, a percentage end up requiring hospitalization - with potential for permanent lung damage.  Things just get worse as the age bracket gets older.  That's a long term drain and expense for people.

And then you have the cost and impact of the funerals as they pile up.  I suppose we could save money by throwing grandma into a mass grave, but feel that this might be a less popular option than you would expect.

Yes, serious illness/death only.

I would also add that if someone has been laid off/fired, pain is clear and immediate. Figuring out how to pay for food or lights/water/utilities is raised significantly. The possibility of grandma dying is a lot more abstract in that situation, even if the risk is reasonably high. Or even the risk of that to them, too.

People are not great at analyzing risk in general let alone when it's a potential risk vs an immediate felt situation.

The average poster here probably has a year worth of emergency funds or even longer if SHTF really badly in investments. We can work remotely at a higher rate than the average person. Our industries are likely collectively easier to WFH than the general population.

I suspect for many/most people who are facing unemployment now, the immediate problem dwarfs future possibilities.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I find it a bit hard to believe though that many people who are facing a significant economic crisis right now (and will as long as these shutdowns sustain) will happily be willing to wrack up debt/etc for the sake of the rest of society facing a currently abstract yet serious risk.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #727 on: March 20, 2020, 08:10:39 AM »
Yes, serious illness/death only.

Where are you getting your serious illness stats from?

Luz

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #728 on: March 20, 2020, 01:36:45 PM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

But will it save a few lives? In Italy, they've been on lockdown for 10 days and there's no sign of change.
Contrast this with what South Korea's doing so far: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

"...Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. 'South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,' says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Koreaís success may hold lessons for other countriesóand also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.

Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitantsómore than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

South Koreaís experience shows that 'diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,' says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. 'Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,' she says."

The article goes on to mention that thus far, there are no reports of the Coronavirus among South Korean health care workers. And also that South Korea learned a few lessons from the MERS outbreak in 2015.

This issue is often posed as an either/or kind of thing (make the economic sacrifice or people's lives will be lost). But I'm wondering what the effects of a collapse would be on containing the virus? My concern is for social/political unrest when millions of people are no longer able to meet the basic needs of their families. And also with supply chain issues. Surely those issues will put as many, if not more lives at risk (by disrupting our ability to respond to viral spread and treat sick individuals)?

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #729 on: March 20, 2020, 02:10:11 PM »

Even MMM was downplaying coronavirus not but a couple weeks ago, comparing the number of deaths at the time to traffic deaths (ignoring the fact the pandemics grow exponentially whereas traffic deaths do not). Didn't hear anyone tell him to "Piss off, troll." Another person downplaying the virus (as compared to the economic effects) is the quasi cult leader Elon Musk, who is essentially defying a lockdown in the Bay Area (yeah, I know he received an exemption after the fact) so as not to disrupt his business (whereas every other automaker in North America has shut down, in areas not as hard hit as the Bay Area).

Not a fair comparison. Unlike Tesla, the other automakers had actual active cases in the factory, refused to shut down until there were multiple "wildcat strikes" (workers walking of en masse without Union support). 

Musk's comments were made when the official US Government opinion was still that the novel coronavirus was no big deal, and he changed his tune rather rapidly.

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #730 on: March 20, 2020, 02:13:59 PM »
Weirdly, the only thing on my list that the stores are out of here is eggs.  Two different trips to different stores, no eggs at all.  This was very disappointing, as I want to spend some of my extra time at home baking.  Apparently everyone else had the same idea!  We'll keep looking, but as I'm minimizing trips out of the house, I may just be unlucky this week.

Dear lord, we didn't even cut out eggs when we did a super elimination diet last year, because I have no idea how to feed my husband without eggs. He wouldn't let me cook his breakfast this morning because I only gave him two last time. He's already grouchy, I hope I don't have to take away his eggs.

Spoiler alert: youíre going to have to take away his eggs. Eggs have been completely out here at every local store for the last week. And we donít even have a shelter in place order yet.

There were a couple of pallets of eggs at Costco this morning. At least 5 pallets of milk. Plenty of lots of stuff, though there were noticeable shortages of some items (raw ground beef and raw hamburger patties, TP, paper towels). I'm now restocked on fresh fruits and veggies, though they're in a cooler in the garage for a day or two as a precaution. Yes, I took other precautions when going out.

GuitarStv

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #731 on: March 20, 2020, 03:00:59 PM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

But will it save a few lives?

This is an interesting question.  Certainly it saves lives if done quickly, at the beginning.  I think that (given the numbers we're seeing) the US may have waited too late.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #732 on: March 20, 2020, 03:24:55 PM »
I wish you the best of luck in the US. This will get very ugly.


Taran Wanderer

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #733 on: March 20, 2020, 03:31:40 PM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

But will it save a few lives? In Italy, they've been on lockdown for 10 days and there's no sign of change.

With onset of symptoms taking up to 14 days, Italy is unlikely to see the tide starting to turn until next week. It had to get worse by having the invisible cases rise to the surface before it could get better in Italy.

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #734 on: March 20, 2020, 03:32:11 PM »
I wish you the best of luck in the US. This will get very ugly.

I have a friend from my days in Texas who currently lives in France. One response to his update was "Sure am glad I live someplace with a 2nd amendment." So, we shall see how the stay home movement goes in Texas...

DaMa

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #735 on: March 20, 2020, 03:34:31 PM »
Here in metro Detroit, people are saying that got tested 5 or more days ago and still don't have results.  The first death was a man who lived in my city and there has been no information on where he went in the days before he went to the hospital.  Basically, what South Korea is doing is NOT being done here.

Eilonwy

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #736 on: March 20, 2020, 03:35:23 PM »
It seems like a lot of this argument is missing the point of "flattening the curve." The primary reason to do it is to reduce the impact on the health care system. This is something every single person should care about, even if they're completely self-interested. If the system is overwhelmed, there will be no one to help you if you get sick, no supplies, no way to protect you from catching coronavirus on top of whatever else is going on.

Even the healthiest person can get in an accident, or have their appendix burst.

habanero

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #737 on: March 20, 2020, 03:40:59 PM »
Here in metro Detroit, people are saying that got tested 5 or more days ago and still don't have results.  The first death was a man who lived in my city and there has been no information on where he went in the days before he went to the hospital.  Basically, what South Korea is doing is NOT being done here.

It varies a lot, checked the Numbers today. Norway (pop 5.4 mio) has tested the same total and currently does roughly twice as many tests per day as France (pop 63 MIO). 25 percent of tests in france are positive, 2-3 percent in Norway. Do the maths.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #738 on: March 20, 2020, 03:45:23 PM »
And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

TomTX

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #739 on: March 20, 2020, 05:06:11 PM »
I wish you the best of luck in the US. This will get very ugly.

I have a friend from my days in Texas who currently lives in France. One response to his update was "Sure am glad I live someplace with a 2nd amendment." So, we shall see how the stay home movement goes in Texas...

Here in the greater Austin area, a fuckload of people are staying home. Traffic has been WAY below normal levels. Far fewer people than normal in the nearby park, despite school being out for a week.

Boofinator

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #740 on: March 20, 2020, 05:12:25 PM »

Even MMM was downplaying coronavirus not but a couple weeks ago, comparing the number of deaths at the time to traffic deaths (ignoring the fact the pandemics grow exponentially whereas traffic deaths do not). Didn't hear anyone tell him to "Piss off, troll." Another person downplaying the virus (as compared to the economic effects) is the quasi cult leader Elon Musk, who is essentially defying a lockdown in the Bay Area (yeah, I know he received an exemption after the fact) so as not to disrupt his business (whereas every other automaker in North America has shut down, in areas not as hard hit as the Bay Area).

Not a fair comparison. Unlike Tesla, the other automakers had actual active cases in the factory, refused to shut down until there were multiple "wildcat strikes" (workers walking of en masse without Union support). 

Musk's comments were made when the official US Government opinion was still that the novel coronavirus was no big deal, and he changed his tune rather rapidly.

You're right, it's not a fair comparison. Tesla, smackdab in one of the hardest hit areas of the country, ignores a lockdown order far after even Trump said this is a big deal, while on the flipside of the coin the major automakers with multiple plants in areas that were not hit anywhere near as hard as the bay area acknowledged the issue and voluntarily shut down all operations. Plus, what kind of idiot looks at the numbers around the world (on March 6), looks at the closures and quarantines in the U.S., supposedly understands math, and says The coronavirus panic is dumb. (I'll ignore your comment that he was simply following the U.S. government lead, because he's not that big of an idiot.) I'll note that about half his recent tweets concern the coronavirus, which is not what one should be doing if they think something is dumb.

He's been a self-serving prick throughout this time, starting either with an ill-informed or evil comment about a very deadly disease, and most recently defying a lockdown order. Here's a few more of his transparent tweets (because like Donald Trump, I don't think Musk is an idiot):

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240707187229380608 Does he not know how to read a fucking graph?!?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240758710646878208 Holy fucking shit, kids are not "essentially immune". Does he even know the definition of immunity? Kids tend to present with milder symptoms, but that in no way makes them immune.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240479781990199296 I'm losing patience with this nonsense.

Note that these tweets are just from the last few days. If he wasn't actually doing good work in engineering, this guy's comments would make me think he follows Alex Jones.

better late

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #741 on: March 20, 2020, 05:30:13 PM »
And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

Sorry to hear this. Hoping her recovery is faster than anticipated.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #742 on: March 20, 2020, 07:14:38 PM »
And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

Sorry to hear this. Hoping her recovery is faster than anticipated.

Thanks.  At least her husband is in self-isolation with her, so she has someone looking after her.

Villanelle

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #743 on: March 20, 2020, 08:34:54 PM »
Dh has a coworker whose wife is sick.  I'm not sure of the coworker is also having symptoms.  It's been over a week, I think, she they went the hospital.  They have been tested for everything *but* Corona.  All negative.  But for some reason, no Corona test is forthcoming. 

mistymoney

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #744 on: March 21, 2020, 08:50:47 AM »
And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

wishing her the speediest of recoveries!!

spartana

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #745 on: March 21, 2020, 09:54:37 AM »
And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

wishing her the speediest of recoveries!!
Ditto! Hope she gets better fast and that you are doing OK too.

Here in Calif we are now on full lock down via state government orders but still people are out and about and congregating in large groups for sports and recreation. Even many people I know. The lack of concern for others and selfishness is kind of shocking. Now if they were out trying to find TP then that's a different thing ;-). I'm get to g low but OK for now. Moving in with BF today and I'm hoping he is stocked up. Otherwise I could use more food too. The store shelves are fairly bare but there is still some stuff left. Lots of runs on things (and being this is 'Murica guns and ammo too) but mostly TP and all paper products.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 10:01:01 AM by spartana »

Boofinator

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #746 on: March 21, 2020, 11:43:43 AM »
Once the death tolls and infection rates start to rise due to not quarantining the economy's going to collapse anyway.  Might as well have it collapse and save a few lives.

This is a false dichotomy. There are numerous factors to consider to minimize the harm to public health and the economy.

Zamboni

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #747 on: March 21, 2020, 02:07:15 PM »
Dh has a coworker whose wife is sick.  I'm not sure of the coworker is also having symptoms.  It's been over a week, I think, she they went the hospital.  They have been tested for everything *but* Corona.  All negative.  But for some reason, no Corona test is forthcoming.

They may not have the test. We went in with symptoms (2 from my family), and the PA straight up told us that they were rationing the tests and can only test one person in the family. This is at an urgent associated with a major medical center in the US . . .

hops

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #748 on: March 21, 2020, 04:44:05 PM »
Glad we refill our meds in 90-day supplies as soon as possible, as Trump's causing a run on one that's essential for treatment of one of my conditions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-chloroquine-trump.html

ixtap

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Re: Coronavirus preparedness
« Reply #749 on: March 21, 2020, 05:14:50 PM »
And even the young get sick.  My DD has it, she is recovering but says her lungs are crap, she has no energy, it feels like recovering from pneumonia.  She is young and otherwise healthy, no underlying health issues.  She is going to need her 14 days self-quarantine off and maybe a bit more before she is ready to go back to work.  She will be going back to work, she is in an "essential services" job.

wishing her the speediest of recoveries!!
Ditto! Hope she gets better fast and that you are doing OK too.

Here in Calif we are now on full lock down via state government orders but still people are out and about and congregating in large groups for sports and recreation. Even many people I know. The lack of concern for others and selfishness is kind of shocking. Now if they were out trying to find TP then that's a different thing ;-). I'm get to g low but OK for now. Moving in with BF today and I'm hoping he is stocked up. Otherwise I could use more food too. The store shelves are fairly bare but there is still some stuff left. Lots of runs on things (and being this is 'Murica guns and ammo too) but mostly TP and all paper products.

We went to a quiet, out of the way park for our walk, but drive past a more popular one. Tons of people playing games and using the outdoor gym :(

If we end up with stricter controls, this is why.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!